Week 13 of the NFL season proved to be one the highest scoring weeks of the year with nine kickers reaching double-digits in fantasy points, including Ka’imi Fairbairn, with 21 points on five made field goals and two extra points against the Browns.
For the first time all season, four kickers ended the day with at least 15 fantasy points and two kickers, Fairbairn and Jason Myers, combined to make 10 field goals and three extra points. Both players have been featured numerous times this season based on their strong value as fantasy kickers because of their elite K Score.
Fairbairn enters the fantasy playoffs as the No. 1 kicker in fantasy despite going undrafted in nearly every league this summer, while Myers continues to benefit (No. 3 overall kicker) from a Jets defense that struggles in the red zone.
Thank you to everyone who followed this column throughout the season. Hopefully, some of the information that I provided helped teams make the playoffs, and I look forward to sharing my kicker research with you all in 2019. Here are a few widely available kickers who finished as a top-12 kicker Week 13.
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Aldrick Rosas (NYG) vs. Chicago: 16% ownership on Yahoo
Another week of NFL games and another top-five performance for Rosas, arguably the most underrated and underowned kicker in fantasy football this season. As owners continue to play well-known players like Adam Vinatieri, Mason Crosby, Graham Gano, and Matt Prater simply because they have name recognition, Rosas quietly continues to put up 10 or more fantasy points in each of the past four weeks with an ownership percentage of 16%.
Jason Myers (NYJ) vs. Arizona 11% ownership on Yahoo
The Titans boast the No. 1 red zone defense in the league and have been near the top for limiting red zone touchdowns all season long. Kickers who have faced the Titans have benefitted from this fact, including Myers of the Jets this past week, with five field goals and two extra points to finish as the No. 2 kicker of the week behind Fairbairn. Like Rosas, Myers continues to provide a solid floor of production for owners along with an elite ceiling due to the offensive deficiencies of their respective teams when it comes to scoring touchdowns.
Daniel Carlson (OAK) vs. Oakland: 2% ownership on Yahoo
For the second time in the last three weeks, Carlson made our list of stud performances from widely available kickers after scoring 12 fantasy points this week against the Chiefs. The overall ineptitude of the Oakland makes me hesitant to recommend using Carlson going forward in the playoffs. However, the kid is showing that he is capable of kicking in the NFL and may be a useful kicker in the next few years when the Raiders build a viable offense.
Week Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Wil Lutz (NO) @ Dallas: 98% ownership on Yahoo
Lutz entered the week as the No. 1 kicker in total fantasy points scored with six games of double-digit points and no game below six on the year. Like the owners of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and all of the other Saints skill position players, those poor souls (myself included) who own Lutz were burned with four fantasy points in a critical Week 13 matchup. I anticipate that Lutz will return to form this week against the Buccaneers, but there are also concerns that he could be a disappointment with only PATs as the Saints rebound against the Bucs.
Stephen Gostkowski (NE) vs. Minnesota: 97% ownership on Yahoo
Drafting Gostkowski a round or two before other kickers near the end of a fantasy draft has been a solid move in the past based on how many times the kicker for the Patriots has finished first or near the top of the standings over the past five seasons. Like a set it and forget it kicker, Gostkowski provided a massive floor with more PATs than any other kicker and the upside of playing for a coach who likes to run up the score.
2018 may have changed that logic, with the Patriots ranked seventh in total points scored — over 100 fewer than the Chiefs, and the Tom Brady-led New England offense that usually finishes in the top five in yards per game is down at seventh this season. The result is fewer field goal opportunities for Gostkowski and fewer PATs.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 4 | Greg Zuerlein | LAR | at CHI | -4.5 | 54 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 33 | 27F, 9MPH Wind |
| 2 | 1 | Wil Lutz | NO | at TB | -10 | 58 | 32 | 27 | 6 | 65 | 70F, Rain, 8 MPH Wind |
| 3 | 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. IND | -4.5 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 | Dome |
| 4 | 3 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE | at MIA | -10 | 48 | 16 | 20 | 7 | 43 | 81F, 16 MPH Wind |
| 5 | 5 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. BAL | -9 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 3 | 57 | 24F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 6 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at KC | 9 | 54 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 61 | 24F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 19 | Aldrick Rosas | NYG | at WAS | 1 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 21 | 32 | 38F, Light Rain, 9 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 7 | Michael Badgley | LAC | vs. CIN | -14.5 | 48 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 48 | 67F, Light Wind |
| 9 | 15 | Sebastian Janikowski | SEA | vs. MIN | -3.5 | 46 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 29 | TBD |
| 10 | 8 | Mason Crosby | GB | vs. ATL | -5.5 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 8 | 56 | 21F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 11 | 9 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at OAK | -13 | 52 | 14 | 31 | 4 | 49 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 12 | 20 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. DEN | 6 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 62F, Light Wind |
| 13 | 10 | Cody Parkey | CHI | vs. LAR | 4.5 | 54 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 65 | 27F, 9MPH Wind |
| 14 | 11 | Brett Maher | DAL | vs. PHI | -4 | 43 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 35 | Dome |
| 15 | 12 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at SF | -6 | 44 | 19 | 12 | 14 | 45 | 62F, Light Wind |
| 16 | 13 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at DAL | 4 | 43 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 33 | Dome |
| 17 | 14 | Matt Prater | DET | at ARI | -1 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 23 | 46 | Dome |
| 18 | 22 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at SEA | 3.5 | 46 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 35 | TBD |
| 19 | 23 | Josh Lambo | JAC | at TEN | 4.5 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 30 | 42F, Light Wind |
| 20 | 16 | Adam Vinatieri | IND | at HOU | 4.5 | 49 | 27 | 23 | 9 | 59 | Dome |
| 21 | 17 | Matt Bryant | ATL | at GB | 5.5 | 48 | 12 | 21 | 10 | 43 | 21F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 22 | 18 | Jason Myers | NYJ | at BUF | 35 | 39 | 28 | 0 | 30 | 58 | 30F, Light Wind |
| 23 | 21 | Cairo Santos | TB | vs. NO | 10 | 57 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 37 | 70F, Rain, 8 MPH Wind |
| 24 | 24 | Ryan Succop | TEN | vs. JAC | -4.5 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 28 | 49 | 42F, Light Wind |
| 25 | 25 | Graham Gano | CAR | at CLE | PK | 47 | 24 | 25 | 11 | 60 | 33F, Light Wind |
| 26 | 26 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. NYG | 1 | 43 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 46 | 38F, Light Rain, 9 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 27 | Steven Hauschka | BUF | vs. NYJ | 3.5 | 39 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 54 | 30F, Light Wind |
| 28 | 28 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. NE | 10 | 48 | 18 | 4 | 29 | 51 | 81F, 16 MPH Wind |
| 29 | 29 | Greg Joseph | CLE | vs. CAR | PK | 47 | 31 | 26 | 18 | 75 | 33F, Light Wind |
| 30 | 30 | Randy Bullock | CIN | at LAC | 14.5 | 48 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 61 | 67F, Light Wind |
| 31 | 31 | Zane Gonzalez | ARI | vs. DET | 1 | 42 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 82 | Dome |
| 32 | 32 | Daniel Carlson | OAK | vs. PIT | 13 | 52 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 45 | 58F, Light Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, score projections, weather conditions, the ability of their team’s offense to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome. Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 14.
Aldrick Rosas (NYG): 17% ownership on Yahoo
Rosas enters Week 14 on the heels of three consecutive double-digit performances, yet continues to be ranked outside the top 12 by the experts who comprise the FantasyPros ECR rankings. With a K Score of 32 and a downgrade of the Washington offense now that Mark Sanchez is running it, the metrics point to a strong performance for Rosas against a Redskins defense that ranks ninth in the red zone. The main concern here is the weather, as there is rain in the forecast and a light wind.
Sebastian Janikowski (SEA): 30% ownership on Yahoo
SeaBass missed out on posting a third straight strong performance by inexplicably missing two extra points in Seattle’s dominating win over the 49ers. Although there is a concern that the missed PATs could linger and affect Janikowski’s confidence, his K Score of 29 is too good to overlook. A home team with a bad red zone offense like the Seahawks going against a tough defense like the Vikings in a game that will not likely create a negative game script should give SeaBass a ton of opportunity.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Jason Myers (NYJ) vs. Tennessee: 11% Ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 27
My Rank: 12
Week 13 Finish: #2
Owners who took the leap of faith with me on Myers were rewarded with 19 fantasy points and most likely a win in their Week 13 matchup. While I did not anticipate five field goals and two extra points, the metrics of the K Score were screaming off the page for a big game for Myers. The Jets are the worst team in red zone efficiency playing against a Titans team that is first in stopping red zone touchdowns. The K Score proved to be right, and Myers was a stud.
Michael Badgley (LAC) @ Pittsburgh: 35% ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 10
Week 12 Finish: Tied #17
The K Score metrics for Badgley indicated a high probability for a good game against the Steelers, assuming that the rookie did not choke in playing in a nationally-televised game, and the Steelers did not run away with the game early. The latter proved to be right with the Steelers jumping out to a two-touchdown lead in the second half, but Badgley still came through with a decent floor of five points.
K Score Season Review
The use of kickers in fantasy football is a hot-button issue in the fantasy community with more than a few well-known fantasy analysts calling for websites like ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS to remove field goals from the game. The standard argument against using kickers is their perceived unpredictability and the fact that in many leagues points for field goals are too high relative to other skill position players.
I developed the K Score with the goal of identifying variables that help fantasy owners predict opportunities for kickers to score fantasy points. There are a number of unpredictable variables that can negate the effectiveness of the K Score, including bad snaps, fluke plays, and Mason Crosby-like meltdowns, but overall the first year of the Kicker Primer and K Score proved to be a success.
From Weeks 2-13, I recommended 24 players ranked outside of the top 12 ECR on our FantasyPros rankings based on favorable K Scores. Of those 24 kickers, 16 of them finished as a top-12 kicker for the week for a success rate of 66%. Nine of the 16 correct players ended as a top-five play for the week, and I was able to successfully choose either the first- or second-ranked kicker five times.
While not perfect, the K Score provides some clarity on discerning between weak and strong kicking matchups for owners looking to stream kickers on a weekly basis. My hope is that some of you followed my advice and made the playoffs using this information.
Waiver Wired
Top Add for Week 14 and the Playoffs
Aldrick Rosas (NYG) @ Washington: 17% ownership on Yahoo
Rosas has three excellent kicking matchups to end the season with games against Washington, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. If you are in need of a kicker who provides a solid floor and the upside of 10 or more points for your playoffs, Rosas is a must add in all formats. There are only a handful of kickers who I would rather start than Rosas, yet he is available in almost every league.
Others to Consider
- Josh Lambo (JAC) @ Tennessee 14% ownership on Yahoo
- Brett Maher (DAL) vs. Philadelphia: 20% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.