2019 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft (12 Teams)
Throughout the offseason, you will see plenty of mock drafts analyzed on this site. While the primary value of mock drafts isn’t realized until August, there is still something to be gained from conducting them at various times leading up to draft season. My first PPR mock draft was back in April. My second PPR mock draft was in late May. A month later, we have an even better idea of what players to target when and we can use the April and May mocks to see how player prices are changing while simultaneously creating a new baseline to measure price change over the coming months.
For this mock draft, I decided to go with the 10 spot. This is for a 12-team, PPR league with one QB, two WRs, two RBs, one TE, and one flex. I removed kickers and defenses because there just isn’t any value in including them.
1.10: Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
Immediately we can see a big shift in draft philosophy. In my previous two mocks, I took Davante Adams at 1.09. With the consensus top two wide receivers off the board, there is nothing to be gained by passing on my top-ranked running back, Joe Mixon.
If I wanted to go WR-WR, which is a viable strategy, then obviously I would have taken a wide receiver here. However, if I take the receiver here, I am risking Mixon not making it back to me in Round 2. I cannot justify that risk because I value the top four receivers relatively similarly. The only way I don’t get one of them is if 11 and 12 both go WR-WR. That is extremely unlikely so I will lock in the RB1 and prepare to take my top-ranked wideout on the comeback.
2.03: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
Well, that was close. Three of my four WR targets are gone, which, while worrisome watching it happen, makes life a bit easier for me at this pick as there is no decision to make — it is JuJu Smith-Schuster. I have him a notch above Mike Evans and Antonio Brown and am happy to secure him with this pick. It is well within his range of outcomes to lead the league in targets.
3.10: A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
I do not like doubling up on Bengals here, but I cannot pass up the value that is a potential WR1 as my WR2 in the late-third round. Green is on the wrong side of 30 and hasn’t been healthy in a couple years, but in the third round, every pick is going to have a downside. Green being here makes me glad I went running back in the first round as the backs available, specifically Derrick Henry, Marlon Mack, and Devonta Freeman, all have wide ranges of outcomes. While Green is certainly an injury risk, I have zero concerns about his performance when he is on the field. The same cannot be said about any of the running backs, so I went with the safer option that also has significant upside.
4.03: Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
It pains me to say anything nice about Henry, but I just can’t deny his volume and his role in the Titans’ offense. They tried the Dion Lewis as a primary back experiment and it didn’t work out. This is Henry’s backfield and he is as good of a bet as anyone to lead the league in carries. Henry profiles as a throwback two-down grinder with massive touchdown upside if the Titans can ascend to merely be an average offense. There are a bunch of WRs I like here and while I don’t expect any of them to make it back to me in Round 5, securing my RB2 is more important at this juncture.
5.10: O.J. Howard (TE – TB)
This is a bad spot for WR as it kind of falls in the middle between too late for the group that goes before and too early for the group that goes after. As such, I took Howard, the tight end that has the best shot at being this year’s George Kittle. Howard will be the third option in a high volume passing attack and profiles as a massive red zone target.
At tight end this year, I really only want Howard or Evan Engram in specifically Rounds 5 or 6, respectively. If I can’t get one of them, I will stream the position. This was the right spot for Howard so I pulled the trigger.
6.03: Christian Kirk (WR – ARI)
When picking at either of the ends (1-2-3/10-11-12), you have to think differently. This is too early for Kirk. However, next round will be too late. Kirk is my guy. I think he has legitimate WR1 upside in Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense. I have to have him. Therefore, I have to take him here.
7.10: Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
This worked out quite swimmingly. I was afraid Coleman would not make it back as he was my target. I was thrilled to see him remain on the board and gladly selected him over a number of running backs typically taken before him, such as Mark Ingram and James White.
There are a handful of safer running backs on the board, but I really don’t care about safety. Safety does not win me fantasy matchups — not in the seventh round. I believe Coleman will be the lead back in an underrated 49ers’ offense that will feature a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo and less competition than initially thought in the backfield. Jerick McKinnon may not be ready for Week 1 and Matt Breida is falling behind while out with a pectoral injury. Plus, the 49ers never wanted Breida to be the guy anyway.
8.03: Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR)
This was a very difficult decision because I really like Samuel, Keke Coutee, Latavius Murray, and Rashaad Penny. I knew that I could only have one of them. The other three were never making it back to me. I settled on a wide receiver because I already have three running backs and they are much easier to find over the course of a season, if necessary.
Breakout wideouts are usually drafted. Samuel is the WR2 on his team while Coutee is the WR3. I like them both, but Samuel’s elite athletic profile and status on his team put him over the top for me. I really don’t want to leave any drafts without Christian Kirk and Curtis Samuel, but I fear their ADPs may converge later this summer. For now, I can have my Kirk and eat it, too (that joke was terrible).
9.10: Latavius Murray (RB – NO)
Inexplicably, Murray made it back to me. This was an easy choice as his ADP makes no sense. He’s a more athletic Mark Ingram playing the same role that got Ingram typically drafted in the fourth round. It’s the ninth round. Give me the goal-line back in one of the league’s best offenses that is one Alvin Kamara injury away from being an RB1.
10.03: Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
It’s back to back Murrays for me here. I also refuse to leave drafts without Kyler Murray. This is another pick that will be impossible in a few weeks.
Murray’s ADP is going to shoot up to Round 7 or 8 and I will still take him. Fantasy drafters’ hit rates on mid-to-late round picks are not very high. Murray’s upside is the best player in fantasy football. I’ll take that gamble, and if I’m wrong, I can drop him and replace the production of a low-end QB1 by streaming.
11.10: DaeSean Hamilton (WR – DEN)
I like Hamilton’s odds to lead the Broncos in targets. What that ends up being worth depends upon the performance of Joe Flacco and, ultimately, Drew Lock (he will make starts this year). Hamilton is more of a floor player than a ceiling player, but I think he has a higher ceiling than given credit for if the Broncos’ QB play is better than expected.
12.03: Damien Harris (RB – NE)
I really prefer to backup my QB when taking an unknown like Kyler Murray, but I can’t pass up Harris here. If Murray fails, I can figure it out. If Sony Michel’s knee fails, I will be kicking myself if I passed up on Harris to take an insurance policy for my QB.
I think Harris might be a better player than Michel. Regardless, Michel is far from the pinnacle of health. If he goes down, it’s wheels up for Harris as a weekly RB2.
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Curtis Samuel, DaeSean Hamilton
TE: O.J. Howard