Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 5 (2019)

When deciding between competing options in DFS contests it is often helpful to look at Vegas odds for projected game scores. Give or take a point or two on the favorites, the projected score for a contest is the over/under total minus the point spread, divided by two. 

High totals are the most common guide DFS players utilize to decide between competing options when it comes to analyzing Vegas odds. However, large point spreads can also be very useful indicators of potential game flow. We will take a look at one contest with a high total and one with one of the largest point spreads of the weekend.

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Atlanta versus Houston features one of the highest totals of the games on the main slate. A 49 point total promises a lot of potential scoring. The -5 point spread suggests a negative game script for the Atlanta Falcons that may limit the rushing attempts for the Falcons backfield. Conversely, the positive projected game script could lead to a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde from the Texans.

At quarterback both Matt Ryan and Deshaun Watson appear to be great DFS options. A game with an implied score of 27-23 promises multiple touchdowns for both offenses. Watson should have his way with a decrepit Falcons secondary, while Matt Ryan will have his trio of receivers and emerging tight end to throw to. Unfortunately, Waston is priced appropriately for his upside and matchup. While Matt Ryan can claim the same at Yahoo, he looks like a steal at DraftKings, and like a potential bargain at FanDuel.

At tight end, the only player to consider from this contest is Austin Hooper. The number two fantasy tight end in points per game, Hooper has developed into Matt Ryan’s number two option on offense and should be in line for yet another big fantasy outing. Hooper’s 34 receptions since Week 14 of last season ranks fifth among all tight ends. The Texans have allowed the second-most receptions to tight ends over that same time period (51). The Falcons are going to be forced to air it out in this contest which could lead to a double-digit target afternoon for the young tight end. FanDuel has priced Hooper accordingly. Hooper looks like a steal at DraftKings.

At running back there are some upside options with low floors. The current line suggests that both Duke Johnson and Devonta Freeman may see game flow work against them. For the Texans, Carlos Hyde is the lead back, and the back that plays extensively when the team has the lead. Devonta Freeman has looked like he has yet to regain his pre-injury form, and may be of more use for DFS contests that award a full point per reception. Carlos Hyde, on the other hand, is projected to have the game flow to be a sneaky DFS play who could find the end zone. Hyde is potentially a strong salary based value at DraftKings.

At wide receiver, Deandre Hopkins is worth strong start consideration. His name has been more than his game lately, but he has a prime opportunity to right the ship against one of the worst secondaries in the league. With Kenny Stills banged up, Will Fuller could be in for a big game against Atlanta. The total for this contest suggests both Fuller and Hopkins should have ample opportunities to find the end zone. Fuller is still a boom or bust play but is well worth the gamble at his price tag across the board. On the Falcons there is only one wide receiver worth trusting and his name is Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley is no better than the fifth target some nights, and recently, he very strangely professed his difficulties beating zone coverage. Mohamed Sanu had an excellent Week 4, but could very well be the fifth target in Week 5.

This contest opened at -6.5 when it was believed Sam Darnold would make it back after the Jets Week 4 bye. When it was confirmed he would miss at least one more week the line skyrocketed to -13.5. This line suggests Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard should both have the game script to have big days. It also suggests that with the Jets projected to be trailing throughout that Le’Veon Bell may see his carry opportunities capped.

At quarterback, only Carson Wentz is worth considering. The projected game flow may limit Wentz’ passing yardage, and hoping for another sub 200 effort that includes three touchdowns may be asking for too much. Wentz is a high risk, high reward play for Week 5 at his current DFS salaries.

Running back presents the most attractive DFS options for this contest. Le’Veon Bell, as mentioned above may potentially see game flow limit his rushing attempts, but has the talent and the checkdown QB to lead the Jets in both targets and receptions. Bell is a pricey high upside, low floor option for Week 5. Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard could both be in for big nights against the Jets. Sanders has received more touches on the season, but it is Howard who has the higher yards per carry and the four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) to Sanders’ zero. Despite the plus matchup, Jordan Howard is still priced as a potential bargain at DraftKings. Miles Sanders is a potential steal at all three major DFS providers.

Robby Anderson has his first, and one of his only plus matchups of the season against a beat up Eagles secondary. The Jets are going to be forced to air it out, and Anderson could finally have his breakout game of the 2019 season. As expected, Anderson is still priced as a bargain across the board. With DeSean Jackson still on the mend and Nelson Agholor unable to catch a cold, Alshon Jeffrey could be a DFS value this week. He has averaged eight targets per contest, and has scored a touchdown in both of his games played this season. He projects to have a matchup advantage against a corner who has struggled with a 71.4 catch rate allowed in Trumaine Johnson. He is priced outside of the top 20 at both DraftKings and Yahoo.

At tight end, Zach Ertz is worth a weekly look. Ertz has yet to produce at a level on par with his Week 5 salary rank. His best finish on the season was the TE6, he is ranked as high as second and as low as fifth this week (Yahoo also includes Travis Kelce in the night game). While Ertz still has a high floor for a player at his position, he has yet to sniff his ceiling. Doing so in a contest where his team is expected to go run-heavy in the second half may not be matchup in which that changes. New York Jets tight end Chris Herndon is returning from suspension in Week 6, as the Jets have yet to play their fourth contest.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.