Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Tired of simple salary cap based DFS contests? Monkey Knife Fight has us covered with some exciting new offerings for the DFS community. At MKF you get to put your fantasy football knowledge to the test by making predictions on stat and fantasy point-based totals. There are touchdown, receiving yard, rushing yard, and passing yard prediction contests, player vs player point or stat based spread contests, and also our favorite, the over/under contests.
The over/under contests as mentioned, cover both fantasy point-based totals as well as the more traditional player prop like stat-based totals. Bringing this exciting element to the DFS arena allows DFS players to take advantage of the research they partake in throughout the week in preparation for their contests, and also allows traditional fantasy football players to do the same.
The over/under totals offered are dynamic. This means that the stat totals to make predictions, much like player projections, are changing throughout the week based on the most recent news available. This includes injury news, role changes, and personnel changes. This makes staying on top of Monkey Knife Fight’s offerings throughout the week a key element to being able to exploit the most advantageous lines. As you will see, aside from our play of the week, which our good friends at Monkey Knife Fight were gracious enough to lock in for FantasyPros readers, many of the combinations we provide below may not be offered anymore. One or two might, but there is also a chance each of the offerings has fundamentally changed.
This makes tuning in to this column on a weekly basis imperative for those who are looking for some certainty as far as it pertains to the contest offerings available. We combed through every over/under this week and have identified what appear to be the top plays. For those who have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE” and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and your new ones at Monkey Knife Fight.
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3x
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) over 106.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) over 80.5 rushing yards
Witness greatness. New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas in the midst of a historic season. On pace to smash the single-season receptions record, Thomas is also averaging 114.1 yards per game. Why this line was set so low when Thomas is averaging more yards per game than this number is confusing, but presents us an opportunity to take advantage of. Thomas has cleared the posted total in six of his 10 contests this season. Jalen Ramsey, Byron Jones, Marcus Peters, and Shaquill Griffin. Those are the corners that have been able to hold Thomas under the 106.5 receiving yard total.
The Carolina Panthers secondary is banged up, and have not been able to stop fantasy WR1s even when healthy. They have surrendered 104.28 receiving yards per game to wide receivers currently ranked as WR1’s. In the last two weeks, they have also relinquished a 118 receiving yard game to preseason WR1 Davante Adams, and 143 receiving yards to a top-20 type talent in Calvin Ridley.
Suffice it to say that going up against the Carolina Panthers secondary, even with James Bradberry as their top corner, represents a plus matchup for a WR1. Bradberry has been solid this season on the interception front, but according to Sports Info Solutions is suffering from the highest deserved catch rate of his career at 87.1. Bradberry has been a solid corner, but he is not someone opposing wide receivers fear like they do when facing the four corners listed above.
Thomas will be playing the Panthers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 12, a place he has been far superior playing at as opposed to on the road. Away from the Superdome, Thomas is averaging ‘just’ 95.4 receiving yards per game. At home? He is averaging an insane 132.8 receiving yards per contest. In fact, three of the four contests that he has failed to cross the 106.5 yard total in were played on the road. If this were a regular run of the mill player prop, this would be a smash play but would come with negative juice (meaning you would have to lay say $1.50 to win $1.00). Here at Monkey Knife Fight, you get a 3x multiplier by combining it with what looks like a very appealing Christian McCaffrey total.
My first thought at the Christian McCaffrey line was that it had to be an error. An 80.5 rushing yard total for a player averaging 105.9 rushing yards per game has to be a mistake right? McCaffrey has rushed for 93 rushing yards or more in seven of his 10 games this season. Two of the contests he failed to cross the total in were against a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive front who are currently third in the league with just 3.41 yards per carry against allowed. They spent time this season as the number one defense in that category. He also failed to clear the posted total last week against the Atlanta Falcons. After averaging 21.42 carries over his previous seven contests, McCaffrey saw just 14 carries against a Falcons defense allowing 3.98 yards per carry on the season. McCaffrey was running well at five yards per carry and just needed more carries to cross the 80.5 rushing yard barrier.
So why is the total for the McCaffrey prop so low? For starters, the New Orleans Saints have allowed just 61.6 rushing yards per game, and have held opposing running backs to just 3.69 yards per carry. And it is not like the Saints have not faced any top-level running backs this season. They held Ezekiel Elliott to 35 rushing yards, Chris Carson to 52 rushing yards, and Leonard Fournette to 72 rushing yards. Furthermore, as we saw last week, with Kyle Allen struggling to push the ball passed the line of scrimmage, he is content to call pass plays just to dump the ball off to his all-world running back. McCaffrey had just 14 carries last week, but also had 14 targets in the passing game.
With all that being said, the New Orleans Saints run defense has shown some vulnerability this season. They have allowed three teams to rush for over 100 yards this season. The backfields that were able to achieve this feat? The Houston Texans combination of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson eclipsed 140 yards on the ground at 7.37 yards per carry. The Los Angeles Rams duo of Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown crossed 100 combined rushing yards at 4.55 yards per carry the very next week. Finally, Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill combined for an inefficient 111 rushing yards at 3.58 yards per carry. This shows that the Saints can indeed be beat on the ground when the opposing backfield gets the requisite amount of carries. McCaffrey will likely need 18 carries to hit the 80.5 rushing yard total, a total that Carlos Hyde hit himself in Week 1.
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As mentioned above, we spent the week combing through the top player prop combinations and offerings before settling on our play of the day. As such, we have included other combinations for you to keep your eye out for. While some of the combinations or totals have already changed, these are the totals that presented the most surface appeal and are worth considering if your find the combination or total still available as is, or in another similarly appealing package. This was the week with arguably the most appealing over/under totals of the season.
3x
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) over 65.5 receiving yards
Chris Carson (RB – SEA) over 71.5 rushing yards
3x
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) over 68.5 receiving yards
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) over 66.5 rushing yards
3x
George Kittle (TE – SF) over 64.5 receiving yards
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) over 54.5 rushing yards
3x
Cole Beasley (WR – BUF) under 4.5 receptions
Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN) over 57.5 rushing yards
3x
Davante Adams (WR – GB) over 80.5 receiving yards
Tevin Coleman (RB – ATL) over 56.5 rushing yards
3x
Marvin Jones (WR – DET) over 54.5 receiving yards
Derrius Guice (RB – WAS) over 34.5 rushing yards
3x
D.J. Chark (WR – JAX) over 69.5 receiving yards
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) over 80.5 rushing yards
3x
Chris Conley (WR – JAX) over 46.5 receiving yards
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN) over 2.5 receptions
3x
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) over 97.5 rushing yards
Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA) under 36.5 receiving yards
Turn $5 into $1,000+ at Monkey Knife Fight this weekend!
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
