Ah, yes. The old “my Zero RB strategy is better than your Robust RB strategy” discourse that pops up in the fantasy community a few times per year is in season. Fantasy players and analysts alike have preferred strategies to give them the best chance to compete for a championship. Injuries, perceived market shares, and various factors contribute to the lack of consistency on a year-to-year basis, but analyzing the effectiveness of the previous year is crucial. “Zero RB” is just a fancy way to say “wide receiver heavy.” But was this strategy effective in 2020?

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Opportunity Cost

To truly analyze how effective a strategy was, it’s important to consider opportunity cost (e.g., if Billy Bob drafts Player A, he misses the opportunity to benefit from drafting Player Z). Obviously, the opportunity cost of going wide receiver heavy is missing out on top-end running back production. In 2020, that was a fairly-easily stomached cost, at least in the first round. The top running backs in 2020 ADP (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) went down with injury and combined to play in just 5 total games. Ezekiel Elliott saw his efficiency and touchdown upside nosedive upon the Dak Prescott injury in Week 5. Meanwhile, in PPR leagues, drafting Davante Adams in the first round resulted in more points per game than every quarterback not named Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariota (who played one game). Of course, Michael Thomas, the WR1 in 2020 ADP, faced similar issues to the aforementioned running backs. The same can be said of a couple of 2nd-round ADP receivers in Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay. Starting a WR-heavy draft with Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr. in Rounds 1-3 was punching a ticket to your league’s Toilet Bowl. Starting a WR-heavy draft with Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans likely resulted in a playoff berth, no matter who was slotted in the running back slots on a week-to-week basis. But was it enough to win a championship? 4th-round ADP running backs consisted of:

• James Conner (RB19)
• Leonard Fournette (RB20)
• Melvin Gordon III (RB21)
• Mark Ingram II (RB22)
• Le’Veon Bell (RB23)
• Raheem Mostert (RB24)

Here is that group’s overall finish in PPR:

• James Conner (RB27)
• Leonard Fournette (RB35)
• Melvin Gordon III (RB14)
• Mark Ingram II (RB77)
• Le’Veon Bell (RB63)
• Raheem Mostert (RB48)

Not a great return, but not all hope was lost. Going wide receiver heavy inherently runs the risk of missing on mid-to-late round running backs. But drafting the latter trio of Adams, Hopkins, and Evans and then following that up with AJ Brown, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, or DK Metcalf in the 4th round and David Montgomery or Kareem Hunt in the 5th resulted in incredible positional advantage and likely made that fantasy manager forget about losing out on Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara. Additionally, seven of the top 24 running backs (29%) in overall 2020 finish were drafted in the 5th round or later. This would indicate a good chance that those who went wide receiver heavy were content with their decision.

Value-Based Analysis

Another way to analyze if a strategy is successful would be to look at the value discrepancy between all positions in those later rounds. For example, CeeDee Lamb was drafted as WR38 in 2020. CeeDee Lamb finished WR22 overall in 2020. With that information, it can be deduced that a wide receiver heavy strategy (that likely saw such teams missing out on guys like CeeDee Lamb) contributed to lost value. There are tons of other examples of late-round wide receivers outperforming their ADP:

• Justin Jefferson
  • ADP: WR48
  • Finish: WR6
• Robby Anderson
  • ADP: WR56
  • Finish: WR19
• Curtis Samuel
  • ADP: WR62
  • Finish: WR24

Meanwhile, the discrepancy in highly-drafted running back production and late-round running back production was apparent. The other side of the 29% mentioned above is, of course, 71% of RB1s and 2s coming out of the first four rounds. So that must mean that a WR-heavy strategy failed, right? Perhaps. 13 of the top 24 wideouts, or 54%, had an ADP of 5th round or later. Value plays were abundant for wide receivers.

Did the Strategy Work?

The answer to this question comes with a question: was Davante Adams the first pick? If the answer is no, then it’s safe to say that results were probably not ideal for teams that chose a wide receiver-heavy approach. Can this be applied to future years? Not necessarily. Justin Jefferson hitting with an ADP in the 10th round isn’t a commonality. Taking current ADP, that would mean that Cole Beasley, Corey Davis, or Henry Ruggs III would have to finish within the top-12. And while wide receiver heavy strategy isn’t completely ineffective if value plays hit at wide receiver, the chances of drafting a perfect team and hitting on multiple high-level running backs are slim. Can “WR Heavy” work in 2021? Absolutely. And assessing your risk threshold is crucial to deciding to do so. But if you put value into year-to-year consistency, other strategies may appeal to you in your fantasy football adventure.

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Christian Williams is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Christian, check out his archive and follow him @CWilliamsNFL