Every position in a fantasy football snake draft has its pros and cons. And picking in the middle of a draft might be my favorite spot in a redraft league.
Generally, a pick in the middle of the order protects you from exposure to a huge run on a position. It gives you a good opportunity to adapt quickly and find value during the draft.
Obviously, every year is different. And that’s why we do mock drafts all summer long – or at least I do. Using our DraftWizard, I’ll give you a glimpse of what drafting in the middle of the pack looks like. Here are the results of a 12-team, half-PPR, 1 QB mock draft with the sixth overall pick.
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Pick 1.6: Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
The top five tailbacks according to our Expert Consensus Rankings were off the board by the time I was on the clock. However, you’ll most likely be able to land a featured back in the first round with a middle pick. That’s how I prefer to start my drafts given the scarcity at the position.
This decision came down to Jones and Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG). If I had assurance that Barkley would be on the field Week 1, he would’ve been the choice. But his injury concerns were enough to go with Jones, who will be the featured back on what should be a really good Packers offense.
Pick 2.7: Antonio Gibson (RB – WSH)
Like I wrote earlier, picking in the middle requires being nimble and taking what the board gives you. I was originally planning to snag my WR1 with this pick, but I couldn’t resist passing up on Gibson, who has a ton of upside in his second season. Running back gets muddled quickly, and I feel great about landing Gibson as my RB2.
With only five receivers off the board, I’m confident I’ll find a strong WR1 with my next pick. And since I’m picking in the middle of the round, I likely won’t be exposed to a huge run on the position.
Pick 3.6: Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
Allen Robinson is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Why? Because he produces despite awful quarterback play throughout his career. He started his career with Blake Bortles (QB – FA), and he just put up consecutive 1,100-yard seasons despite having Mitchell Trubisky (QB – FA) under center for most of that time.
Now, Robinson will likely have to deal with Andy Dalton (QB – CHI) throwing him the ball. However, Robinson should still eat targets, and there’s hope that the Bears wise up and put rookie Justin Fields (QB – CHI) in sooner than later. Robinson’s a really safe WR1.
Pick 4.7: Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
I was faced with an interesting decision here, as Kupp and Robert Woods (WR – LAR) were both available. It’s super close, but I went with Kupp because I’m expecting touchdown regression for both players. Last year, Kupp hauled in a career-low three touchdowns, while Woods tied a career-high with six touchdowns. With Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) now under center, I expect Kupp to make some more noise in the end zone and give him the slight nod over Woods, who might have a safer floor.
Pick 5.6: Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
The amount of receiving upside still on the board is simply incredible. Rather than taking an uninspiring tailback like Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA) or Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE), I’d rather take my shot on a potential superstar pass catcher. Aiyuk could be that guy in 2021. He can work the field horizontally, is a wrecker with the ball in his hands, but has more vertical capabilities than his counterpart, Deebo Samuel (WR – SF).
San Francisco’s quarterback situation is unsettled right now, but I’m expecting Aiyuk to emerge as the WR1 of what could be a potent offense.
Pick 6.7: Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
It’s time to pivot back toward running back and balance out this roster. My choices at tailback were Williams, Chase Edmonds (RB – AZ), Damien Harris (RB – NE), and Raheem Mostert (RB – SF). While some of those guys might have safer floors, they don’t excite me. I’ll shoot for the upside in Williams and am willing to wait on him to hopefully emerge as Denver’s starter.
Williams is a highly productive thumper who runs hard despite being only 220 pounds. If he can run over NFL defenders, he could be a beast.
Pick 7.6: Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
Quarterback is drying up faster than a drop of water in the desert. I’m eyeing Matthew Stafford here. But using the FantasyPros Pick Predictor, I found out that there was a 65% chance Stafford would still be on the board in Round 8. So, I’m trusting the Pick Predictor and waiting at QB.
A lot of the tailbacks I mentioned in Round 6 were still on the board in Round 7. I opted for Gordon to lock up the Denver backfield as my RB3. I suspect Gordon will start the season but eventually cede touches to Williams. By landing Gordon, I’m protecting myself in case Williams struggles.
Pick 8.7: Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR – JAX)
The Pick Predictor was right! Stafford was on the board in Round 8. However, Pick Predictor gave me even better odds of landing Stafford later on, saying there was a less than 1% chance he would be taken between Rounds 8 and 9. The Predictor was right once, so I’m trusting it again.
Instead, I’m pivoting and taking a high-upside receiver in Shenault. The second-year pro is another horizontal weapon who runs like a running back with the ball in his hands. He needs to stay healthy and take another step, but I’m willing to bet on him as a Year 2 breakout, especially with Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) taking the helm in Jacksonville.
Pick 9.6: Michael Pittman (WR – IND)
Pick Predictor nailed it again! And the odds still suggest there’s virtually no chance Stafford gets taken. This is another benefit of picking in the middle of the draft.
So, once again I’m taking a second-year receiver I’m really high on. I loved Pittman coming out of USC, and he showed some flashes of being a strong possession receiver with the speed to stretch the field. The Carson Wentz (QB – IND) injury hurts, but I’m willing to take a shot on Pittman overcoming an adverse situation. He could be a stud in the making.
Pick 10.7: AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
The Pick Predictor isn’t changing its tune, saying there’s still no chance Stafford will be off the board. In Round 10, I’m snagging Jones’ handcuff in Dillon, who could have more of a role in the offense in his second season. At the very least, Dillon could be a factor on the goal line.
The wait for a QB continues!
Pick 11.6: Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Okay, it’s time to take Stafford. Pick Predictor said there was an 88% chance he’d be gone by my next pick, so it was time to act.
By now, you’ve probably heard enough of the Stafford hype, and I’m happy to buy into it in Round 11. So, I’m going to once more plug the value of the Pick Predictor. I started thinking about Stafford in Round 7 and managed to get him four rounds later while securing two handcuffs and two high-upside receivers.
You can’t beat that. I’d tip the Pick Predictor if it wasn’t an algorithm.
Pick 12.7: Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN)
No, I didn’t forget about the tight end! I just don’t care about it. If Travis Kelce (TE – KC) doesn’t fall outside of Round 2, I’m waiting, and waiting, and waiting. Why? Because the difference between the TE3 and TE10 just isn’t that great. It’s a mosh of mediocrity, and all I try to do is find a high upside option that can pop.
Smith could be that guy entering his third year. He showed some signs last year and now Kyle Rudolph (TE – NYG) is out of town. This could be the breakout season.
Pick 13.6: Darrel Williams (RB – KC)
With my last pick, I was trying to find a running back with a feasible chance of starting at some point this year. I settled on Williams, who the Chiefs trust as the backup behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC). If CEH doesn’t perform in year two or gets hurt, Williams will likely be the next man up.
Final Draft Grade: 89/100 (B+)
The Draft Wizard gave me a very favorable score, and I agree with it! I loved the balance I was able to establish picking in the middle of the draft. I’ve got two bell cow backs and believe I took a ton of upside shots at receiver. If my upside tickets pop, this team could be championship caliber.
What’d you think of my mock draft? Let me know on Twitter!
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.
