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How about that Chris Evans call last week? Even I couldn’t have predicted the 15-plus DraftKings points he scored last week — with an under one-percent ownership to boot, but if you played him with the right lineup, you probably did well. I don’t have a Chris Evans-type play this week, but one made me feel a little sick. So here are this week’s value picks…
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Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Matt Ryan (ATL) $5,700 @ MIA
The once-vaunted Dolphins’ pass defense from 2020 has somehow disappeared in 2021. The Dolphins are 26th in passing defense DVOA on the season (per FootballOutsiders.com) and are coming off a game where they allowed Trevor Lawrence to pass for over 300 yards. In addition, they are bottom 10 in points allowed to the QB position.
On the other hand, Matt Ryan is 58-for-87 for 625 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions over his last two games, ranking him as the sixth-best fantasy quarterback in that timeframe, averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game.
Honorable mention: Tua Tagoviloa (MIA) $5,550 vs. ATL
FanDuel
Joe Burrow (CIN) $7,200 @ BAL
The Ravens defense is good but not dominant as it has been in past years. They can be beaten through the air, as they rank middle of the pack in passing defense DVOA at 15th. They are very good at taking away a team’s No. 1 passing option, rankings fourth in that category. However, they struggle against a team’s second and third options ranking 17th and 18th, respectively (per FootballOutsiders.com). The Bengals have one of the better trios of wide receivers in the league between Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins.
The Bengals also remembered last week that Joe Mixon could catch passes out of the backfield, targeting him a season-high six times, with running back Chris Evans also getting three targets — including one that went for a touchdown. The Ravens are 29th in pass DVOA defense against running backs out of the backfield. Joe Burrow is very good at spreading the ball around to find the open receiver. He should have no problems picking this defense apart, as long as his offensive line can keep him upright.
Honorable mention: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) $7,100 vs ATL
Running Back
DraftKings
J.D. McKissic (WFT) $5,000 @ GB
McKissic had a career day in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, catching eight passes on ten targets for 65 yards and chipping in eight carries for 45 yards for 110 total yards. Antonio Gibson left last week’s game with an injury, and even though he came back into the game, he didn’t look the same, and the Football Team leaned on McKissic.
Gibson’s status for Week 7 is still questionable, having not practiced so far this week (thru Wednesday). Gibson’s status aside, the Packers’ offense gives this matchup a positive game script for McKissic as the Football Team figure to be down for most of this game — McKissic is the preferred back in those situations so far this season. The Packers are 24th in DVOA versus pass-catching running backs, and they are 30th against the run overall.
Miles Sanders (PHI) $5,100 @ LV
The Eagles started handing the ball off to Miles Sanders in the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and lo and behold, he broke off some chunk yardage plays against a run defense that does not give up rushing yards to anyone. Eagles’ fans and fantasy owners alike can only hope that this opened the coaching staff’s eyes and made them realize that one of their best players has had only 20 carries over their last three games — total!
I won’t go as far as to predict this is the “breakout” week for Miles Sanders, but if this is the breakout week for Miles Sanders, I’m going to tell everyone I predicted it.
Honorable mention: James Connor (ARI) $5,600 vs. HOU
FanDuel
Devontae Booker (NYG) $5,800 vs. CAR
Value running backs are much harder to find on FanDuel than on DraftKings due to the half PPR scoring. Booker at $5,800 represents the best value as he will get the majority of the workload against a Panthers defense ranked 18th against the run.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) $5,600 vs. NYJ
Stevenson isn’t a value as he a shot in the dark, but we all know Bill Belichick loves his situational running backs, and it looks like Stevenson might become the goal line back. Of course, at $5,600, he’d have to fall into the end zone more than once to pay off his salary, but against the Jets, that’s a bet I’d be willing to take.
Honorable mention: J.D. McKissic (WTF) $5,700 @ GB
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Rashod Bateman (BAL) $3,400 vs. CIN
Bateman played 65 percent of the snaps in Week 6, and, despite coach Harbaugh saying that Bateman would be eased into the offense, only Marquise Brown (74 percent) played more snaps among the wide receivers. The third player on that list, Devin Duvernay, played 11 fewer snaps than Bateman, and Bateman’s six targets tied him for the team lead with tight end Mark Andrews.
At $3,400, Bateman can quickly pay off his salary with yards and receptions, but he will also catch a touchdown with any luck.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) $5,600 vs. ATL
Waddle is coming off his best game like a Pro with ten catches on 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. Only the Chiefs and Jaguars have a worst pass DVOA defense than do the Falcons. We will need to pay attention to the trade rumors this surrounding Tua Tagovailoa, but as long as Tagovailoa is the quarterback this week, expect Waddle to be heavily targeted.
Honorable mention: Darnell Mooney (CHI) $4,600 @ TB
FanDuel
Dante Pettis (SF) $5,200 vs. CAR
This pick made me throw up in my mouth a little, but anytime a player gets 11 targets in a game, regardless of the game script or who was hurt, 11 targets is a lot. Pettis’ role will depend on who is available to play this week, with Darius Slayton, Kadaruis Toney, and Kenny Golladay all questionable. If two of those three are out, fire up Pettis, but make sure you’re within a short distance to the bathroom in case you get sick.
Rashod Bateman (BAL) $5,300 vs. CIN
See above
Honorable mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown $5,400 @ LAR
Tight End
DraftKings
O.J. Howard (TB) $3,400 vs. CHI
The cheap-chalk tight end isn’t a thing this week. There is no sure-fire $3k or under tight end that will get a ton of snaps as we’ve had in recent weeks. Enter O.J. Howard, coming off his biggest fantasy game since Week 9 of 2018! Double-check his status before plugging him in. As of Wednesday, he isn’t practicing, but it’s unknown why. If he is out, fire up Cameron Brate.
Honorable mention: C.J. Uzomah (CIN) $3,000 @ BAL
FanDuel
Robert Tonyan (GB) $5,100 vs. WFT
If there is any team to have a “get right” game against, it’s the Washington Football Team. When Tonyan was a fantasy stud in 2020, he was catching touchdowns — something he hasn’t done in 2021 — but the Football Team has given up the most red-zone passing attempts (44), the third-most red zone touchdown passes (10), and the second most end zone targets (18) (per FTNFantasy.com). Yes, you could also use this stat to support a massive game from Devante Adams, but I think there will be enough to go around for Tonyan to have a multi-touchdown game.
Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) $4,600 vs. CHI
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