One of the best parts of Thanksgiving is three NFL games to watch, but the NFL is not giving us much of a gift to open Thanksgiving. Tim Boyle and the Detroit Lions hosting Andy Dalton and the Chicago Bears are not exactly what I wanted to do to start the day. In terms of Thanksgiving Dinner, think of this as cream spinach. Your Thanksgiving will probably be better if you pass on this dish.
The second game is a better one with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. Unfortunately, the Raiders have lost three games in a row and they are not playing very good football. The Cowboys scored only three points against the Kansas City Chiefs last week and they are going to be without their two best wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. This game is like the stuffing, could be amazing, could be a little bit off. We just won’t know until we try the game and see how it turns out.
The last game is the Thanksgiving Turkey, the Buffalo Bills at the New Orleans Saints. The Bills are two games over .500 and the Saints are .500, but both are also coming off blowout losses. Even if the game is not the best matchup of Week 12, Josh Allen is playing in this game and he is one of the most entertaining players in the NFL. Even if the game does not live up to a game worthy of prime time, Allen should make that the best game of the day and the main course of Thanksgiving Day games.
As for your fantasy rosters, there are only two teams on bye this week, which is unusual for Thanksgiving Day, as we normally have a full slate of games. That was one of the changes that were made with the 17-game NFL schedule. I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving Holiday. Enjoy the games, enjoy the food, enjoy time with family, and enjoy not having the following players on your fantasy roster as you look to make a playoff push with just a few weeks in the fantasy football regular season.
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12- and 14-Team Leagues
Mike Davis (RB – ATL)
There has not been a lot to like about Davis most of this season. He is the 44th ranked fantasy running back with just 66.0 fantasy points in 10 games. He is averaging a meager 6.6 fantasy points per game. It has been worse the last three weeks. He has tallied only 7.7 fantasy points over his last three games, making him the 66th ranked fantasy running back.
Some of that is the game script, as the Falcons have lost their last two games by scores of 43-3 and 25-0. When a team is losing by that much, it is hard for running backs to see much work. However, last Thursday Night was very troubling for his fantasy outlook. He has been stuck in an RBBC with Cordarrelle Patterson most of the season, but Patterson did not play on Thursday Night Football due to an ankle sprain. That should have led to an increased workload for Davis.
Instead, Qadree Ollison led the way with nine carries for 34 yards. Keith Smith had three carries for eight yards. Davis was stuck behind both of them with just three carries for one yard. He also chipped in with three receptions on four targets for 20 yards in the passing game. Ellison and Smith combined for four targets, three receptions, and 11 yards, meaning he did not even secure the bulk of the passing work. Considering how little those players have been used this season and how close their usage was to Davis, it is not a good sign for Davis having fantasy value in future weeks.
I know that deeper leagues require you to look for running backs in situations that you would not normally seek out, but Davis has averaged only 3.2 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per reception on the season and he has found the end zone only twice in 10 games. At a certain point, he is an unproductive player that you can count on for 6-8 touches, even when Patterson is out. There is not much upside in this situation and I would look for just about any other option other than Davis at this point.
2021 Atlanta Falcons Backfield Touches – Last 5 Weeks
D'Ernest Johnson (RB - CLE)
Johnson had only five carries for 26 yards with Nick Chubb back in action and Kareem Hunt is very close to being back. Johnson just does not see enough work to warrant rostering when those guys are healthy. Their next three weeks see them face Baltimore with a bye week sandwiched in between. If Hunt is not back this week, he almost certainly will be in Week 14.
Unless you have Chubb and want to roster Johnson to protect yourself in case of a Chubb injury, it does not make much sense to burn the roster spot with Johnson at this point. Five carries are not enough to justify flex value and that workload will decrease further when Hunt is back in the fold.
Devontae Booker (RB -NYG)
This is a similar situation to Johnson, Booker has talent and fantasy viability, but only if Saquon Barkley is on the sideline with an injury. The Giants did not run the ball much on Monday Night football with 39 pass attempts to just 13 rushing attempts, but Barkley saw six carries for 25 yards to Booker's three carries for 15 yards. Barkley also saw six targets in the passing game to Booker's one target.
Booker will see the field with Barkley back, but probably to the tune of 5-7 carries and 2-3 targets per game. Unless it makes sense for you to roster Booker as a handcuff, he does not have any standalone value with Barkley back in the starting lineup.
David Johnson (RB - HOU)
Houston did not win thanks to any of their skill position players. That upset over the Titans happened because the Titans turned the ball over five times. No Texans player managed to gain more than 40 yards rushing or receiving and Johnson was inefficient with 13 carries for 18 yards and four targets, three receptions, and 16 yards receiving.
Usually, when a running back touches the ball 16 times, there is something to be excited about, but Rex Burkhead had 18 rushing attempts for 40 yards as well and neither of them found the end zone, as Tyrod Taylor scored both rushing touchdowns. There is not much upside if Taylor is going to steal touchdowns and Johnson is going to be splitting that many touches with Burkhead. In a more normal game script with the Texans behind most of the game, Johnson is probably looking at the normal 5-8 touches per game he normally sees and he is still off the fantasy radar.
Kenny Golladay (WR - NYG)
I thought Golladay may be able to salvage his season when he had seven targets, six receptions, and 116 yards against the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. He suffered an injury the following week and had only three targets and no receptions in that game. Since returning from injury, he had three targets, two receptions, and 28 yards against Las Vegas. On Monday Night Football, he had two targets, one reception, and 12 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Kadarius Toney is the best wide receiver on the Giants at this point. He had 12 targets, seven receptions, and 40 yards receiving on Monday Night Football. Those are not great numbers, but Toney was the featured wide receiver in this game. Darius Slayton (7), Barkley (6), and Evan Engram (5) all had more targets than Golladay. The Giants are a terrible offense and there is not enough offensive production for the fifth most targeted player in their offense to do anything. It is going to be even worse when Sterling Shepard comes back from his quad injury, that could happen this week. He is going to take more targets away from Golladay.
Golladay looks destined to go down as one of the worst free agency signings of all time. He signed a four-year deal worth $72 million and $40 million of that was in guaranteed money. Usually, teams will try to force the ball to a player making that much money to justify the contract, the Giants are not even doing that at this point. Unless your waiver wire is completely bare, I would look for other options.
Mecole Hardman (WR - KC)
Last year the excuse was that Sammy Watkins needed to be let go in free agency and Hardman would emerge in this offense. That has happened in 2021, Hardman is still not producing, and Byron Pringle has now emerged as a wide receiver with a similar role to Hardman. It just is not in the cards for Hardman ever emerging in Kansas City. He was a second-round pick and he should be ready to start and produce in his third year.
He plays with arguably the best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes II, and defenses have to scheme for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hardman has seven games where he has tallied less than 35 yards receiving and he has scored one touchdown on the season. Pringle is not fantasy viable either, but Pringle was an undrafted free agent and Hardman was a second-round pick. Hardman is not producing enough to justify being rostered in fantasy leagues. He is on the road to being on a new team in 2022, not fantasy stardom.
T.Y. Hilton (WR - IND)
This is an offense dominated by Jonathan Taylor and the running game. Taylor has 193 carries for 1,122 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns to go with 32 receptions for 322 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Taylor accounts for 1,444 yards from scrimmage or almost 35 percent of their offense. That does not leave much for the other players and Michael Pittman Jr.is the player that has emerged with the next biggest role. He has 59 touches for 760 yards and five touchdowns.
When two players account for over 53 percent of your yardage and 60 percent of your touchdowns scored, there is not anything left for the remaining players on the offense. Hilton has a dwindling role on this offense, he has seven targets, three receptions, and 31 yards over his last two games. Injuries and age have made him fantasy irrelevant and it makes little sense to roster him in an offense dominated by Taylor and the running game with Pittman Jr. as the main sidekick to Taylor, not Hilton.
Bryan Edwards (WR - LV)
Edwards is in a strange situation. Usually, when a player does not see a single target, he does so from the comfort of his team's bench or in sweatpants as an inactive player. Edwards played on 83 percent of the snaps and still managed to not see a single target. Edwards has now put up zero fantasy points in two of his last three games. That is too low of a floor to justify rostering him in fantasy football.
Justin Fields (QB - CHI)
Fields was only 4 for 11 with 79 yards passing and 23 yards rushing before he injured his ribs and was forced from the game. He had just three fantasy points in Week 11. Andy Dalton filled in and scored 16 fantasy points with 201 yards and two touchdowns. Due to the short week, Fields is not going to be able to play and Dalton will earn the start.
It will be interesting to see if Dalton plays a good game in Detroit, what the Bears do after that. Matt Nagy is trying to save his job and if the Bears win this game, they will be 4-7 with six games to go. He may try to go back to Dalton until they are eliminated from the playoffs. Regardless, with Fields not starting this week, he has barely been good enough to roster in leagues, much less occupy a bench spot while on the mend. I would find other options on the waiver wire.
Baker Mayfield (QB - CLE)
In his last five starts, Mayfield has 13, 10, 17, 6, and 10 fantasy points. If you cannot count on a quarterback to do much better than 10 fantasy points, there is not much upside to rostering him. The Ravens are a decent matchup, ranking 23rd against fantasy quarterbacks.
If you are not going to play him this week, he has a bye and the same matchup you are passing on this week in Week 14, when they host the Ravens coming out of the bye. He has been a player that puzzles me when it comes to him being rostered in 30.9 percent of ESPN.com leagues.
C.J. Uzomah (TE - CIN)
Uzomah looked like he was on the verge of a breakout campaign when he scored his fifth touchdown in four games back in Week 7 against Baltimore. The Bengals' tight end has five, four, and two fantasy points since Week 7. He is back to being a player that struggles to put up 35 yards receiving in a week.
Joe Burrow has not been as sharp the last three weeks as he was earlier in the season and until he starts playing better, there is not much of a role for Uzomah. Seeing he was available on the waiver wire earlier in the year, I would stop streaming him and look for other streaming options. He appears to have been someone with two outlier games more than a player with a consistent fantasy role.
Jonnu Smith (TE - TEN)
Smith is still rostered in 31.7 percent of ESPN.com leagues, which is amazing seeing he has topped 20-yards receiving only twice in his last six games and he has failed to find the end zone. Maybe he has some revenge against his former team this week, but the more likely outcome is he has two receptions for 20 yards and one rushing attempt for five yards against the Tennessee Titans.
Shallow Leagues
Mac Jones (QB - NE)
Jones is the textbook definition of the difference between a good NFL quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback. Jones has everything you are looking for on a team that has a great running game and a great defense. He is completing 70.2 percent of his throws. He has an interception percentage of only 2.3 percent. He has a sack percentage of only 5.9 percent. The Patriots are fifth in the league in third-down conversion percentage at 45.77 percent. They are tied for fifth in turnover differential at +6. He does what you want him to do, move the chains and make enough positive plays in the passing game for them to win.
None of that helps you in fantasy leagues. He averages only 230.9 passing yards per game and he has 14 touchdown passes in 11 games. He offers no value as a runner, with just 25 rushing attempts for 60 yards and no rushing touchdowns. He had a fantastic matchup against a Falcons team that was allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He finished that game with a 25-0 victory, but only 11 fantasy points.
Jones is receiving a lot of hype for his rookie season, and that is well deserved. He will be a fantasy viable player in future years once they have more weapons at wide receiver and he develops into a more polished quarterback. For now, he is not worth a roster spot in shallow leagues with those numbers. Streamers have to produce in good matchups and he just did not do enough against the Falcons to warrant trusting him in future good matchups.
Alex Collins (RB - SEA)
Collins has 35, 44, 41, and 46 yards rushing in his last four games and he has been the 39th, 50th, 41st, and 43rd ranked fantasy running back over the last four weeks. That may be enough to keep a roster spot in a deeper league, but in shallower leagues, he is only producing five fantasy points per week. There is not much upside for Collins in a Seahawks offense that is stuck in the mud. Seattle has scored 10, 31, 0, and 13 points in their last four games. This offense has been unable to find any consistency in either the running or the passing game.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR - JAC)
Jones is just the 58th ranked wide receiver over his last four games, tallying 21.3 fantasy points in those games or an average of 5.3 fantasy points per game. To put that in context, Devin Duvernay has played only three games in that timespan and he has 20.2 fantasy points or 6.7 fantasy points per game. There just is not enough zip in the Jaguars' passing game to warrant rostering any of their wide receivers other than Jamal Agnew. He is averaging 8.9 fantasy points over his last four games, which tells you everything you need to know about the Jaguars passing game this year.
Jared Cook (TE - LAC)
I am looking at the target trends with this decision, Cook has only 12 targets in his last three games, and his backup, Donald Parham Jr. has 10 targets in those same three games. The Chargers tight end split is approaching an even 50% split. In the first seven games of the season, Cook had 38 targets and Parham Jr. had nine targets. There is no doubt that Parham Jr.'s role is increasing and Cook is paying for that with less involvement in the offense. In shallower leagues, Cook is probably not worth rostering, unless there are very limited options on your waiver wire.
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