It’s February. You know what that means.
Baseball is right around the corner, and while we are year-round here at FantasyPros in our coverage, we are really getting you ready to dominate your draft and season with our daily content leading up to the first pitch of the season.
One of the cool features that we have here that we’ve really highlighted the past few years is our mock draft simulator. It’s really easy and quick to use, so check it out.
I used the simulator to put together a 10-team AL-only mock draft for categories, using traditional 5×5 scoring. I randomized the draft order, and I ended up with the seventh pick, which was not what I wanted, but it gave me a nice challenge. There is a clear top 5, so I could have gone in any direction.
I do want to note that with so many key players remaining unsigned, I felt that it would be most helpful to ignore the Freddie Freeman, Carlos Correa, and Clayton Kershaws of the world for this exercise.
You’ll see how my team ended up, and you can view a complete pick-by-pick breakdown of the entire draft here.
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For AL-only leagues, there is a pretty clear top five in whichever order you want to put them in – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., José Ramírez, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Bo Bichette. After that, the board is open. I was hoping one of them would slip through the cracks to me, but it didn’t happen. I opted to go with Luis Robert instead, who is my early AL MVP pick. I love the power and speed combo to set the table for my team.
Other players considered: Kyle Tucker, Whit Merrifield
2.4: Yordan Alvarez (OF/DH – HOU)
To be honest, I don’t love filling two outfield spots in a three-outfielder league so early, but I feel good about Robert’s speed in the first round that I wanted some massive power and high batting average in Round 2. Álvarez having outfield eligibility is a plus. I just have to focus on the other positions more going forward.
Other players considered: Tim Anderson, Matt Olson
Tim Anderson was on the board still, and it was so, so tempting to take him here. My weakness in drafts overall is fading closers too much. In regular drafts, I still fade them and refuse to invest early. But in AL-only leagues, there are few saves to be found. Going with Hendriks here gives me safety in the category with the top closer in the game. It’s a nice advantage to have and won’t force me to reach for a less-than-sure closer in the next round or two.
Other players considered: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiménez
Kevin Gausman, ace. The numbers are eerily similar to Gerrit Cole last season:
Gerrit Cole since 2020
3.12 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 33.2% K, 5.7% BB, Age 31, ADP 8
Kevin Gausman since 2020
3.00 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 30% K, 6.5% BB, Age 31, ADP 58
Cole > Gausman of course but it’s not by that much…
– kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) January 25, 2022
While the move to Toronto from San Francisco is a downgrade in ballpark, I’m buying the skill here.
Other players considered: Corey Seager, Adalberto Mondesí
5.7: Jorge Polanco (2B/SS – MIN)
Javy Báez and Carlos Correa were staring me in the face, but I’m happy with the Polanco pick, and the dual-eligibility gives me some draft flexibility moving forward. I’m fully buying the power gains.
Other players considered: Alek Manoah, Frankie Montas
I like to typically minimize risk in mono-leagues. It’s harder to recover with limited replacement options. That being said, I couldn’t pass up Witt here. I don’t expect struggles to happen for him out of the gate, and he reminds me a ton of Trevor Story. I’m fully in on him.
Other players considered: Carlos Rodón, Shane McClanahan
7.7: Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
Verlander is 38. He missed all of 2020 and 2021 after Tommy John. Yet, I feel better about him than I do a lot of pitchers this year. With the full recovery time, I’m expecting no limitations on Verlander, and he’s a safe bet to throw around 200 innings and a ton of strikeouts.
Other players considered: Lance McCullers, Chris Bassitt
I really wanted Anthony Rendon to fall to me here, because third base drops off fast. He went shortly after my Verlander pick, so I decided to go with another safe pitcher in Bassitt. I’m all about innings, ratios, and safety for my rotation in a mono-league.
Other players considered: Austin Meadows, Ty France
9.7: Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF – MIN)
I may be jumping in a little early on Kirilloff, but ADP is a guide, not the Bible. Kirilloff started breaking out in a major way last year before his wrist injury. He’s fully healed, and I think this is the year the full breakout happens as he’ll ascend to an early-round pick moving forward. The position flexibility is big, too.
Other players considered: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
10.4: Tarik Skubal (SP – DET)
If you look at my rotation foundation, I have a ton of high floor, good ceiling, safe options with Gausman, Verlander, and Bassitt. I can afford to take a shot on a young guy who I think has a chance to be a breakout arm this year in Skubal. If he blows up, I at least have the safety net of the other arms to fall back on.
Other players considered: Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres
11.7: Josh Donaldson (3B – MIN)
OK, I flirted enough with Donaldson. I’m going to take him here as third base is just so thin. I’m not expecting a healthy season, but he still hits the ball really hard. I’ll take the added power and he’ll give me top 10 AL-only value at the position when I pair him with a replacement for when he is hurt.
Other players considered: Scott Barlow, John Means
12.4: Andrew Benintendi (OF – KC)
The peripherals actually look good with Benintendi, but we are treating him like he’s dead in the water. I don’t think he’ll be what we dreamed he’d be after his rookie year, but .270 with 18 homers and 11 steals will play.
Other players considered: José Urquidy, Matt Barnes
13.7: Taylor Rogers (RP – MIN)
I really wanted Matt Barnes, so I kind of regret not taking him last round. I’m not sold on Rogers, but I sure am glad I took Hendriks when I did to give me an elite saves base.
Other players considered: Garrett Whitlock, Gregory Soto
14.4: Garrett Whitlock (RP – BOS)
I truly do believe that we are overrating Whitlock and that Barnes will end up with most of the saves in Boston. But at the same time, I’m surprised Whitlock is on the board still. Best case, I just drafted the Boston closer and can get 20 saves. Worst case, I get nice ratios and strikeouts.
Other players considered: Alejandro Kirk, Joe Barlow
15.7: Cavan Biggio (2B/3B/OF – TOR)
We knew that Biggio was going to regress in 2021. But I think the pendulum swung a little too far on him. He’s not going to have the power that he showed in 2020, but he has good on-base skills and can chip in with double-digit power and steals. Plus being eligible at three positions is a bonus.
Other players considered: Sean Murphy, Jameson Taillon
16.4: Max Stassi (C – LAA)
I treat catchers like closers. I fade them hard in regular leagues. But you have to adjust your approach based on the league settings. I still waited longer than expected on the position but I’m happy to get Stassi here.
Other players considered: Eric Haase, Abraham Toro
17.7: Josh Jung (3B – TEX)
I wish I waited longer on catcher. Toro went, which hurt. But then Drew Rasmussen went, which really hurt. And then Spencer Torkelson, who I missed when filling my queue, went, and everything hurts inside. If nothing else, I got a solid Donaldson replacement.
Other players considered: Andres Giménez, Nathaniel Lowe
18.4: Andrés Giménez (2B/SS – CLE)
I was positive that Giménez would have a clear path to playing time last year, but he didn’t. He also wasn’t good. I’m back in on him this year mainly for the stolen base upside. Let’s get a little post-hype action here.
Other players considered: Manuel Margot, Nathaniel Lowe
19.7: Vidal Bruján (2B – TB)
Speaking of bad, Bruján was really bad in his cup of coffee last year. It’s Tampa, so counting on regular playing time is tough, but he has elite speed and I kind of backed myself into a corner with needed to chase speed late.
Other players considered: Nestor Cortés, Manuel Margot
20.4: Nestor Cortés (SP – NYY)
We’re overlooking Cortés a bit this year. He doesn’t have an SP2 upside or anything, but he’s a solid SP4-5 to round out your staff.
Other players considered: Manuel Margot, Jarren Duran
21.7: Brandon Marsh (OF – LAA)
Marsh is another great post-hype sleeper to target in drafts. Need more reasons to believe?
Brandon Marsh is a great target this year.
MiLB: 295 G, .287 AVG, 11.4 BB%, 45 SB (80%)
2021: 10.9% Barrel, 92.1 mph AVG EV, 51.7% HH, .469 xwOBACON, 95th percentile sprint speed.
Need to increase FB% & trim GB%
Can be taken post-300 on both Fantrax & NFBC#FantasyBaseball
– Eric Cross (@EricCross04) February 1, 2022
Other players considered: Manuel Margot, Reid Detmers
22.4: Triston Casas (1B – BOS)
I wanted to take a fun player with my last pick, and I was between a few. I think Casas not only has the quickest ETA, but also the most immediate impact.
Other players considered: Gabriel Moreno, Julio Rodríguez
In all, I’m really happy and excited about this team if I were to play it out. The draft analyzer gave me a C (76/100) which feels low to me. I think it’s because I jumped ADP on a few guys who I have higher than the consensus. They projected me for eighth overall, which is just absurd. ADP matters less in AL-only and deeper leagues.
There were a few instances where I regret taking one player over the other player. Most notably, taking a catcher when I did caused me to miss out on some players I really, really wanted.
This team can compete, and there are few true risks on it. I’m betting on Witt hitting out of the gate. I’m expecting Robert to take a leap to an elite level, and I’m hoping that I compiled enough stolen bases late to help me stay in the middle of the pack.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
