It is hard to believe that the NFL season is almost over, Super Bowl Sunday is on February 13, 2022, and after that, there will be no football until the Hall of Fame Game this summer. That leaves us plenty of time to figure out what quarterbacks will be elite fantasy options in 2022 and there are a lot of events that are going to determine fantasy value between now and then. There is free agency, the NFL Draft, and the offseason programs that will change roster makeup and give some younger guys time to develop and improve their skills for the upcoming season.
Quarterback tends to be a fairly stable position for the teams that have an elite quarterback. Tom Brady has shown us that there is life well after 40-years old and many quarterbacks can play at a high level until they are in their late 30s. In 2020, the Top-12 fantasy quarterbacks were in total fantasy points scored were Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger. That is using only Week 1 through Week 16 statistics and taking out the Week 17 games, which are stats accumulated after most fantasy leagues end their season.
Check out our full early 2022 fantasy football draft consensus rankings 
2020 Top-12 Fantasy Quarterbacks (Week 1 through Week 16)
This year, five players did not make a return to the list, which I tallied using only Week 1 to Week 17 games. Watson was not active for any game this year due to a contract dispute with the Houston Texans and legal issues centered around 22 civil sexual assault lawsuits. Tannehill did not play as well this year, as Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and A.J. Brown all missed time with various injuries. He still finished 13th among fantasy quarterbacks. Jackson and Wilson missed several games with injuries. They still finished 14th and 19th among fantasy quarterbacks, respectively. Big Ben was not the same as he was in previous years with declining arm strength in the final year of his career. He fell to 21st among fantasy quarterbacks. The quarterbacks that took their places as QB1s were Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Derek Carr. They finished fifth, sixth, eighth, ninth, and 12th, respectively.
2021 Top-12 Fantasy Quarterbacks (Week 1 through Week 17)
As for 2022, I would be shocked if Allen, Mahomes II, Herbert, or Burrow fell very far outside of the Top-5. Mahomes II is the oldest of those quarterbacks and he is 27-years old in September. Unless one of those guys is injured or takes an unexpected decline, there is probably one spot to fill and that would be someone replacing Tom Brady, who turns 45-years old in August and recently announced his retirement from football. He has time to change his mind before the start of the regular season, but I would be very shocked if he did that.
We are probably looking at only one or two new quarterbacks making a run for the Top-5. I think the QBs in that QB1 tier that would be the top candidates to replace Brady would be Stafford, Prescott, or Murray. All three have had big fantasy seasons in the past and all three will be back with their teams looking to build on an impressive 2021 season. Rodgers would also have a shot, but we need to know who he is playing with and what the supporting case looks like before he can be billed as a likely Top-5 option.
There also could be some new faces that were not QB1 options in 2021. Here are some QB2s and QB3s from 2021 that I think could be players to watch make a run as a Top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Favorites
Deshaun Watson (QB - HOU) The only reason Watson was not in the QB1 discussion in 2021 is that he was inactive for 17 games. The Texans chose to pay him not to play the entire 2021 season and they did not deal him at the trade deadline. There are still going to be some issues with him switching teams in 2022. Will a team be willing to bring Watson onto their roster with 22 civil lawsuits filed that have allegations of sexual assault during massage sessions? Will Houston be willing to accept the compensation that they are offered for him? Will Watson agree to play for the new team that wants to trade for him? Will Watson play for the Texans if they cannot trade him? Will he be suspended for violations of the League's Personal Conduct Policy or will the games he sat this year count toward that punishment if there is any?
Until all those questions are answered, we are in a holding pattern where we cannot gauge his fantasy value. Watson was the fourth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2018, the fifth-ranked one in 2019, and the fifth-ranked one in 2020. He has the talent to be a Top-5 option and if he plays 17 games in 2022, even with a year away from the game.
Lamar Jackson (QB - BAL) Jackson showed what he was capable of in 2019 when he won the MVP of the league and recorded 421.68 fantasy points. He regressed in 2020 and finished with 341.78 fantasy points, which was 10th in the NFL. He slipped again this year, down to 14th with 252.98 fantasy points. The reason for the slip was injuries, he played only 12 games due to injury. However, even if you evaluate him on a per-game basis, he averaged 21.08 points per game in 2021, compared to 22.79 in 2020. He was a good fantasy quarterback this year, but still not Top-5 like he was in 2019.
Jackson just turned 25-years old this year, he still has a lot of good football ahead of him and he has made strides as a passer. The problem is that he is still is not a good enough passer to be a Top-5 fantasy option, unless he is also running the football. The older he becomes, the more injury risk there is with running the ball over 10 times per game. He has shown that when he can play 17 games and at a high level, he is capable of being the best fantasy quarterback in the game. He is a safe gamble to resume being a Top-5 fantasy option in 2022.
Russell Wilson (QB - SEA) I think he needs to leave Seattle to be in the mix. This is not a Matthew Stafford situation where the Seahawks have wasted the prime years of his career, but he also has not been a Top-5 fantasy QB at the end of 2020 or all of 2021. The offense has become stale there and he needs a change of scenery, otherwise, he is not likely to be a Top-5 fantasy quarterback.
What if he were to change locations though? Green Bay, Denver, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh could all be looking for new quarterbacks this offseason and if they pull the trade for Wilson, he could find new life with a new franchise similar to Stafford in 2021. Wilson does turn 34-years old this year and it remains to be seen if he is the same quarterback as he was a few years ago, but he has one of the best arms in the league and it does not feel like the Hawks have let Russ cook the last two seasons. If a new team lets him cook, maybe he comes back into the Top-5 mix.
Solid Gambles
Trey Lance (QB - SF) Lance started only two games this year. He tallied 15.6 fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. He tallied 20.1 fantasy points against the Houston Texans in Week 17. That is too small of a sample size to project anything for 2021. In the few games I watched him, he had the arm to make plays in the deep passing game and the legs to make exciting plays in the running game, but he lacked the poise and the polish to excel in the short passing game that is the bloodline of any passing offense in the NFL.
The 49ers may go with Jimmy Garoppolo for one more year, he did help take the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game. The smart money would be on Lance being the starter in 2022 and Garoppolo being traded this offseason. Garoppolo was only the 18th ranked fantasy quarterback with 15.34 fantasy points per game and his QB rating in his three playoff games was 67.4, 57.1, and 87.1. The 49ers averaged only 17.67 points per game in the postseason and one has to wonder if John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan can afford to sit the third pick in the draft that they traded a ton of capital to acquire. Lance running this offense with his deep passing ability and legs would be a Top-5 season waiting to happen, if he can develop more poise and polish in the short passing game.
Justin Fields (QB - CHI) We'll see how the Bears handle Fields in his second year, but Matt Nagy did not do a good job developing his rookie quarterback and he is now unemployed as a result. The first order of business for new head coach Matt Eberflus and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will be to figure out how to build an offense around Fields. While he was not great his rookie year, he did have 72 rushing attempts for 420 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games this year playing for a head coach that made him operate from the pocket too much. If the Bears play to his strengths, would it be inconceivable for him to be a QB1 in his second year with increased rushing production.
Jalen Hurts was a QB1 this year, thanks to his rushing numbers. He tallied 139 rushing attempts for 784 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Hurts had only 3,144 yards passing and 16 passing touchdowns, but he was the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback and just 7.08 fantasy points behind Burrow in the fifth spot. Hurts averaged more points per game (21.41 to 20.52) than Burrow but started only 15 games to Burrow's 16 games. If the Bears let Fields run more and they also develop him as a passer, he seems like a candidate to earn Top-5 fantasy status. The talent was obvious this year, they just need to harness it with an offense that plays to his strengths.
Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAX) Lawrence was considered a generational talent and sometimes it takes a lost rookie season before the lightbulb clicks and the production happens. I think Lawrence had a tough break playing for Urban Meyer, who was not cut out to be an NFL head coach. Doug Pederson as the head coach in 2022 should help Lawrence develop into a better quarterback in his sophomore campaign. Pederson played quarterback in the league and the Eagles drafted Carson Wentz with the second pick while Pederson was the head coach in Philadelphia. He has experience both playing the position and bringing along a high draft pick as a head coach.
The good news is the Jaguars have four picks in the Top-100 of the 2022 NFL Draft (First, 33rd, 65th, and 70th). They also have the 103rd pick, which is just outside the 100th. That is a potential five starters that they could add to the mix and they could trade down from the first pick if someone becomes thirsty for a quarterback and acquire even more valuable picks. Whether the front office can make the right personnel decisions is another discussion, but the Jaguars have the picks to improve the team if they use them properly. Travis Etienne was also a first-round pick in 2021 that never played due to a foot injury that should be back in 2022. If Pederson helps Lawrence progresses in his second year and the picks pan out, the sky is the limit for Lawrence. I am not going to write him off after a disappointing rookie season in a chaotic situation.
Long Shots
Mac Jones (QB - NE) I think Jones is hurt by the fact that Josh McDaniels left for the Las Vegas Raiders, which means a new offensive coordinator in 2022. It also hurts that he plays on a team that was eighth in rushing attempts and 25th in passing attempts. The Patriots could likely be a team that is in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts in 2022 and Jones does not have the rushing ability to be a Top-5 option if they do not throw the ball more.
I think assuming that this year will be like last year is not a wise decision. The 2001 New England Patriots ranked 24th in passing attempts and eighth in rushing attempts, as Tom Brady learned the offense. The next year, they were fourth in passing attempts and 28th in rushing attempts. Brady led the league with 28 touchdown passes and he was the 10th ranked fantasy quarterback. I am not trying to make the same tired comparison between Jones and Brady, this is looking at how Belichick has opened up an offense with a young quarterback in the past. If Jones improves over the offseason, Belichick should allow him to throw the ball more and that could lead to a breakout fantasy season.
Zach Wilson (QB - NYJ) The Jets have some nice young pieces in place. Michael Carter had 964 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. Elijah Moore had 43 receptions for 538 yards and five touchdowns. Neither was a fantasy star as a rookie, but they had stretches where they were productive players. They also have an offensive line that was ranked 11th by Pro Football Focus this year. They showed some signs of life on offense in the last four games of the year when they tallied 24, 26, 24, and 10 points. It was much better than the start of the season when they scored only 20 points in their first three games.
The Jets are loaded with draft picks this year. They have two first-round picks and two second-round picks, which gives them four picks in the Top-40 of the NFL Draft. They could draft four starters with those picks or they could package them to gain additional picks or move up and take an elite prospect. They do not just have two first-round picks, they have the fourth and tenth pick in the entire draft. If they hit home runs with those picks and Wilson progresses in his second year, he could be a fantasy quarterback on the rise.
Daniel Jones (QB - NYG) This is the longest shot of all the long shots, I think this shipped has sailed. Jones has not been much in his first three years in the league and Brian Daboll is likely going to want to go in a new direction. However, they also have Jones under a rookie contract and Daboll had success with Josh Allen in his rookie contract in Buffalo. If there are no rookie quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL Draft that are to his liking, he could try to retool one of the worst offensive lines in the league and try to make Jones work in 2022.
Jones has the running ability to be a great fantasy player, he has tallied 172 rushing attempts for 1,000 yards and five touchdowns in his first three seasons in the NFL. The Bills were not shy about allowing Allen to run the ball, they may use some of those same schemes in New York. Jones does not need to put up elite passing numbers if they are going to allow him to run the ball and Jones was good in his rookie year when he had three games with four touchdown passes or more. He has not had a healthy supporting cast and he has had some of the worst offensive minds in the league calling plays and charged with developing him as a quarterback the last two seasons. Daboll is his best shot to be a starting quarterback and while it is a long shot, Jones is a sleeper that could bounce back in 2022 with the right coaching and development.
Check out our full early 2022 fantasy football draft consensus rankings
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland
