Fantasy Football Predictions: Dolphins vs. Ravens (Week 2)

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:

• The Primer: Week 2 Edition

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Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Dolphins at Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Injuries

• Dolphins News – Injury Reports
• Ravens News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: After one week of watching the Ravens’ pass defense look somewhat healthy (despite losing Kyle Fuller to a torn ACL), they look like a matchup to avoid on paper. Tua Tagovailoa could walk away with a solid stat line on the back of his receivers like last week, but it’s likely not going to amount to more than a QB2 performance. Tagovailoa was the QB22 in fantasy last week with throwing for 270 yards, ranking 12th in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in yards per attempt. The Ravens gave up 307 yards passing to Joe Flacco last week, but he only threw for one score and that raw number is inflated by his 59 passing attempts (5.2 yards per attempt. Baltimore is tenth in pass defense DVOA after one game. Add in that Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson‘s statuses are up in the air for this week and we should be looking to temper expectations for Tagovailoa this week.

Lamar Jackson: Jackson faces a tough on-paper matchup against the Dolphins’ pass defense. Over the last two years, they have ranked ninth and seventh in pass defense DVOA. They held passers to the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and 12th-lowest yards per attempt last year. There’s an avenue for Jackson to have a ceiling game if he threads the needle just right. Miami also had the eighth-highest deep completion rate and play-action passing touchdown rate in 2021. Jackson is third in deep attempts this year with the sixth-highest play-action rate after Week 1. As the QB8 in Week 1, he was the ninth-highest graded passer per PFF, ranking second in big-time throw rate and first in aDOT. I lean on the side of Jackson shredding this defense in Week 2.

Running Backs

Week 1

Update: Austin Jackson (T) has been placed on the IR. This is a bump down for the offensive line this week for Miami. Chase Edmonds could see smaller running lanes and Tua Tagovailoa could see more pressure.

Chase Edmonds: Last week against this run defense Michael Carter turned his 17 touches into 100 total yards as the RB14. Chase Edmonds has similar upside this week as he did in Week 1. The offensive line’s health is a concern, no doubt. Edmonds established himself as the leader of this backfield in Week 1. He led the way in snaps and a 72.7% opportunity share (13th). His route participation is a tad low with 48.5%, but he was eighth in yards per route run with a 13.8% target share. Edmonds was 11th in breakaway run rate last year and now takes on a run defense that was seventh in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in the percentage of runs of ten or more yards allowed. His pass game role will come in handy against a team that was 30th in DVOA last year, giving up the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert would be a high-end flex this week, but he doesn’t have a large enough share of the work after one week. He only garnered a 27.3% opportunity share but looked explosive on the field. He evaded four tackles on only six touches with 5.3 yards per touch (22nd). If you’re in a pickle because of injuries or looking for a warm body to plug in for a dynasty league, the path to upside on the ground is there for Mostert. The ability to rip a long run still exists for the South Beach speedster.

Week 1

Kenyan Drake: Drake is the only running back to consider from this backfield. Even looking at him for your fantasy lineups could induce gagging, though. Out of 31 running backs with at least ten carries in Week 1, Drake ranked 27th in yards after contact per attempt and 29th in PFF’s elusive rating. In case you’re wondering, these are not good numbers, especially when the workload is divided into three parts. Miami is 30th in open field yards after Week 1, which offers some hope for Drake. They allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also sitting at 15th in yards per attempt last year. It’s fair to wonder if Drake even has the juice left to take advantage of this matchup in Week 2, even if he retains the same role and J.K. Dobbins is out. I’ll look in other directions this week, even if I’m desperate.

J.K. Dobbins: We’ll need to continue to monitor J.K. Dobbins‘ practice reports throughout the week and the news wire to see if he suits up in Week 2. Update: If he’s active, I don’t think I can make the leap with Dobbins. I understand if you don’t have any other options as a dart throw flex, but outside of that I can’t get behind it.

Wide Receivers

Update: A look at the battered Baltimore secondary.

• Marlon Humphery didn’t practice on Friday (groin). He’s been listed as questionable.
• Marcus Peters is practicing, but this is his first game off injury (knee). He’s been listed as questionable.
• Kyle Fuller lost to a torn ACL.
• Brandon Stephens has missed the last two practices with a quad injury. He’s been listed as questionable.

The Ravens could be forced to start Jayln Armour-Davis or Damarion Williams assuming Peters is active. Armour-Davis is a fourth-round rookie who has only seen one target in the NFL, allowing it to be secured for 12 yards. Williams is another fourth-round rookie who has only seen one target in the NFL, allowing a 19-yard reception.

Tyreek Hill: Hill enjoyed a productive but modest start to his Dolphins’ career. He was the WR17 last week with 12 targets (41.4% target share, third) and 94 receiving yards. He proved he’s still got it with a 3.13 yards per route run mark (18th). He ran more routes on the outside (64.5%) than during much of his time in Kansas City. This means he’ll see Brandon Stephens and Marlon Humphrey for most of the day. If Tagovailoa has time in the pocket, Hill could be in for a big day. Stephens has allowed a 72.0% catch rate and 139.8 passer rating across his young career. For as good as he is, Humphrey excels at getting physical with opposing receivers. You have to catch Hill to put your hands on him. Humphrey could struggle against HIll’s blinding speed. Humphrey allowed a 62.5% catch rate and 80.2 passer rating last year.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle was right behind Hill as the WR19 in Week 1. With Hill soaking up the looks from Tagovailoa, Waddle’s target share was a lukewarm 17.2%. Recovering from a quad injury, Waddle only played 66.7% of the snaps with a 78.8% route participation mark. That didn’t stop Waddle from posting 2.65 yards per route run (26th). Waddle wasn’t targeted deep or in the red zone last week, so until we see this type of high value usage in a game we have to assume his touchdowns will need to come from big plays. After one game Baltimore is 19th in deep passing DVOA, so there’s opportunity for Waddle to hit a long play or turn a short area target into a big gain. Waddle operated outside on nearly 79% of his routes last week, so he’ll also see plenty of Stephens and Humphrey.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman led the wide receivers with a 17.2% target share which is encouraging, but it’s definitely not the number you were looking for when you drafted him. His 67% snap rate and 80% route participation were head scratchers with a team that isn’t exactly loaded with talent at the wide receiver position. I’m hoping both climb this week while I’m left grasping at straws for why they were even this low. Bateman’s 2.36 yards per route run illustrate his immense talent. He’ll run about 88% of his routes against Xavien Howard and Nik Needham. Howard allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating last year. Needham gave up a 72.2% catch rate and 81.4 passer rating. Bateman tied Devin Duvernay and Mark Andrews for the team lead with two deep targets last week.

Devin Duvernay: I won’t be starting Devin Duvernay this week and you shouldn’t either. Despite finishing last week as the WR9 on the strength of two touchdowns, his underlying usage is too sparse to start in Week 2. Duvernay played only 52% of the snaps with a 14.3% target share and 60% route participation mark. These are too low to trust Duvernay in your lineups despite his big day in the opening Sunday. Duvernay will run about 66% of his routes against Howard and Needham.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Since we’re talking about trap plays, let’s discuss Mike Gesicki. The matchup against Baltimore is delightful. The Ravens were second in receptions, third in receiving yards and sixth in receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends last year. Gesicki would be primed for a big day if he saw the field enough. Last week he only saw one target while playing a paltry 41% of the snaps and a 39.4% route participation. If volume is king, Mike McDaniels stole Gesicki’s crown.

Mark Andrews: Despite a “down” game for Mark Andrews, he finished as the TE12 in Week 1. Mark Andrews left Week 1 third in target share (25.0%), first in route participation, and ninth in snap share among tight ends. Andrews should post a huge state line in Week 2. Last year Miami was 30th in DVOA against the position, ranking tenth in receiving yards and 13th in receiving touchdowns allowed.

Isaiah Likely: LIkely is paddling around in a thin usage canoe with Mike Gesicki. In Week 1, he only played 45% of the snaps with a 56% route participation finish. He saw a 14.3% target share and one red zone target in Week 1. With these types of numbers, I can’t start you even if the matchup is glorious.

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*