This recurring pseudo-start/sit article focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Always start your studs, as the elite players will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Safest Starts
Michael Pittman (WR – IND)
Outside of the big names, with little competition for targets, perhaps the safest player to start this week at WR is Michael Pittman, who could explode against an unproven Houston Texans secondary. Even with RB Jonathan Taylor projected to get a heavy workload, Matt Ryan should air it out early to his top receiver as the QB looks to establish himself with his new team. Pittman finished as the WR18 in fantasy in 2021, even though 22% of his targets from prior QB Carson Wentz were deemed uncatchable. Now he gets Ryan, the 8th most accurate QB last year — going against the 8th-worst team at defending wideouts. Pittman should finish in the top 10 among wide receivers this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
T.J. Hockenson was having a career year before a late-season thumb injury derailed his campaign. Before the injury, the third-year tight-end was getting a ton of looks, averaging over six targets per game. He will have more competition in the offense this year with the return of a healthy D’Andre Swift, the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and additions to the receiver room. However, the newcomers might not have established chemistry with QB Jared Goff yet, so the fourth-year tight end should have a leg up initially. It helps that he is facing a Philadelphia Eagles team that surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year. When these two teams met last season, Hockenson caught 10 of 11 passes for 89 yards. He has top-5 potential this week.
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
The Detroit Lions’ secondary struggled last year and was ranked near the bottom of the league by Michael Renner of PFF heading into the preseason. The acquisition of A.J. Brown broadcasted the Eagles’ intent on improving its passing game, and DeVonta Smith was the leader in targets for the Eagles in 2021. The duo should provide a nice one-two punch, and Brown’s presence should draw coverage away from Smith, although I also love A.J. Brown this week.
Honorable Mention: Digging deeper, rookie George Pickens draws a juicy matchup against corner Eli Apple this week. Pickens could get a lot of looks in the game as Diontae Johnson was reportedly extremely limited in practice mid-week due to a shoulder injury, and star corner Chidobe Awuzie could further hamper him.
Riskiest Starts
James Robinson (RB – JAX)
James Robinson will play in the Jacksonville Jaguars season opener against the Washington Commanders, but he may be the riskiest fantasy start of the week. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said Robinson will not be limited on Sunday and could even see a significant workload, according to ESPN.com’s Michael DiRocco. The third-year running back is less than nine months removed from suffering a torn left Achilles tendon which is an incredulous recovery time. With other capable backs in Travis Etienne and rookie Snoop Conner, it wouldn’t be surprising for the team to limit Robinson’s snap count, especially if he is relatively ineffective. His production could suffer at the onset, similar to that of Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers when he returned from the same injury late last season. Sit Robinson if you have other options.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
The preseason darling climbed draft boards faster than it takes a cellphone battery to die. Dameon Pierce racked up 86 yards on 11 carries in his two preseason games. His 7.8-yard average was the highest among running backs with at least 10 carries. He could fizzle out a bit this week, though, as he has a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts’ stout run defense, ranked the best in the league last season. The Texans will likely play from behind, making the game script more favorable for pass-catching specialist Rex Burkhead this week. That renders Pierce no more than a flex option against the Colts.
Update: Colts All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard has been ruled out for Sunday’s opener versus the Texans, which moves Pierce into RB2 territory…
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)
He’ll likely be in lineups, but temper expectations for Amari Cooper with Jacoby Brissett at the helm this week (and succeeding weeks until Deshaun Watson returns). Brissett isn’t quite the definition of a world-beater at QB, and the Cleveland Browns will probably be more run-centric than ever. Although the Carolina Panthers were middle of the pack against wide receivers last season, the Browns are thin at the position, making it easier for the defense to hone in on Cooper. He’s no more than a WR3/Flex option this week.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile. You can also ask her start/sit questions on Twitter and follow her @FantasyQueenB.
