NFL fans are treated to a three-game Saturday slate this week. The player pool is fairly top-heavy. Thus, gamers will have to fade a few studs and take some chances on value selections. This piece will look at each game and whittle the player pool to a manageable number.
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Week 15 Matchups
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Colts Analysis: Jeff Saturday took over as the interim coach for the Colts in Week 10. Unsurprisingly, he's deployed a balanced offense since taking the reins. According to numberFire, they've attempted 90 passes and 74 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
In addition to using a balanced offense, he's force-fed the rock to Jonathan Taylor. The club's bell cow back has handled 67 of 74 rush attempts by a Colts' running back in neutral game scripts. Additionally, Taylor has dominated the routes from the backfield. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Taylor has run 106 routes, and Deon Jackson has run 16 since Saturday became the interim coach.
Taylor has carried the ball at least 20 times and had multiple receptions in the four-game stretch, eclipsing 90 scrimmage yards in each game and scoring a touchdown in three of them. The workload is tantalizing, and the matchup is average. Taylor isn't a must-use option on the three-game slate, but he has the ceiling to merit tournament consideration.
The passing attack has a cushy matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 28th in pass defense DVOA since Week 8. Minnesota has struggled mightily to defend wideouts. Per Pro-Football-Reference, wideouts have the most receptions (197) and receiving yards (2,709) and have tied for the 10th-most touchdown receptions (12) against the Vikings this year.
Michael Pittman is the most desirable wide receiver to use on the Colts. Per numberFire, he's had 31 targets (23.7% Target Share), 22 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 183 Air Yards and one touchdown in his last four games.
Alec Pierce is an intriguing boom-or-bust pick, too. As Ian Hartitz pointed out on Twitter, perimeter receivers have destroyed the Vikings.
Pierce was largely invisible in the last four games. However, he popped up for four receptions, 86 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 13. Further, his 262 Air Yards were the most for the Colts in their last four games.
Sadly, the risk for Pittman and Pierce is apparent. Matt Ryan has looked like he's cooked. He's not taking shots downfield. Will Minnesota's leaky secondary prompt him to take a few more chances? That remains to be seen.
Kylen Granson re-emerged as the starting tight end for the Colts in Week 13 after a one-game absence. Yet, he was inefficient. Therefore, big-bodied rookie Jelani Woods is a more fantasy-friendly choice. He broke out in Week 12. Sadly, Woods slipped from 27 routes in Week 12 to only 11 in Week 13. Still, Woods has been targeted on a gaudy 31.6% of his routes in his last two games and converted his targets into 10 receptions for 126 receiving yards.
Matty Ice has peppered Woods with targets when he's on the field. Finally, perhaps, Woods could get a post-bye rookie bump. Regardless, the pickings are slim at tight end on this three-game slate. So, the opportunity cost for using Woods as a punt is small.
Vikings Analysis: Kirk Cousins hasn't been flawless this year. He has played his best football indoors, though. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's averaged 258.4 passing yards per game and thrown 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions in eight games in a dome this year. Cousins' splits in recent seasons have also favored playing indoors. So, this doesn't appear to be a small-sample fluke. Cousins looks good in the projections, ranking as the QB2 on Saturday's DFS slate and owning the second-highest value score at quarterback (QB2V) at DraftKings and the QB3V at FanDuel.
Justin Jefferson is unreal. He erupted for 223 receiving yards on 11 receptions last week. Moreover, he's had more than 100 receiving yards eight times and reached paydirt in six contests this season. As a result, Jefferson is a matchup-proof monster and is projected as the WR1 on this slate. The third-year wideout is a priority choice in all game types.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Tyler Huntley isn't on Baltimore's injury report. That's outstanding news for the offense's ability to move the ball. Still, Baltimore's offense should run through the one-two punch of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Dobbins handled 15 rush attempts for 120 yards and a touchdown, and Edwards toted the rock 13 times for 66 scoreless yards in last week's two-point victory. They should be licking their lips in anticipation of a tasty matchup this week. Cleveland is 30th in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. Additionally, they've yielded the seventh-most rushing yards (1,480) and have tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (14) allowed to running backs this year. Thus, in that order, Dobbins and Edwards are two of the best options at running back on this slate. Dobbins is projected as the RB4.
Browns Analysis: The Ravens have suffocated running games. They're first in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. Therefore, Nick Chubb should be faded. However, the Ravens are 19th in pass defense DVOA during that stretch.
Cleveland's passing attack isn't reliable since Deshaun Watson has been a tire fire in two games. However, Donovan Peoples-Jones is a nifty pick. DPJ has led the Browns in routes (72), targets (16), receptions (11) and receiving yards (158) in the last two weeks and added a punt return for a touchdown for good measure. The field-stretching wideout has big-play potential.
Demetric Felton is a potentially sneaky punt. The second-year running back/wide receiver hybrid is listed as the former at DK and the latter at FD. Rookie slot wideout David Bell is ruled out, and Felton is the next man up. The second-year player has negative-one scrimmage yard on one reception and one rush attempt this year. Nonetheless, Felton has been on the field a bit lately, running 20 routes (14 in the slot) in the previous two weeks. Felton could snag a few layups from the slot if the Browns are in a negative game script.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: It's never comfortable to fade Tyreek Hill. However, even though he's not on the injury report, he was visibly nursing an ankle injury on Sunday night and had one less day to recover for this contest. Additionally, the Bills held him to 33 scoreless yards on two receptions in Week 3. And, of course, Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his worst game of the year against the Chargers after a rocky showing in Week 13, saying nothing of his mediocre 186 passing yards and one touchdown on 18 attempts in Week 3.
Buffalo's defense and the weather forecast also contribute to the decision to fade the 'Phins. The Bills are fifth in rush defense DVOA and 18th in pass defense DVOA since Week 8, and there's snow and cold weather in the forecast.
Bills Analysis: The weather forecast could be problematic for Buffalo's offense, too. So, gamers should keep tabs on how poor the conditions will be. Yet, Josh Allen's rushing ability keeps him in the mix on this small slate, even if the weather is suboptimal.
If the weather isn't nasty enough to force them out of their normal tendencies, the Bills can carve up the Dolphins through the air. Miami is 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 8. Conversely, since Allen hurt his elbow, the Bills have attempted 130 passes and 71 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in five games. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed 26 times for 227 yards and two touchdowns in neutral game scripts while playing through his elbow issue.
Allen hasn't shown off his immense ceiling in the past five weeks. Regardless, he's averaged 230 passing yards and 47.2 rushing yards per game while rushing for two touchdowns and passing for seven touchdowns and three interceptions. So, he's still been a fantasy asset. Allen is projected as the highest-scoring player in DFS on Saturday and is an excellent choice in all game types.
Stefon Diggs is the second-most alluring option on the Bills. The Jets held him to a season-low three receptions and 37 scoreless yards last week, but Miami's secondary isn't in the same stratosphere as Gang Green's. Diggs had an underwhelming day against the Dolphins in the first meeting by his standards, hauling in seven receptions for 74 scoreless yards on 11 targets. Nevertheless, that speaks volumes about how high he's set the bar for himself. Diggs has averaged 7.2 receptions and 95.3 receiving yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns. Buffalo's No. 1 wideout is projected as the WR2 on the Saturday slate.
Gabe Davis hasn't been a consistent option in Buffalo's passing attack. He's still always on the field and can make noise on big plays or in the red zone. Davis has a team-high eight targets of at least 20 Air Yards, twice as many as the second-highest mark on the team in Buffalo's previous five games. Davis has hauled in three of those targets for 70 yards.
If the weather permits Allen to cut loose a few deep passes, this might be a get-right spot for Davis. Justin Herbert completed two of three attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards against the Dolphins last week, completing both of those passes he directed to Mike Williams for 78 yards. Davis isn't as talented as Big Mike, but he's a similar archetype of a player.
If the Bills have to use the intermediate part of the field because of the weather, Dawson Knox could pop up this week. According to PFF, since Week 10, Knox has had a modest 7.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT). The fourth-year pro had his best game of the season last week, securing four receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown on a season-high seven targets.
The matchup is also encouraging for Knox. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most receptions (79) and fourth-most touchdown receptions (seven) to tight ends. Further, according to Football Outsiders, tight ends have averaged the eighth-most receiving yards per game (56.2) against the Dolphins.
James Cook has teased some potential lately but hasn't strung together back-to-back useful games. The rookie running back has also had his two highest snap shares (43% and 41%) in the last two weeks, narrowly trailing Devin Singletary (44% and 49%).
Cook had 15 scoreless yards on four rushes and one reception in Week 14. However, he had 64 rushing yards, six receptions and 41 receiving yards in Week 13. Buffalo's second-round pick alternated useful games in Week 11 and Week 12, too. Cook had 86 rushing yards in Week 11 before cratering to 18 scrimmage yards in Week 12.
The floor is low for Cook, but the matchup is also eye-catching for him. Miami is 19th in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. Running backs have also hurt the Dolphins through the air. They've averaged the sixth-most receiving yards per game (45.3), have tied for the eighth-most receptions (73) and have tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (four) against the Dolphins this season.
Singletary gashed them through the air for nine receptions, 78 receiving yards and one touchdown on 11 targets in Week 3, but Cook has emerged as a more impactful pass-catching back. Since Week 10, Singletary has run 109 routes, and Cook has run 45. Yet, Singletary had only nine targets, five receptions and 23 receiving yards, and Cook was targeted on 31.1% of his routes and had nine receptions and 64 receiving yards. Gamers should consider using Cook as a value pick on the Saturday DFS slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
