To paraphrase George Bernard Shaw, “Youth is Wasted on the Young.”
Every offseason is marked with an infectious case of “rookie fever” that grips the fantasy football community and has us yearning for that late-round breakout performance from someone who was cramming for final exams only months before training camp.
Nothing spoils us more rotten than enjoying consecutive historic seasons from rookies like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. There were no diamonds in this rough, rugged campaign. There were only rubies and sapphires whose luster was marred by untimely injuries and toxic leadership.
The 2022 class that entered the NFL this season was not bereft of talent but paled in comparison to previous years. There were, however, a great many weekly performers who put wind in our sails and impacted the win column during the fantasy football season.
Let’s look back on 2022 and recognize the youth movement that may or may not have carried you to a fantasy championship or DFS payout. Surely some of them can also illuminate the fantasy horizon for years to come, so I’ll also take a gander at my crystal ball and predict which ones based on their talent and situation.
Quarterback
The 2022 rookie class of QBs was bad. At least, they were pretty putrid as rookies. Ironically, the most successful rookie QB was the very last one selected in the draft. Brock Purdy was a longstanding leader at Iowa State and a true lunch pail player. The question marks around his tangible traits sunk him to become Mr. Irrelevant and the 49ers’ third-string signal caller behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Wins aren’t a QB stat, but the 49ers have not lost any of the five games with Purdy at the helm. More importantly, Purdy is averaging 17.72 fantasy points over those five games, which would land him as QB14 in weekly scoring average. He was quite literally the only rookie QB this season who warranted starting consideration at any point.
As for the future, Purdy has at least demonstrated to the 49ers that Jimmy Garoppolo is expendable after the season. He may push Trey Lance to be the outright starting QB next season and into the future, depending on the team’s success in the playoffs and Lance’s recovery from multiple ankle surgeries. This reminds me a lot of when Washington drafted both Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins, but when RGIII’s health took him down, Cousins was ultimately the franchise’s long-term solution. Purdy is privileged to operate within the snow globe of the Shanahan system and can offer QB2 production as long as he is running the show.
The Steelers got caught brandishing their cards before the hand was decided. Not many teams were desperate enough to need one of the QBs in the 2022 class, but they certainly pretended they were. Many scouts and analysts placed Kenny Pickett behind others in his class, such as Malik Willis and Sam Howell. The Steelers, fearing their local guy would get swiped if they didn’t spend their first-round pick on him, swooped on the super senior. After the veteran Mitchell Trubisky struggled, Pittsburgh threw Pickett into the deep end. He didn’t swim like an otter, but he also wasn’t wearing cement slippers. Pickett averaged just over 12 fantasy points in his 12 games and has shown steady improvement in poise and decision-making.
There isn’t a ton of upside for Pickett as a fantasy option, especially if the Steelers retain the services of OC Matt Canada. The good news is he passed the test on whether they can trust him to lead their team and not be a complete bust as a top pick. The incoming class of QBs is quite a bit better in 2023, but the Steelers will have their sights set on other positional needs. Maybe Pickett can accumulate more than nine touchdowns (six passing, three rushing) in 12 games if he had a better offensive line and a bona fide slot receiver.
Running Back
I love Breece Hall. He is a spectacular football player who had the Jets’ offense rolling steadily and winning games with a horrendous QB. The Iowa State phenom averaged 16.4 PPR points per game until he tore his ACL in Week 7. That figure puts him at RB7 in scoring average, right behind breakout star Tony Pollard. The entire fantasy football community has been haunted by “what could have been” since Hall went down.
It is uncertain if he will be ready for the start of the 2023 season, but I wouldn’t count on elite production for a while after he returns. The Jets have a bright future, despite falling apart at the seams down the stretch in 2022. Their offensive weaponry is young and deep. Their defense dragged the rest of the tattered team into continued playoff contention until the bitter end. The Jets could be contenders for years on end with just about any competent QB. Hall can singlehandedly keep a championship window ajar.
There was a clear divide between Hall and Kenneth Walker camps leading up to the 2022 season. Who is the better of the two for fantasy? Which one is the true RB1 of this class? The debate rages on. Both of them were incredible in 2022. On the surface, Walker scored 13.5 fantasy points per game this season (well shy of Hall’s 16.4). If you count only the games where Walker was the clear, healthy starter, he averaged 17.5 and cracked RB1 territory (top-12) three times. His indecisiveness and propensity to dance around instead of getting north and south were contrasted with his undeniable ability to break big plays.
Rashaad Penny has never been able to stay on the field, and his time in Seattle might be nearing its end. Walker was nicked up a few times this season but will be a fantasy provider in good health for many years to come. Seattle would be wise to invest in an RB that can offer a change of pace to complement Walker, similar to how Pollard complements Ezekiel Elliott. This offensive system chews up and spits out RBs, but the healthy ones seemingly always produce strong fantasy numbers. Walker is the most special back they’ve had in Seattle since Marshawn Lynch.
For a stretch of weeks, we saw the type of angry running from Dameon Pierce that had us reminiscing about Lynch and the late Marion Barber. The rookie from Florida runs angry. Frankly, there wasn’t much to run happy about in Houston this year (other than locking in the top overall pick). Weeks 3-5 this season saw Pierce score three touchdowns and finish no worse than RB11. Houston’s Week 6 bye preceded a nine-game losing streak and relegated Pierce to top out at 15.7 PPR points during the stretch. Highlight runs were still there, but unfortunately, no style points are awarded in fantasy.
The Texans still stake a claim to the weakest roster in the NFL with a litany of holes to fill in personnel. Pierce is not lacking in skill, but his style of play certainly does not lend confidence that his body will hold up in the long term. Houston must address every offensive position this offseason for Pierce’s fantasy prospects to warrant optimism. The fire sale nature of the franchise in recent years should deter us from holding our breath.
Wide Receiver
One rookie certainly deserves to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Garrett Wilson was flanked by Chris Olave and Jaxson Smith-Njigba at Ohio State last season and has shown his elite skill set in the NFL from the word ‘go.’ Despite being subjected to operating alongside the ghastly Zach Wilson for most of the season, Garrett Wilson has been an elite separator with incredible chops after the catch. He found WR1 upside with the switch to Mike White in the middle of the season, which should excite fantasy managers and Jets fans alike with the prospects of a better QB taking over in the near future. Garrett Wilson was second among 2022 rookie WRs with 12.4 PPR points per game and WR22 overall. He also scored all four of his touchdowns in the two games where he was top-five at the position.
Garrett Wilson is an emerging star with elite traits. He is also not in his final form. He reminds me a lot of a more-polished Davante Adams at this stage. Wilson is not a full-fledged alpha quite yet, but it is certainly within his range of outcomes. I can certainly envision a second and third-year leap similar to CeeDee Lamb as a progression. The Jets just need to not flub the QB position for the umpteenth time for Garrett Wilson to flourish.
Remember when Aaron Rodgers unleashed an absolute dot to his rookie speedster on the first play of the season, only for Christian Watson to flat-out drop it? An entire parking garage could have been erected between his hands at the catch point, drawing the ire of football fans everywhere. Rodgers has definitely helped Watson develop into a better receiver this season. While his technique still leaves much to be desired, Watson is a formidable weapon on the field with his athleticism. Between Weeks 10-13, there was not a more productive fantasy WR. The runaway Bison from North Dakota State scored eight touchdowns in that stretch and was no worse than WR10 in any of those weeks.
Another full off-season could turn Watson into an unstoppable force. Picture a healthy Will Fuller that is much taller. The one question mark will be Aaron Rodgers’ future as the Green Bay QB. He could retire at a moment’s notice or play for years more out of pure spite. As long as the Packers have a serviceable downfield passer at the helm, Watson will be a fantasy-relevant WR with smatterings of elite upside.
I watch a lot of game tape, and there weren’t many WRs in general that were more impressive than Jahan Dotson. In this class, I felt that only Garrett Wilson and Olave were better QB-independent WRs than Dotson. He scored more than 120 fantasy points in 11 games and appeared as a WR2 or better in five of those games. This was with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke throwing hospital balls around the yard all season. Dotson also famously popped on tape despite horrendous QB play at Penn State last season.
Dotson is yet another uber-talented WR who would benefit from his team upgrading the QB position. I have a distinct feeling that Sam Howell will ball out in his first career start this week and pave the way for his ascent to the starting position next season. In any case, Dotson is the type of player with alpha traits that need to be nurtured. Let’s hope the Commanders finally do just one thing right.
My second-favorite WR in the 2022 class looked really good this season. Unfortunately for Drake London, his head coach spent most of the season re-enacting the 1926 Navy Midshipmen and squandered the immense receiving talent on the Falcons roster. Arthur Smith needs to kick rocks if there is to be any hope of London reaching his full potential as a fantasy superstar. Despite him being the only good WR on the roster, he only saw double-digit targets once until Week 13, when Kyle Pitts was lost for the season. Only a truly incompetent play caller could turn the WR with the third-highest target rate in the NFL (32%; PlayerProfiler) into WR38 for fantasy.
Despite all the fantasy bloodshed caused by Smith, the sky is still the limit for London. A lot of the doom and gloom can also be blamed on the awful season put forth by Marcus Mariota as a passer. It is very murky as to whether Atlanta trusts Desmond Ridder to be their QB of the future. I hope not since he is simply a younger clone of Mariota and not the answer to unlocking London and Pitts. We could start getting excited for London again if the Falcons draft a better option in the spring. He has all the traits of a Mike Evans type of dominant outside receiver for years on end.
Yet another supremely talented WR from the 2022 rookie class whose fantasy value was derailed by injuries and horrendous QB play was Olave. The speedy technician from Ohio State enjoyed some incredible success this season, despite the Saints inexplicably rolling out Andy Dalton as the starter over a once-injured Jameis Winston. Even still, Olave was the highest-scoring rookie WR in fantasy points per game with 13.1. It was apparent from the very beginning of the season that Olave was incredibly adept at getting open. He earned 29 targets in the first three weeks from Winston, including consecutive games with 13 targets. He then only enjoyed double-digit targets from Dalton once the rest of the season. It was as clear as Louisiana moonshine that Andy Dalton was holding his talented rookie WR back.
Looking to the future, New Orleans is a complete mess as a franchise. They are spinning their wheels and don’t even own their 2023 first-round pick (Philadelphia does). QB is of staggering importance for a team that could have made some real noise in the putrid NFC South with any semblance of offensive direction. Olave is good enough to overcome mediocre QB performance, but his fantasy upside will be limited as long as the Saints continue to flounder in utter mediocrity as a franchise.
Tight End
Rookie TEs are often irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Occasionally, players like Pitts or Evan Engram come along and take us on a magical ride that leaves us chasing that euphoria. Most of the time, chasing the next breakout rookie TE for fantasy only amplifies the Dunning-Kruger effect in fantasy managers. We think we’re geniuses when luck played the lead role in our success. We were gifted some looks into the future with Maryland rookie Chig Okonkwo. He was the fastest TE in the class and was weaponized in the anemic Tennessee passing game much more than forecasted leading into the season. The bar for TE scoring is low, especially for rookies. Chig eclipsed double-digit fantasy points four times in 2022, which isn’t bad for a player who was not drafted in many fantasy leagues.
In dynasty leagues, the TE position is an enigma. Travis Kelce managers carry a blowtorch while the rest of us frantically rub sticks together. Chig is a raw talent with oodles of receiving upside. He very well could develop into a fantasy star and can still be acquired for a small pittance. He showed me enough growth this season to be very optimistic about his future value.
The consensus TE1 of the 2022 rookie class was gifted as much of a chance to emerge as a fantasy asset as we could have dreamed about. Relatively speaking, we were extremely disappointed with Trey McBride’s production. Zach Ertz was injured, paving the way for McBride to earn some passing volume in Arizona’s air raid attack. Unfortunately, McBride also had trouble staying healthy. The Cardinals’ season was an abject disaster, with injuries to every single fantasy-relevant skill player on the roster. The only silver lining was that McBride rewarded a lucky few with a 20.8-point performance in Week 17 (the fantasy football championship). He didn’t get us there, but he ultimately helped us bring it home.
Going forward, having a TE with a strong receiving skillset on a rebuilding team has its benefits. McBride is more than capable of operating as a key weapon in any traditional NFL offense. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury has never embraced the magnitude of his undeserved position and continues to operate with a predictable, gimmicky college offense. Let’s hope he is shown the door and someone with a real plan can better utilize the talented pieces on this team. It would not surprise me one bit if McBride is a perennial top-12 TE in fantasy going forward, starting in 2023.
Speaking of disasters, the Denver Broncos might take the cake as the doomsday scenario for any NFL franchise. Nathaniel Hackett was immediately in over his head with a diva QB who somehow lost his way in the last couple of years. Greg Dulcich was a bit of a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy season for the Broncos. He comfortably led all rookie TEs with 8.6 fantasy points per game and turned in five top-12 performances. It could have very easily been more, with the rookie from UCLA repeatedly spotted on tape waving his arms all alone and wide open, unable to catch the attention of the oblivious Russell Wilson. The proof is right there: Dulcich is plenty capable of producing as a top fantasy TE.
Nothing about Dulcich’s game stood out to me as a prospect, but he is equally well-rounded. He seemingly does everything pretty well and is well-liked by coaches and teammates. Going forward, Dulcich is a steady back-end TE1 with room to grow if put in a better situation. It’s genuinely difficult to determine how much of Denver’s failure was on Hackett or Wilson. Such a talented roster was completely wasted this season, but Dulcich has a lot of years of fantasy glory right in front of him.
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