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2023 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Freedman’s Pre-Combine Version (4.0)

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Freedman’s Pre-Combine Version (4.0)

We’re less than a week away from the official start of #DraftSZN — the 2023 NFL scouting combine, which starts on March 2 — so it’s time to publish another mock draft.

Here are my previous 2023 mocks.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

This version is significantly different than the last one. Starting at pick No. 10, I’ve changed 16 player-team matches, although in many of these instances the position-team matches remain intact.

Over the past three years, I’m the No. 1 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. Over the past four years, I’m No. 2. For obvious and selfish reasons, I prefer the three-year window.

Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.

  • 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
  • 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
  • 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
  • 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)

Check out my 2023 NFL draft prop card to see all the bets I’ve made to date. As I make more bets, I will post them first in the NFL draft channel in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.

In determining team needs, I’ve consulted Andrew Erickson’s excellent free agency and draft breakdown.

Note: The Dolphins forfeited the No. 21 pick because of the team’s “impermissible contact” with QB Tom Brady and HC Sean Payton when they were respectively under contract with the Patriots and Saints. Rather than list that missing pick below, I have moved what would have been Picks 22-32 to Picks 21-31.

2023 NFL Draft Guide: Prospect Rankings & Player Profiles

Matthew Freedman’s Pre-Combine 2023 NFL Mock Draft

1. Chicago Bears: Will Anderson (EDGE – Alabama)

Based on what we saw out of second-year QB Justin Fields in 2022, I don’t expect the Bears to select a quarterback, which means they will probably try to trade out of the No. 1 spot. If they do, I will likely project them with a different player, but for the time being I’ll keep them at No. 1, and I think the odds are high that they will select a defender unless they trade down far enough to put them in reasonable range for a wide receiver or offensive tackle.

But I also don’t think they will want to trade down that far.

The No. 1 defender selected I expect to come down to Anderson and DT Jalen Carter. Given the premium based on pass rushers, I’m going with Anderson at the top of the draft. A two-time unanimous All-American, he’s worthy of No. 1 consideration regardless of whichever team ultimately makes the pick.

Anderson is the No. 1 player on Matthew Jones’ 2023 draft prospect big board.

Team Needs: WR, OL, DL, LB, CB
Prospect Profile


2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)

The Texans need a quarterback, and Young is the consensus top option at the position. He’s small (6-0, 194 pounds).

But he was a dynamic producer in two years as a starter.

  • 2021 (15 games): 4,872-47-7 passing | 66.9% completion rate | 10.0 AY/A
  • 2022 (12 games): 3,328-32-5 passing | 64.5% completion rate | 9.9 AY/A

Even with his size, the 2021 Heisman winner seems destined to be a top-three pick.

Team Needs: QB, WR, DL, OL, TE
Prospect Profile


3. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Carter (DT – Georgia)

It’s hard to know what the Cardinals will do now that they have parted ways with HC Kliff Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim, but the presence of QB Kyler Murray on the roster all but guarantees that they won’t take a passer at No. 3, so I’ll go with Carter. The Cardinals don’t technically need a defensive tackle, but they’re not strong at the position, and Carter is one of the few true blue-chip players in this class.

A unanimous All-American last season, Carter was a key contributor to the 2021-23 National Championship-winning defense for the Bulldogs.

Team Needs: OL, EDGE, CB, QB, WR
Prospect Profile


4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)

The Colts are a popular candidate to trade up for the top pick, and Levis looks like the kind of quarterback they’d like, so I do have a position on Levis No. 1 overall: Young’s size will likely scare some teams off, and QB C.J. Stroud is already getting the Ohio State-based Justin Fields treatment (No. 11 in 2021, should’ve been top three).

Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds) and arm strength. He’ll appeal to the NFL decision makers who want a “traditional” quarterback, which makes him a real option to go in the top five, maybe No. 1 overall. Levis has seen his draft stock move up significantly since last summer, and I expect that momentum to sustain itself into the spring.

Graphic via Grinding the Mocks

Team Needs: QB, OL, WR, S
Prospect Profile


5. Seattle Seahawks: Tyree Wilson (EDGE – Texas Tech)

In the summer, Wilson wasn’t at all on my radar, but he moved up draft boards in the 2022 season with a notable senior campaign, racking up 61 tackles, 14 for loss and seven sacks. Wilson has the size to hold up in the running game and to move inside on passing downs, and he has the strength and explosiveness to rush the passer off the edge.

The Seahawks need help on the defensive line, and Wilson looks like the kind of athlete they have tended to prize.

Team Needs: DT, EDGE, WR, C, LB, CB
Prospect Profile
Pick via Denver Broncos


6. Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez (CB – Oregon)

The Lions need help at cornerback: 2020 No. 3 pick Jeff Okudah has not lived up to expectations, and Amani Oruwariye, Mike Hughes and Will Harris are 2023 free agents.

A three-year starter, Gonzalez has a strong profile with his size (6-1, 201 pounds), age (turns 21 in June) and pedigree (four stars). Widely overlooked before the season, he broke out in 2022 with a four-interception campaign and now is a strong candidate for Round 1 after seeing his draft stock skyrocket.

Earlier this month when I first mocked Gonzalez at No. 6 overall, that was a tad aggressive — but now it’s a common landing spot. He’s flying up draft boards and I think he should now be the favorite to be the No. 1 cornerback selected, although my opinion could certainly change based on the combine: This is a deep class at the position.

Team Needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, S, QB
Prospect Profile
Pick via Denver Broncos


7. Las Vegas Raiders: C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)

A real option to go No. 1 overall, Stroud represents great value for the Raiders at this spot.

The No. 2 pocket passer in his recruitment class, Stroud lived up to the hype in his two years as a starter with 8,123-85-12 passing on a 69.3% completion rate and 11.2 AY/A.

Team Needs: QB, OT, DE, DT, LB, CB, TE, RB
Prospect Profile


8. Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy (EDGE – Clemson)

The Falcons defense was dead last in the league in 2022 with a 4.0% adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders). The team needs someone on the perimeter of the line to complement defensive tackle Grady Jarrett on the interior, and Murphy has a good chance to go in the top 10.

A five-star recruit who just turned 21 years old, Murphy has the profile of a player who could be a consistent NFL contributor for a decade.

Team Needs: EDGE, WR, CB OT, QB, LB
Prospect Profile


9. Carolina Panthers: Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)

I’m skeptical that we’ll see four quarterbacks in the top 10. This isn’t a great class at the position, quarterbacks tend to fall in the draft relative to their mock expectations and a team at the top of the draft — perhaps the Raiders or Panthers — might take itself out of the rookie market by signing a veteran in free agency: QBs Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jameis Winston are options.

But until we see that happen, I’ll project the Panthers with a quarterback at No. 9, and Richardson has established himself as the No. 4 option in this class.

With a 54.7% completion rate and 7.4 AY/A for his career, Richardson is far from polished as a passer, but he has the rushing upside (evidenced by his nice 6.9 yards per carry) to be a legit dual-threat producer in the NFL.

Team Needs: QB, S, CB, TE, DT, EDGE, RB
Prospect Profile


10. Philadelphia Eagles: Devon Witherspoon (CB – Illinois)

With a championship-caliber roster, the Eagles don’t have many needs. And with two picks in Round 1, they have enormous flexibility, so predicting what they might do is difficult.

But CB James Bradberry is an unrestricted free agent in 2023, so I can imagine the Eagles drafting his replacement.

Witherspoon is a 2022 All-American and four-year contributor who plays bigger than his size (180 pounds).

Team Needs: DT, EDGE, CB, LB, RB, S
Prospect Profile
Pick via New Orleans Saints

Previous Pick: Joey Porter Jr.


11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson (OT – Ohio State)

Johnson might be my favorite all-around player in this class. He has the size (6-6, 310 pounds) to play on the interior, and the athleticism to man the perimeter. He has great positional versatility, given his 13 starts at right guard as a sophomore and 13 starts at left tackle as a junior.

He has the production: Last year he allowed only two sacks in what proved to be an All-American campaign.

And he has the pedigree: As a recruit, he earned five stars from every major scouting service and was a consensus top-two offensive tackle in his class.

I previously had Peter Skoronski mocked to the Titans, who recently released longtime LT Taylor Lewan, but I now have Johnson projected as the No. 1 tackle off the board.

Team Needs: OL, WR, LB, CB, QB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Peter Skoronski


12. Houston Texans: Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)

Although his hold on the spot is tenuous, Johnston is still the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in the class, which makes sense: He’s the only receiver likely to be drafted in Round 1 with prototypical size (6-4, 212 pounds), and he had the production last year (60-1,069-6 receiving) to justify his draft hype.

The Texans desperately need a pass catcher to pair with QB Bryce Young.

Team Needs: QB, WR, DL, OL, TE
Prospect Profile
Pick via Cleveland Browns


13. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski (OT – Northwestern)

The Jets need offensive line help: LT Duane Brown turns 38 years old this year, OTs George Fant and Cedric Ogbuehi are free agents and OLs Mekhi Becton (knee) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) suffered season-ending injuries in 2022.

A lunch pail player with a hardhat name, Skoronski has the versatility to play tackle and guard and the nastiness to be an above-average starter.

Team Needs: QB, OL, DT, EDGE, S, LB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Paris Johnson


14. New England Patriots: Brian Branch (S – Alabama)

It’s always hard to 1) anticipate what the Patriots will do and 2) project where safeties will go, so I don’t have much confidence in this team-player match, but Branch is a unanimous first-rounder, HC Bill Belichick likes Alabama players and the Patriots have a need at the position: FS Devin McCourty is a free agent, as is SS Jabrill Peppers.

Playing the “star” role in the Alabama secondary last year, Branch has the skill set to line up in the box against tight ends, in the slot against wide receivers and deep downfield as a traditional free safety.

Team Needs: WR, OL, S, LB, CB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Broderick Jones


15. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)

In back-to-back seasons, Mayer was one of the best tight ends in college football.

  • 2021 (12 games): 71-840-7 receiving
  • 2022 (12 games): 67-809-9 receiving

A 2022 All-American, Mayer has the size (6-5, 251 pounds) to play inline and the pass-catching chops to line up in the slot.

TEs Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis are free agents, and neither one has ever been a prolific yardage accumulator.

Team Needs: WR, S, TE, DT, CB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Lukas Van Ness


16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr. (CB – Penn State)

HC Ron Rivera is a defense-focused team builder, and the defensive front seven is strong, but after CB Kendall Fuller the secondary is thin.

A physical defender with Richard Sherman-like size (6-2, 196 pounds), Porter feels like the kind of player Rivera would like — although this is a good year at the position: I can see as many as seven corners going in Round 1.

A lot will be determined by the combine.

Team Needs: QB, OL, CB, S, LB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Devon Witherspoon


17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kelee Ringo (CB – Georgia)

The Steelers have maybe 10 cornerbacks on their roster — which means they’re desperate at the position. Ringo could step in as a Week 1 contributor.

A two-year starter, Ringo was the No. 1 cornerback for Georgia’s defense and has all the trappings of a future NFL shutdown cover man: Elite size (6-2, 205 pounds), youth (turns 21 in June) and recruitment pedigree (five stars).

Team Needs: OL, DT, EDGE, CB, S, LB
Prospect Profile


18. Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee (DT – Clemson)

The Lions did well in 2022 to add EDGEs Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal, but they could use some muscle on the interior of their defensive line, given that they ranked No. 28 in defensive rush success rate in the regular season (44.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

A five-star recruit ranked No. 1 overall by some scouting services when he entered college, Bresee is a likely Round 1 selection, although his draft stock has dropped some over the past two months.

Team Needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, S, QB
Prospect Profile


19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cam Smith (CB – South Carolina)

That’s three cornerbacks in four picks, but I think that run is warranted.

This class is strong at the position, pass defenders are at a premium in the NFL and many teams in this part of the draft need help at the position. For the Buccaneers, CBs Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are slated for free agency this offseason.

In Smith, the Bucs get a ball-hawking corner (six career interceptions) with three years of SEC experience.

Team Needs: QB, CB, S, DL, OL, WR
Prospect Profile


20. Seattle Seahawks: Jordan Addison (WR – USC)

This is one of those “I have no idea” type of picks. The Seahawks could go in any number of directions in Round 1, especially since they have two picks (the first of which is No. 5).

As a result, I’m essentially using this pick as an opportunity to slot a necessary guy into Round 1, and the team-position fit is good enough: Despite drafting D’Wayne Eskridge at pick No. 56 in 2021, they still don’t have a good No. 3 wide receiver to play alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

As a 19-year-old true sophomore, Addison won the 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award as the top pass catcher in college with 100-1,593-17 receiving in 14 games. He should be a Week 1 starter.

With Addison, the Seahawks could have the league’s best wide receiver trio.

Team Needs: DT, EDGE, WR, C, LB, CB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence


21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)

Smith-Njigba’s draft stock has tanked since summer due to a hamstring injury that derailed his junior season.

But that’s nonsense. It’s not as if he played poorly in 2022. He just hardly played. When we last saw him healthy — in 2021 — he was the No. 1 pass catcher (95-1,606-9 receiving) in an Ohio State offense that also had Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Smith-Njigba offers tremendous value at No. 21 to the Chargers. They seem set at wide receiver, given that Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are all under contract for the next two seasons — but Allen is a candidate for release or trade, and Palmer is upgradable.

Team Needs: WR, DT, LB, OL, CB, S
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Michael Mayer


22. Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt (WR – Tennessee)

Three wide receivers in a row? Yep. This is part of the wide receiver power alley.

Over the past four years, the Ravens have drafted four wide receivers with top-100 picks (Marquise BrownMiles BoykinDevin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman) — and yet they still need help at the position.

After doing little for his first two years in college, Hyatt broke out last year as a junior with a Biletnikoff-winning campaign.

  • 2020 (8 games): 20-276-2 receiving
  • 2021 (9 games): 21-226-2 receiving
  • 2022 (12 games): 67-1,267-15 receiving

With speed, Hyatt feels like a good long-term replacement to Brown, whom the team traded during the 2022 draft.

Team Needs: WR, CB, EDGE
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Jordan Addison


23. Minnesota Vikings: Emmanuel Forbes (CB – Mississippi State)

Nos. 1-2 CBs Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan are 2023 free agents — and they could both use upgrades anyway.

A 2022 All-American, Forbes is currently my frontrunner to be the No. 6 corner selected, but he’s in a tight competition with CBs Deonte Banks, Antonio Johnson and Clark Phillips.

Team Needs: CB, DL, WR, C, LB, RB, QB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Antonio Johnson


24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dalton Kincaid (TE – Utah)

In a class that has great depth at tight end, multiple players at the position are likely to go in Round 1, and right now I like Kincaid as the No. 2 option after Michael Mayer, but Luke Musgrave and Darnell Washington are realistic candidates.

Kincaid isn’t a two-way tight end: He’s not likely to develop into an above-average blocker. But he might be the best receiving tight end in the class. In his two seasons as a starter for the Utes, he exhibited a dynamic skill set.

  • 2021 (13 games): 36-510-8 receiving
  • 2022 (12 games): 70-890-8 receiving

With WRs Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Calvin Ridley and Jamal Agnew, the Jaguars are presumably settled at wide receiver, but they could still aid QB Trevor Lawrence by getting him a replacement for TE Evan Engram, who enters free agency off maybe the best year of his career.

Team Needs: OT, TE, DT, CB, S
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Anton Harrison


25. New York Giants: Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)

When former All-Pro WR Steve Smith is hyping up a guy, I guess one must listen.

This is the first mock in which I’ve included Flowers, but that shouldn’t be taken as a sign that I don’t like him. He was the No. 1 pass catcher for Boston College for three years, and he also has some ability as a runner.

  • 2020 (11 games): 56-892-9 receiving | 11-41-1 rushing
  • 2021 (12 games): 44-746-5 receiving | 7-69-0 rushing
  • 2020 (12 games): 78-1,077-12 receiving | 12-40-0 rushing

He’s a great technician as a route runner.

But he’s small (5-10, 172 pounds), old (23 in September) and relatively unpedigreed (three stars as a recruit).

That doesn’t mean he can’t have NFL success — but he doesn’t fit the profile of wide receivers who typically go on Day 1.

Still, I can’t ignore his rising draft stock, and I need to mock a pass catcher to the Giants, who last year had a top-three wide receiver cohort of Darius Slayton, Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins.

Contrarian is the mock draft that doesn’t have a wide receiver going to the Giants in Round 1.

Team Needs: WR, RB, C, S, CB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba


26. Dallas Cowboys: Drew Sanders (LB – Arkansas)

Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones might expire from excitement if the team actually makes this pick.

Razorback + linebacker = Razorbacker

Maybe the only thing Jones loves more than Razorbacks are linebackers, and since 2010 Jones has taken five off-ball linebackers in the first two rounds of the draft.

Clearly, the Cowboys have no issues investing in the position, where they could be thin in 2023 given that Parsons now plays primarily at edge and Vander Esch and Anthony Barr are both slated for free agency.

The No. 1 “athlete recruit” in the 2020 class, Sanders broke out in his lone season at Arkansas (103 tackles, 13.5 for loss, 9.5 sacks) after transferring from Alabama.

In a weak class for the position, Sanders is competing with Trenton Simpson to be the No. 1 off-ball linebacker selected.

Team Needs: OL, WR, S, CB, LB, RB
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Trenton Simpson


27. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence (OL – Florida)

The Bills could do almost anything, but I need to get Torrence into Round 1 of the mock, and they seem like the team in this range most likely to go with an interior lineman.

A 2022 All-American with four years as a starter, a delightful mean streak and elite size (6-5, 347 pounds), Torrence would be a backbone-fortifying member of the offensive line at almost any position.

And the Bills have needs: LG Rodger Saffold and OLs Greg Van Roten and David Quessenberry are free agents.

Team Needs: OL, WR, RB, LB, S, EDGE
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Brian Branch


28. Cincinnati Bengals: Broderick Jones (OT – Georgia)

Like Paris Johnson, Jones entered college with five stars and was widely regarded as a top-two offensive tackle in his recruitment class. After redshirting his first year and opening his second season as a rotational player, Jones closed out his freshman campaign with four starts at left tackle, and then as a sophomore he made 15 more starts on the blindside — and didn’t allow a single sack all season.

In taking Jones, the Bengals give themselves flexibility on the offensive line, as RT La’el Collins (knee) is uncertain for 2023 after suffering a season-ending injury in Week 16 and LT Jonah Williams is a free agent in 2024.

Team Needs: OL, CB, S, TE
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Darnell Washington


29. New Orleans Saints: Lukas Van Ness (EDGE – Iowa)

HC Dennis Allen is a defensive guy, and the Saints need more bodies at edge rusher: Marcus Davenport and Tanoh Kpassagnon are free agents in 2023, and Cameron Jordan turns 34 this upcoming season and will be a free agent in 2024.

Van Ness has a decent chance to be the No. 4 edge in the class after the top triumvirate of Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy. Over the past six months — and really since just December — Van Ness has transformed from an unknown to a mock draft up-and-comer.

With his size (6-5, 275 pounds), Van Ness can contribute as both a run defender and pass rusher on the perimeter.

Team Needs: QB, DT, EDGE, OL, WR, LB, CB
Prospect Profile

Pick via San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins & Denver Broncos
Previous Pick: Isaiah Foskey


30. Philadelphia Eagles: Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)

No team needs to draft a running back in Round 1 — but Robinson needs to be included in my mock, and the Eagles could let RBs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott both walk in free agency this offseason. The idea of Robinson playing with QB Jalen Hurts in the Eagles’ run-friendly offense is an intriguing one, and there’s an outside chance that they could talk themselves into selecting Robinson with their first pick at No. 10.

A unanimous All-American this past season, Robinson has been viewed as the No. 1 back of the 2023 draft class ever since he entered college — and he didn’t disappoint in his three years at Texas.

  • 2020 (9 games): 86-703-4 rushing | 15-196-2 receiving
  • 2021 (10 games): 195-1,127-11 rushing | 26-295-4 receiving
  • 2022 (12 games): 258-1,580-18 rushing | 19-314-2 receiving

Whenever sportsbooks post odds for No. 1 running back drafted, I’ll probably put some money on Robinson — because whatever the odds are they will almost certainly still be too long.

Team Needs: DT, EDGE, CB, LB, RB, S
Prospect Profile


31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison (OT – Oklahoma)

I’d like to get QB Patrick Mahomes a pass catcher, given that WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson are 2023 free agents.

But there’s no receiver on the board who feels like a first-rounder, and I could see the Chiefs investing in their offensive line, given that both LT Orlando Brown and RT Andrew Wylie are both 2023 free agents (although Brown is likely to get the franchise tag again).

Harrison could be a capable replacement for either Brown or Wylie: He has three years of experience, youth (just turned 21) and recruitment pedigree (four stars).

Team Needs: OT, WR, CB, Edge, S
Prospect Profile
Previous Pick: Jalin Hyatt

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

Mock-to-Mock Round 1 Movement

Since the previous mock draft, here are the players to move into and out of Round 1.

  • Players Into Round 1: CB Emmanuel Forbes, TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Zay Flowers, LB Drew Sanders
  • Players Out of Round 1: CB Antonio Johnson, LB Trenton Simpson, TE Darnell Washington, EDGE Isaiah Foskey

Players on the Borderline of Rounds 1-2

Here are players I considered for inclusion in my mock draft. I expect this list to get shorter the closer we get to the draft.

Running Back

Tight End

Offensive Tackle

Center

Edge Defender

Defensive Tackle

Off-Ball Linebacker

Cornerback

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