With the NFL reaching the month of June, we are right around the corner from preseason games and then the regular season. During this period, avid fantasy football players have begun drafting, mock drafting and doing their research to dominate their leagues. An expert fantasy football player considers which players sit within the “overvalued players” position at their average draft position (ADP).
This article will give you multiple overvalued players lurking within your drafts. We will also break down some other players at the position that can meet or exceed the overvalued player with a lower ADP.
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Early Overvalued Players (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are some players that are being overvalued early in the fantasy football draft season.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) | ADP 40
The biggest issue with T.J. Hockenson is that he mostly sits within his ADP, being in this fourth-round range. However, the Vikings drafted a first-round wide receiver, Jordan Addison, with a fantastic route tree who can separate with the best of them. The addition of Jordan Addison is an upgrade from Adam Thielen, which means the Vikings will have three targets who can separate and need to feed them their respective target share. Hockenson will need help finding a way to repeat his 2022 Minnesota numbers, where he averaged 8.6 targets and had 60 catches in ten games.
At his ADP sits names such as Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones, Calvin Ridley, Joe Mixon, and Amari Cooper. After Travis Kelce gets drafted (ADP 4 at the time of the article), risking the volatility that is the tight end position this early in the draft is too much risk and not enough reward for you to navigate the 2023 fantasy season successfully.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) | ADP 51
Dameon Pierce struggled to command a backfield in college. However, once he entered the NFL last season, he faced a backfield where the next best player was Rex Burkhead, allowing him to command the workhorse role with the Houston Texans. The issue in 2023, the Houston Texans went out in the off-season and signed Devin Singletary, a more talented and capable back than anyone on the roster last season. Singeltary, who dealt with the incoming and higher draft capital rookie in James Cook, still averaged 11 rushing attempts and three targets a game in 2022.
Don’t expect the Houston Texans to bring Devin Singletary into this organization and not use him. With the addition of Singelatry into the offensive scheme, John Metchie returning from illness, and Dalton Schultz heading into town, Pierce is in danger of struggling to break the 200-carry mark after producing 220 carries last season. If Dameon Pierce doesn’t provide volume, it can be a long season for fantasy football owners.
It can become even more of a headache for him if DeAndre Hopkins does sign back with the Houston Texans this offseason. At his ADP, you could draft J.K. Dobbins(ADP 53) or Miles Sanders (ADP 55) and sit in better situations regarding your running back room.
George Kittle (TE – SF) | ADP 57
George Kittle is a fantastic personality that can entice a fantasy manager with a boom week of 100 yards and two touchdowns. However, his situation is less than ideal, especially when tied to that higher ADP. The first issue with the San Francisco 49ers is the quarterback situation. If you believe the reports, we are still determining if the team will start Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, or even Sam Darnold. So, we deal with an inconsistent vibe in San Francisco in 2023. Now we have to look into a debate point used all off-season: George Kittle with Brock Purdy is elite.
George Kittle provided three top-five tight ends finishes from weeks 12-17 when Purdy was under center. Kittle also scored seven touchdowns during that span. However, many managers must remember that Deebo Samuel missed three weeks (15-17). Brandon Aiyuk also posted two games with less than five targets, something that should not happen within 2023 if this offense is to flourish on the field. When all three players are healthy and with CMC in their backfield, the ability to command an elite target share becomes harder for George Kittle.
For the ADP attached to George Kittle, we could draft some of the options above in the Lawrence section and come back to pair our team with Kyle Pitts (ADP 64) to elevate our squad higher than we would if we drafted Kittle. However, if we are drafting a tight end from a team with questions at quarterback, drafting Kyle Pitts, who faces the easiest schedule in the NFL and pairing him with a talented player in the fifth sounds like the better approach for our fantasy teams.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) | ADP 60
Trevor Lawrence was on many fantasy managers’ radars after his 2022 season. After a rough rookie season under the watch of first-year head coach Urban Meyer, Lawrence took off with his new coach, Doug Pederson, leaving all of us in fantasy football land enthralled with his future. He also receives a talented weapon to the Jacksonville arsenal with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension. So why do we question Trevor Lawrence and consider him a threat to be overvalued player?
Trevor Lawrence’s ADP is the primary concern for his value this season, as he will be in the top five rounds in your draft. Unfortunately, to draft, Lawrence will leave you missing out on talented players in the same ADP range, such as Jerry Jeudy (56), Drake London (59) and Cam Akers (64), who can all help your team reach the promised land in 2023. Trevor Lawrence shouldn’t be an all-out fade for fantasy, yet the concern comes from his ceiling of fantasy points per game.
Trevor Lawrence has a plethora of weapons, with Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, which seems beautiful on paper. However, per Sleeper, Trevor Lawrence finished only eight games last season as a QB10 or better. He also posted a 7.0 yards per attempt (YPA) which sat at 18th overall in the NFL. A 50% hit rate for the top ten quarterbacks in a week for a fifth-round pick must provide more value for your fantasy team.
Finally, we take a quick look at the schedule for the Jacksonville Jaguars. In 2023, The Jaguars face the AFC South and the NFC South. The consensus believes these two divisions will be something other than a juggernaut opponent. For Lawrence, this brings his chances of being in a shootout and providing optimal fantasy points to a lower percentage than other quarterbacks around the league.
Trevor Lawrence is talented, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have the chance to outperform their projections this season. However, the risk is as significant as the reward, with Trevor Lawrence tied to a fifth-round ADP.
A player who can be comparable to Lawrence resides under center in Seattle. Geno Smith can provide upside potential, has great weapons, and finished QB5 last season. According to our ADP, Geno can be drafted 42 picks later, allowing you to stockpile talent elsewhere while drafting a quarterback who faces the Rams twice, the Cardinals twice, the Lions, the Commanders, the Panthers and the Titans this upcoming season.
Remember to read the fantastic work here at FantasyPros, and if you ever need advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter at @jpep20. Good luck in 2023!