In the beginning, it’s the rookie fever dream. Like a newborn filly, most NFL newcomers begin on wobbly legs and take a good while to find their bearings and snap into form. The curmudgeons in the coaching ranks are often wary of late bloomers and keep their expectations bridled.

Sophomoric swooning is next. The rookies who broke out are on a hot air balloon ride directly into a thunderstorm of daggers. “Potential can get you fired.” Second-year players are now burdened with expectations and growing responsibilities, like Luisa in the movie Encanto. With only a binding contractual safety net, the yearlings seek to leap ever higher.

The drumbeat reaches a crescendo in dynasty fantasy football leagues in year three. Some of those birds have soared like eagles and become the face of the sport by now. Most are still awkwardly flapping erratically in a concerning pattern, occasionally flashing that problematic potential that endeared them to decision-makers once the beaks first breached the eggshell.

To cease the bird analogy, there are no predators lurking here. The culling happens naturally, as Darwin would succinctly put it. The strongest survive, while the weak perish and are forced into alternate means of earning an income. Dynasty managers expend valuable draft capital to fortify their rosters with players under the belief that they will earn and maintain roles that prove them to be assets. Year three is when the umbilical cord is severed.

Below are 10 players entering their third season in the NFL. The 2021 Draft class is an especially illustrious collection of skill players. Some of these guys are held in truly high regard already, and the hope is to attain fantasy superstardom. Others have underwhelmed to date, and the jury (us) is sequestered in anticipation of the next shoe dropping. Sink or swim. Feast or famine. Make or break. Let’s decode the dynasty cipher.

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Third-Year Dynasty Breakouts

Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)

The Cardinals have really made a dizzying series of football transactions over the past few years. Rondale Moore’s selection in the second round out of Purdue might not even crack the short list of questionable moves, but that’s the last height joke I’ll make. Moore is a lightning bolt. His football skill and athleticism are not in question. His fluid role in a new offense riddled with question marks is chilling.

New head coach Jonathan Gannon is defense-oriented. Former Browns QB coach Drew Petzing has been tabbed as offensive coordinator, leading me to believe we’re looking at a Stefansky disciple who will act as the antithesis of Kliff Kingsbury. More 12-Personnel (One RB, Two TE) fits this roster well with Zach Ertz and Trey McBride. But where to put a 5-foot-7, 180-pound purse pistol? I’m afraid I can’t trust Rondale to get enough meaningful touches to invest in him in dynasty, regardless of whether Kyler Murray is on the field.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

The Unicorn is a paradox. More Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones than Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Pitts’ potential promises us the galaxy. Meanwhile, the astronomers who can help discover this new corner of the universe have forgotten to uncap the telescope lens. He is no more of a tight end than I am a hobbit, but it takes a village to embrace the remarkable and nourish him into a flourish.

Pitts was a lion in captivity as a rookie. He was the best outside receiver in the entire league in yards per route run as a 20-year-old, better than Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, or Davante Adams. I was livid when Arthur Smith would routinely pull his 6-foot-6 monster off the field in the red zone. Last season, Smith embraced Pitts as the nightmarish matchup he is and unleashed him down the field in a manner that bent coverage to his whim. Unfortunately, it was undermined by grossly inaccurate passing from Marcus Mariota before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury. Barely half of Pitts’ targets were deemed catchable, despite his eclipse-like radius. He was still among the most-targeted TEs in the league in a snapshot but suffered from an abysmal 38th-ranked target accuracy among TEs (PlayerProfiler).

Desmond Ridder need not light the world on fire for Pitts to incinerate projections. He merely needs to operate the Smith offense efficiently and find his reads in a timely manner. Mariota was often simply behind schedule and missed the built-in windows where his receivers were open and in a position to make plays. This may be the only sliver of a buying window we get on Pitts in dynasty leagues. The risk of more ancillary shortcomings has those rostering Pitts feeling antsy. This is precisely the prospect to gamble on, especially if the formerly priceless commodity is popping up in the classifieds.

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

The 11-toed sixth-round pick from Virginia Tech is an analytics darling, but that’s about the end of his redeeming upside in dynasty formats. He was the more explosive and efficient option for the Bears next to the departed David Montgomery. Unfortunately, the team replaced Monty twofold. The Bears called the second-most run plays in the NFL last season. Justin Fields was mired with shoddy line play and a receiving corps that would struggle to earn scholarships in the Power-5. Regression to more of a balanced attack is expected, leaving fewer opportunities for any RB in a three-headed committee.

D’Onta Foreman has a ruptured Achilles between his 2,000-yard season at Texas and his new digs in Chicago. He is still an ample bruiser plenty capable of seizing high-value opportunities in the rotation. Roschon Johnson is a less-heralded former Longhorn whose profile would be more impressive if simply pried from Bijan Robinson‘s enormous shadow. He is the reason my expectations for Herbert in dynasty have tempered considerably. Although more than “just a guy,” Herbert is in an unenviable position as the hot hand who will have more time to cool and stagnate from neglect.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

The Sun God is a player we refer to as a “dawg.” His athletic profile coming from USC was less than inspiring. No matter, he took notes and outworks the receivers taken before him in 2021 on the daily. Targets are earned, and very few WRs across the league truly earn them like Amon-Ra St. Brown. Despite the label attached to him as a “slot-only receiver,” St. Brown was deployed from the slot on fewer than half of his routes run (ReceptionPerception). He saw plenty of chances as a backfield motion man and outside flanker. Ben Johnson wanted his budding star receiver to get free releases to flash open for Jared Goff in a hurry. ARSB did just that, to the tune of 146 targets in 16 games and a target on more than 32 percent of his routes run (third-highest among WRs; PP).

St. Brown was also gritty after the catch, turning in 513 yards after the reception for the fourth-most among WRs in 2022. This, paired with his prowess in the red zone, certainly makes up for the lack of downfield depth in his role. Johnson is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, and the role of “Bud Light Cooper Kupp,” as coined by Matt Harmon, is tailor-made for a dynasty asset with minimal risk. WR is often a position of weekly volatility, but the Sun God shines in perpetuity.

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

Despite the differences in archetype, plenty of parallels can be drawn between St. Brown and Miami’s mitochondria, Jaylen Waddle. As a rookie, Waddle was the slot-only twitch-open option in an uninspiring Dolphins’ passing game and turned in a rookie record 104 receptions on 142 targets. He averaged fewer than 10 yards per reception that season, then everything changed. Mike McDaniel is one of the unheralded frontal lobes of the Shanahan offensive brain trust. He urged the acquisition of Tyreek Hill and coached up Tua Tagovailoa to become one of the league’s most efficient QBs in 2022.

Waddle exploded, nearly doubling his yards per reception and forming a lethal tandem with Hill that combined for more than 3,000 receiving yards. The splits with a healthy Tua on the field were even more staggering. Apparently, a hyper-accurate passer with two quick-twitch sprinters in the route tree is extremely difficult for a defense to corral. McDaniel is also plenty content to abandon the traditional running game to exploit favorable matchups at all three levels of the passing game. Waddle is one of the only players with WR1 overall upside who is not sporting an appropriate price tag.

Mac Jones (QB – NE)

In an argument between dissenting accounts, the truth often lies somewhere in the gray area between the poles. Mac Jones was not entrusted with a long leash as a rookie signal caller in 2021 but was among the most accurate passers in the NFL nonetheless. His air yards per target were respectable, and he was lethal under pressure. Josh McDaniels, for all his warts, had his young QB ready to play every week. The game plan was clear, and the first-round pick looked sharp.

Last season was a cruel joke in New England. The organized nature of QB development and implementing clear expectations for gaining yards and scoring points was utterly ripped away. Jones went from the prospect with surgical accuracy and a gutsy swagger to a frustrated and flustered shoulder shrugger who saw an undrafted rookie supplant him in spots. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were drowning, flailing, and sucking Jones into the undertow. Experiment: Failed. Bill O’Brien recoups his prior seat from 2011, overseeing an offense with some promise. Step one: get Mac back on track.

Jones is not your prototypical fantasy QB. He is not mobile, nor does he figure to light up the scoreboard through the air. I wouldn’t mind him as a second QB in SuperFlex with six-point passing touchdowns. He is currently underrated because of 2022’s Shakespearean fate. He is a better real-life QB than a fantasy stalwart.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

Baby, you’re a firework. Katy Perry plays in my mind whenever I pop in the DeVonta Smith tape. Never has a WR been such a creator and separator at a weight that would concern basketball scouts. It has become evident to everyone now that BMI doesn’t matter in this instance. The Slim Reaper excels because you can’t jam what you can’t touch. Smith’s career launched into a new stratosphere, thanks to the Howie Roseman fleece cardigan special acquiring AJ Brown from the Titans. Brown’s presence as a dominant X-receiver put Smith in a position to kill coverage by a thousand cuts from the slot and flanker.

The wispy Heisman winner from Alabama used his elite quickness and football intelligence to tear it up in 2022. He amassed nearly 1,200 receiving yards on 95 receptions and scored seven touchdowns. His 15.0 fantasy points per game put him in high-end WR2 territory but seemed like the ceiling still towered overhead. Shane Steichen’s departure to Indianapolis takes away some of the meteoric hopes for this offense, but Smith’s talent has hardly peaked. The internal promotion of Brian Johnson was a brilliant move and removes any apprehension due to unfamiliarity or turnover. I want DeVonta Smith on every single dynasty roster of mine.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

Alabama WRs are a sterling collection of bona fide studs, but the RBs have run the gamut from aliens (Derrick Henry) to complete flameouts (Trent Richardson). Where does Najee Harris fall along this spectrum? I hold a special place in my heart for fellow Northern California natives, but I would be lying if I was enamored with Harris in dynasty formats. Najee is better than the median Alabama RB, but his career trajectory is concerning.

The old adage in fantasy football is “Volume pays the bills.” Harris was that bell cow during his 2021 rookie campaign. The bruising back from Oakland was such a prolific fantasy scorer that season because of his receiving role. 74 of his 381 touches that season were receptions, which he turned into 467 yards and three receiving touchdowns. While he matched his touchdown total in 2022, his receiving volume was slashed in half. The Big Ben check-downs were gone, and rookie Jaylen Warren was the much more explosive and efficient option, seizing 28 receptions on 33 targets and averaged two whole yards more per reception than Harris.

This trend is bound to continue, with Warren carving out a larger slice of the pie in the Steel City. Harris’ rushing volume might not wane, but his days as a top-10 fantasy RB are vaporized without that pass-catching role. Add in the lack of firepower in the Steelers’ passing game with Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Matt Canada and Najee will continue to face loaded boxes behind a below-average offensive line. My advice would be to get as much return as possible and cut bait in dynasty.

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)

I consider about half of the starting TEs in the NFL to be anonymous faces for fantasy purposes. Pat Freiermuth is smack dab in the faceless horde, where guessing the fantasy-viable weeks is a crapshoot. The Muth is a very good all-around football player. He is a consistent performer in his role, but that does not translate to the stat sheet very often. A dynasty manager without an elite TE on the roster would be content with Freiermuth as a consolation, but left yearning for excitement and the rush of volatility.

I do like the verticality in Freiermuth’s role. He was top-five among TEs in 2022 in air yards and deep targets (PP). Unfortunately, he only scored two touchdowns with Pickett at the helm, down from seven the year prior. He was also only targeted 10 times in the red zone all season, a metric in which he led all NFL TEs in 2021 with twice as many (20). Like a more traditional inline version of Kyle Pitts, Freiermuth is muzzled by conservative coaching and insipid QB play. If you believe in Pickett’s ascent, then Freiermuth’s value should mirror that sentiment.

Justin Fields (QB – CHI)

Helmet scouts wrote off Justin Fields years ago. Ohio State QBs don’t do well at the NFL level, after all. The loud few in the bigoted underground couldn’t fathom a black mobile QB could also be a prolific passer, yet it was the magic in his right arm that was the prevailing attribute during his time in Columbus. Fields can’t win. Fields can’t throw. The young man is on the precipice of hitting the hater mute button and blossoming into one of the faces of the NFL.

Rookie Justin Fields was set up to fail, which he did. Adam Gase put cement slippers on his franchise’s top pick behind an atrocious offensive line. There was no pre-snap motion. Not a hint of run-pass option or latitude to change protections or hot routes at the line of scrimmage were allowed, all of which he did plenty in college with extreme success. 2022 was (a little bit) better. Waggles and bootlegs forced defenders to chase the speedy signal caller once they breached the still-porous protection. The receiving corps was a symbol of the rebuild underway, with nary a man reliably getting open for Fields. He barely topped the all-important 60-percent completion rate, which is the unofficial barometer for accuracy at this level. His 17 touchdown passes paled compared to his rushing production. Fields was prodigious, with 1,173 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He is the Konami Code: Personified.

The Bears improved their offensive line during the offseason. They also acquired DJ Moore from the Panthers in a trade that yielded top overall pick Bryce Young for Carolina. Full demonstrated confidence in their starting QB was cemented. Moore has been a target-hogging playmaker since day one in the NFL and gives the offense a young passing duo to build around. Fields is not a dainty little thing who will break down from his rushing volume. He is a bigger guy and, more importantly, savvy with running out of bounds and sliding instead of taking unnecessary contact. Fields will progress as a passer, making his QB5 season in points per game his baseline. He is firmly in my top-5 dynasty QBs, and that won’t be as brazen of a notion this time next year.

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