Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 4 (2023)

Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another. 

In recent years, targets and target share have become important to how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value. 

Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play – and thus big fantasy point – potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road. 

Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from the week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems. 

Stats via FTNFantasy.com

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

There were some interesting results among the top 10 quarterbacks in air yards last week. Five of the top 10 leaders in air yards finished as top-11 fantasy quarterbacks. The other five finished 20th or worse in fantasy points. Of course, plenty of factors contribute to fantasy success besides air yards. For example, Tua Tagovailoa only had 150 air yards last week, but I don’t think any of his fantasy managers are complaining about his overall QB2 finish. The same sentiment goes for those with Lamar Jackson (189, QB3) and Patrick Mahomes (223, QB5).

Jordan Love led the way in Week 3 air yards as he led the Green Bay Packers to a spirited fourth-quarter comeback in his first start in Lambeau Field. The issue for fantasy managers is that the volume (44 pass attempts, nine rushing attempts) is not something the Packers want Love to replicate every week. Love had more air yards last week than he had in his previous two games combined. Having said that, it was an impressive performance without arguably the team’s best running back and best receiver against a good defense. Both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are questionable for Thursday night’s matchup against the Detroit Lions. Improved consistency may mitigate lower volume if Jones and/or Watson are in the lineup. I expect Jordan Love to be a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Week 4. 

Matthew Stafford is the only NFL quarterback who has finished in the top 10 in air yards in all three weeks. Yet, it has not quite translated into fantasy points. Stafford is airing it out quite a bit. However, the veteran has just two touchdown passes to show for his efforts. His 1.6 touchdown percentage is 33rd among 34 qualified quarterbacks. Hopefully, some positive touchdown regression is headed Stafford’s way. Perhaps the eventual return to actual of Cooper Kupp can assist in that endeavor. Stafford and the Rams face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most passing yards this season. I expect the Rams to continue their pass-happy ways in this game, which should create a path for fantasy points for Stafford in what could be a sneaky shoutout in Indianapolis. 

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

First, a message to anyone in any of my leagues. Tyreek Hill finished outside the top 10 in air yards last week. This is a definite sign of decline, and you must trade him to me immediately. Allow me to carry that burden for you for the remainder of the season. It’s the least I can do. OK, now that that’s out of the way…interestingly enough, there was a great carryover from air yards to fantasy production at the wide receiver position last week. Don’t tell that to Alec Pierce, who finished fourth in air yards and 65th in fantasy points. But the rest of the wideouts were all starting caliber, with eight of the top 10 finishing as top-20 fantasy wide receivers, including seven of the top 13 at the position.

Two sets of teammates finished inside the top 10 in air yards, and they are not necessarily who you would expect. Jimmy Garoppolo dropped back 49 times in last week’s loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a result, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers saw plenty of work. The pair was targeted on 32 of Garoppolo’s 44 passes. Adams scored twice, while Meyers failed to reach pay dirt. Still, he had a solid day at the office, catching seven passes for 85 yards. Meyers has double-digit targets in both his starts and looks like a value play in fantasy leagues. His Week 4 opponents, the Los Angeles Chargers, have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. 

Not to be outdone, the Carolina Panthers drew up 62 (!) pass plays for (checks notes) Andy Dalton. The crazy thing to me is that Carolina was either leading or down by just one score for the majority of this game. Carolina’s pass-happy antics created big games for both DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. Chark had 86 yards and a touchdown, while Thielen turned back the clock with an 11-145-1 performance. It remains to be seen if rookie quarterback Bryce Young will be back in the fold for Carolina in Week 4. Regardless of who is under center, Chark and Thielen could be viable fantasy performers against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to enemy wideouts through three weeks. I prefer Thielen over Chark in formats incorporating PPR or half-PPR scoring. 

The Top 10 Tight Ends

The good news is that Kyle Pitts is the only tight end to appear on this list in each of the season’s first three weeks. The bad news is that it has not yet translated into much fantasy production. Pitts enters Week 4 tied for 20th at the position in fantasy points. He has yet to finish inside the top 15 in any single week thus far. However, not all hope is lost. Pitts is tied for the team lead in targets, and he leads the Falcons in air yards. He also leads all tight ends in air yards while ranking among the top 10 at the position in targets. Perhaps we need to adjust our preseason adjustments when it comes to the Falcons’ passing game. But I still believe Kyle Pitts can be a fantasy asset. 

Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions is one tight end who continues to exceed preseason expectations. The rookie has been a TE1 in 12-team leagues in each of his first three weeks in the NFL. That is no small task, even playing a position that is not always known for fantasy output. Last week was the first in which LaPorta placed on the air yards list. He has been a reliable target underneath for Jared Goff, and last week was the recipient of a deep ball that went for an easy score. LaPorta has proven he can score fantasy points regardless of his aDOT, which is promising for his fantasy prospects. His Week 4 matchup in Green Bay is not ideal, but I would continue to roll LaPorta out there unless I had an obvious better option. And, no, that does not include Kyle Pitts. 

The Top Five Underperformers

For this section of the air yards report, I will continue to focus on the wide receiver position. We know that running back and tight end targets generally occur within close proximity of the line of scrimmage. I will also continue to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume. 

In each of the first two weeks of the 2023 season, two rookies appeared in this section of the report. One is Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks. The other is Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, we saw how much of an impact total targets can have when it comes to fantasy production. That is especially true when it comes to wideouts who are on the receiving end of short throws. Downs was targeted 12 times, grabbing eight for 57 yards. He finished the week as the overall WR36. Smith-Njigba was targeted just three times, hauling in one for 10 yards. He finished the week as the overall WR103. Neither player saw a huge shift in his aDOT last week. But volume remains king, and Downs was a beneficiary in Week 3. 

Elijah Moore is a player to keep an eye on. His fantasy production has not jumped off the page so far this season. That may have some antsy fantasy managers on edge. However, his usage has been extremely encouraging. Moore has seen 25 targets and also carried the ball six times. His 31 total opportunities through three weeks put him in the top 15 among wide receivers. Sure, it would be nice to see Moore cross the goalline with the ball in his hands at some point. But I like his Week 4 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. This is the same club that just gave up that WR36 I spoke about earlier to Josh Downs. And that came without the benefit of a touchdown. Moore should be in the Flex conversation in Week 4. 

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