Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets
- ATL -2, O/U 33.5
- Falcons vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last week, with Tim Boyle starting, New York had the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.
- Since Week 6, Atlanta has ranked sixth in neutral pace and second in neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder: Ridder is the QB23 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Ridder ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 20th in CPOE, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth-worst in off target throw rate. Ridder has to face a Jets’ secondary that since Week 7 has held passers to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the 10th-lowest adjusted completion rate. Good luck, Ridder. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit
Tim Boyle: Boyle played about as expected in Week 12. Terribly. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks last week, Boyle ranked fifth-lowest in yards per attempt, 10th-lowest in CPOE, 16th in catchable target rate, and 31st in fantasy points per drop back. The opponent weekly matters little. Boyle is a career backup and he likely continues to play like it. I don’t even know if he finishes Week 13 under center if he continues to play like this in the first half which is the likely outcome. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson: Hello, Bijan Robinson. Over the last two games, we haven’t seen any usage goofiness from the powers that be in Atlanta. I’m hoping that we are over that nonsense. Since Week 10, Robinson has averaged 69% of the snaps with 21 touches and 114.5 total yards per game. Robinson ranks 17th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has seen 75% of the red zone opportunities for the backfield. Since Week 7, the Jets have been a neutral matchup for rushers, ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 16th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Robinson 68.8% zone). Week 13 Positional Value: RB1
Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier has been reduced to desperation flex or handcuff-only status. Over the last two games, he has averaged 28% of the snaps played with 10 touches and 51 total yards per game. If you have Robinson on your roster, hold him. If you have him stashed on your bench, there might be better handcuffs to target on the wire. Week 13 Positional Value: Handcuff
Breece Hall: Hall is operating inside of a broken offense. He has not rushed for more than 50 yards in any game since Week 6. Since Week 6, he has averaged 16.7 touches and 73.8 total yards, with his receiving role doing the heavy lifting. Over those last six games, he has averaged six targets, five receptions, and 43.5 receiving yards per game. Robert Saleh and I can disagree, and that’s fine, but Hall’s issues haven’t been Hall’s issues. This offense is broken, and he has zero running room. Hall has had to do it all alone for weeks. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hall still ranks 19th in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Look at those numbers and tell me that the problem is Hall. It’s not. Since Week 7, Atlanta has been a neutral matchup for backs, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2
Wide Receivers
Drake London: Since Week 2, London has had a 23.0% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. London has three WR2 or higher finishes this season. London is 19th in targets inside the 10-yard line with six looks. This is a brutal matchup for London. New York has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns to perimeter receivers this season. London will run about 74% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (64.9% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (73.5% catch rate and 81.5 passer rating). Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4
Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR22 in fantasy, ranking ninth in deep targets and 13th in red zone targets. Wilson has a 28.7% target share, a 48.7% air-yard share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 40.8% first-read share. A.J. Terrell hasn’t followed a receiver for at least 58% of their routes since he matched up with DeAndre Hopkins in Week 8. Terrell has followed only Calvin Ridley, Hopkins, and Mike Evans for at least 58% of their routes this season. Each of these three receivers finished with at least 38 receiving yards and a score with Terrell in their back pocket. Wilson remains a volume play. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: Pitts is the TE19 in fantasy points per game with zero red zone targets since Week 6. Pitts has surpassed 50 receiving yards only once in his last six games. We’ve reached the point (actually surpassed it) that Pitts is droppable. Until someone else is calling plays in Atlanta, the dream for Pitts to dominate is dead. Pitts hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game since Week 7. New York has smothered tight ends, allowing the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-lowest yards per reception to the position. Week 13 Positional Value: TE2
Jonnu Smith: Smith is in the same boat as Pitts. He is the TE18 in fantasy points per game. Smith has only one red zone target over his last four games. He has surpassed 40 receiving yards in only one game since Week 6. Smith will likely have more streaming-worthy weeks this season, but this isn’t one of them. New York has blanketed tight ends, allowing the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-lowest yards per reception to the position. Week 13 Positional Value: TE2
SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- PIT -6, O/U 41
- Cardinals vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- With Murray back, Arizona has ranked 15th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
- Last week with a new offensive coordinator, Pittsburgh had the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: In his three starts, Murray has finished as the QB13, QB6, and QB9 in fantasy. He has a rushing touchdown in each game while averaging 28.7 yards on the ground with two red zone carries per game. Murray’s rushing production has propped up some rather pedestrian passing numbers. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, and 39th in CPOE and adjusted completion rate. With a banged-up receiving depth chart, Murray is in trouble this week. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. Murray will need every bit of rushing production this week to sneak into the QB1 ranks. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Kenny Pickett: Last week, in his first game with a new playcaller, Pickett looked like a serviceable NFL quarterback. Among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked sixth in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, 11th in aDOT, and second in highly accurate throw rate. He led all quarterbacks with a 12.1% hero throw rate. I got some preseason Pickett vibes. It’s wild to say, but Pickett could post QB1 numbers this week against Arizona. Since Week 7, the Cardinals have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Pickett will have a chance to prove if last week’s showing is real. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2 with upside
Running Backs
James Conner: Last week, the Cardinals were getting blown out, and Conner only played 42% of the snaps. I don’t think that’s indicative of his role. In his previous two games, he averaged 66% of the snaps with 16 touches and 68 total yards per game. Conner ranks ninth in explosive run rate and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt. The volume of previous seasons has not been there this year. Conner has only one game this season with at least 20 carries. Conner is in for a long day in Week 13. Since Week 7, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game while also holding backs to the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2/3
Najee Harris: Harris has finished as an RB2 or higher in five of his last six games (RB13, RB22, RB12, RB9, RB13). Since Week 7, he has averaged 15.6 touches and 71.7 total yards. Harris ranks fourth in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should have another solid day this week. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Harris 56.6% zone) while also ranking 19th in missed tackles allowed per attempt. Over the last three games, Harris has had five red zone opportunities (Warren six). Week 13 Positional Value: RB2
Jaylen Warren: Last week, Warren fumbled for the first time since Week 4. Who knows if that had an impact on his workload, but it has to be mentioned. Over his last four games, Warren has averaged 14.8 touches and 107.6 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, Warren ranks top-two in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Warren can take any touch to the house. Since Week 9, Arizona has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Warren 58.1% zone) while also ranking 19th in missed tackles allowed per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: Brown has not practiced this week (heel). He has been listed as questionable. Brown had a limited practice to open last week before back-to-back DNPs to close last week. Brown ended up playing last week. He played 87% of the snaps last week, drawing a 26.7% target share, a 48.2% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first read share with 2.15 YPRR. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has had the third-highest rate of single-high (66.7%). Brown has had a 27.4% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share against single-high. Brown’s biggest worry is shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. Since Week 9, Porter Jr. has shadowed three times following Ja’Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, and DeAndre Hopkins on at least 76.5% of their routes. Only Chase managed more than 40 receiving yards in Porter Jr.’s (41.2% catch rate and 59.2 passer rating) primary coverage. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3
Michael Wilson: Wilson has been ruled out.
Greg Dortch: With Wilson out, Dortch will crack the starting lineup again. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 76.7% route run rate, a 21.3% target share, a 21.9% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Dortch has run 80% of his routes from the perimeter over the last two weeks while drawing one end-zone target. Since Week 7, Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Dortch is a low-level flex play. Week 13 Positional Value: Low-end flex play
Diontae Johnson: In the six games since his return from injury, Johnson has three games as a WR2 or higher in weekly scoring (WR23, WR20, WR6). Since Week 7, he has had a 26.9% target share, a 45.4% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, Arizona has had the second-highest rate of two high (63.9%). Since Week 7, against two high, Johnson has a 25.6% target share, a 42.3% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 30.8% first read share. Johnson should smash this week. The Cardinals have allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2
George Pickens: Pickens has faded into the background with Johnson back. Since Week 8, Arizona has had the second-highest rate of two high (63.9%). Since Week 7, against two-high, Pickens has a 14.4% target share, a 30.3% air-yard share, 0.71 YPRR, and a 16.9% first-read share. Pickens is always a threat to catch a deep bomb, but he likely doesn’t see a ton of volume this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4
Tight Ends
Trey McBride: McBride didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he returned to limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. With Murray under center, McBride has had a 23.4% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share. With McBride less than 100% and with a tough matchup this week, the wise move is to temper expectations. Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and yards per reception to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1
Pat Freiermuth: Last week, Freiermuth crushed with a 62.2% route run rate, 33.3% target share, 36.6% air-yard share, 5.22 YPRR, and a 37.9% first-read share. Since Week 8, Arizona has had the second-highest rate of two high (63.9%). It is an incredibly small sample size, but over the last two weeks against two high, Freiermuth has a 29.2% target share, a 47.1% air-yard share, 5.71 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. If you expand the sample against two-high to include every game he has been active this season, Freiermuth’s numbers against two-high still pop with a 16.1% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 1.94 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. Freiermuth has returned to the TE1 good graces. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1
SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- TB -5, O/U 36.5
- Panthers vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 7, Carolina has ranked 14th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
- In their last six games, Tampa Bay has ranked 11th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: I would love to tout Bryce Young as a contrarian play to stream this week, but I can’t. Last week against a similarly burnable secondary, Young finished with 194 passing yards, 6.3 yards per attempt, and only 8.1 fantasy points. Young isn’t close to being playable, sadly. He has not thrown for at least 250 yards in any game this season and has only one game with multiple passing touchdowns this season. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a rock-solid QB2 this season that can fall backward into low-end QB1 status in some weeks. Mayfield has five QB1-worthy outings this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 14th in CPOE. Don’t expect much from Mayfield this week, as Tampa Bay should look to feed Rachaad White. Carolina has also been a strong pass defense. Since Week 7, they have kept passers in check with the lowest yards per attempt, fewest passing touchdowns, and the seventh-lowest CPOE allowed. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: With Carolina’s coaching staff getting gutted this week, there’s no telling how the backfield workload will be divided up this week. Approach Hubbard cautiously this week, but the matchup is already horrendous, so it’s not like I’m telling you to fade a player in a smash spot. Last week, Hubbard saw his snap count bounce back with 64% of the snaps played with 19 touches and 92 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay has remained a rock-solid run-stopping unit since Week 7, allowing the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 10th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 61% zone). Hubbard is a shaky flex this week that could flirt with 15-20 touches or see the wrong side of committee work with Sanders. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3
Miles Sanders: Sanders saw his work cut back to previous levels last week with 36% of the snaps played with 15 carries and only 28 rushing yards. Sit Sanders this week. It’s possible that he could lead this backfield in touches with the coaching staff shakeup, but there’s no way to project that confidently. Even when he has been a workhorse for this team, he hasn’t been very productive. The matchup is also brutal on the ground this week. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 10th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Sanders 63.9% zone). Week 13 Positional Value: Sit
Rachaad White: White is the RB10 in fantasy, coming off arguably his best game of the season with his first 100-yard rushing game of the year. White has averaged 18.0 touches and 83.9 total yards per game. He is sixth in snap share, ninth in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. While White has piled up volume on the ground, ranking 11th in carries, his saving grace has been the pass game usage, ranking ninth in targets, third in receptions, and second in receiving yards among backs. While White’s tackle-breaking hasn’t been amazing, he has shown some signs of life here since Week 8. Over the last five weeks among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina remains a team that you can run on. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 11th-highest zone success rate (White 53.8% zone) and the seventh-highest rate of missed tackles per attempt and rushing touchdowns. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: After his hot start to the season, Thielen has cooled off considerably since Week 8. Over his last five games, he has surpassed 70 receiving yards only twice, with a 24.4% target share, a 25.5% air-yard share, 1.15 YPRR, and a 30.2% first-read share. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has utilized single-high at the 11th-highest rate (59.8%). Thielen has been the team’s single-high beater this season with a 26.8% target share, a 33.1% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 35.8% air-yard share. Thielen will run about 70% of his routes against Christian Izien (80% catch rate and 104.1 passer rating). This could be the Thielen bounceback spot. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2
Mike Evans: Evans has been amazing this season. He has rebounded nicely this season after everyone (myself included) wrote him off, with Mayfield chucking him passes. Evans is the WR8 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets. 55% of his red zone target volume this season has come in the last four games. Evans has a 23.3% target share, a 41% air-yard share, 2.57 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share this season. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.8%). Among 123 qualifying receivers against single-high, Evans ranks 12th in expected fantasy points per route run. Carolina has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target this season to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1
Chris Godwin: Godwin has endured a tough season as the WR41 in fantasy. Godwin hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points since Week 8 against Buffalo, which was only the second time all season he has surpassed 14 fantasy points in a game. Since Week 8, Carolina has utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate (63.8%). Against single-high, Godwin has a 22.7% target share, a 23.3.% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. Among 123 qualifying receivers against single-high, Godwin ranks 39th in fantasy points per route run and 41st in expected fantasy points per route run. Carolina has allowed the 10th-most PPR points per target this season to perimeter wide receivers, so maybe there is some hope Godwin has a mini bounce-back week. At this point in the season, I won’t be surprised if this is just another Evans game. Godwin was limited on Thursday (neck) and didn’t practice on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: Among 37 qualifying tight ends, Otton ranks 20th in target share (13.1%), 31st in YPRR (1.01), and 24th in first-read share (13.2%). Otton is the TE16 in fantasy, ranking tenth among tight ends in red zone targets. Otton has been a TE2 streaming option all season when the matchup has been right. That is not this week. Carolina has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE2
SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders
- MIA -9.5, O/U 49.5
- Dolphins vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Mike McDaniel is our slow-and-throw king. Since Week 7, Miami has ranked 27th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
- Washington has slowed the pace down while continuing to chuck the rock. Since Week 7, they are 15th in neutral pace while leading the NFL in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is the QB12 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 weeks on his 2023 ledger. He ranks second in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in hero throw rate. Tagovailoa will carve up the Washington secondary in Week 13. The Commanders’ pass defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Since Week 7, they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the most passing touchdowns by a wide margin. Since Week 7, they have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, and the next closest teams are Philly, Arizona, and Buffalo, with 12 passing scores each. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1
Sam Howell: Howell continues his ascension up the fantasy quarterback ranks. He is up to QB8 in fantasy points per game now. He has finished as a QB1 in each of the last five weeks (QB1, QB11, QB4, QB10, QB10). It’s not always pretty, but Howell’s volume is weekly fantasy rocket fuel. He hasn’t attempted less than 42 passes in a game since Week 6. Howell leads the NFL in passing attempts, passing yards, and air yards. Outside of the amazing volume, he has been playing at an exceptionally high level, ranking ninth in adjusted completion rate, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Since Jalen Ramsey‘s return in Week 8, Miami has fielded one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Howell is no stranger to facing tough defenses, as he has tackled the Giants and the Cowboys in the last two weeks and walked away with QB1 days anyway. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert: Mostert didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he participated in practice on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Mostert is the RB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.5 touches and 85.8 total yards. Mostert ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Since losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington’s run defense has been in shambles, giving up the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs. 62.9% of Mostert’s runs have come on zone plays. Mostert should complement Achane this week, but Achane returns to lead this backfield in Week 13. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2/3
De’Von Achane: Achane was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. Achane doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Miami held Achane out previously and waited to bring him back this week. Achane returns to his full workload and leads the backfield this week. As we saw in Weeks 4-5, Achane doesn’t need a ton of volume to pay off big time, though. He averaged 11.5 touches and 142.5 total yards. Since losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington’s run defense has been dreadful, giving up the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs. 51.3% of Achane’s runs have come on zone plays. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1/2 with top-five upside
Brian Robinson: Robinson is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in opportunity share, 14th in weighted opportunities, 12th in carries, and 20th in red zone touches. He has averaged 15.2 touches and 78.1 total yards. His previously lucrative pass game role that helped prop up his fantasy production in Weeks 10-11 evaporated last week with Gibson back. Robinson also saw his snaps dwindle to only 45%. Robinson ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Miami has been a nightmare fuel matchup for backs with the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest missed tackle per attempt rate, and the fewest rushing yards per game allowed. Sit Robinson if you can, but most teams don’t have that luxury. Just understand he likely needs a touchdown to pay off this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3
Antonio Gibson: Gibson has averaged 6.3 touches and 40.3 total yards this season. He only sees empty calorie touches weekly as the RB42 in fantasy. Gibson has only seven red zone touches all season and none since Week 7. Gibson isn’t worth burning a roster spot on at this point. Week 13 Positional Value: Droppable
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: Hill opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He managed limited practices on Thursday and Friday and doesn’t carry an injury designation this week. Hill is the WR1 in fantasy, ranking third in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Since Week 8, Washington has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (42.0%). Against man coverage, Hill has a 32.9% target share, a 50.4% air-yard share, 4.77 YPRR, and a 36.4% first-read share. Those numbers are absolutely bonkers. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: THE WR1
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has raised his season-long stock recently to WR20 after posting top 15 wide receiver finishes in three of his last six games (WR13, WR6, WR15). The problem is in his other three games in that sample, he has finished as the WR27, WR39, and WR36. Waddle still has a similar weekly ceiling as last year, but in 2023, the weekly floor can bottom out at any time. Hill is absorbing so much target oxygen from the passing room weekly that it crushes Waddle’s fantasy stock at times. Since Week 8, Washington has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (42.0%). This is likely one of those weeks where Waddle has a middling game. Against man, Waddle has an 18.9% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 2.57 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3
Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in deep target, but he is only 43rd in red zone targets. He has only one target in the red zone over his last four games. Since Week 8, Miami has the sixth-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.2%). In the nine games this season in which Curtis Samuel has played his usual role, McLaurin has had an 18.8% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 25.2% first-read share against zone coverage. McLaurin has only one end zone target in this sample. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the 13th-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4
Curtis Samuel: Samuel is the WR48 in fantasy points per game who has flashed a high ceiling when the matchup is right. He has four WR2 or higher finishes this season and could add another this week. Since Week 8, Miami has the sixth-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.2%). In the nine games this season in which Samuel has played his usual snap amount, he has had a 13.9% target share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share against zone. Miami has allowed the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied) and the 12th-highest passer rating to slot receivers this season. Samuel will run about 73% of his routes against Kader Kohou (84.6% catch rate and 129.8 passer rating). Samuel should eat this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside
Jahan Dotson: Dotson has had a disappointing season, to say the least, as the WR54 in fantasy points per game. He has only four games this season in which he has finished as a WR3 or better. Since Week 8, Miami has the sixth-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.2%). In the nine games this season in which Samuel has played his usual snap amount, Dotson has had a 14.3% target share, a 20.7% air-yard share, 0.68 YPRR, and an 18.9% first read share. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed the 13th-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Thoma is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with the sixth-most deep targets and the 12th-most red zone looks. He has four weeks with TE1 weekly finishes (TE11, TE10, TE4, TE9). Thomas has a 13.6% target share, 1.17 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share. Thomas could get a volume bump this week, considering the matchup. Miami has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC
