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Fantay Baseball Draft Outlook: Steven Kwan, Luis Arraez, Lars Nootbaar (2024)

Fantay Baseball Draft Outlook: Steven Kwan, Luis Arraez, Lars Nootbaar (2024)

The formulation of my fScores allows me a unique insight into how much plate skills impact fantasy value and it changes drastically depending on league type. The biggest benefactors of points leagues are hitters who have phenomenal plate skills and hitters who get a lot of hits and benefit more from consistent production at high volume rather than being the toolsy guy with a lot of speed. Contrasting from a hitter side, the players that get dinged the most in points leagues are the speedsters and standard, older school leadoff types or players who are a high HR/SB guy with bad plate skills.

In regards to pitching, closers are almost worthless. In some points leagues when you can use SPARPs (Starting Pitchers As Relief Pitchers), all relievers are worthless in comparison to any starter that can be plugged into that relief spot. Keeping in mind that the exact points league value changes will be dependent upon the exact format and valuation of points, some points league types have advantages over others. I prefer Ottoneu FanGraphs’ H2H points as a game style for points leagues, as the Ottoneu format does not allow for the use of SPARPs requiring five RP and utilizing a 40-man roster in a salary-formatted league. Therefore, RP are required and their value is closer to that of a real-life reliever or closer against the inflated cost of closers in saves, category leagues or uselessness of closers in points leagues where you can arbitrage relievers with SPARPs.

One oddity that takes getting used to in the FanGraphs’ points system is how much a pitcher gets dinged for giving up home runs, thus pitchers that pitch a ton of innings without allowing HRs (almost like a QS, but not quite) are well rewarded versus the pitcher that can only pitch 4-5 innings, even if they strike out everyone they face. Innings pitched are critical in almost any points format and to avoid just the glitch of spamming innings, Ottoneu leagues counter with a start cap for the week in weekly leagues – therefore, you need to pick your starts carefully.

We are going to dig into 10 of the biggest ranking differences for hitters in this article. We will, more or less, avoid pitching as a topic after this little intro because the values are all relative to what type of points league and the entire group of RP are just simply less relevant by at least 150-200 players. So just adjust downward by 10-15 rounds in snakes or maybe like 65-75% of value in salary format leagues on all relievers and you will be on the right track. When it comes to starters, just focus more on the high QS guys… anyone who pitches more innings without giving up damage (no HRs, more ground balls) will do well.

For example; Logan Webb was the number two starter in Ottoneu over Spencer Strider in 2023. Players like Webb, Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly and Chris Bassitt play up in this sort of format while guys like Snell, Cease, Glasnow and Baz will all get dinged a little bit in overall value, while their weekly value might be fine.

That’s enough about pitchers, let’s get into the top hitters where the value is drastically different from categories to points leagues in a positive way. These are in no particular order, just the most noteworthy.

*If you are curious about the fScore ratings you can check out my fScore rankings and information.

Biggest Value Changes

Steven Kwan (OF – CLE)

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Steven Kwan 110 168 52 114 114 108 111

Steven Kwan rates fourth in fDiscipline for 2024 and has an insane ability to not strike out, which plays in points leagues where strikeouts are negative points. Kwan doesn’t rate as well in leagues where strikeouts don’t matter because his walk rate, while solid, isn’t elite. He does however get a good number of hits and leads off – the quantity should help drive him in points leagues. In 2023 Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues he finished ahead of guys like Machado, Arenado, Josh Lowe, Jake Burger and Michael Harris II. He rates out as a top 50-60 hitter option, whereas in categories leagues, he’s my 90th overall hitter.

Luis Arraez (1B/3B – FLA)

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Luis Arraez 200 166 66 71 109 116 121

Luis Arraez rates fifth in fDiscipline and easily rates first in fContact, which means a lot of hits – therefore a lot of points. Arraez rates as a top 40-50 hitter in points versus around 75 or so in categories leagues. In 2023 Ottoneu points, Arraez finished ahead of guys like Yordan, Yelich, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bellinger and Harper in overall points. In points per game, he beat out guys like Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor, Christian Walker, Trea Turner, Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Lars Nootbaar (OF – STL)

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Lars Nootbaar 100 156 105 100 99 108 120

Lars Nootbaar ranks as my 10th-best player in fDiscipline and his general well-roundedness plus his amazing plate skills make for a great points player versus a merely solid roto/categories player. Nootbaar ranks as a top 70-ish hitter in categories leagues but in points he ranks closer to a top-50 guy, matching Guerrero Jr. in points/game in Ottoneu in 2023 and beating guys like Jake Burger, Nick Castellanos, Yainer Diaz, Nolan Arenado, Josh Jung and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy


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