Welcome back, champions! The NFL regular season is officially in the books, which means the fantasy football championships are complete! Congratulations on your championship.
But the fun doesn’t have to end with all the ways we can play fantasy football into the real-life NFL playoffs.
As we head into the Conference Championship Round, my focus is playoff outlooks for players. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays and player props. I will address the remaining non-playoff teams, and bye-week teams will be featured in upcoming articles throughout January and the NFL offseason.
Regardless, my goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
PrizePicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Conference Championship Weekend. Roll those season-long winnings into even more cash with playoff football on the horizon. And can’t forget it’s prime contract incentive season.
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Conference Championship Weekend Fantasy Football Forecast
Kansas City Chiefs
Stock Up Travis Kelce | Buy Low Marquise Brown
The Kansas City Chiefs relied on a strong performance from their rushing attack and efficient passing to advance into the AFC Championship. Kareem Hunt led the way in the backfield, rushing 8 times for 44 yards and scoring a red zone touchdown, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
Isiah Pacheco added 18 yards on 5 carries, while Patrick Mahomes ran for 14 yards on 7 attempts. Xavier Worthy had negative rushing yards with losses on his carries.
Pacheco led the first half with four carries to Hunt’s two. Neither were overly effective.
Hunt finished with the higher snap share at 47%, compared to Pacheco’s 31%. Hunt had a few nice runs in the second half, so KC fed him late. He ripped off back-to-back 10-plus yard rushes in the fourth quarter.
Pacheco had a red zone target and two carries in the red zone, but he didn’t score.
I knew there was a chance that we could see a similar split workload between Hunt/Pacheco we saw during the tail end of the regular season, and that’s exactly how things shook out. Pacheco did start, saw touches immediately and had opportunities to score near the goal line. He just didn’t capitalize.
Pacheco has LESS THAN 34.5 rushing yards in four straight games.
Hunt carried the ball 14 times for 60 yards in his first matchup versus Buffalo this season.
In the passing game, Patrick Mahomes completed 16 of 25 passes for 177 yards, throwing 1 touchdown and 1 interception, earning a passer rating of 98.2.
Patrick Mahomes has tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 11 games and in eight of his last 11 home games dating back to last year’s postseason. Take the OVER on 249.5 passing yards this week (opened 241.5).
Travis Kelce was his main target, catching 7 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown (two red-zone targets), including a long reception of 49 yards. He totaled 10 targets with penalties included (32% Target share).
According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce gained 33 yards after missed tackles against the Texans after gaining just 18 yards after missed tackles in the regular season. He was targeted on 3 of 6 routes against man coverage, catching all three targets for 67 yards.
Xavier Worthy contributed 5 catches for 45 yards (six targets, 24% Target share), and No. 2 tight end Noah Gray added 3 catches for 13 yards (three targets).
Worthy and Kelce led the first half with three targets each. Worthy was targeted thrice in the red zone.
Worthy has four catches or more in eight straight games (5-plus in six straight), with 40-plus yards in all contests. Take over/more than for Worthy’s 4.5 receptions.
Back in Week 11 versus the Bills, Worthy led the team with four receptions on five targets (17% Target share), amassing 61 yards and a touchdown. All his production came in the first half.
In his first matchup versus the Bills, Kelce caught just 2 passes on 4 targets for 8 yards. Gray was more involved, recording four receptions on five targets for 23 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 17% Target share.
However, Kelce has also averaged one TD per playoff game in his last 11 postseason games. In his last 14 postseason games, he has 70-plus receiving yards.
Other notable receiving performances included Kareem Hunt, who caught 1 pass for 2 yards, and Isiah Pacheco, who did not record any catches. Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Samaje Perine, and JuJu Smith-Schuster were all limited to no receptions in the game. Perine had a target in the red zone.
Hollywood Brown had two targets in the first half. He was not heavily targeted, but his snaps were a season-high at 67% with his route participation at 71%. He also had an end zone target but also failed to catch a deep ball from his quarterback (67 air yards).
Even though Brown didn’t post a strong box score, the usage was very encouraging for his stats moving forward. Take the over on his 34.5 receiving yards prop (more than 37.5 on Prizepicks). 10 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Brown have gone over their receiving yards projection versus the Bills.
Brown has 45-plus receiving yards in two of his three games played this season.
Hopkins, meanwhile, only played 31% of the snaps. Seems like the Chiefs are still using the veteran very situationally, liking regulating him mostly to red zone usage compared to an every-down role even in the postseason.
Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in seven of his last eight games played with the Chiefs this season including the last two games with Brown in the starting lineup.
Buffalo Bills
Stock Up Khalil Shakir
In the divisional round, the Buffalo Bills had a solid offensive performance led by running back James Cook, who carried the ball 17 times for 67 yards (3.9 average) but did not find the end zone despite seven red-zone carries.
Ty Johnson also contributed in the running game, rushing 5 times for 31 yards (6.2 average), while Ray Davis added 29 yards on 4 carries with a touchdown on his lone red-zone attempt. Josh Allen ran for 20 yards on 10 attempts, scoring two rushing touchdowns.
In the passing game, Josh Allen completed 16 of his 22 attempts for 127 yards and zero touchdowns, as he had to rely more on the running game. His passing efficiency was solid with a rating of 86.7.
Khalil Shakir led the receiving group with 67 yards on 6 catches and seven targets (32% Target share, 27 air yards), including a long reception of 34 yards. Shakir was the only Bills WR to see more than one target in the first half.
According to Next Gen Stats, Shakir recorded all his production against zone coverage, hauling in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards vs. zone (no receptions on one target against man coverage).
Shakir caught a reception against six different Ravens’ defenders, where only Brandon Stevens forced an incompletion as the nearest defender. Shakir’s only incompletion came in a tight window.
Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in 10 of 17 games this season (58%). Take the MORE THAN on his 53.5 receiving yards this week (it opened at 53.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks).
Shakir recorded eight receptions on 12 targets (32% Target share) for 70 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs.
James Cook caught all three of his targets for 15 yards, while Mack Hollins contributed with 12 yards on 1 reception (two targets).
Dalton Kincaid had one catch for 11 yards on two targets. Kincaid has gone over 31.5 receiving yards in 9/15 games this season (60%). But he is clearly dependent on game flow to see higher projected volume.
Other receiver involvement against the Baltimore Ravens:
Ty Johnson: 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 8 yards.
Keon Coleman: 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 5 yards. Coleman picked up a DPI on a deep pass from Allen. He also remained at the top in terms of snaps (66%) and routes run (48%) among Bills wideouts.
Coleman has 26+ receiving yards in six straight road games. Coleman missed the first matchup versus the Chiefs. Among all the Bills WRs, Coleman’s receiving yardage seems the most exploitable. Keep in mind that in half of those road games, he was going for 49-plus receiving yards. Those were all games where the Bills were road underdogs.
The BP projections have him well north of 19 yards (27.2).
Dawson Knox: 2 targets, 1 reception, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 0 yards. He also out-snapped Kincaid again (57% versus 51%) in a run-heavier game script.
Amari Cooper: 1 target, 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 0 yards. He played 34% of the snaps. Cooper secured 2 of 3 targets for 55 yards, averaging 27.5 yards per catch, with a long of 30 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs this season. Leaning toward the MORE THAN on his 1.5 receptions this week. Such a low bar to pass.
However, I think I like his teammate slightly more.
Curtis Samuel had 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 0 touchdowns with a long of 8 yards against the Ravens.
Samuel also had a short 8-yard game taken off on a penalty. He played the 5th-most snaps among Bills WRs. But in the first matchup versus KC, Samuel caught 5 of 6 targets (16% Target share) for 58 yards and a touchdown.
Given the amount of designed targets Samuel gets, I think he easily gets over 1.5 receptions in the rematch versus the Chiefs. He caught three passes in the first half in the 1st Chiefs matchup.
The Bills lost safety Taylor Rapp to injury in this game.
They also relied heavily on the rushing attack, limiting the receivers’ counting stats. Buffalo did not throw in the red zone.
But they could always turn up the passing game if they need to. Last time they played KC. Buffalo posted a +4% pass rate over expectation. Allen completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Allen has attempted fewer than 31.5 passes in four straight games. However, they have all been at home. In Allen’s last four road games, he has gone OVER 31.5 pass attempts and thrown for more than 280 passing yards. If Buffalo wants to win this game in the AFC Championship, they won’t be able to be as conservative as they have been over the last month. Before the final four games of the season, Allen had attempted 32-plus passes in seven of eight games.
Washington Commanders
Stock Up Dyami Brown & Brian Robinson Jr.
Brian Robinson led the way with 77 yards and two touchdowns (four red zone carries) on 15 carries. He finally broke his 5-game TD drought.
B-Rob has been held under 35.5 rushing yards in three of his last six games. But his big game last week is a huge win for him going forward.
The Eagles run defense got run over last week by the Rams, after they lost linebacker Nakobe Dean in the week before. Kyren Williams rushed for 106 yards.
The last four RBs Philly has faced have gone OVER their rushing yards projection. Robinson rushed for 63 yards in the first matchup versus the Eagles but just 24 rushing yards in his second game. But after last week’s performance, I like the MORE THAN his 35.5 rushing yards number.
I also like the MORE THAN on his 9.5 carries. He has only missed this number thrice this season in-game with a healthy Austin Ekeler in the lineup (73%). He averaged 13 carries in the two games versus the Eagles this season.
Jayden Daniels contributed both on the ground and in the air, rushing for 51 yards on 16 carries and throwing for 299 yards, including two touchdown passes.
The rookie QB has 60-plus rushing yards in three of his last five full starts.
What’s more impressive, the Commanders’ signal-caller has also exceeded his passing yards projection in five straight games to end the season (when healthy).
All but three QBs (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Matthew Stafford) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly’s defense since their bye week.
Austin Ekeler had six carries (one in the red zone), 47 yards (7.8 average), 0 touchdowns, long of 35 yards.
Jeremy McNichols totaled four carries, 8 yards (2.0 average), 1 red zone touchdown.
The first half carries were divided 5 to 3 in favor of B-Rob. Robinson finished with a 53% snap share to Ekeler’s 37%.
Dyami Brown was the top performer among the Commanders WRs, catching 6 passes for 98 yards on eight targets. He was involved from the jump, earning five targets in the first half.
80 of his yards on targets 10+ yards downfield per Next Gen Stats. Brown has now totaled 50 or more yards on downfield targets in three of his last four games, after doing so just once in his first 61 career games. He finished with 100 air yards and a 26% Target share.
Terry McLaurin finished with seven targets (two in the red zone), 4 receptions, 87 yards, 1 touchdown, with a long of 58 yards.
Without the huge catch-and-run, McLaurin would have finished with minimal yardage. I like the LESS THAN on his 64.5 receiving yards prop this week. Under in both games versus the Eagles this season. Just check the status of Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchel (hurt last week) before pulling the trigger.
Austin Ekeler commanded 4 targets (one red zone), 4 receptions, 41 yards, 0 touchdowns, long of 24 yards.
Zach Ertz saw 5 targets (three in the red zone), catching all 5 for 28 yards and 1 touchdown with a long of 10 yards.
Jamison Crowder totaled 2 targets, 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 touchdowns, long of 13 yards.
John Bates earned 2 targets (one red zone), 1 reception, 20 yards, 0 touchdowns, long of 20 yards.
Olamide Zaccheaus only had 2 targets (one red zone) and 0 receptions. He got hurt during the game but returned. The Commanders WR finished with a 44% snap share.
RG Sam Cosmi will be out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury. He is the Commanders’ second highest-graded OL player this season per PFF. Trent Scott will replace him. He played well versus Detroit, but Philly’s defense will present another problem for him.
Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up Dallas Goedert | Buy Low A.J. Brown
In the divisional round of the playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles showcased a powerful ground game, led by Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 205 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, including a 78-yard sprint for the longest run of the game. Jalen Hurts contributed significantly as well, running for 70 yards and a touchdown on just 7 carries, averaging an impressive 10.0 yards per attempt with his own 44-yard rushing TD.
Kenneth Gainwell added 10 yards on a single rush.
In the passing game, Hurts completed 15 of 20 passes for 128 yards and no touchdowns, but he was efficient, posting a passer rating of 91.2.
Jalen Hurts has more than 24.5 pass attempts twice in his last 10 games (20%). Hammer the LESS THAN on his pass attempts prop this week on Prizepicks.
The Eagles offense did not throw in the red zone.
As for receiving, Dallas Goedert led the way with 4 receptions for 56 yards, while Barkley added 27 receiving yards on 4 catches.
He has 47 yards in back-to-back favorable matchups and has another good matchup on deck versus the Commanders defense. They have allowed six of the last seven TEs they have faced to go OVER their receiving yards projection.
In Week 11 against the Commanders defense, Goedert caught all 5 of his targets for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per reception, with a long of 32 yards and 31 yards after the catch. 20% Target share.
DeVonta Smith also caught 4 passes for 21 yards. They all had four targets (although DG had a fifth wiped away on a penalty).
Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.
Over the past two seasons, Smith has gone under 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in 79% of his games (15/19).
A.J. Brown, despite 7 targets and a 35% Target share, only had 2 receptions for 14 yards. He had four targets in the first half.
Brown dropped 2 of his 7 targets, snapping his streak of 116 targets without a drop dating back to Week 16, 2023 (next Gen Stats).
Regardless, AJB has been the focal point of the Eagles passing attack. He had five-plus catches in both games earlier this season versus the Commanders, and his receptions prop is down to 4.5. Take the MORE THAN on Prizepicks after he posted a 35% Target share last week.
All things being considered, I think the “safer” bet is the over on the yardage. AJB WR1 can easily break free on a single play and had 65-plus receiving yards in both games versus the Commanders. Marshon Lattimore‘s coverage might make five catches tough (hence the bigger payout) but Brown only needs to beat him once or twice in tight man coverage to go over 60 receiving yards.
Gainwell had a reception for 10 yards, contributing to the balanced offensive attack as the Eagles dominated the ground and controlled the game.
The Eagles win wasn’t without some casualties. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell got hurt in the first quarter and Hurts injured his knee.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles outside cornerbacks were targeted on 26 of Matthew Stafford‘s 44 pass attempts after the Mitchell injury.
Darius Slay was targeted 16 times, the most by any player in a postseason game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Slay allowed 9 receptions for 129 yards across those 16 targets. Mitchell was replaced by Isaiah Rodgers, who allowed 5 receptions for 106 yards on 10 targets.
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