Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Targeting Hitters Early (2025)

With fantasy baseball draft season underway, it’s time to focus on the strategy we want to use in our real drafts. Generally speaking, I always want to focus on hitters early in my drafts and fill out my rotation later on.

Let’s take a look at a couple of different ways you could build your team in a roto or head-to-head categories league while focusing on offensive categories first. Let’s assume we’re building a team for a traditional 5×5 league. Here is our fantasy baseball draft strategy for targeting hitters early.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Targeting Hitters Early (2025)

Philosophy

Why should you prioritize offense in your drafts? The easy answer is that pitchers have more injury risk and our ability to predict who will stay healthy isn’t as good as we think. On top of the injury risk, pitchers usually only contribute to four out of five pitching categories, whereas hitters can contribute to all five offensive categories.

Chris Towers wrote an article for CBS identifying the “SP Dead Zone” as the range of pitchers drafted from rounds four through 10. He explains that the pitchers drafted in this range provided similar value when looking at pitchers drafted from 2015-2024. It makes a ton of sense to wait until the end of that range to target pitchers and capitalize on that value.

In a draft that followed average draft position (ADP) strictly, I would be fine with waiting as late as the fifth round before taking a pitcher. Of course, all drafts are different and you have to adapt to the flow of the draft.

With this approach, you can build a solid offensive foundation without sacrificing any hitting categories.

Starting Your Draft

You really can’t go wrong taking a hitter in the first round. Regardless of where you pick in the first round, there are plenty of studs to go around.

Shohei Ohtani (1.5 ADP) and Bobby Witt Jr. (2.3) provide elite production in all five categories. The only downside to drafting them is their positions are two of the easier positions to fill throughout the draft. They are still well worth their price, though.

Aaron Judge (3.3) and Juan Soto (7.0) will provide elite production in four categories sans stolen bases. They shouldn’t be a zero in the category, but you shouldn’t expect more than 10. Taking either player at their fantasy baseball ADP is fair value — just make sure you don’t forget about steals.

Jose Ramirez (5.0), Gunnar Henderson (6.8), Kyle Tucker (8.5), Mookie Betts (9.3) and Francisco Lindor (12.8) will provide solid numbers in all five categories with varying degrees of ceiling versus floor. Ramirez, Tucker and Lindor are more than capable of putting up 30 homers and 30 steals while batting around .275.

Henderson and Betts have a lower floor in the stolen bases category, but they have 35 homer/20 steal potential while batting .280 or better. Drafting any of these players keeps you from falling behind in any categories early.

Elly De La Cruz (4.5) and Corbin Carroll (10.0) will provide elite runs and steals, but potentially leave you lacking in RBI and batting average. Batting average is one of the toughest categories to make up for later in the draft. If I drafted one of these players, I probably wouldn’t want to follow it up with Matt Olson, Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber in a later round.

Second Round

The second round is hard to mess up but is the start of how your team is going to look. I broke down the nine hitters drafted in the second round into three groups.

The first group consists of Fernando Tatis Jr. (13.3), Julio Rodriguez (15.5) and Jackson Chourio (19.3). All three players have a perceived 20 homer/20 steal floor when healthy, with a much higher ceiling. They have the potential to be five-category studs and move into the first round of 2026 drafts.

The second group is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14.0), Yordan Alvarez (16.8), Bryce Harper (19.8) and Freddie Freeman (22.8). What do these players all have in common? They should provide high-end four-category production and had between two and nine stolen bases last year.

You absolutely should not expect any stolen bases from these guys, but take any that you get as a bonus. Pairing one of these sluggers with De La Cruz or Carroll from the first round makes a ton of sense.

The last group is made up of Jarren Duran (20.5) and Trea Turner (24.5). These guys are perfect if you came out of the first round with Judge or Soto and need steals.

Third Round

Nine more hitters are drafted in the third round.

Ketel Marte (25.3), Matt Olson (28.3), Austin Riley (30.5) and Rafael Devers (30.8) are similar to Judge and Soto from the first round and the second group in the second round. They’re not going to be any help with steals but should be a solid source of counting stats.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (25.5) and Ronald Acuna (27.5) have arguably the highest upside in the round. However, they carry some of the most injury risk of any player from the first three rounds.

William Conteras (32.3) and Manny Machado (32.3) should reach double-digit steals, while Jackson Merrill (28.5) has the potential for 20+ steals with less of a track record.

Fourth Round

The fourth round sees seven more hitters drafted. Who you take with your first three picks will likely decide who you should take in the fourth. All of the hitters should provide solid runs and RBI.

If you need home runs, Pete Alonso (38.5), Corey Seager (41.0), Kyle Schwarber (43.5) and Brent Rooker (48.3) are available.

If you need batting average, Corey Seager and Jose Altuve (46.0) stand out amongst the rest.

If you need steals, you can grab Jose Altuve, Oneil Cruz (46.3) or Wyatt Langford (48.0).

Things to Keep in Mind

I would like to take no more than two of the players I expect little steals from. Taking three of them would potentially dig you a hole in steals. Taking four with your first four picks would be inadvisable.

The fourth round is where I want to make sure I have all of the categories covered.

You could also pay up for an ace in the second or third round. Or you could draft hitters for the next couple of rounds and jump back in on pitchers toward the end of the “SP Dead Zone.”

Articles MLB MLB Draft Advice Shohei Ohtani Bobby Witt Jr. Aaron Judge Juan Soto Jose Ramirez Gunnar Henderson Kyle Tucker Mookie Betts Francisco Lindor Elly De La Cruz Corbin Carroll Matt Olson Pete Alonso Kyle Schwarber Fernando Tatis Jr. Julio Rodriguez Jackson Chourio Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yordan Alvarez Bryce Harper Freddie Freeman Trea Turner Ketel Marte Austin Riley Rafael Devers Jazz Chisholm Jr. Ronald Acuna Manny Machado Jackson Merrill Corey Seager Brent Rooker Jose Altuve Oneil Cruz Wyatt Langford