As my children can attest, I’m old. Old enough to remember when fantasy sports were primarily conducted by checking newspaper stats through Monday morning sports sections. Old enough to recall a day when Chris Berman’s jokes on highlight reels were considered comedic genius. Old enough to pre-date DFS betting, the invention of PPR formats or even fantasy football shows on television. I’ve been playing this game for a hot minute.
So, when I tell you, unequivocally and without question, that I’m the most excited about the tight end position that I’ve ever been, please take that with a grain of salt.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Approach Tight End
Turning the clock back just a few seasons ago, it felt as if the position could be summed up by stating, “Either you bite the bullet and draft Travis Kelce or George Kittle or you wait until deep in the draft before even considering a selection.” Those times have changed.
A youth movement over the past few years has brought in a bevy of talent from college, resulting in a rookie finishing as the TE1 in consecutive seasons (Sam LaPorta in 2023 and Brock Bowers last year). This trend, coupled with Big Four conferences largely running pro-style offenses and NFL defenses relying heavily on zone coverage schemes, has allowed savvy players at the position to become highly relevant in PPR formats. Acclimating faster, coming in more prepared, and finding the ability to “sit down” in coverages that strive to take away deep shots have put tight ends firmly in the limelight of fantasy football.
Will the trend continue?
Taking a glance through 2024 statistics, eight tight ends finished with over 90 targets last year, with another five players right behind them. Factoring in touchdowns, 14 players broke the 140-point mark last year — only 10 did so in 2017. The further back one scrolls, the grimmer things become.
Fourteen may sound like a ho-hum total at first, but I anticipate that figure to swell even further due to a powerful 2025 draft class, where six players were selected at the position before the fourth pick in the third round, including two (Colston Loveland of Chicago and Tyler Warren of Indianapolis) before the 15th overall pick.
Loveland’s ability to play in-line and run away from defenders while being a plus-blocker will keep him on the field constantly. At the same time, Warren’s “jack of all trades” skillset is reminiscent of a more athletic Taysom Hill. Most pundits will argue that Mason Taylor, Terrance Ferguson and Elijah Arroyo are just scratching the surface of their upside, and all three options should become immediately relevant in their offenses this season.
Cleveland’s Harold Fannin Jr. led the FBS in receptions (117) and receiving yards (1,555) last year, and has drawn comparisons to a young Vernon Davis. The list goes on.
All of this is to say, I’m highly optimistic that the tight end position will provide fantasy managers with plenty of depth and choices in 2025, including a bevy of “set it and forget it” weekly lineup locks and upside rookie plays.
How to Approach Tight End in Fantasy Football
How exactly would I treat the position in drafts this year? Here are a few things to consider.
Format Matters
As with any position, the smaller the league you participate in, the easier it becomes to wait on draft slots that aren’t wide receivers or running backs. If one examines our current expert consensus rankings (ECR), only one tight end (Brock Bowers) falls within the top 15 amidst the overall rankings. Reaching on Brock Bowers in the second or third round provides fantasy managers with a supposed leg-up at the position, akin to the Travis Kelce scenario of yesteryears.
But is it honestly worth it? I’m not so sure.
We expect Bowers to still have a phenomenal 2025, but negative regression should be factored into his current average draft position (ADP). Our PPR projections have him finishing around the 242-point total mark, a 20-point dip from last season. This notion is predicated on Las Vegas finally having a competent running game behind Ashton Jeanty, coupled with rookie wide receivers Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. providing alternative options for Geno Smith.
Suppose a manager were to be patient and pass on the first few selections at the position. In that case, I’d argue that LaPorta’s ADP of around the 55th overall pick provides a better value, since he is expected to finish with nearly 185 PPR points. The bang for your buck or potential return on investment is much greater by addressing tight end several rounds later, selecting a tier two or tier three option instead.
Flip things around in deeper formats (I’m referencing leagues with 14+ managers, instead of the standard 10-12). In that scenario, Bowers would be enough of a difference maker over the TE14 (we currently have the oft-injured Dallas Goedert there) every week where the return makes sense, and positional scarcity begins to have an impact. Tight end is deep for sure, but consistent production begins to thin at some point.
The same holds true in leagues utilizing TE-Premium scoring (looking at you, Scott Fish Bowl), where each catch is worth 1.5 points or the sadistic 2-TE format. Scoring systems that highlight, rather than attempt to bury the position, will result in managers securing top-end talent to focus elsewhere quickly, rather than it hanging over their head like a sword of Damocles. Tight end may be deeper than before, but it still pales in comparison to running backs and wide receivers.
Consider Upside Plays
A trick that I love to implement when drafting is carefully (and constantly) considering the notions of point floors and ceilings. Was last season as good as things could break for a particular player? Do you expect a rebound from someone who was injured in 2024 and whose ADP factors in a price discount? Have the offensive coordinators changed during the offseason? How many other players will they realistically compete with for targets on passing plays? Does your player participate in an offense like Buffalo or Philadelphia, where quarterback rushing attempts factor in heavily around the goal line?
Take Jonnu Smith as an example. Currently 29 years old, Smith experienced a breakout in 2024, finishing as the TE4 overall for the season and setting career highs in receptions (88), receiving yards (884) and touchdowns (eight).
What was the root cause of the breakout? Is that sort of production sustainable? Or is his current TE6 ranking too high?
Injuries to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle forced Miami to pass short frequently, a script that favored targets shifting to Smith. Defenders opted to bracket coverage on Tyreek Hill in an effort not to get burned deep, but appeared perfectly content with the Dolphins systematically pushing the ball upfield.
Without the threat of a dominant rushing attack to salt games away, Mike McDaniel’s offense became predictably methodical. Checkdowns to De’Von Achane, play-action passes to Smith and the occasional shot elsewhere.
Will that happen again?
Tagovailoa enters 2025 healthy, as does Waddle. Perhaps this season, they make it through relatively unscathed? Miami also signed wideout Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency and has gone on record endorsing a breakout from sophomore Malik Washington. If either option siphons targets away from Smith, it will be difficult for him to come close to 2024’s totals.
Consider implementing this process with mid-tier options to identify potential breakout candidates who can be drafted outside the top 100 selections.
Breakout Tight End Candidates
Some of my favorite candidates to break out in 2025 include Tucker Kraft from Green Bay, Jake Ferguson from Dallas, along with both top rookie options, Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.
Veterans Kraft and Ferguson will significantly benefit from the return of healthy quarterbacks under center and participate in offenses that prioritize throwing the ball. Ferguson has little competition for targets outside of CeeDee Lamb (call me skeptical that the George Pickens experiment works out).
Kraft has earned the trust of Jordan Love in clutch situations. In contrast, the remainder of the offense has yet to demonstrate consistently high levels of production (Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks) or stay healthy (Christian Watson).
Pivoting to the rookies, Loveland will have plenty of competition for targets with all of the moves Chicago made in the offseason, but I have a hunch that new head coach Ben Johnson will find a way to get the ball into his hands early and often. Defenses will have a difficult time shading coverage towards Loveland when DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III are all on the field.
Having watched Tyler Warren for years at Penn State, I can safely say he is special. Warren plays each snap with a gigantic chip on his shoulder and will always fight for positive yardage. Warren’s versatility out of the backfield (or even under center if necessary) is intriguing, coupled with his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss in open space. I could easily see Warren finishing as a low-end TE1 his rookie year.
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