Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 1)

Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert fantasy football rankings in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy lineup in Week 1? Let’s dive into some fantasy football start or sit advice for Week 1.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice

Week 1 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Justin Fields (QB – NYJ) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Highest Rank: 7
Lowest Rank: 25

Our 2024 sample size for Justin Fields was small – six games started with a total of five passing touchdowns, one interception and 1,106 passing yards, plus four rushing touchdowns. However, we did see noticeable improvements in Fields’ accuracy and decision-making.

Fields clearly thrived in a more stable environment. The real question we have in Week 1 for Fields is whether or not New York is enough of an upgrade from his days in Chicago to trust him as an immediate starter, especially with news that starting lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker is out for the foreseeable future. Fields always offers a solid floor with his rushing upside, but he’s still a risky start in a poor matchup against his former team, the Steelers, and is a polarizing player among expert rankers.

My Projected Finish: QB13

Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Highest Rank: 18
Lowest Rank: 48

Emeka Egbuka is one of the most commonly listed players in start/sit questions this week, and the difference in expert rankings highlights the issue. A rookie receiver in his first start, opposite one of the league’s most dominant veteran receivers in Mike Evans, definitely carries added risk. However, there are several arguments in Egbuka’s favor.

Atlanta allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers in 2024. While they’ve made clear efforts to improve their defense, it will likely take some time to develop to its full potential. Egbuka is the clear No. 2 WR in the offense now with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out and very little competition from other depth receivers. Egbuka offers a solid floor and a high ceiling in a matchup with a 47.5 point total. The ceiling might be a little capped in his first game, but he’s a fairly safe start at Flex despite the rankings differential.

My Projected Finish: WR31

J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) vs. Tennessee Titans

Highest Rank: 19
Lowest Rank: 50

Despite being listed as the No. 1 RB for Denver, there’s still significant skepticism around the Broncos’ backfield, and J.K. Dobbins is one of the most polarizing players in expert rankings for Week 1. The skepticism is warranted. RJ Harvey is expected to have a meaningful role in the offense and carries the higher ranking and higher upside, particularly in PPR due to his anticipated receiving role.

While we certainly have a vision for what this Broncos’ backfield could be, we’re stuck with the memory of the Broncos’ 2024 backfield, where no running back had over 140 carries, and Javonte Williams led the way with just 513 rushing yards. Another factor in comfort level leaning towards Harvery over Dobbins is that, despite the 2024 backfield being wildly ineffective, the Broncos had the fifth-highest target share to running backs in the league. Dobbins should see the majority of carries this week, but his ceiling is a major question mark if Harvey dominates the receiving work.

My Projected Finish: RB28

More Risky Starts

Week 1 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Trey McBride (TE – ARI) vs. New Orleans

Highest Rank: 1
Lowest Rank: 3

Trey McBride has the distinction of the lowest ranking deviation of any player at any position for Week 1. McBride having the slight edge over Brock Bowers and George Kittle does make sense. The Cardinals’ offense carries over the least amount of changes from 2024, and McBride’s role should be very similar.

The beauty of McBride’s role is the baked-in guarantee of volume. He had a minimum of three receptions in every game last season and dipped below double-digit fantasy points just twice.

My Projected Finish: TE2

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Highest Rank: 1
Lowest Rank: 4

We do have concerns around Saquon Barkley’s workload for the entire year, coming off a season with a career-high 345 carries during the regular season and 91 postseason carries. Season-long concerns are warranted, but in Week 1, Barkley has the lowest deviation in expert rankings of any running back.

The Eagles face a Dallas defense that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Packers and received picks and Kenny Clark in return, hoping that Clark will help the run defense improve. However, the Cowboys will likely see a negative impact from Parsons’ departure, and the Eagles should still be able to pick apart the Dallas defense, with ample touchdown opportunities for Barkley.

My Projected Finish: RB1

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Cleveland Browns

Highest Rank: 1
Lowest Rank: 3

Lack of major deviation in Week 1 rankings for elite players is fairly common. We typically advise to “start your studs,” and that’s far more emphasized in Week 1. However, the dominating confidence in Ja’Marr Chase by rankers is intriguing because of the matchup.

Cleveland allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year, but when healthy, the Browns are a more competent pass defense. The Browns aren’t actively tanking (as of Week 1) and should put up more of a fight against Cincinnati. Still, Chase is the biggest lock at wide receiver and offers the most stability and upside.

My Projected Finish: WR1