Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
At the beginning of the offseason, Emeka Egbuka looked like this year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft found himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but as we have progressed through the offseason and camp, the pathway has become clearer for Egbuka to step up in a big way in year one. Godwin’s health issues are much more complicated than originally anticipated, and he might not be at 100% til the mid-point of the 2025 season. Jalen McMillan sustained a neck injury in the preseason that has also called his availability for a large chunk of this season into question (he could be out until their bye in Week 9). Egbuka looks like he could be the clear WR2 for the Bucs for most of the season, if not all of it. Egbuka’s talent has never been in question. In two of Egbuka’s final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Atlanta’s two-high approach should yield a ton of targets for Egbuka in Week 1 against the Falcons’ rookie nickel corner Billy Bowman Jr., who, in his final collegiate season, allowed a 68.7% catch rate and 125 passer rating (29th-highest among 255 qualifying safeties) in slot coverage.
Ricky Pearsall has had a wonderful offseason and is primed to spread his wings in his second season. Pearsall’s rookie season was derailed early by camp injuries and then off-the-field circumstances that were out of his control. All of these factors delayed Pearsall flashing his immense talent, but eventually, the cream rose to the top. In the final two weeks of the regular season, Pearsall finished as the WR7 and WR14 in weekly scoring while seeing a 21.7% target share and 30.4% first-read share and producing 2.84 yards per route run. Pearsall will face a Seattle secondary that last year allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers (Pearsall 85.7% perimeter in the preseason). Pearsall will line up against Riq Woolen (2024: 55.2% catch rate and 83.7 passer rating allowed) and Josh Jobe (2024: 60% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating allowed) for most of the game.
Last year, after Bo Nix took off, Courtland Sutton was the WR20 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 5-18, Sutton had a 22.7% target share while ranking 17th in yards per route run, 22nd in receiving yards per game, 19th in first-read share, and ninth-best in first downs per route run. Overall, he was the WR24 in fantasy points per game, but he was the WR9 in expected fantasy points per game. If L’Jarius Sneed is fully healthy, he could shadow Sutton in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 1-4, Sneed followed D.J. Moore, Garrett Wilson, Romeo Doubs, and Tyreek Hill on 50-66.7% of their routes, holding all of them to 35 or fewer receiving yards in his coverage. If Sneed follows him in Week 1 (which is what I’m expecting), Sutton could have a quiet game.
Calvin Ridley had to suffer through horrible quarterback play last year en route to a WR36 finish in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Ridley finished 78th in catchable target rate. He finished 31st in target share and receiving yards per game, 32nd in yards per route run, and 33rd in separation and route win rate. He was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game. Ridley will have to get by with volume in Week 1 because his outlook is rough with a Patrick Surtain II shadow incoming. Surtain ll shadowed seven times last year, following D.K. Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, and Garrett Wilson on 60-4-96% of their routes. No wide receiver eclipsed 54 receiving yards in his coverage, and six of them didn’t surpass 40 receiving yards. Ridley is headed to the shadow realm for Week 1.
Jerry Jeudy FINALLY had the breakout season that we have all been waiting for. Last year, he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game while securing 90 of his 144 targets with 1,229 receiving yards. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 14th in receiving yards per game, 33rd in target share, and 45th in yards per route run. The rollercoaster he endured with quarterback play did impact those numbers. In Weeks 8-18, with anyone outside of Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball, he ranked 15th in target share, 20th in yards per route run and first downs per route run, and second in receiving yards per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase (among 95 qualifying wide receivers). I’m not bullish about Jeudy’s outlook in Week 1, though. Last year, Cincy was surprisingly good against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target. Jeudy didn’t surpass 20 receiving yards in either game against Cincy last year.
Jameson Williams finally broke out last year as the WR23 in fantasy points per game. He did so while only commanding a 17.6% target share, having a 20% target per route run rate, and 11 red zone targets. Those are solid but not overwhelming numbers. Williams did rank 15th in separation, 23rd in yards per route run, and 35th in first downs per route run, so there’s also some hope that he can take another step in 2025. The Green Bay corner room could yield a big day to Williams, but the coverage he will see most of the day doesn’t really play to his favor if his role stays the same as last season. Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Green Bay utilized two high at the tenth-highest rate (52.6%). Last year, against two high, Williams had a strong 2.20 yards per route run, but he wasn’t the team’s go-to option against two high, which was Amon-Ra St. Brown (30% target per route run rate). Williams had only a 20% target per route run rate and 0.075 first downs per route run. He could eat into St. Brown’s workload against two high this year if he can continue with that strong per-route efficiency, so it’s not inconceivable that he takes another step in this department in 2025. Williams should have no issues shredding Keisean Nixon (2024: 66.3% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating allowed) and Nate Hobbs (2024: 67.4% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating allowed) this week.
D.J. Moore had a rough 2024 season despite still drawing a high-end target share in the Chicago passing attack and finishing 98 receptions as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Moore still drew a ton of volume, ranking 13th in target share (24.4%) and tenth in first-read share (31.8%), but his per-route numbers were rough. Yes, Caleb Williams was partially to blame as Moore ranked 55th in catchable target rate, which could partially explain his 1.53 yards per route run (60th), 56.8 receiving yards per game (35th), and 0.068 first downs per route run (67th). It doesn’t, however, wipe away his 76th ranking in separation and 59th standing in route win rate. Last year, Minnesota led the NFL in two high rate (63.6%). Last season, among 101 qualifying receivers, Moore ranked 60th and 68th in separation and route win rates against two high. It’s tough to feel great about his outlook in Week 1 with the coverage matchup and lining up against Isaiah Rodgers (2024: 50% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating allowed) and Byron Murphy (2024: 70% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating allowed) all game.
While I know Wilson’s 2024 season didn’t turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked tenth in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers‘ rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics. Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate. This season, he won’t have Davante Adams to deal with as he steps forward as the unquestioned WR1 for the team. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked first in single high rate (66.4%). I don’t see their usage of single high declining this year. Last season, against single high, Wilson had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.03 yards per route run, and 0.115 first downs per route run, which were all solid to fantastic marks. Wilson’s biggest hurdle, outside of Justin Fields‘ quarterback play, in Week 1 will be dealing with Joey Porter Jr., Darius Slay, and Jalen Ramsey. Wilson will need all the volume he can get to outkick the horrible matchup.
The Panthers finally gave Bryce Young a true WR1 this season with their selection of Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan could be a wonderful volume hog this year in what looks to be an ascending passing offense, especially with Jalen Coker sidelined to begin the season. During his final two collegiate seasons, McMillan ranked 17th and 21st in yards per route run. In his most substantial preseason action (Week 1), McMillan had a 26.3% target per route run rate and 2.26 yards per route run. It was a small 19-route sample, but quite encouraging nonetheless. I’m not worried about his Week 1 matchup. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. The Jaguars didn’t do anything to improve their perimeter coverage in the offseason, with Jarrian Jones assuming the starting job opposite Tyson Campbell. McMillan will tangle with Jones (2024: 72.6% catch rate, 11th-highest) and Campbell (2024: 67.3% catch rate and 109.7 passer rating allowed) for most of the game (83.3% perimeter in the preseason).
I think we’ll see Travis Hunter in Week 1 play as a full-time or near full-time player on offense at wide receiver, but we have no concrete intel providing us with the insight to exactly how it plays out. Hunter’s snap share will be a mystery until we all see him unveiled in Week 1 and the rest of the season. When he’s on the field with the offense, he should be Brian Thomas Jr.‘s running mate. Hunter ran 63% of his routes in the preseason from the slot, which is what I was expecting before seeing it in his limited preseason action (only seven routes). It was encouraging as he was extremely efficient from the slot in his final collegiate season. Last year, among all FBS wide receivers with at least eight slot targets, Hunter ranked fourth in slot yards per route run. Overall, in his final collegiate season, he ranked 38th in yards per route run and sixth in receiving grade. Hunter will match up with Chau Smith-Wade, who allowed the second-lowest passer rating and the 14th-fewest yards per snap (among 42 qualifying slot corners) last year. In Weeks 7-16, Smith-Wade made six starts. During that stretch, Carolina held slot receivers to the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game. Hunter is a risky start in Week 1.
Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking, underneath threat continuing. Right now, Samuel is fully healthy, but this is something to just store in the deeper recesses of your mind. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. This is a decent on-paper matchup schematically and for Samuel’s projected role in the offense. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes. Samuel likely does the heavy lifting for Washington in the screen game. Last year, New York allowed the 12th-most yards after the catch per reception and the seventh-most yards per route run to wide receiver screens. Last year, the Giants also utilized single high at the third-highest rate (64.6%). Samuel was solid against single high with a 21% target per route run rate and 1.80 yards per route run. Samuel should pay off as a decent flex in PPR leagues.
Jaylen Waddle‘s 2024 season was a huge disappointment, but he’s primed for a bounce-back season. The talent is still there. Last year, in the 14 games he played, at least 70% of the snaps, his numbers don’t look amazing, but they were solid as he had a 16.3% target share, 1.79 yards per route run, 53.1 receiving yards per game, and 0.092 first downs per route run. Let’s examine the numbers he accrued with Tua Tagovailoa under center and Waddle as a full-time player. We get a clearer picture of Waddle’s talent through the context-distorting muck. In that sample of games, Waddle had 2.14 yards per route run, 64.6 receiving yards per game, and 0.114 first downs per route run. With Lou Anarumo taking over the Colts’ defensive playcalling this year, I expect that we’ll still see a ton of single high usage. Last year, Indy was 11th in single high rate (56.2%). In two of Anarumo’s final three seasons with Cincy, he utilized single high between 53.9-59.8% of snaps. Last year, with Tagovailoa under center and Waddle as a full-time player, he was solid with 2.02 yards per route run and 0.126 first downs per route run, but he had only a 16% target per route run and 15.3% first-read share. Hopefully, that comes up because Waddle could do damage in Week 1 against the Colts’ secondary if he gets the target volume, lining up against Charvarius Ward (2024: 60.8% catch rate and 119.1 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (2023: 62% catch rate and 86.7 passer rating) all day.
Last year, Chris Olave was limited to only six games played with a 70% or higher snap share. He suffered the fourth and fifth documented concussions of his life last year, which effectively cut his season short. In that small sample of games we got from Olave last year, he was still quite good. In those games, he drew a 22.5% target share, averaged 63.7 receiving yards per game, had 2.22 yards per route run, a 29.4% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run. Among 85 qualifying receivers with at least 50 targets, if Olave had made the cut-off, he would have ranked 31st, 29th, 28th, 24th, and 12th best in those categories. In those games, Olave averaged 12.5 PPR points per game, which would have equaled WR35 production last year. Not bad, considering in that sample, he scored only one touchdown. Among 128 qualifying receivers, he also ranked 17th in separation and 23rd in route win rate. With all that said, Olave will have to overcome what looks to be mediocre quarterback play in 2025 if he’s going to produce this season. Olave looks like a volume play only in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Arizona allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They also added Will Johnson to their starting lineup, so they could be even better in 2025.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
