The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 13 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) @ PIT | DraftKings: $7,500/FanDuel: $9,400
This is the perfect time to deploy Josh Allen for a bounce-back week after a highly disappointing outing in Week 12, where Allen had zero touchdowns and two interceptions. That was a difficult matchup against the tough Houston defense, and this week against Pittsburgh offers a far friendlier matchup. The Steelers hold running backs in check and have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. In 11 games this season, the Steelers have allowed multiple touchdowns to eight quarterbacks – the perfect opportunity for a ceiling game for Allen.
Tyrod Taylor (QB – NYJ) vs. ATL | DraftKings: $4,300/FanDuel: $6,700
Taylor’s fantasy production in Week 12 was underwhelming, but it was a solid outing, and this week against Atlanta presents a far better matchup. The Falcons have been vulnerable to the pass this year and tend to be a very boom or bust matchup for quarterbacks – you’re scoring all the fantasy points or none at all. Taylor had five carries last week, but the yardage was low. If he can increase volume on the ground, he offers excellent value at his pricing this week.
Jacoby Brissett (QB – ARI) @ TB | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $7,600
Yes, we’re running it back again with Brissett. He’s a gift that keeps on giving from a fantasy perspective and has finished as a top 12 quarterback in every game he started this season. Despite the fact that he keeps pumping out QB1 performances, he’s still reasonably priced. He’s seen another jump in salary this week, and he’s the sixth-highest-priced quarterback on the slate on DraftKings. Despite the price increase, he still offers solid value in an excellent matchup against the Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The only downside here is that his garbage time production might not come into play if Baker Mayfield is out.
Additional Considerations
- Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) vs. MIN| DraftKings: $5,600/FanDuel: $7,400
- Injury contingent: Teddy Bridgewater (QB – TB) @ ARI | DraftKings: $4,400/FanDuel: $6,300
Running Backs
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) vs. ATL | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,400
Aside from one shellacking by Jonathan Taylor, the Falcons’ defense has been fairly stout against the run. However, while they’re limiting running backs in terms of yardage and touchdowns, they’ve been vulnerable to running backs’ receiving work. Hall is an excellent receiving back, but he struggled with a lack of checkdowns from Justin Fields. In Week 12 with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Hall had his best performance of the season as a pass catcher with four receptions for 75 yards. If Hall can produce through the air this week, he offers significant value at his pricing.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) @ CAR | DraftKings: $6,600/FanDuel: $8,500
Carolina’s defense rebounded well against the pass in Week 12, but the Panthers still struggled to stop the run and have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Williams tends to be a bit risky in DFS because of Matt Stafford‘s efficiency in the red zone, occasionally limiting goal line opportunities. Last week, in what should’ve been a good matchup against Tampa Bay, Williams had 12 carries for 46 yards with no touchdowns. However, before that, he had been very consistent in capitalizing on goal line opportunities and should bounce back in an excellent matchup this week.
Devin Neal (RB – NO) @ MIA | DraftKings: $5,000/FanDuel: $5,900*
If Alvin Kamara is out (and it appears he’s trending that direction), Neal likely becomes the sole lead back. While the Saints’ run game has struggled this season, Neal would have decent volume, but his value in receiving work is the key. There was a noticeable uptick in pass volume for Neal last week. Miami’s run defense has improved in recent weeks, but Neal’s pricing is tough to beat.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PIT) vs. BUF| DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $6,200*
If you’re looking to get really different and a bit creative, Gainwell has upside in GPP. Pittsburgh appears to be shifting more toward a pure committee, and while Warren is clearly still the lead back, his receiving work has been diminished. Gainwell has seen a significant increase in targets and has thrived, with a total of 13 receptions on 14 targets for over 100 yards in the past two games and two RB1 finishes. It might feel a bit too risky to deploy Gainwell because his price isn’t significantly discounted. However, the risk is lessened by a matchup with a Buffalo defense that is allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. Do note that due to scoring, Gainwell has more appeal on DraftKings.
Additional Considerations
- Injury contingent: Kimani Vidal (RB – LAC) vs. LV| DraftKings: $5,700/FanDuel: $6,700
- Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC) @ TEN | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,300*
- De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. NO | DraftKings: $8,300/FanDuel: $8,700*
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (WR – NO) @ MIA | DraftKings: $6,400/FanDuel: $7,200*
On paper, Miami is a terrible matchup for Olave. They allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but you do have to contextualize it. Despite being stingy toward receivers, they’ve allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. When you run through the list of quarterbacks they played, it starts to make logical sense. They faced a lot of quarterbacks who struggled to hit their wide receivers or favored tight ends. For example, Lamar Jackson had four passing touchdowns against the Dolphins and three of those touchdowns went to tight ends. They also played Dillon Gabriel who struggles to hit wide receivers and others like Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins. The numbers are naturally tilted but the primary pass catcher can thrive against Miami. Tyler Shough is locked in on Olave. He’s likely in line for double-digit targets and a big reception day, making him the better play on DraftKings.
John Metchie III (WR – NYJ) vs. ATL | DraftKings: $3,800/FanDuel: $5,700
In the past two games, Metchie has also clearly outperformed Adonai Mitchell and is the Jets’ new WR1. In Week 11 against New England, Metchie had three receptions on three targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. In Week 12 against Baltimore, he had six receptions on seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. A Taylor/Metchie stack offers extreme value in a matchup with Atlanta that has boom potential.
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $6,100/FanDuel: $6,800*
Week 13 should be an objectively awful day for Bryce Young, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his pass catchers are a no-go. The Rams’ defense can be a complete nightmare for quarterbacks; however, opposing quarterbacks tend to push volume. The Rams are the worst combination of a truly elite offense and an excellent run defense. Translation: they jump out to a lead and you can’t run on them, so it forces quarterbacks to throw for volume because there is no other option. That volume might include multiple interceptions, but for the receivers, it’s not a major issue as long as you’re the clear WR1 for your team.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) @ IND | DraftKings: $6,700/FanDuel: $8,100
CJ Stroud will likely make his return this week. After missing three games in a row, he’ll likely lean on his most trusted receiver, Nico Collins. We’ve seen some shifting snaps and targets in the Texans’ receiving corps recently with the emergence of Jayden Higgins, but Collins remains a solid play with a high ceiling. Collins is coming off a rough game in Week 12 against Buffalo with just three receptions on three targets for 55 yards. However, Mills only threw for 153 yards. Collins has had multiple games above 20 fantasy points this season, but he’s yet to hit his true ceiling, and this week’s matchup against Indianapolis provides an excellent opportunity. The Colts have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and despite the fact that Houston’s defense is extremely strong, the Colts have enough weapons on offense to move the ball well enough to ensure there’s some level of volume in this matchup.
Additional Considerations
- Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) vs. NO | DraftKings: $6,800/FanDuel: $7,000*
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) vs. MIN | DraftKings: $9,500/FanDuel: $10,000*
- Chimere Dike (WR – TEN) vs. JAC | DraftKings: $4,400/FanDuel: $5,600
- Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) @ PIT | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $6,300*
- Injury contingent plays
- Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) @ TB | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $7,100
- Greg Dortch (WR – ARI) @ TB | DraftKings: $4,600/FanDuel: $5,200*
Tight Ends
Colby Parkinson (TE – LAR) @ CAR | DraftKings: $2,800/FanDuel: $4,800
Parkinson is on an excellent mini-run with a touchdown in each of the past three games, and the reason for his emergence is very clear. Tyler Higbee went down with an injury, and Parkinson has separated himself from Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen. When Matt Stafford locks in and finds a trusted red zone target, it tends to stick – just ask Davante Adams. Parkinson has 10 red zone targets in just nine games this season, making him the 10th-highest targeted tight end in the red zone. He’s well priced at value and offers solid upside.
Additional Considerations
- Oronde Gadsden (TE – LAC) vs. LV| DraftKings: $4,300/FanDuel: $5,900
- Trey McBride (TE – ARI) @ TB | DraftKings: $7,800/FanDuel: $8,300*
D/ST
Titans D/ST vs. Tennessee Titans | DraftKings: $2,200/FanDuel: $3,000
The Titans’ D/ST has several strong justifications for play in Week 13. Chimere Dike has thrived in the return game and has two returns for touchdowns in the past five games. They can also generate touchdowns defensively, creating the potential for spike weeks and this week offers the perfect opportunity for a spike week against Trevor Lawrence. Coming off a three-interception game, Lawrence has 11 on the season. He also tends to be a bit sloppy with fumbles. Their ability to hit an excellent ceiling at a low price makes them a very interesting play in GPP.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn