Week 11 has some outstanding contests. Gamers don’t need a vivid imagination to see the first suggested game stack shooting out since the two squads did so only a few weeks ago. The second suggested game stack features two desperate teams, led by quarterbacks who can hang points with the best in the business when they’re playing well. The core studs and values/punts sections feature players from both game stacks. However, those sections also have a few other selections.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 11
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Steelers vs. Bengals
Spread/Total: PIT -5.5/49.5 Points
The Bengals beat the Steelers 33-31 in a Thursday Night Football shootout in Week 7. The game’s total is high for the rematch in Pittsburgh this week. There are DFS-friendly matchups abound for both teams. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals are tied for the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (22.6) allowed to quarterbacks, and they’ve ceded the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (22.1) to the position. Conversely, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game (22.3) and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (20.6) to signal callers.
Predictably, pass catchers have thrived against both teams. The Steelers have coughed up the most DraftKings points per game (43.2) and the second-most FanDuel points per game (32.7) to wide receivers this season. The Bengals have allowed the most DraftKings points per game (23.5) and FanDuel points per game (19.4) to tight ends. Finally, the Bengals have also allowed the most DraftKings points per game (35.1) and FanDuel points per game (30.9) to running backs.
The Steelers are tied for the highest implied total on this week’s main slate. Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback attached to that juicy total, and he carved up the Bengals in their first meeting. The 41-year-old four-time NFL MVP tallied 249 passing yards, four touchdown passes and two interceptions against the Bengals. DJ Turner will likely be a thorn in DK Metcalf‘s side.
As a result, Rodgers’ most enticing passing game options are at running back, tight end and behind Metcalf on the receiver depth chart. The Steelers have a maddening three-player rotation at tight end, with Connor Heyward even mixing in infrequently as a fourth tight end. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Jonnu Smith‘s 58.3% route participation rate paces Pittsburgh’s tight ends, followed by Pat Freiermuth‘s 47.7% and Darnell Washington‘s 29.7%. Nevertheless, Freiermuth leads the group in air yards share (10.7%), receiving yards (260 at 28.9 per game), yards per route run (1.82 Y/RR) and touchdown receptions (three). Any of the trio could have varying degrees of DFS utility in a Charmin-soft matchup, but Freiermuth’s superior receiving profile to Smith and Washington makes him my favorite DFS option of the group. Freiermuth has the highest ceiling of the bunch.
Roman Wilson‘s 41.6% route participation rate since Week 6 is the third-highest mark among Pittsburgh’s wide receivers. However, Wilson’s 1.92 Y/RR are the best among the group, and he caught a touchdown last week after Calvin Austin‘s drop on a pass that hit him in the chest led directly to an interception by the Chargers. Austin hasn’t made the most of serving as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 wideout, and Wilson’s ability to punch in the team’s only touchdown last week after Austin was directly responsible for a turnover could lead to a shift in playing time and usage that gamers should be willing to get ahead of in DFS tournaments at Wilson’s punt-priced salary.
Since Joe Flacco made his debut with the Bengals in Week 6, he’s first in passing yards per game (313.5) and tied for third in passing touchdowns (11), despite the Bengals having a bye in Week 10. The 40-year-old signal caller lit up the Steelers for 342 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in just his second game with the Bengals. Flacco is a rock-solid selection at a fair salary on FanDuel and grossly underpriced at DraftKings. Flacco is tied for the QB3 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings in the lineup optimizer.
Tee Higgins barbecued the Steelers for six receptions, 96 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in the first meeting. He’s caught at least one touchdown in three straight games and cleared 60 receiving yards in three of Flacco’s four starts. Higgins has also had at least eight targets in three of Flacco’s starts.
The big-bodied wideout should give the Steelers trouble when they play man coverage. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Pittsburgh has played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (37.2%) this year, and Higgins has recorded 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR) and 2.31 Y/RR on 97 routes against man coverage this season.
Chase Brown‘s DFS utility is contingent on Samaje Perine‘s ankle injury sidelining the veteran running back this week. Perine didn’t practice on Wednesday, and high-ankle sprains often keep players out for multiple weeks. Brown’s 96% snap share in Week 9 was tied for the highest among running backs. Brown handled 11 of Cincinnati’s backfield’s 13 rush attempts and had an 82% route participation rate in Week 9. His voluminous role would elevate his floor and ceiling, even if he doesn’t have a favorable matchup. Additionally, Brown had 108 rushing yards on just 11 carries and two receptions for negative eight yards against the Steelers in Week 7.
Game: Bills vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: BUF -5.5/47.5 Points
The Bills want to run the rock. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills are tied for the seventh-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%) this year. James Cook has ridden Joe Brady’s play-calling tendencies to the second-most rushing yards per game (102.2). Vita Vea is a terror in the middle of Tampa Bay’s defensive line. Nevertheless, TreVeyon Henderson killed them on perimeter runs last week, and the Bills avoided Derrick Brown in the middle of Carolina’s defensive line in Week 8, allowing Cook to steamroll the Panthers for 216 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. Cook is strictly a GPP option as part of a skinny stack or a full-game stack.
The Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense, though. They’re tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) faced this year. The Bills could call on Josh Allen early and often this week after Brady acknowledged on Monday that he would have thrown the ball more early against the Dolphins if he could do it over again. Allen isn’t a must-use player on this week’s DFS slate, but his passing prowess and rushing ability give him a massive ceiling, and the Bills are tied for the highest implied total on the slate.
Khalil Shakir popped up on Buffalo’s injury report with a rib injury. Still, he was able to log a limited practice, and he’s Allen’s top healthy passing-game weapon. Moreover, the Bucs play zone coverage at the 15th-highest rate (72.8%), Cover 3 at the 12th-highest rate (32.4%) and Cover 4 at the sixth-highest rate (19.9%) this year. Meanwhile, Shakir has 0.27 TPRR and 2.21 Y/RR on 157 routes against zone, 0.31 TPRR and 2.93 Y/RR on 81 routes against Cover 3 and 0.38 TPRR and 2.14 Y/RR on 29 routes against Cover 4 this season.
Shakir is also a blitz-beating weapon for Allen, with 0.22 TPRR and 2.48 Y/RR on 73 routes against the blitz. The YAC-monster wideout’s rapport with Allen against the blitz is critical in this matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bucs have blitzed at the fifth-highest rate (30%) this season.
None of Tampa Bay’s running backs are featured on the table. The Bills have a leaky run defense. Yet, Bucky Irving returned to practice on Wednesday. The second-year pro was a limited participant. Unless he can advance to full practice participation by week’s end, Irving will be only a GPP dart throw for gamers entering many (50-plus) lineups. Sean Tucker will be an intriguing contrarian pick if Irving is inactive. Readers are encouraged to read the NFL Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet on Friday and check back over the weekend for updates to see if any of Tampa Bay’s running backs are suggested DFS picks.
For now, Baker Mayfield and his pass-catching weapons are the most intriguing DFS options for the underdog Buccaneers. According to Pro Football Reference, Mayfield is 12th among qualified passers in passing yards per game (243.6), 12th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.91 ANY/A) and tied for 11th in passing touchdowns (11) this season. Mayfield is a volatile DFS option. Still, he’s tossed multiple touchdowns and surpassed 250 passing yards in four of his previous six games.
Rookie Emeka Egbuka is Tampa Bay’s No. 1 wideout. The Buccaneers have dealt with injuries ripping through their wideouts, and Egbuka has had the following numbers in five games without Mike Evans this year.
- 83.8% route participation rate
- 12.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 45.1% air yards share
- 26.4% target share
- 0.29 targets per route run
- 33.9% first-read rate
- 22 receptions (4.5 per game)
- 438 receiving yards (87.6 per game)
- 2.92 Y/RR
- Three receiving touchdowns
- Four end-zone targets
- 17.8 DraftKings points per game
- 15.6 FanDuel points per game
- 15.8 expected fantasy points per game
The Bills have struggled against No. 1 wide receivers this year. According to StatHead, Buffalo has yielded stellar showings to Drake London (10 receptions for 158 receiving yards and one touchdown), Stefon Diggs (10 for 146), Zay Flowers (seven for 143 and one), Tetairoa McMillan (seven for 99), Jaylen Waddle (five for 84 and one), Rashee Rice (four for 80), Garrett Wilson (four for 50) and Tyreek Hill (five for 49 and one).
Tez Johnson and Cade Otton are both enticing low-salaried pieces of this contest. The Bills have faced the highest slot target rate (52.4%) since Week 6. In Tampa Bay’s last four games, Otton has had a team-high slot rate (53.7%) among healthy players, and Johnson has had a rock-solid 43% slot rate. In those contests, Johnson had 3.5 receptions per game, 47 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns, and Otton had 6.25 receptions per game and 59.5 receiving yards per game.
Core Studs
- Ja’Marr Chase is projected as the WR1 with the WR1 value score at both DFS outlets this week. Among wideouts since Week 6, Chase is 13th in air yards share (40.8%), second in target share (36.4%), second in first-read rate (45.7%), first in receptions (44 at 11 per game) and second in receiving yards (457 at 114.3 per game). Chase also caught two touchdowns in those four contests.
- Christian McCaffrey has an absurdly high ceiling and floor. Last week’s 96 scoreless yards were CMC’s second-lowest total this year, as he’s logged at least 107 scrimmage yards in eight of 10 games. However, CMC made up for the lack of splashing paydirt by reeling in eight receptions on 10 targets. CMC has also scored at least a touchdown in six games this year, doing so twice in two games. He trounced the Seahawks for 142 scrimmage yards and nine receptions in Week 1. Unsurprisingly, CMC is projected as the RB1 this week. Furthermore, he has the RB1 value score at both DFS sites.
- Jaylen Warren could be included in the next section, as he’s underpriced. However, since Chase and CMC have large salaries, Warren’s relatively low salary among the studs was a conscious decision made with roster construction in mind. Pittsburgh’s do-it-all running back had a season-high 127 rushing yards, four receptions and 31 receiving yards for a season-high 158 scrimmage yards against the Bengals earlier this year. He’s had at least 13 opportunities (rushes and targets) in all eight games he’s played this year, logging at least 15 touches in four straight. Warren has also caught multiple passes in every game and eclipsed 60 scrimmage yards or scored a touchdown in every game as well. Warren is the RB6 with the RB2 value score at both DFS providers on Sunday’s main slate.
Value Plays/Punts
- Woody Marks had a season-high 80% snap share in Week 10. He amassed 63 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three targets, two receptions and 18 receiving yards against the Jaguars in a frantic comeback victory against the Jaguars last week. The Texans are 6.5-point favorites against the Titans, which should lead to a positive game script for the rookie running back. Tennessee’s stud defensive tackle, Jeffery Simmons, played only 12 defensive snaps before he was injured in Week 7. The Titans were gashed for 147.5 rushing yards per game, 6.15 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns in two subsequent games. Marks would be slightly less appealing if Simmons were active. Nevertheless, the rookie running back is a nifty value pick at both DFS sites.
- Joshua Palmer was a limited practice participant in all three practices last week. He was a game-time decision but, ultimately, ruled out. Palmer started this week with full participation in practice, essentially assuring he’ll return against the Bucs. Dalton Kincaid suffered a hamstring injury last week, and the Bills will need someone to step up in his absence. Without Kincaid in Week 6, Palmer had two targets, 53 air yards, two receptions and 60 receiving yards on only five routes against the Falcons before suffering a high-ankle sprain. The tiny sample for Palmer could be noise, or it could be a sign of what to expect for Palmer without Kincaid. In addition, Tampa Bay is eighth in two-high coverage rate (54.8%), and Palmer has rock-solid marks of 0.20 TPRR and 1.96 Y/RR on 46 routes against two-high coverage this season. Palmer will likely fly under the radar, making him more appealing in GPPs. Finally, Palmer has a 75.7% wide rate this year, and Tampa Bay has faced the 10th-highest target rate (44.4%) for players aligned wide since Week 6.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is out after appendicitis surgery, and Zay Jones was placed on the injured reserve (IR) with an Achilles injury. Trey McBride is Arizona’s target hog, but Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are their top wide receivers. The diminutive Dortch has a 69.2% slot rate this season, and the 49ers have faced the fourth-highest target rate (38.9%) to the slot since Week 6. As a result, Dortch can pile up some fantasy points on receptions from the slot, making him a worthwhile punt.
Week 10 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Emeka Egbuka: 63.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
According to StatHead, the Bills have allowed seven wide receivers to exceed 63.5 receiving yards in nine games this season. The Jets in Week 2, the Dolphins in Week 3 and the Saints in Week 4 were the only teams without at least one receiver over 63.5 receiving yards against the Bills this season. We project Egbuka to have 76.4 receiving yards against Buffalo.
Woody Marks: 60.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
The Texans have had a 53% rush rate on 210 plays when leading by at least three points, excluding the last two minutes of the first half. Marks has cleared 60.5 rushing yards in two of his last three games, and the rookie provided the Texans with no reason to reconsider the season-high snap share and 14 rush attempts they gave him last week.
Tyjae Spears: 16.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Tyjae Spears made his season debut in Week 5. He didn’t have a target in that contest. In four games since his season debut, Spears has had a 42.8% route participation rate, 10.7% target share, 0.22 targets per route run, 3.5 targets per game, 3.25 receptions per game, 24 receiving yards per game and 1.48 Y/RR. Spears has recorded at least 18 receiving yards in four straight games. We project him to have 17 receiving yards against the Texans this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
