The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3, O/U 48.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.J. McCarthy (QB)

J.J. McCarthy has had an up-and-down start to his career. Yes, in his three “healthy” starts, he has been the QB11, QB14, and QB13 in weekly scoring, but his passing accuracy needs to improve. Overall, among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt and 28th in CPOE, but he is also first in hero throw rate. The high-end moments are there, but he has to improve the play-to-play consistency. The Bears offer a wonderful matchup this week for McCarthy to possibly play up to his potential and post another QB1 outing. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game and yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the second-highest CPOE.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Despite being the QB8 in fantasy points per game, Williams has experienced similar volatility to J.J. McCarthy with five top-ten fantasy finishes this season, while also having four games as the QB20 or lower. Among 42 qualifying passers, Williams ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 29th in CPOE, 34th in catchable target rate, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. During his last matchup with Minnesota, Williams was the QB9 in fantasy, but he needed 58 rushing yards and a rushing score to pull that off. He had only 210 passing yards with a 60% completion rate and 6.0 yards per attempt. Over the last two games, with Minnesota’s pass defense getting healthier, they have still ranked 16th in yards per attempt and passer rating and given up the 11th-highest CPOE and passing touchdowns (tied). There’s a lot of risk and reward with both quarterbacks in this game. Each could be a QB1 this week or a disappointing QB2.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Last week, Swift retook his lead back role with a 60.9% snap share, a 51.2% route share, and a 22.2% target share. He led the way with two red zone rushing attempts, 18 touches, and 98 total yards. Swift is the RB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in opportunity share and 13th in red zone touches. Among 64 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 12th in explosive run rate and 23rd in missed tackle rate. Swift should have another strong week. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and ranked 16th in stuff rate.

Rome Odunze (WR)

After last week’s strong game, Odunze is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking first among wide receivers in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets. Odunze has a 22.4% target share with 62.1 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 26.6.% first-read share. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that leads the NFL in two high rate (69.4%). Against two high, Odunze is third (tied) on the team with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.83 yards per route run. Against two high, he does lead the team with a 25.7% first-read share. Odunze should have another nice game this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers.

DJ Moore (WR)

D.J. Moore is the WR42 in fantasy points per game with three top-36 weekly finishes this season (WR29, WR31, WR4). Moore could post a wonderful stat line this week. He has had a 15.4% target share with 44.8 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and a 16.3% first-read share. Moore has seen four red zone targets and seven deep targets. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that leads the NFL in two high rate (69.4%). Against two high, Moore’s target share has jumped to 19% with 1.95 yards per route run with an 18.9% first-read share. Moore should excel this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Aaron Jones Sr. (RB)

Last week, Aaron Jones took over the Minnesota backfield with a 70.8% snap rate. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 11.5 touches and 83.5 total yards while posting RB18 and RB12 weekly finishes. Since Week 9, Jones has had an 11.1% explosive run rate, a 6% missed tackle rate, and only 1.44 yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if the explosive play fest continues, but he has a solid matchup this week to offer RB2/flex value. Since Week 6, Chicago has ranked 16th in rushing yards per game while giving up the 11th-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Kyle Monangai (RB)

Last week, Kyle Monangai returned to being the 1B in the backfield with a 39.1% snap rate, a 34.1% route share, and a 2.8% target share. He did have one red zone rushing attempt, which he converted into a touchdown, finishing with seven touches and 28 total yards. Monangai is a touchdown-dependent flex play this week. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and ranked 16th in stuff rate.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Since Week 9, with J.J. McCarthy under center, Addison has had a 19.4% target share, a 26.1% air-yard share, 41.5 receiving yards per game, 1.20 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In those two games, Addison has had one red zone target and three deep targets. This week, he faces a Chicago pass defense that, since Week 6, has utilized single high at the ninth-highest rate (55.3%). Overall, against single high, Addison has seen his target per route run rate dip to 15% with 1.44 yards per route run. This coverage matchup isn’t ideal for Addison, but Chicago’s secondary has been hapless and could help him boost his stat line this week. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Addison is a decent flex.

Colston Loveland (TE)

Last week, with Cole Kmet back in the lineup, Loveland led the way with a 51.2% route share, but he only had an 11.1% target share with 55 receiving yards and an 8.7% first-read share. With that type of usage, he’s only a low-end steaming option this week. Loveland is tied for third on the team in red zone targets (four) while also seeing two deep targets. Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

With J.J. McCarthy under center, T.J. Hockenson hasn’t finished higher than TE19 in weekly scoring. In those four games, he hasn’t managed more than 15 receiving yards in any game and has one red zone target. In this sample, Hockenson has had an 11.1% target share, 0.45 yards per route run, and an 11.6% first-read share. The matchup is nice for Hockenson this week, but I don’t know if he’ll get the volume to take advantage of it. Chicago has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• SF -2.5, O/U 48.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Brock Purdy will be back this week. In Purdy’s two starts this season, he finished as the QB13 and QB14 in weekly scoring. He is a borderline QB1 this week. Among 42 qualifying passers, he ranks first in passing yards per game, seventh in yards per attempt, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in hero throw rate. The Cardinals’ passing attack has taken a step back. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, and the eighth-highest success rate per dropback.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Since Week 6, Brissett has been the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks during this span, he has ranked second in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, ninth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 26th in catchable target rate. The immense passing volume for Arizona has hidden some per-dropback accuracy issues for Brissett, but he has still been a step up in quarterback play from Kyler Murray. This week, he could easily flirt with another QB1 fantasy performance. Since Week 6, San Francisco has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback. My only worry for Brissett is the lack of passing game weapons this week at his disposal with Marvin Harrison Jr. out. 

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 7, Jauan Jennings has been the WR34 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 23.1% target share with a 33.5% air-yard share and a 33.3% first-read share. He has churned out 47 receiving yards per game in that span with 1.77 yards per route run. In those four games, he has had five red zone targets and four deep targets. Arizona has the fifth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (58.2%). Since Week 7, against two high, Jennings has had a team-leading 27% target per route run rate with 1.73 yards per route run. Jennings is a strong flex play this week. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in receiving yards per game.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall will be back this week. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 20.9% target share, a 49.5% air-yard share, 93.7 receiving yards per game, 2.60 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. In those three games, he had three red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, he faces a secondary that has utilized two high at the fifth-highest rate (58.2%). Against two high, Pearsall has seen his target share dip to 13.9% with 1.23 yards per route run and a 19.1% first-read share. Pearsall is still a viable flex play this week, even if I don’t think he’ll be a high-volume option this week in the 49ers’ passing attack, as Arizona’s secondary has been vulnerable. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in receiving yards per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Emari Demercado (RB)

If you’re picking between flex options from the Arizona backfield this week, Emari Demercado is my preferred option. Last week, he had only one red zone rushing attempt, which isn’t great, but he has been the more efficient back by a mile with a 15.4% explosive run rate and 19% missed tackle rate. Last week, he played only 41.1% of the snaps with a 38.9% route share, but he turned his seven touches into 104 total yards. The matchup isn’t great this week, so Demercado likely needs a touchdown or big play to pay off as a flex. Since Week 6, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Zonovan Knight (RB)

Zonovan Knight left last week’s game with an ankle injury. He practiced on a limited basis this week and has been listed as questionable. Last week, he had a 46.6% snap rate, a 27.8% route share, an 8.9% target share, 11 touches, and 37 total yards. Knight led the backfield with two red zone rushing attempts. He hasn’t been impressive this season with only a 2.1% explosive run rate, an 8% missed tackle rate, and 1.60 yards after contact per attempt. Knight is a low-end touchdown-dependent flex. Since Week 6, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Michael Wilson will operate as the team’s second option in the passing game this week behind Trey McBride. Wilson hasn’t finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring this season in any week. He has only an 11.6% target share with 25.7 receiving yards per game, 0.78 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. Wilson has six red zone targets and five deep targets this season. He’s a low-end flex play this week. San Francisco has shut down perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -3, O/U 48.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Last week, Zach Charbonnet played 37.3% of the snaps with a 15.4% route share and 30.8% red zone snap share. Kenneth Walker outpaced Charbonnet in each of those categories. Walker also had four red zone rushing attempts while Charbonnet logged three. This backfield appears to be slowly turning in Walker’s favor despite the box score not showing it. Last week, Charbonnet finished with 14 touches and 83 total yards (one score). As Charbonnet has gotten healthy, his efficiency numbers have improved, as he has a 16% missed tackle rate and 2.43 yards after contact per attempt now. This week, he still offers flex/RB2 value against a Rams run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest success rate, and has logged the 13th-lowest stuff rate.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

The backfield is slowly turning in Kenneth Walker’s direction, but it’s tough to tell that from the box scores. Last week, Walker had 14 carries and 67 rushing yards. Zach Charbonnet finished with the same number of carries, and he and George Holani got into the end zone. Walker tied for the team lead with four red zone rushing attempts and led the way with a 40.7% snap rate, a 30.8% route share, and a 46.2% red zone snap share. In the first half, Walker had a 57.1% snap share while Charbonnet had a 28.6% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. Seattle won’t run away with this week’s game, so we can cancel out last week’s George Holani blip. Based on these numbers, I do think that positive regression is coming for Walker, and it could be this week. Among 64 qualifying backs, Walker ranks seventh in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackle rate. This week, he faces a Rams run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest success rate, the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs, the seventh-highest success rate to gap runs, and has logged the 13th-lowest stuff rate. Walker has been the leader for the team in gap run concepts (44.2%). I’m just as worried about Walker disappointing again this week, but the data is quite positive for him this week. I’ll close my eyes and plug him into lineups and trust the process.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Matthew Stafford faces a tall task this week. He has been playing at an MVP caliber level this season. This week could be the cherry on top of his candidacy, or it could take him out of the race. Stafford is the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks ninth in yards per attempt, second in passing yards per game, third in hero throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Seattle has blanketed opposing passing attacks this season. Stafford will have his work cut out for him. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating and success rate per dropback, and the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns (tied). Stafford can walk away with another solid game, but it won’t be easy.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Last week, Sam Darnold finished with only 5.9 fantasy points, but that wasn’t because he had a bad game. Seattle jumped out to a big lead early and then turtled. Darnold attempted only 12 passes and completed 83.3% of them with 14.8 yards per attempt. Among 42 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, tenth in passing yards per game, second in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate. Like Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold could have another solid game this week, but it won’t be an easy climb up that mountain. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the 14th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Last week, Rashid Shaheed had a 61.5% route share with an 8.3% target share, only three receiving yards, and a 14.3% first-read share. He spent the day running half of his routes from the slot and the other half on the perimeter. He did draw a red zone target in his first game. We need to see Shaheed’s role flesh itself out some more before I’m willing to flex him. If the matchup were better, I’d consider it, but since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter or slot receivers.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Last week, Cooper Kupp had a 61.5% route share with a 16.7% target share, 74 receiving yards, and zero first reads. The game went sideways in a blowout. A big takeaway from that small sample was that Kupp ran 75% of his routes on the perimeter. We could see his usage vary week to week as Seattle exploits matchups, but it’s still noteworthy. Kupp has four top-36 weekly finishes this season (WR21, WR32, WR24, WR35), but he has also finished outside the top-50 wide receivers four times. He’s not worth burning a flex spot over this week. The target volume concerns remain, but also, this is a bad matchup for him. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• KC -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Rashee Rice

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Bo Nix has been extremely volatile this season with four weekly finishes as a QB1 in fantasy but also on his 2025 resume are five games as the QB19 or lower in weekly scoring. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix ranks 35th in yards per attempt, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, 21st in hero throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. He has surpassed 20 rushing yards in a game six times this season while adding three rushing scores. Nix should have success against a Kansas City pass defense that has taken a surprising step back. Since Week 6, Kansas City has ranked 15th in yards per attempt while allowing the fourth-highest CPOE, the 12th-highest success rate per dropback, and the tenth-highest passer rating. During this span, the Chiefs have had the second-lowest pressure rate, so Nix should have plenty of time in the pocket this week.

RJ Harvey (RB)

RJ Harvey is set to step into an expanded role this week with J.K. Dobbins out. We’ll see what that role will be, but I expect him to lead the backfield in touches and contribute on early downs and in the passing game. Harvey has been effective this season with his workload. Among 64 qualifying backs, he ranks 30th in explosive run rate and 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt. Among 61 backs in the passing game, he is third in target per route run rate, eighth in yards per route run, and 11th in first downs per route run. The Chiefs have been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, giving up the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception, but they have been a tough rushing matchup. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, and had the sixth-highest stuff rate. Harvey will need volume and passing game usage to carry him over the finish line as a strong play this week, but that is quite possible.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Courtland Sutton is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 59 receiving yards per game, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 23.2% first-read share. Sutton is second on the team in red zone targets (six) and third in deep targets (ten). This week, he faces a Kansas City pass defense that, since Week 5, has had the ninth-highest single-high rate (56%). Sutton leads the team against single high with a 23.2% target share, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 27.7% first-read share. Sutton has a nice matchup this week as the Chiefs, since Week 6, have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Troy Franklin (WR)

Troy Franklin is in the midst of a breakout season. Franklin is the WR32 in fantasy points per game with top-26 weekly finishes in three of his last four games. Franklin has been giving Courtland Sutton a run for his money, leading the team with a 20.3% target share while averaging 42.5 receiving yards per game with 1.50 yards per route run and a 23.2% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Franklin leads the team in red zone targets (14) and deep targets (16). Franklin is tied for fifth in the NFL in red zone targets. This week, he faces a Kansas City pass defense that, since Week 5, has had the ninth-highest single-high rate (56%). Against single high, Franklin is second on the team with a 22.1% target share with 1.80 yards per route run and a 24.1% first-read share (second on the team). Franklin should have another strong week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Travis Kelce (TE)

Travis Kelce is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th among tight ends in deep targets and eighth in red zone targets. Kelce has a 16.5% target share with 60 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Denver has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (63.7%). Against two high, Kelce has a 21% target per route run rate and 1.84 yards per route run. Both are strong numbers. Kelce should post TE1-worthy numbers this week. Denver ranks 16th in receiving yards per game and has allowed the most yards per reception to tight ends this season.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

With Isiah Pacheco likely out again this week, Kareem Hunt will operate as the team’s bell cow again. In Week 9, Hunt played 80.7% of the snaps with a 50% route share (2.9% target share). Hunt finished with only 12 touches and 55 total yards. Hunt is a volume play. He has only a 1% explosive run rate this season with a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. Hunt needs volume and likely at least one touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week. Since Week 6, Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-lowest rushing success rate.

Brashard Smith (RB)

I love Brashard Smith just as much as the next degen, but I can’t play him this week. Kareem Hunt operated as the team’s bellcow in the last game before the bye. Smith had only a 17.5% snap rate, three touches, and seven total yards. I was expecting, with Isiah Pacheco out in Week 9, that Smith would get more playing time, but it didn’t happen. Hold Smith on your bench if you want, but he’s not flex-worthy this week.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Since Rashee Rice‘s return, Xavier Worthy hasn’t finished higher than WR38 in weekly scoring (WR47, WR38, WR57). Since Week 7, Worthy has had a 17.5% target share with 37 receiving yards per game, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 24.3% first-read share. In those three games, Worthy has had two red zone targets and three deep targets. Worthy is a sit this week. Since Week 8, Denver has had the fourth-highest two-high rate (63.7%). Against two high, Worthy has disappeared this season with a 16% target per route run rate and 0.67 yards per route run. Since Week 6, Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

NYJ vs. NE | WAS vs. MIA | LAC vs. JAC | TB vs. BUF | CAR vs.ATL | CIN vs. PIT | HOU vs. TEN | GB vs. NYG | CHI vs. MIN | SF vs. ARI | SEA vs. LAR | KC vs. DEN | BAL vs. CLE | DET vs. PHI | DAL vs. LV