Week 13 is unique because it’s Thanksgiving Week. As a result, there are three games on Thanksgiving and one on Black Friday, followed by a full day of action on Sunday and the traditional Monday Night Football matchup. The top storylines in Week 13 begin with a passing attack on Thursday. A team coming out of the bye is intriguing. Finally, a squad coming off a loss doesn’t have a get-right matchup, but can they bounce back?
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Fantasy Football Storylines
What Will Cincinnati’s Passing Attack Look Like?
Joe Burrow shocked fantasy football gamers, pundits, and NFL journalists alike last week. He was a full participant in practice for the Bengals on Wednesday and Thursday. As Baltimore’s fiasco earlier in the year, when they listed Lamar Jackson as a full participant when he worked with the scout team before having to change his participation level, taught me and others, Burrow’s listing meant he worked as the starting quarterback in those practices. He was a limited participant on Friday, allowing Joe Flacco to bump from two limited sessions to full practice participation to close the week before starting on Sunday.
Will Burrow reprise his starting role this week? Thanksgiving was the estimated return date floated just before Burrow’s injured reserve (IR) practice window was opened, and Zac Taylor says he expects him to play. Unfortunately, Tee Higgins suffered an ugly concussion on Sunday. He’ll be out this week.
The Bengals will get Ja’Marr Chase back from his one-game suspension for spitting on Jalen Ramsey. Chase is obviously Cincinnati’s top dog in the passing attack. However, Mike Gesicki could be a viable starting tight end with Burrow starting. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gesicki’s 26 routes in his first game back from IR in Week 12 trailed only Andrei Iosivas‘s 35, Mitch Tinsley‘s 30 and Chase Brown‘s 30 among teammates. Noah Fant and Tanner Hudson ran only seven and 13 routes, respectively.
Gesicki turned his playing time into six targets, four receptions and 35 receiving yards. Additionally, Gesicki thrived without Higgins last year. Higgins missed five games last year (Week 1, Week 2 and Week 8 through Week 10). Gesicki recorded the following stats, per the Fantasy Points data suite:
- 59.9% route participation rate
- 9.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 22.5% air yards share
- 18.3% target share
- 0.28 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 22.6% first-read rate
- 7.2 targets per game
- 26 receptions (5.2 per game)
- 312 receiving yards (62.4 per game)
- 2.40 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- 2 receiving touchdowns
Gesicki has a below-average fantasy matchup. Nevertheless, he’s a viable tight end streamer for gamers in a pinch.
Will Denver Make Any Sizable Changes out of Their Bye?
Does Sean Payton have any tricks up his sleeve for Denver’s offense after self-scouting during the club’s bye in Week 12? J.K. Dobbins suffered an unfortunate injury at the end of Week 11’s game, and RJ Harvey had a 61% snap share. Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie each had a 13% snap share.
In that contest, Harvey and McLaughlin were Denver’s only running backs to carry the ball, with the rookie tallying 11 carries for 30 rushing yards, and McLaughlin toting the rock six times for 19 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was the backfield’s only rush attempt inside the 5-yard line. Will Harvey have a chance for goal-line opportunities this week and going forward?
Harvey’s 34.1% route participation rate in Week 11 was markedly higher than Badie’s 12.2% and McLaughlin’s 4.9% route participation rates. There’s also wiggle room for Harvey to soak up more routes. Harvey should be treated as an RB2 this week. Still, his value could skyrocket or plummet, depending on how Payton divvies up backfield opportunities this week.
Another rookie’s ascension could hit a fever pitch after the bye. Pat Bryant played his way into more playing time just before the bye. The table below has his receiving numbers in two different splits.
Bryant’s not yet trustworthy in 12-team leagues. However, he could be worth a bench spot in 12-team leagues with deep benches or larger leagues with medium-sized benches. Troy Franklin has tallied inefficient air yards, and Courtland Sutton had just eight receptions and 37.7 receiving yards per game in Denver’s final three games before the bye. There’s room for Bryant to carve out a meaningful role in a passing attack that doesn’t include a blue-chip pass-catching weapon.
Can the Colts Bounce Back From a Heartbreaking Loss?
The Colts lost to the Chiefs in overtime in Kansas City in Week 12. It wasn’t an ideal outcome out of their bye after needing overtime to beat the unimpressive Falcons abroad in Week 10.
Daniel Jones was in rough form entering the Colts’ Week 11 bye. According to PFF, Danny Dimes had nine turnover-worthy plays and a wretched 8.7% turnover-worthy play rate in Weeks 9-10. He also took 12 sacks in those games.
Week 12 wasn’t a totally lost cause for the Colts in their loss. Jones didn’t take a sack or have a turnover against the Chiefs. Sadly, his ball protection and sack aversion were accompanied by only 181 passing yards at 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Jones threw two touchdowns, and he also added 16 scoreless rushing yards. Still, he’ll need to find a happy medium between creating big plays and taking care of the football he couldn’t find recently. The Texans are a nightmare matchup for striking that balance.
Houston stuffed Josh Allen in a locker in Week 12. They sacked him eight times and picked him off twice. The Texans will also have a rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Houston surrendered 116 rushing yards and a touchdown to James Cook. Obviously, no one is benching Jonathan Taylor, but perhaps he can rebound from a disappointing 66 scoreless yards on 16 rush attempts, three targets and two receptions against the Chiefs.
Tight end is a thin enough position that gamers should fire up Tyler Warren, barring a high-end alternative in Week 13. Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are less desirable fantasy options against the Texans, though. Furthermore, if Danny Dimes has a dud against the Texans, gamers might have a difficult time trusting Colts wideouts when they are in Seattle against their talented defense in Week 15. Conversely, a stellar showing from Jones in Week 13 can assuage concerns about him generating fantasy value for multiple pass-catching weapons.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.


