The fantasy football semifinals are here, and if you’re reading this, congratulations on making it! I’ve been banging the drum of planning ahead for the last several weeks, but sometimes plans have to change. So before we get to this week’s rankings, let’s go over some teams you should consider planning for Week 17.
- The Denver Broncos are a top tier defense, and following Patrick Mahomes‘ season-ending injury last week, they get to face Gardner Minshew II on Christmas.
- The Detroit Lions face J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings in week 17. McCarthy has played better lately and no longer looks like the worst QB in the league, but he’s still in range for a solid defense like the Lions.
- The Los Angeles Rams: Hopefully you’ve been holding the Rams though their bad matchups this week and last, because they’re one of the league’s best defenses, and get to face Atlanta in Week 17. They also have the added bonus of being playable in Week 18 against the Cardinals, for those leagues.
- The New England Patriots are another team you’ve hopefully been holding through the bad matchups, because they get to face one of the league’s worst offenses in the Jets in Week 17. They should be good against the Dolphins in Week 18 as well.
- The New Orleans Saints are an underrated defense, and are by far the most widely available team that has a good outlook this week. After you play them against the Jets, they’ll be usable again in Week 17 against the Titans.
- The New York Giants: death, taxes, and the Raiders being terrible. These things are inevitable. The Giants are a borderline play this week, but will be an easy start against the league’s worst offense. The Raiders, who were shut out last week, haven’t reached the 20 point threshold since Week 9.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are a definite fade this week against the Lions, but have a great outlook in Week 17 against the Browns. Shedeur Sanders has looked like a real NFL starter, but not one that should scare off a solid defense like the Steelers.
- The Seattle Seahawks are yet another great defense with a no-thank-you matchup this week (the Rams), but a in Week 17 they face the Panthers. Carolina has been boom bust this year, and I expect another bust against a defense this good.
Streaming Defenses: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 16)
While there are a few great plays, this is a tough week for streaming overall. Some of the best matchups have either been playing better lately or are facing below-average defenses. If you’re a regular reader you might already have a defense for this week, and if not, there’s a good chance one of my top 4 teams is available in your league. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Bluesky.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | HOU | LV | Kenny Pickett | 11.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 93% |
| 2 | BUF | @CLE | Shedeur Sanders | 16.25 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 54% |
| 3 | KC | @TEN | Cam Ward | 17 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 57% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 4 | NO | NYJ | Tyrod Taylor | 18 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.50 | 17% |
| 5 | PHI | @WAS | Marcus Mariota | 19 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.21 | 92% |
| 6 | DEN | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 21.25 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.14 | 93% |
| 7 | MIN | @NYG | Jaxson Dart | 20.25 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.12 | 35% |
| 8 | TEN | KC | Gardner Minshew II | 20.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.11 | 18% |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 9 | NYG | MIN | J.J. McCarthy | 23.25 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 6.03 | 5% |
| 10 | NYJ | @NO | Tyler Shough | 22.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.00 | 8% |
| The Certainly You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | TB | @CAR | Bryce Young | 21.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.89 | 48% |
| 12 | BAL | NE | Drake Maye | 22.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5.81 | 48% |
| 13 | LAR | @SEA | Sam Darnold | 21.75 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.75 | 65% |
| 14 | ATL | @ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 22.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.73 | 21% |
| 15 | SF | @IND | Philip Rivers | 20.25 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.71 | 50% |
| 16 | SEA | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 22.75 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5.62 | 94% |
| 17 | DET | PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 21.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.52 | 53% |
| 18 | DAL | LAC | Justin Herbert | 23.75 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.39 | 35% |
| 19 | GB | @CHI | Caleb Williams | 22.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.29 | 53% |
| 20 | MIA | CIN | Joe Burrow | 26 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.14 | 20% |
| 21 | CAR | TB | Baker Mayfield | 24.25 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5.05 | 13% |
| 22 | CIN | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 24.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4.89 | 3% |
| 23 | CLE | BUF | Josh Allen | 26.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.84 | 59% |
| 24 | LAC | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 25.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.80 | 41% |
| 25 | LV | @HOU | C.J. Stroud | 26 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.78 | 9% |
| 26 | NE | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 25.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.76 | 47% |
| 27 | WAS | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 25.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.65 | 14% |
| 28 | ARI | ATL | Kirk Cousins | 25 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.61 | 4% |
| 29 | CHI | GB | Jordan Love | 24 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4.49 | 45% |
| 30 | IND | SF | Brock Purdy | 26.25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.48 | 25% |
| 31 | JAC | @DEN | Bo Nix | 24.25 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4.30 | 76% |
| 32 | PIT | @DET | Jared Goff | 28.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 70% |
Matchups
- HOU vs LV: Last week, Kenny Pickett and the Raiders got shut out by a pretty good Eagles defense. This week they’re on the road again and have to play the actual best defense in the league, Houston. As a result, the Raiders have the lowest Vegas-based points projection I’ve ever seen at 11.5 points. Anything less than 16 is extremely rare. Last week I commented about the Eagles vs LV that it was the kind of matchup you dream about for the fantasy playoffs, and this is even better.
- BUF @ CLE: After a close, competitive loss to the Titans in Week 14, Shedeur Sanders and the Browns showed their other side last week, getting totally embarrassed by the Bears. Sanders threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks, and all the Browns had to show for it was a field goal. An above average defense in a great matchup is right where you want to be for the fantasy playoffs, and the Bills are available in almost half of all leagues.
- KC @ TEN: The Chiefs are out of the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era, but I would be surprised if they rested healthy starters before Week 18. Last week they were able to take advantage of the Chargers’ depleted offensive line to the tune of 4 sacks and 16 points allowed. The Titans have shaken their status as an every-week A+ defense target in the last couple weeks, but that doesn’t really worry me for the Chiefs. It was genuinely impressive that Cam Ward took only one sack from the Browns in Week 14, but it doesn’t concern me that he took zero from the 49ers last week – they haven’t been able to sack anyone this season since their top two pass rushers went down with injuries. I expect the Chiefs’ defense to dominate the Titans, even if the Chiefs’ offense is in shambles.
- NO vs NYJ: With Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor both injured, the Jets gave undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook his first start last week against the Jags, and it went maybe a bit better than you’d expect, but still quite bad. Cook threw 3 interceptions and took 3 sacks, while recording one passing touchdown en route to a 20-48 loss. Coach Aaron Glenn declined to name next week’s starter before Wednesday, which gives me the impression that Tyrod Taylor will play if he’s healthy enough. The Saints’ last couple fantasy performances have been mediocre due to a lack of sacks, but I expect they’ll have an easier time getting to Taylor or Cook than they did against Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young. Their upside is a bit limited though if Taylor plays, because he’s not very turnover-prone by backup QB standards.
- PHI @ WAS: The Eagle’s defense posted top-4 fantasy finishes in both of the past two weeks, thanks to a season-high 7 sacks against the Chargers and pitching a shutout against the Raiders. Jayden Daniels re-aggravated his elbow injury in Week 14, and yesterday it was announced he would sit the rest of the season, making Marcus Mariota the starter. Mariota has played pretty well in his opportunities to start this season, but not well enough that I would fade a defense as good as the Eagles.
- DEN vs JAC: Trevor Lawrence was awesome last week, saving many a fantasy team with 6 total touchdowns – 5 passing and 1 on the ground. So then why am I ranking the Jags opponent as a starter this week? Because it’s the Broncos. They remain on the very short list of Super Bowl-level defenses. Last week they faced a high-flying Packers offense and handed Jordan Love his first 2-interception game, and worst QB rating, of the season. Last week notwithstanding, Trevor Lawrence has been more prone to both sacks and turnovers than Love. In the Jags’ last three games against Denver-level defenses, Lawrence took 19 sacks: 7 from Seattle, 7 from the Rams and 5 from the Texans. The outlook for turnovers and sacks is good here, even if the points allowed projection isn’t the lowest.
- MIN @ NYG: Overshadowed by their offensive struggles, the Vikings defense has quietly been pretty good lately. Last week they kept the high-powered Cowboys offense in check enough to pull off the upset. Prior to that they recorded a couple of nice fantasy finishes with a shutout over the Commanders, and a 4-sack performance against the Seahawks. Now they face a Giants team that just hasn’t been the same since Cam Skattebo went down, and have lost 8 in a row including the game before Skattebo’s injury. Jaxson Dart hasn’t taken more than 2 sacks in a game since week 8, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vikings change that.
- TEN vs KC: Not only were the Chiefs eliminated from the playoffs last week, but Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL late in the game, ending his season. Gardner Minshew II took over, and needed only 5 pass attempts to throw an interception. Minshew has bounced around the league as a borderline starter, most recently starting 10 games for the Raiders last season. In that time Minshew posted a healthy 2.9 sacks per game and a 9-10 TD-INT ratio, underwater for the first time in his career. Supporting casts don’t get much worse than last year’s Raiders, but I would be shocked to see him perform dramatically better on a totally demoralized Chiefs team.
- NYG vs MIN: J.J. McCarthy has paradoxically played way better since his Concussion in Week 12. He had a firm grasp on the title of worst QB in the league in weeks 9-12, then after missing Week 13, he’s played very well though two games. In Week 14 he recorded his first zero-turnover game in a shutout win over the Commanders, though he did still take 4 sacks. Last week he played spoiler, upsetting the Cowboys despite the Vikings already being eliminated from the playoffs. Now he faces a not-particularly-good Giants defense. This is a risky play, but turnovers are largely the offense’s fault, and a multi-interception day is still on the table for McCarthy. If you’re an underdog and need to shoot for the moon, you could to worse than targeting the Vikings.
- NYJ @ NO: Saints QB Tyler Shough is everyone’s favorite QB streamer this week, between his rushing upside and the fact that he’s facing the Jets, who got absolutely wrecked by the Jags last week. While the Saints have won their last two games, they haven’t needed a whole lot of points to do it. Shough has taken 17 sacks in four games since the Saints’ Week 11 bye, mostly against teams that aren’t known for their pass rush. I think another game with 3-5 sacks and 20-ish points is likely.