FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS ARE HERE LFG.
Week 15 and the first round of fantasy football playoffs are in the books. Focus moves to the semi-finals.
This means we’re zeroing in on what really matters: playoff stashes, injury fallout, drop candidates, player usage shifts, and schedule advantages — plus the key questions that were answered this week and the new ones we still need to figure out.
And I’m holding myself accountable to the name of this column — to truly go beyond the box score. No regurgitated stat dumps here (aside from the advanced ones provided by Next Gen Stats). Just the signal, not the noise.
I want to save time. You want to save time. Win-win, baby. Less is more.
Here goes nothing. Beyond the Waiver Wire. We are OFF.
And consider this your Strength of Schedule ROS cheat sheet to help with transactions off the waiver wire ROS.
Also, check out the ROS rankings.
But if you are done in your fantasy football league this year (somebody had to face Kyle Pitts or Trevor Lawrence this week), fear not! We’ve got you covered with coverage on BettingPros. And the end of the season means one thing – incentive szn. I’ll start dropping contract incentives player notes.
- Week 16
- Best QBs: Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Saints
- Worst QBs: Jaguars, Cowboys
- Best RBs: Falcons, Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Vikings, Saints, Commanders
- Worst RBs: Seahawks, Rams, Steelers, Broncos, Texans
- Best WRs: Chargers, Eagles, Packers
- Worst WRs: Commanders, Jaguars
- Best TEs: Cowboys, Dolphins, Panthers
- Worst TEs: Vikings, Bills, Seahawks
- Best Ks: Saints, Patriots, Falcons, Chargers
- Worst Ks: Broncos, Colts, Rams
- Weeks 16-17 (ROS Fantasy Football Playoffs)
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- Best QBs: Dolphins, Packers, Eagles, Cardinals, Saints
- Worst QBs: Jaguars, Texans, Chiefs, Panthers, Broncos
- Best RBs: Bengals, Patriots, Saints, Commanders, Raiders, Browns, 49ers, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Eagles
- Worst RBs: Broncos, Steelers
- Best WRs: Saints, Eagles, Packers, Steelers
- Worst WRs: Panthers, Broncos, Jaguars, Texans, Colts, Giants
- Best TEs: Cowboys, Dolphins
- Worst TEs: Raiders, Bills
- Best Ks: Patriots, Texans, Bengals, Commanders, Saints, Cardinals
- Best DSTs: Saints, Texans, Cowboys, Giants
- Worst DSTs: Chargers, Broncos, Colts, Rams, Jaguars, 49ers, Bears
Arizona Cardinals
Add Emari Demercado & Michael Carter
Bam Knight (ankle) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game versus the Texans.
Michael Carter led the backfield with 14 carries for 56 yards (four catches on four targets). Emari Demercado only had one carry in his first game back (three targets).
If Knight misses Week 16, I’d expect more of a committee with Demercado leading the charge. That’s because from Weeks 9-10 (the last two games Demercado played before his injury, Carter was either inactive or clearly behind him in the pecking order. His snaps increased directly in correlation with Demercado’s missed time (Weeks 11-14).
Both RBs are worth adding, but I prefer Demercado straight up (presuming we get more positive reports regarding his health this week, as he only played 7 snaps versus the Texans).
Trey McBride caught 12 of 13 targets for a career-high 134 yards and two touchdowns.
McBride was particularly effective in the slot, hauling in eight receptions on eight targets for a career-high 107 yards and a touchdown. He also generated a career-high 97 yards after the catch, the second-most by a tight end in a game this season (Next Gen Stats).
Michael Wilson also did it AGAIN without Marvin Harrison Jr. 5-54-1 on 11 targets. He did get hurt briefly but returned to game action.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 17 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 18 | at Los Angeles Rams |
Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts caught 11 of 12 targets for 166 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15.
He caught all 8 of his targets for 124 yards and three touchdowns when aligned detached (wide or slot), tying Travis Kelce (Week 11, 2022) and Robert Tonyan (Week 4, 2020) for the most touchdowns by a tight end from detached alignments in a game in the last decade. Pitts did much of his damage against zone coverage, catching seven passes for a career-high 115 yards and a score. He caught his other two touchdowns against man coverage after entering the game with just five touchdowns against man in his career (Next Gen Stats).
Pitts scored a career-high 45.6 PPR points on Thursday night against the Buccaneers.
He had not cleared 100 receiving yards in a single game since Week 16 of his rookie season in 2021, but finally did so against Tampa Bay, catching 11 of 12 targets for 166 yards and three touchdowns, marking the first hat trick of his career. Pitts dominated from the slot, generating a career-high 116 yards from that alignment. He has continued to thrive in games without Drake London and with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, earning 19 more targets (44), 15 more receptions (35), and 221 more receiving yards (422) than any other Falcon in those contests (Weeks 8, 12-15).
Pitts is a locked-and-loaded fantasy TE1 as long as Drake London is out. Now the question remains…how does London’s potential return impact Pitts? Again, it’s probably a moot point given the tight end position in fantasy football. Most people won’t have better options. And the Cardinals are a top-10 matchup for TEs in Week 16.
We haven’t seen the Pitts’ splits with London and Cousins this season.
With London, Pitts was averaging 6.6 points per game. Last year with Cousins/London…Pitts was averaging 7 points per game.
London was upgraded to day-to-day, so he may play in Week 16.
And I think these quotes by HC Raheem Morris are pretty blunt.
S/O to CoachSpeakIndex‘s Discord: “He got the targets that Drake London would get, and he got his targets that he would normally get. Twenty carries for Bijan, 12 targets for London, and 10 targets for Pitts, then some usage for Darnell Mooney, Tyler Allgeier, etc.”
Morris says he is “hopeful” for London to come back this week.
However, as an overarching thought with Pitts (and just TEs in general), this is the archetype to target. Pitts, Harold Fannin Jr., etc, guys who are putting up some strong, decent floors most weeks – where the ceiling hasn’t quite hit. Then a matchup or injury falls in their favor, and bang… cooking with GAS. Maybe this could be Mike Gesicki over the next few weeks with Tee Higgins‘ concussion.
Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns in the Falcons’ Week 15 win against the Buccaneers.
He was particularly effective in shotgun, completing 23 of 29 passes for 281 yards and all 3 of his touchdown passes. Cousins also dominated when passing over 2.5 seconds, completing 21 of 32 attempts for 300 yards and two touchdowns, his most passing yards on such throws since his Week 5 performance last season against the Buccaneers (323 yards), according to Next Gen Stats.
Cousins owns the Bucs’ defense. And to a lesser extent, so does Pitts, who scored twice against them last season and went 4-91-2 the previous year playing at TB. Next week? 1 catch for 11 yards.
Bijan Robinson rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while adding eight catches on 11 targets for 82 yards in the air, in the Falcons’ win on Thursday Night Football.
Robinson finished with 16 carries out of 12 personnel, earning 81 yards (5.1 yards per carry), and all three explosive runs (10+ yards) and his lone touchdown. Through the air, his 96 yards after catch rank as the sixth-most by any running back this season and the third-most of his career, trailing only his Week 1 performance, also against the Buccaneers (108).
Atlanta lost CB Mike Hughes (ankle) on Thursday Night. He has been on the Falcons’ other starting boundary CB. After his injury, Cobee Bryant (undrafted 2025 rookie FA) was forced into action. He allowed seven catches for 134 yards on nine targets. Hughes has already been ruled out for Week 16.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 17 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Week 18 | New Orleans Saints |
Baltimore Ravens
Hold Mark Andrews | Add Isaiah Likely | Hold Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry had 11 carries, 100 rushing yards, and 9.1 yards per carry in Week 15, his fifth game this season with 100+ rushing yards. Henry became the fourth player in NFL history to record at least 3,000 rushing yards in his first two seasons with a new team, joining Ricky Williams (3,225 with Miami), Priest Holmes (3,170 with Kansas City), and Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis (3,096 with Pittsburgh) via Next Gen Stats.
Keaton Mitchell also chipped in 66 yards on eight carries. He actually out-snapped Henry, although he played a handful of snaps with Tyler Huntley closing out the game. Regardless, Mitchell was involved early.
Rashod Bateman was inactive, so Devontez Walker soaked up additional snaps (61%). But DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks. Coaches have talked him up…so we might see his snaps increase. He has contract incentives FWIW (611 yards, 6 TDs, and 48% snap share).
Mark Andrews played just 41% of the snaps – lower than both Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. Even so, the Ravens TE caught two passes for 18 yards in three targets.
Likely was such a disappointment given how involved he has been in the last two games leading up to the Bengals’ matchup (especially in the red zone area). Still has nine catches to Andrews’ 7 in the last three games. Likely has been a top 12 TE in two of the previous three weeks, despite two TDs that didn’t convert.
The Ravens attempted only 12 passes, so passing volume was nonexistent in a game where they ran 40 offensive plays. The Patriots are terrible in the red zone, so I think we could see these Ravens TEs bounce back (31st in passing TD allowed and 32nd in red-zone TD rate).
We should see Lamar Jackson throw for multiple TDs in this game.
Both CBs, Marlon Humphrey (returned) and Chidobe Awuzie, also got hurt (TBD for Sunday). LB Teddye Buchanan tore his ACL.
Schedule
| Week 16 | New England Patriots |
| Week 17 | at Green Bay Packers |
| Week 18 | at the Pittsburgh Steelers |
Buffalo Bills
Hold Khalil Shakir
James Cook led Buffalo with 22 carries, 107 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and one receiving touchdown in the Week 15 win over the Patriots. Cook has recorded 100+ scrimmage yards in 11 games in 2025, the most in the NFL entering the late games. The Bills are 10-1 in games when Cook has 100+ scrimmage yards this season, compared to 0-3 when he has fewer than 100 yards (NGS).
Note that Cook’s playoff schedule is pretty bad. Another road game against an elite run defense, then Philly at home. Bottom-10 playoff schedule for RBs.
However, the Eagles’ defense is not nearly as scary without DT Jalen Carter. The Browns’ run defense also looked to lose a step without Maliek Collins. So perhaps the matchups won’t be as bad as previously forecasted (it was the case with the Patriots sans Milton Williams in Week 15).
Khalil Shakir was the target leader (5), catching five for 65 yards (although the majority of his yardage came on a phantom catch). The Bills’ No. 1 WR has incentives that hit at 80 catches, 900 yards, and with every TD he catches from here on out. If we see Shakir go on a TD streak…that’s why.
Both TEs saw four targets, but Dawson Knox scored the two TDs. He has been playing ahead of Dalton Kincaid in routes/snaps the last two games. Knox has been playing well and likely won’t just go away. Allen trusts him, and he has a bunch of contract incentives within range – 30 catches, 400 yards, 4-plus TDs.
Josh Palmer‘s return coincided with Gabe Davis being a healthy scratch.
Bills did not have either CB Christian Benford or LB Terrel Bernard. DT Jordan Phillips also got hurt.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 18 | New York Jets |
Carolina Panthers
Hold Tetairoa McMillan | Hold Rico Dowdle & Add Chuba Hubbard & Add Jalen Coker
Bryce Young completed 14 of his 23 pass attempts for 174 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. On passes over 10 air yards, Young finished 5 for 8 for 126 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker in the third quarter. Young also completed all four of his attempts against the blitz for 52 yards. Across seven scrambles, Young gained 49 yards on the ground, earning three first downs on three explosive runs (Next Gen Stats).
Tetairoa McMillan had a 12-yard catch that was overturned to incomplete near the sideline and only had two catches for 25 yards (4 targets). Season low in yardage. He and Young also missed him on a potential TD. No Panthers WR saw more than four targets.
Jalen Coker led the team in yardage while also drawing four targets.
Against the pass-funnel Buccaneers defense, we should see more passing volume for all the Panthers WRs.
Young threw 46 and 28 times in two games last year vs Tampa Bay (throwing for 298 and 203 yards). The pass attempts line was set even higher than 30.5 (around his average this season) in last year’s matchups versus TB. In those games, the Panthers posted the following: +6% PROE / 15% PROE. Only QBs since Week 5 to finish dramatically UNDER their pass attempts prop vs Tampa this season? Saints QBs.
Rico Dowdle had an injury scare early on but finished the game with 16 carries for 49 yards and 1 TD (60% snap share). Chuba Hubbard had eight carries for 29 yards. Both RBs saw one target. First time Dowdle has out-touched Hubbard by more than three in the last three games.
Even so, in the last five weeks, Dowdle has not finished higher than RB14 on the week. In fact, Dowdle only has one RB1 finish since Hubbard returned to the lineup in Week 7.
The Panthers RB does have some noteworthy contract incentives: 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs are what remains (sitting at 1237 yards and 6 TDs).
Ja’Tavion Sanders ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks – marking a season high.
Panthers DL Tershawn Wharton injured his hamstring this weekend.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 17 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 18 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Chicago Bears
Drop Rome Odunze | Add DJ Moore & Colston Loveland
Rome Odunze re-injured his foot during pre-game warm-ups and did not play. He has labeled week-to-week. He can be dropped in leagues that end in Week 17.
Luther Burder left the game with an ankle injury (labeled day-to-day). Before exiting, Burden led the team with seven targets, catching 6 for 84 yards (back-to-back weeks leading the team in targets). And he did it on just 39% of the snaps played, resulting in a 44% target rate per route run.
DJ Moore also scored twice on five targets (4-69) while leading the team in routes run. Colston Loveland also commanded five targets, catching 4 for 63 yards. Cole Kmet also left the game briefly.
The Bears generated 22 pressures on 42 dropbacks (52.4%) and recorded five sacks in their Week 15 win, their most pressures in a single game in five seasons (22 in Week 15, 2020).
Montez Sweat led the team with seven pressures while Austin Booker recorded six pressures and two sacks – they are the first pair of Bears teammates with at least six pressures in a game since Week 11, 2021. The Bears played Cover 4 on 10 dropbacks and held Shedeur Sanders to 1 of 8 for 9 yards, an interception, and a sack. On 36 total dropbacks in zone coverage, they allowed 3.0 yards per dropback and intercepted three passes.
D’Andre Swift had the game I envisioned for rookie Kyle Monangai. 18 carries for 98 yards and two TDs. The rookie was still involved – 11 carries for 33 yards with three goal-line carries – but the veteran had the hot hand against a Browns’ defense that continues to be vulnerable versus the run in recent weeks. Monangai also had two targets that resulted in ugly drops.
Rematch in Week 16 versus the Packers.
After completing just 6 of 14 passes in the first half for 32 yards (25.0% success rate), Caleb Williams completed 13 of his last 21 passes for 154 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception in the second half (56.5% success rate). Despite trailing for nearly the entire game, Williams used play action on a career-high 61.5% of his dropbacks, with 134 of his 144 yards off of play action coming in the second half. Williams was under constant duress, but was sacked just once across 16 pressures. He threw a career-high 42.9% of his passes on the run, including both touchdowns and the interception to end the game (Next Gen Stats).
After recording a 35.7% success rate and zero explosive plays in the first half, the Bears recorded a 62.5% success rate and five explosive plays in the second half of the Week 14 matchup against the Packers.
The Bears’ zero explosive plays in the first half were their first such game this season, and their 35.7% success rate was their 3rd-lowest. The Bears were much better on the ground in the second half, recording a 68.4% rushing success rate, their 2nd-highest of the season. The Bears have now generated a league-high 49.5% rushing success rate in second halves this season, 1.9% higher than the next closest team (Vikings, 47.6%).
Rookie tight end Colston Loveland had another 17-yard gain overturned to an incomplete pass. Finished the day with 4-29-1 on five targets.
Without Rome Odunze – week to week with a foot fracture – Luther Burden led the Bears with six targets, going four for 67 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats: Burden played a career-high 70.6% of snaps with Rome Odunze sidelined. Odunze missed the game with a foot injury and has reportedly been playing through a fracture throughout the season, but he is considered week-to-week moving forward. With Odunze out, Burden played 48 of 68 snaps and ran a route on 24 of Caleb Williams‘ 39 dropbacks (61.5%).
Backfield was a split in the typical two-headed monster fashion. Per usual, Swift was more involved as a receiver (four targets resulting in a 57% snap share), but Kyle Monangai scored the 2-point conversion. Although Swift did see his fair share of red-zone rushes (4), neither was able to score a rushing touchdown. Monangai runs like a bowling ball, and you can see why the Bears like him so much. Runs super hard and plays physically.
Monangai has 12-plus carries in four straight games. And per Next Gen Stats…Since Week 9, Kyle Monangai has totaled 154 rushing yards before contact, 3rd-most in the NFL during that span.
The Bears have three players with 100+ rushing yards before contact in that span (Caleb Williams, 123, and D’Andre Swift, 101); only one other team has more than one (Rams). Monangai’s 308 yards after contact since Week 9 is tied for the 10th most during that span, while Swift has the 17th-highest mark (272).
WR DJ Moore was a non-factor with one catch for -4 yards on three targets. Missed Moore on the final play of the game that could have been the game-tying touchdown. Ben Johnson said they had more plays designed for Moore – so he was equally as surprised about his lack of involvement, although that has been the constant theme with Moore all season.
CB Kyler Gordon suffered a groin injury in warmups and has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest against the Packers. Nahshon Wright also got hurt after taking a kick to the head.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| Week 17 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 18 | Detroit Lions |
Cincinnati Bengals
Add Mike Gesicki & Samaje Perine
Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 of 16 targets for 132 yards in the Bengals’ Week 15 loss to the Ravens. He matched up against Nate Wiggins on 18 snaps, catching 6 of 9 targets for 77 yards. Chase was highly effective against zone coverage, hauling in 9 of 12 targets for 130 yards, but managed just one catch for two yards on four targets versus man coverage.
OT Amarius Mims left the game with a knee injury.
TE Noah Fant also got hurt, along with DT Kris Jenkins and RB Samaje Perine.
Chase Brown carried the ball 13 times for 53 yards, whereas Samaje Perine drew 14 carries for 42 yards (also fumbled). Brown still did damage as a receiver (7 for 7 for 37 yards), so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the carry split.
However, nothing new to report as the snaps and touches were close to that 60/40 split. Brown played 62% of the snaps and had 20 opportunities. Perine also got hurt, so keep that in mind.
Again, Perine’s usage takes some of Brown’s shine off, but he’s good enough with favorable matchups to still be a low-end fantasy RB1 ROS given the schedule.
From Weeks 16-17, the Bengals face the Dolphins and Cardinals. Tied with the Patriots for the No. 1 RB schedule in the playoffs.
If Brown were to miss, Perine could get FED. Contract incentives that hit at 500 rushing yards.
Mike Gesicki‘s struggles versus the Ravens continued. One catch for 11 yards (two downfield targets). Usage was solid though, without Tee Higgins in the lineup – running a route on 76% of the dropbacks (season-high). If Higgins misses another game (still in concussion protocol as of Monday), I’d go right back to Gesicki in a better matchup versus Miami.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 17 | Arizona Cardinals |
| Week 18 | Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns
Quinshon Judkins handled the majority of RB touches with 12 carries for just 21 yards (67% snap share) with three catches for -4 yards. Trayveon Williams was the other RB with Dylan Sampson inactive.
The Browns’ OL is pretty banged up, hence Judkins’ poor YPC.
Even so, Judkins has 16-plus RB opportunities in 10 of his last 12 games played. And the Bills are next.
The Browns have a top-10 schedule ROS for RBs.
Tight end Harold Fannin played nearly every snap, commanding 14 targets. But just seven catches for 48 yards. Nobody else had more than four targets (Isaiah Bond/Jerry Jeudy).
Fannin is the clear-cut target leader with Sanders in the last five games, and injuries are concentrating the targets around him.
OG Teven Jenkins left the game with a shoulder injury.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Buffalo Bills |
| Week 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 18 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
Dallas Cowboys
Add Cowboys DST
Javonte Williams scored the game’s first TD after a JJ McCarthy interception, but was later ruled out with a shoulder injury. However, he did return in the second half. FB/RB Hunter Luepke suffered a concussion. Malik Davis scored in relief of Williams, cementing his status as the handcuff to Williams.
CeeDee Lamb didn’t miss any time despite suffering a concussion in Week 14. 6-111 on 10 targets. However, George Pickens posted another dud, going just 3 for 33 yards. And for the second straight week, the effort on the field looked a bit lackluster.
Still, Pickens’ week-winning upside is too high to leave on fantasy benches. He also got some Coachspeak love after the loss to Minnesota about finding ways to get him the ball better (whatever that means). Even in a tough on-paper matchup versus the Chargers, Pickens has a top-5 ceiling.
Pickens has four top 5 finishes…two with Lamb and two without Lamb in the lineup. Lamb has just one this season after his eruption on Thanksgiving.
TE Jake Ferguson was on the injury report this week and bombed in the game with just two catches for 16 yards (4 targets).
In the last seven games, Ferguson has averaged under a 14% target share.
Additionally, his routes have dropped off slightly, from 80-plus percent to around 70%.
ROS is solid for the Cowboys’ tight end, especially in the playoffs, ranking No. 1 in the SOS tool. The Chargers’ Week 16 matchup is a 5-star matchup rating.
Cowboys DT Quinnen Williams suffered two head injuries against the Vikings. He returned from the first one. He will begin the week in concussion protocol, according to Clarence Hill Jr. on X. If he misses, that will open up things dramatically for the Chargers’ rushing attack in Week 16.
It might be wise to look for alternatives to the Dallas DST if Williams can’t go—still not a terrible option, but not nearly as great.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 17 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 18 | at New York Giants |
Denver Broncos
Add Jaleel McLaughlin & Troy Franklin | Sell RJ Harvey
Bo Nix tied a career high with four passing touchdowns in a Week 15 win over the Packers, finishing with 302 passing yards and zero interceptions.
This marked Nix’s fourth career game with four-plus passing touchdowns. Only Patrick Mahomes and Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino have recorded more games with four-plus passing touchdowns in their first two NFL seasons.
Pat Bryant was inactive, while Marvin Mims got hurt (returned to the game). Mims was still fourth in WR snaps behind Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Lil ‘Jordan Humphrey.
Sutton has reclaimed his rightful spot atop the Broncos’ WR depth chart. 10-plus targets in back-to-back games.
Franklin was back to relevance without Bryant going six for 85 and 1 TD on six targets. Still, the usage has declined with Humphrey seizing a notable number of routes (second among Broncos WRs).
If Bryant misses another week (hamstring injury not viewed as long-term, Franklin can be a WR3/FLEX play versus the pass-funnel Jaguars defense.
He’s scored five TDs in the last eight games—8-plus targets in five of eight, but just three games with more than 40 receiving yards.
RJ Harvey suffered a rib injury late in the fourth quarter, putting his status in question for Week 16. Also lost a fumble. If Harvey can’t go, Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie figure to split touches in the Broncos’ backfield. McLaughlin is likely to see more base work and red-zone usage with Badie working more as a pass-catcher on long down and distance.
Harvey might also be a landmine play this week if he is less than 100%. Jaguars are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
Schedule:
| Week 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 17 | at Chiefs |
| Week 18 | Los Angeles Chargers |
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown recorded 13 receptions on 18 targets for 163 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams.
St. Brown was particularly effective against zone coverage, catching 12 receptions on 15 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown while registering at least one reception against seven different Rams defenders. Against Josh Wallace specifically, he was targeted 6 times across 15 matchups, finishing with four receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown (Next Gen Stats).
Jameson Williams also stayed on his heater: 7-134-1 on nine targets.
David Montgomery scored from a direct snap, adding to his seven carries for 32 yards. But he only played 28% of the snaps (lowest rate of the season). He has not cracked north of 10 opportunities in the last five games.
It’s been inconsistent in recent weeks (15-plus opps in just two of last seven games), but the Lions’ slight offensive regression in 2025 is hurting Monty (especially with OL injuries). And like I said before…just a clear RB2 behind Gibbs in the pecking order of who the Lions need to feature on offense. Monty is also still game script-dependent. The Lions’ interior offensive line remains a major weakness.
However, the Steelers at home represent a bounce-back spot for the Lions’ rushing attack.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been on a funny trend. In every other game starting in Week 7, Gibbs has finished as a top-3 fantasy RB. The Lions’ superstar RB played a season-high 80% snaps in Week 15.
The Lions have a good schedule ROS for QBs. Their last outdoor game was at Philly in Week 11. Other than that, they are playing indoors until Week 18. You need at least one Lion (hopefully Jamo) on your roster ROS.
The defense projects to be in even more shootouts after CB Amik Robertson also got hurt. Safety Kerby Joseph is expected to return soon.
Shane Zylstra was the TE1 for the Lions, playing ahead of Anthony Firsker.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| Week 17 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 18 | at Chicago Bears |
Green Bay Packers
Add Jayden Reed & Romeo Doubs
Josh Wyhle left the game with a concussion. Christian Watson also left the game with a shoulder injury. Later ruled out with a chest injury that had to be addressed at a nearby hospital.
Without Watson, the Packers deployed 12 personnel on 25.4% of offensive plays (16 of 63) against the Broncos, averaging a season-high 9.4 yards per play.
Green Bay accumulated 150 total yards from this formation, including Josh Jacobs‘ 40-yard touchdown rush. Tight ends were heavily involved in the passing game, with Luke Musgrave catching 4 of 6 targets for 52 yards and John FitzPatrick securing 3 of 4 targets for 18 yards, representing season-high target totals for both players (Next Gen Stats).
FitzPatrick played the most snaps (70%).
Musgrave tied Jayden Reed with six targets to lead the Packers. Matthew Golden tied Reed with 55 yards to lead the Packers. A lot of the rookie’s production came AFTER Watson’s injury.
Doubs is the only Packers WR we can expect to see a production boost with Watson out, as Wicks/Golden figure to eat into each other’s roles.
Since Watson returned, Romeo Doubs has seen his production nose-dive. One game with more than 55 yards in his last eight played. Zero catches in Week 14 (two targets).
The biggest injury news is that GB lost EDGE rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL. Brutal loss for a Super Bowl contender.
Green Bay also lost OT Zach Tom to a knee injury. Per Next Gen Stats, Jordan Love faced pressure on 52.2% of his dropbacks against the Broncos, the highest pressure rate of his career as a starter. He was effective against pressure in the first half, completing 8 of 11 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown while not taking a single sack. In the second half, he completed just 2 of 8 attempts under pressure for 28 yards and an interception, taking three sacks on 12 pressured dropbacks. His 147 passing yards when facing pressure were a career-high.
CB Nate Hobbs and LB Quay Walker also got nicked up in this game.
Without Parsons, this Packers’ secondary and defense are going to get exposed if the pass rush doesn’t hit home.
Christian Watson led the Packers with 89 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns on four receptions in a win over the Bears. Watson became just the fourth player in Packers history with 5+ receiving touchdowns in at least three of his first four career seasons, joining Hall of Famer Don Hutson (4 of 4), Antonio Freeman (3 of 4), and Max McGee (3 of 4). This marks the first time in Watson’s career that he has recorded 80+ receiving yards in back-to-back games (Next Gen Stats).
He has now recorded five touchdowns over the past four games. Against man coverage, Watson caught all three targets for 72 yards and both touchdowns. He now has four touchdowns against man coverage this season, tied for the 4th-most among wide receivers despite playing in just seven games.
Watson has been running RED HOT. WR16 in PPG since Week 8. However, he is performing well above expectations as the WR41 in XPPG. Again, just four targets in Week 14 with Reed back in the fold.
Eventually, the lack of true WR1 usage will burn Watson – and that’s very much a possibility against the tough Broncos’ defense in Week 15.
Jordan Love threw for 234 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in the Packers’ Week 14 victory over the Bears. Love now leads the NFL in EPA per dropback on the season (+0.22) according to Next Gen Stats. Love was excellent against the blitz, completing 8 of 11 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns, recording a season-high 63.6% success rate vs the blitz. The Packers’ skill position players helped keep Love clean in protection against extra pass rushers, allowing zero pressures across 13 combined pass blocks. The Packers were able to exploit the Bears’ back end of their secondary, as all three of their safeties allowed a touchdown in coverage, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson allowed all 8 of his targets to be completed for 97 yards (Next Gen Stats).
Jayden Reed also made his return to the lineup, and immediately, he was thrust into action – 4 for 4 with 31 receiving yards, with two carries for 22 yards. He only played 47% of the snaps (Packers WR3), but his 65% route participation is pretty typical of his deployment in this offense. Possibly, the usage and playing time tick up after his first game action since his injury in Week 2.
Dontayvion Wicks also played just six offensive snaps as he is dealing with another ankle injury. Matthew Golden played just five after missing the last few games.
And since Christian Watson returned, Romeo Doubs has seen his production nose-dive. One game with more than 55 yards in his last seven played. Zero catches in Week 14 (two targets).
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Chicago Bears |
| Week 17 | Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 18 | at Minnesota Vikings |
Houston Texans
Add Jawhar Jordan & C.J. Stroud
Woody Marks left the Texans’ game with an ankle injury (not before scoring on a fumble in the end zone at least). With Nick Chubb already out, the Texans’ backfield was led by Jawhar Jordan, who rushed for 101 yards on 15 carries against the Cardinals in his NFL debut.
Jordan gained 80 yards after contact, the 2nd-most by a Texans rusher this season, while forcing seven missed tackles, tied for the most among Texans rushers this season. He was particularly effective on outside runs, rushing for 84 yards across eight carries. Jordan also contributed in the passing game, catching two receptions for 17 yards, totaling 118 yards from scrimmage in his pro debut (Next Gen Stats).
DeMeco Ryans said later that Marks could have gone back into the game, making Jordan a fringy bet with Marks and/or Chubb also re-joining the backfield in Week 16. Still, Jordan is worth the add in case those guys aren’t as healthy as the coaches are leading us to believe.
Also, can’t ignore that it took one game for Jordan to hit 100 yards – something Marks has not done all season. Concerned that bell cow Woody might not reappear this season. Also, the Texans were back to their red-zone shenanigans, giving two GL carries to Dare Ogunbowale.
Nico Collins recorded three receptions on four targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns, with all of his production coming on in-breaking routes.
Collins accumulated his most yards and touchdowns on in-breaking routes this season while gaining 54 yards after the catch, also a season high. His performance was highlighted by a 57-yard touchdown on the second play of the game, where he gained 45 yards after the catch, the most he has gained on a single reception in his career (NGS).
Dalton Schultz was solid (8-76-1) on a team-high nine targets. Nobody else saw more than four targets.
Nothing new with usage for the Texans’ WRs.
The Texans DST/Kicker has the No. 1 schedule in the remainder of the fantasy postseason: the Raiders and the Chargers.
However, it is conversely bad for QBs (bottom-3) and WRs (bottom-10) with the Bolts matchup. Add C.J. Stroud on waivers for this week, but prepare for contingency plans in Week 17.
In four of the last six games Stroud started and finished, he threw for at least 230 yards.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 17 | at the Los Angeles Chargers |
| Week 18 | Indianapolis Colts |
Indianapolis Colts
Sell Alec Pierce | Hold Michael Pittman Jr. & Tyler Warren | Add Ameer Abdullah
The 44-year-old Philip Rivers completed 18 of his 26 attempts for 120 yards and a TD in his first game since the 2020 season.
Rivers completed just 2 of his eight attempts over 10 air yards for 33 yards and an interception, compared to 16 of 18 attempts for 87 yards and a touchdown on underneath passes (Next Gen Stats) basically, pretty much what we expected to see from a QB that hadn’t played football in five years.
Rivers peppered his RBs for a combined nine targets – with Ameer Abdullah hauling in five for 32 yards (lead team in catches/yards).
Jonathan Taylor also had 25 carries for 87 yards, but just didn’t rip off any big plays or score. But he got fed 28 touches.
Tyler Warren led the team in targets (6) – so give credit to Welsh this week for projecting the rookie TE to be heavily involved. However,…only three catches for 19 yards.
Again, this was a tough matchup, even if Daniel Jones started this game, so I wouldn’t completely write off the entire Colts’ offense other than Alec Pierce.
The next two matchups are at home against weaker pass defenses.
Michael Pittman Jr. is within striking distance of 1,000 yards (contract incentive). Hasn’t hit 1K in the last two seasons.
Pittman was second on the Colts in targets (4) in the first half (26 yards).
Bernhard Raimann left the game with an elbow injury. OT Braeden Smith was already out in this game versus the Seahawks.
Anthony Richardson‘s eye has also been cleared, so there’s a chance he makes a spot start down the line. Rivers will start in Week 16.
Schedule
| Week 16 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Week 18 | at Houston Texans |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Drop Bhayshul Tuten | Add LeQuint Allen
Travis Etienne Jr. caught all three of his targets for 73 yards and three touchdowns in the Jaguars’ Week 15 win, recording all three scores against the coverage of Quincy Williams.
He was the first player to score three touchdowns on three targets since at least 2016, and the second player in that timeframe (Samaje Perine, Week 11, 2022) with three or more touchdown receptions from backfield alignment. Etienne caught two of his touchdown passes on targets beyond the line of scrimmage after entering the game with just one such touchdown reception in his career (Next Gen Stats).
Bhayshul Tuten also scored a receiving TD. However, it was reported on Monday that he will undergo finger surgery. Considering he already has a bit of a fumbling problem, this will cause him to miss the next few weeks. Drop him. LeQuint Allen is now the de facto handcuff for ETN.
Trevor Lawrence completed 20 of his 32 passes for 330 yards and five touchdowns, adding 51 rushing yards and another TD on the ground, becoming the first player in NFL history with 5+ pass TD, 1+ rush TD, and 50+ rush yards in a single game.
Lawrence was at his best, targeting the intermediate area of the field, completing 9 of his 12 attempts between 10 and 19 air yards for 144 yards and three touchdowns. Lawrence is one of just two quarterbacks to record a perfect passer rating (158.3) on such throws in a game this season (Justin Herbert in Week 1 vs KC).
Jakobi Meyers led the team with eight targets, going 5-71 (22% target share). Remains the target leader for the Jags.
Brian Thomas Jr. also had a productive outing, with 4-66-1 on seven targets (42% air yards share with multiple end-zone targets). BTJ continues to stack strong games back-to-back. Has looked better than in the past weeks, giving fantasy managers some confidence ROS.
However, the upcoming matchup versus Patrick Surtain is worrisome for a player who has shown a very low ceiling with Lawrence.
Parker Washington was efficient with three catches for 53 yards (operated as Jags WR3).
Brenton Strange was limited to just one catch, with the WRs/RBs doing the majority of damage (four targets). Saw two RZ targets.
All in all, this offense has been clicking over the last month or so.
Trevor Lawrence – last 10 games, one outside the top-15 QBs (@ Houston).
QB3 in PPG (22.3) and 2nd in XPPG. Top-5 PFF grade.
But playing at Denver this week suggests you might want to look elsewhere (last road start versus a tough defense did result in sub-optimal results).
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Denver Broncos |
| Week 17 | at the Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 18 | Tennessee Titans |
Kansas City Chiefs
Sell Kareem Hunt
Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee at the end of the game.
Coach Andy Reid said after Sunday’s 16-13 loss to the Chargers that Mahomes is slated to undergo an MRI on his left knee, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Gardner Minshew is expected to start the rest of the season.
The offensive line took more hits, with Jaylon Moore also suffering a knee injury.
Nick Bolton, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy also got banged up but returned to action. Tyquan Thornton suffered a concussion.
In non-QB-related news, Isiah Pacheco led the backfield (started), not Kareem Hunt. Pacheco carried the ball 11 times for 21 yards to Hunt’s six for 12. Pacheco also earned 5 RZ carries.
Travis Kelce went 7-for-70 on nine targets, while Rashee Rice caught seven balls for 51 yards on a team-high 11 targets.
KC has one of the highest pass rates in the NFL, so I don’t envision them “relying” on a non-existent run game. Unless, of course, they want to make sure Hunt reaches his contract incentives (750 total yards).
Minshew can sling it, so guys like Rice and Kelce should still see enough volume to stay in fantasy lineups. Efficiency and high-end upside are the only concerns. The Chiefs’ OL is a mess, and the next two matchups are against some solid defensive fronts. Titans’ DT, Jeffery Simmons, has played like a man possessed the last few weeks.
Mahomes was under pressure on 48.6% of his dropbacks against the Chargers, his 2nd-highest pressure rate this season.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Titans win outright.
I do have some concerns about KC being checked out after getting knocked out of the postseason, in addition to losing their starting QB. At this point…what is Kelce playing for in what is most likely his last three games in the NFL? Pride is the obvious answer.
FWIW, once Minshew entered the game, he targeted Kelce thrice and Rice once.
I also know that Marquise Brown will try to get back on the field ASAP. He’s very close to several incentives, including TDs, playing time, and receiving yards.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 17 | Denver Broncos |
| Week 18 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
Las Vegas Raiders
Nothing much to report here. Las Vegas scored zero points and posted 75 yards of offense versus the Eagles. The box score doesn’t always tell the whole story…but in this case, it pretty much sums it up.
Kenny Pickett was a downgrade from Geno Smith. Texans up next. Woof. At least there’s a chance that Smith will be able to play.
Ashton Jeanty has been closer to 70% of the snaps the last two weeks, but that might be more related to blowout game scripts.
Rest-of-season fantasy outlook: Still a hold with Jeanty — particularly targeting a Week 17 matchup vs. the Giants, which could deliver a title-winning spike week. But in the short term, expectations should be tempered.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Houston Texans |
| Week 17 | New York Giants |
| Week 18 | Kansas City Chiefs |
Los Angeles Chargers
Drop LAC DST | Hold Keenan Allen & Add Oronde Gadsden & Add Tre Harris
Derwin James was targeted only twice on 38 coverage snaps, allowed zero catches, intercepted a pass, and made a play on the football on both targets against the Chiefs.
James has allowed just 0.6 yards per coverage snap this season, the fewest among defensive backs with 150+ coverage snaps who primarily line up in the slot.
Without Quentin Johnston (inactive), Oronde Gadsden had a bounce-back game. Four catches for 61 yards on six targets. Per NGS…His 43 receptions and 602 receiving yards in 2025 have both established new Chargers rookie tight-end records.
Tre Harris went 3-49 on five targets (injured briefly before returning) while Keenan Allen led the team with eight targets (also fumbled). Harris played the most snaps (85%) and finished second among the WRs in routes run. Add him if you need a streaming WR this week (Dallas matchup).
Allen’s route participation was back down to 61% in Week 15 (tied season low). But whenever he runs a route, he gets the rock. The long-time veteran has reception bonuses at 71 (three away) and 80. Has 68 on the season through 15 weeks. Also has escalators for TDs and yards within striking distance.
Ladd McConkey was an afterthought with just two catches for 20 yards (3 targets).
In the backfield, Kimani Vidal dominated the snaps at 64% over Omarion Hampton (36%). Hampton led the way with 15 carries for 61 yards (including a 26-yard burst). The rookie also played more on third downs than the previous week, and he seized the red-zone work for the second straight game.
I’d expect the team to continue to lean on Hampton in his third game back from IR in Week 16 against Dallas.
He has 15-plus touches in back-to-back games.
In the last two games, the Chargers have a -9% pass rate over expectation. Weeks 1-13: +4%.
If Dallas doesn’t have Quinnen Williams…wheels up for the Chargers’ rushing attack.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 17 | Houston Texans |
| Week 18 | at Denver Broncos |
Los Angeles Rams
Add Colby Parkinson
Matthew Stafford threw for 368 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception in the Rams’ Week 15 win over the Lions. This marked Stafford’s third game with 350+ yards this season, after recording zero such games from 2022-24. It was also his third game with 350+ yards and 2+ touchdown passes this season, the most in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).
Puka Nacua recorded a career-high 181 receiving yards on nine receptions (11 targets) in Week 15.
This marks Nacua’s sixth career game with 160+ receiving yards, tied for the most in the NFL since 2023 with Ja’Marr Chase. It’s his third game with 160+ receiving yards in 2025, the most such games in the NFL this season. Nacua has now posted 165+ receiving yards in back-to-back games, following his 167-yard performance in Week 14 at Arizona.
Colby Parkinson recorded career-highs with five receptions for 75 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15 (7 targets).
The Rams tight end has accumulated six receiving touchdowns over his last six games (Weeks 10-15), tied for the most in the NFL during that span with teammate Davante Adams. Rookie Terrance Ferguson doesn’t show up in the box score, but he had multiple chances to score on his limited targets (three targets). Also ran a season-high in routes (73%).
Davante Adams pulled his hamstring on a deep pass from Matthew Stafford. Been nursing a hammy for a few weeks, and it finally gave out.
Post-game, Head coach Sean McVay said after Sunday’s 41-34 win over the Lions that Adams (hamstring) is unlikely to play Thursday against the Seahawks, though McVay “wouldn’t rule (Adams ) out quite yet,” Stu Jackson of the Rams’ official site reports.
Tutu Atwell was activated off IR for this game. Just two targets, but he will likely see a decent-sized role with Adams sidelined.
As will all three of the Rams TEs. The multi-TE sets originated when Puka Nacua first missed time before the London game…so I’d expect McVay to rely on his heavy sets on a short week. Parkinson is definitely in play from just a sheer scoring perspective.
Recall that Nacua missed the Jags game. Adams scored thrice, and the Rams utilized 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) on 38.7% of their offensive plays in Week 7, the highest usage rate by an offense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Rookie WR Konata Mumpfield also scored in that game and offers similar traits to Adams as a red-zone threat.
Kyren Williams led the Rams with 15 carries, 78 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns in Week 15. Williams joined Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson (4-season streak, 1983-86), Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (3-season streak, 1999-2001), and Steven Jackson (8-season streak, 2005-12) as the only Rams players with 1,000+ rushing yards in 3+ consecutive seasons (Next Gen Stats). Blake Corum was also effective, rushing for 71 yards and one TD on 11 carries. 54% of the snaps for Williams and 46% of the snaps for Corum.
True to his words, Sean McVay is keeping Williams fresh for the postseason by rotating Corum/Williams every other drive.
We have acknowledged that the split between Corum and Williams has been greater this year, but admittedly, it has made Williams a more effective rusher. And this game should be a reminder of the high upside Corum has if Williams actually does get hurt. And in positive game scripts…Corum can be a deep league FLEX option. Seattle, though, is a much tougher draw (although the Lions were also tough on paper).
Kyren Williams rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown across his 12 carries in the Rams’ Week 11 win against the Seahawks. He generated 65 yards after missed tackles and averaged 5.7 yards after contact per carry, both second-most in a game in his career (Next Gen Stats). He also dramatically out-gained Blake Corum (8 for 10 yards), who had two rushes of -3 and -5 yards, but also had 3 GL attempts.
Kyren Williams only had one GL carry. Kyren remains RB1, but Corum will continue to mix in. High-end handcuff option or desperation FLEX. I would make sure to keep Corum on the bench if Williams were on my roster. The schedule is just okay, though, and gets slightly tougher in the fantasy playoffs (DET, SEA) – hence more of a hold than BUY stance.
Tyler Higbee injured his ankle during Sunday’s contest versus the Seahawks, per Stu Jackson of the Rams’ official site. If he is out, we should expect boosted roles for all three of the other LA TEs. The upside play is rookie Terrance Ferguson. Sean McVay loves Ferguson and constantly talks about him as a stud. I’m talking like Kyren Williams‘ levels of love. Ferguson is a talented playmaker. Upside. Bright future, etc.
Colby Parkinson played the most snaps (69%) and scored.
Davante Adams only caught one pass despite eight targets. And of course it was TD. Adams is now ninth in points scored below expectation this season. The TDs have helped him dramatically, but there’s reason to believe he was not at 100% after getting hurt last week. His 51% catch rate is the worst of his NFL career, as his YAC/reception is in the bottom 10.
Adams is definitely starting to show some signs of decline (soon to be 33 years old). I think if you can sell high (emphasis on HIGH) on him after he scored again but remained inefficient, that’s the move to make. But if you can’t get anything in return, I think it’s okay to hold. It’s not as if the TDs will suddenly stop coming. The schedule ROS is bottom-10 for WRs the next three weeks, but average in the postseason.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Seattle Seahawks (TNF) |
| Week 17 | at Atlanta Falcons |
| Week 18 | Arizona Cardinals |
Miami Dolphins
Add Darren Waller
Tua Tagovailoa finished with an average time to throw of 3.36 seconds in Week 15, the first qualified game of his career with a time to throw longer than three seconds.
He completed 4 of 6 attempts on dropbacks over 4 seconds for 60 yards and a touchdown, but his tendency to hold onto the ball led him to face 10 pressures (30.3% pressure rate) and take four sacks. It’s the first time Tagovailoa has faced double-digit pressures in a game since Week 5 (Next Gen Stats).
Two of the passing TDs went to Darren Waller, who erupted in the second half with the Steelers playing more off coverage. The big-bodied TE caught 7 of 8 targets (29% target share) for 66 yards (also drew another two-point conversion attempt). He played the most TE snaps for Miami (not the case last week).
Add him and play him next versus the Bengals (and the following week versus Tampa Bay).
The schedule: No.1 for TEs rest of the season.
Jaylen Waddle has topped 82 yards in five of his 10 games this season without Hill, averaging nearly seven targets and 68 yards per contest when Hill plays fewer than 50% of snaps or misses entirely (14-game sample size). He should be back on the fantast WR2 radar versus the Bengals (although they have been stingy versus No. 1 WRs this season).
The lack of passing volume (and the addition of Waller) has hurt Waddle, given that he has been outside the top-45 WRs in two of the last three games. But back at home in Miami for Week 16, the alternatives would have to be terrific to outright bench Waddle.
Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick also suffered an injury. Ollie Gordon also got hurt.
Schedule:
| Week 16 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Week 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Week 18 | at New England Patriots |
Minnesota Vikings
Add J.J. McCarthy
Justin Jefferson caught 2 of nine targets for 22 yards in the Vikings’ Week 15 win over the Cowboys, marking the third straight game he has failed to reach 30 receiving yards. Jefferson matched up against Shavon Revel Jr. 10 times and against DaRon Bland 9 times. He was targeted 3 times against each cornerback, recording one catch for 10 yards versus Revel and one catch for 12 yards versus Bland (Next Gen Stats).
The Vikings tried multiple times to get Jefferson a TD – but they failed to convert in the end zone (four targets). Jettas did score a 3-yard TD, but it was called back on an illegal formation penalty.
Jefferson has plummeted to the WR2 range in the rankings (if not lower). Zero top-8 finishes this season—zero 20-point games. The “upside” has not been there for Jefferson this season. The hope was that the schedule could boost his production, but that has not been the case despite his QB playing better.
Even with good matchups coming up, Jefferson seems more like a WR3/FLEX play based on how bad he has performed with his second-year QB (that is essentially playing like a rookie QB).
J.J. McCarthy completed 15 of his 24 pass attempts for a career-high 250 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the Vikings’ Week 15 win against the Cowboys.
McCarthy was pressured on just 22.2% of his dropbacks, his 2nd-lowest pressure rate faced in a game this season. He was particularly efficient when targeting out-breaking routes, completing 7 of 8 such attempts for 86 yards and both of his touchdowns (Next Gen Stats).
McCarthy threw a pair of TDs to Jalen Nailor – somebody he has flashed chemistry with all season. Jordan Addison caught a deep pass to finish with two catches for 66 yards.
T.J. Hockenson also had 66 yards on a team-high four receptions. Josh Oliver is two TDs away from a contract bonus.
That’s why the Jefferson numbers are just so bizarre. It’s not like McCarthy hasn’t shown the ability to support fantasy-viable weeks….they just haven’t been for Jefferson.
OT Brian O’Neill (ankle) was questionable to return to Sunday night’s contest against the Cowboys (going to have an MRI on his foot). Christian Darrisaw was already out.
The Vikings’ defense also took on some injuries between DL Jonathan Greenard and DT Javon Hargrave. Greenard is undergoing season-ending surgery. Hargrave has a groin injury.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at New York Giants |
| Week 17 | Detroit Lions |
| Week 18 | Green Bay Packers |
New England Patriots
Hold TreVeyon Henderson & Stefon Diggs | Add Kayshon Boutte | Add Hunter Henry | Add Andres Borregales
TreVeyon Henderson rushed for a career-high 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against the Bills in Week 15 (+105 RYOE).
Henderson was particularly effective out of jumbo formations (6+ OL), where he accumulated 122 yards and both touchdowns on eight carries, the 2nd-most rushing yards by a running back out of jumbo since 2016.
Per Next Gen Stats, Henderson is the 2nd player in NFL history with multiple career games with 2+ rushing touchdowns of 50+ yards (Chris Johnson is the other). His four touchdown runs of 50+ yards are tied for the most by a rookie since at least 1925, and are already the Patriots’ franchise record.
Hendo played 48% of the snaps to Rhamondre Stevenson‘s 67%. But the touches were 16 to 9.
The days of Henderson seeing 90-plus percent of the work are over with Stevenson back in the fold. However, the rookie RB still benefits from great matchups ROS – so I think his fantasy value should be solid. He is seeing enough work to be a fringe fantasy RB1.
For the rest of the fantasy playoffs, the Pats have Ravens/Jets. The Patriots have the 1 schedule ROS for RBs.
Stefon Diggs played just 50% of the snaps. Ever since it was reported that Diggs was playing with a fractured finger, his production has tailed off (along with his usage).
With Kayshon Boutte back, Diggs just isn’t running enough routes to be an automatic start.
However, Maye still knows he is the No.1 guy. And Diggs wants to get paid. He has contract incentives for 70 catches and 1,000-plus yards.
Kayshon Boutte led the team in routes run (caught his lone target for 30 yards).
Mack Hollins played the most snaps and was the target leader (8, 101 incomplete air yards). One catch away from his 40-catch incentive.
Hunter Henry got erased in a terrible matchup but should rebound next week. Has contract incentives for 50, 55, 60, and 65 receptions.
Teams have been throwing on the Ravens as of late – nearly 40 pass attempts per game – with their run defense not being nearly as much of a sieve as it was to start the season.
The Pats also have one of the best schedules ROS for kickers. Add kicker Andres Borregales.
Also, as a defensive note, LB Robert Spillane did not play a single snap despite being active. The team is still at least one more week away from seeing DT Milton Williams return.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 17 | at New York Jets |
| Week 18 | Miami Dolphins |
New Orleans Saints
Add Audric Estime & Tyler Shough & Saints DST & Saints Kicker
Tyler Shough completed 24 of 32 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown in the Saints’ win over the Panthers.
Shough had 162 of his yards (and his lone touchdown) come in the fourth quarter, leading the Saints from a 10-point deficit to victory. Targeting the seams, Shough completed all 17 of his pass attempts for 180 yards and a score, one of six quarterbacks this season to complete every pass to the seams (min. 10 attempts) with the highest completion percentage over expected (+27.0%). When blitzed, Shough completed 10 of 11 for 110 yards and a touchdown. Shough also gained 32 rushing yards on eight carries, including a 4-yard QB draw that drew an unnecessary roughness penalty to set up the game-winning field goal (Next Gen Stats).
With the rushing holding – six carries or more in the last four games – Shough is a viable option for QB-needy teams in Week 16 versus the Jets (and beyond if need be, given the easy SOS for the Saints QB).
Chris Olave caught six of his nine targets for 85 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. Through three quarters, Olave had only been targeted twice, catching one for seven yards. But on the Saints’ final two drives, he caught five of his six targets for 78 yards and the game-tying touchdown, a 12-yard slant route against Jaycee Horn. Olave’s 15-yard reception with 24 seconds left set up a Tyler Shough QB draw that drew the unnecessary roughness penalty that put the Saints in position to kick the game-winning field goal (Next Gen Stats).
Devin Neal left the game versus the Panthers due to a hamstring injury. He did not play in the second half. Evan Hull led the backfield with three carries in the second half, but Audric Estime also sprinkled in one carry with three receptions. Estime ended out-touching Hull while edging him out in total snaps (36% versus 32%).
ROS schedule. Great overall, and top 10 for RBs in the playoffs: Jets/Titans Weeks 16-17.
Hence why it’s important to target the right Saints RB off waivers if Neal is out (and Alvin Kamara remains sidelined).
I’ve been an Estime-stan since he came out of Notre Dame – and the advantage in touches/snaps has me leaning toward him as my waiver wire target. He played 45% of the third-down snaps, which suggests he should remain involved in the passing game. Estime is also the more physically imposing back, measuring at 5-foot-11 and 227 pounds.
Devaughn Vele (shoulder) had his left arm in a sling after Sunday’s 20-17 win over the Panthers, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.
Juwan Johnson finished with four catches for 30 yards. But more importantly, he got closer to his 70-catch contract incentive. Also has ones for 700 and 800 yards.
Cesar Ruiz (ankle) was also questionable to return to New Orleans’ matchup versus the Panthers on Sunday.
The Saints have the No. 1 schedule ROS for RBs.
Also, their DST schedule is fantastic: Jets, Titans, etc.
Schedule
| Week 16 | New York Jets |
| Week 17 | at Tennessee Titans |
| Week 18 | at Atlanta Falcons |
New York Giants
Add Theo Johnson & Giants DST
Jaxson Dart was again checked on the sideline for an injury, but he returned to the game. Dart went 20 for 36 for 245 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on Sunday.
During the first half, Dart completed just 7 of his 16 passes for 71 yards and an interception. In the second half, he went 13 for 20 for 175 yards and two scores. Despite completing less than half of his passes against man coverage (7 of 16), Dart threw for 100 yards and both touchdowns when the defense went man-to-man. Dart also gained 63 rushing yards on nine carries, his second-highest rushing total this season (Next Gen Stats).
Note that Dart scrambled 6 times for 60 yards, the most rushing yards in a single game of his career. However, his designed rush usage remained limited in Week 15 after recording zero designed rushes in Week 14 following his return from a concussion. This week, Dart logged just three designed carries and gained only 3 yards. Over the last two games, he has totaled just three designed rushes for 3 yards after leading all quarterbacks from Weeks 4-10 in designed carries (24), yards (134), and rushing touchdowns (6).
Tyrone Tracy was the RB1, playing 76% of the snaps. 15 carries for 70 yards and 1 TD. Also caught three passes for 27 yards and 1 TD.
Darius Slayton did get banged up toward the end of the contest. The Giants’ serious threat tied Wan’Dale Robinson for a team-high 10 targets, going 4 for 53 yards. But it could have been an even bigger day, given he commanded 121 incomplete air yards.
Robinson went 5-54-1.
Theo Johnson led the team with 72 receiving yards (three catches for four yards).
Schedule
| Week 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| Week 17 | at Las Vegas Raiders |
| Week 18 | Dallas Cowboys |
New York Jets
Sell Breece Hall
Adonai Mitchell matched up against Greg Newsome II 8 times in Week 15, catching 4 of his five targets for 32 yards and a TD. Mitchell caught just 2 of his four other targets for 25 yards when matched up against anyone else, including an interception by Montaric Brown. Newsome allowed six receptions for 45 yards and a TD on seven targets across his 25 coverage snaps and was the only Jets defender to concede more than three receptions (Next Gen Stats).
AD Mitchell finished the game with a 27% target share.
Isaiah Williams (someone who has been involved in the last two games) caught six balls for 53 yards on seven targets. He also had another punt return TD called back on a flag.
John Metchie went 4 for 25. But he ran fewer routes than Williams
Breece Hall felt like a landmine this week – and he blew up for fantasy managers in all the wrong ways. 12 for 23 yards and just two catches for 14 yards.
Isaiah Davis was the better Jets RB, rushing for 58 yards on nine carries (24-yard long). The long TD was somewhat stinky in garbage time, but he was involved through the first half with Hall.
The Jets RB1 feels so tough to trust, even with a good matchup next week—impending free agent in a lost season.
The Jets lost two safeties – Tony Adams and Isaiah Oliver – in a loss versus the Jaguars.
DC Steve Wilks was also fired. Somebody had to go with New York, still looking for their first interception OF THE SEASON.
Last FIVE RBs to face the Jets:
- Achane – RB8
- Bijan – RB1
- Henry – RB4
- Henderson – RB3
- Etienne – RB2
HC Aaron Glenn also left the door open for a Garrett Wilson return update. Stay tuned.
And TBD on which QB will play for New York in Week 15. It could be Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields, or Brady Cook. We will all find out together.
Proceed with caution with the Jets on the road next week.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at New Orleans Saints |
| Week 17 | New England Patriots |
| Week 18 | at Buffalo Bills |
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy DeVonta Smith | Sell Dallas Goedert
The Eagles allowed the fewest yards by any defense this season (75) against the Raiders on Sunday, including an average of just 1.0 yards per dropback. On first downs, the Eagles allowed a success rate of just 13.3%, the 4th-lowest among defenses this season. They ceded just one explosive play for the duration of the game, the fourth time this season an offense has been held to one or fewer explosive plays. The Eagles also did not miss a tackle, the first such game by any defense this season. Brandon Graham earned his first two sacks of the season on just seven pass rushes, and Quinyon Mitchell notched his seventh game allowing 10 or fewer yards in coverage this season, the most of any cornerback (Next Gen Stats).
With two touchdowns on throws behind the line of scrimmage against the Raiders, Dallas Goedert leads the NFL with five such TDs on just six targets (Next Gen Stats). Goedert is tied for the 156th-most yards behind the line of scrimmage (22). Great matchup on deck versus the Commanders. He led the Eagles with seven targets, with no one else having more than 2. But be sure to have an alternative plan for the Bills’ Week 17 matchup (no-fly zone for TEs).
Against the Commanders – in a more back-and-forth contest – I’d anticipate the Eagles WRs to see more volume. Again, the backups were in the game at the start of the fourth quarter.
I still think Smith can finish the season on a high note. Great schedule for WRs rest of season – specifically to slot WRs. The two remaining defenses that Philly faces rank inside the top-8 in fantasy points allowed to WRs, going to slot WRs.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Washington Commanders |
| Week 17 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Week 18 | Washington Commanders |
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Aaron Rodgers | Sell Jaylen Warren | Hold DK Metcalf
Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 27 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns in the Steelers’ Week 15 win.
He finished 17 for 18 for 173 yards and both scores on throws between the numbers, recording a 94.4% completion percentage, his highest in a game since Week 14, 2016. All three of Rodgers’ completions longer than 10 air yards on the night were between the numbers. Rodgers finished with a 2.32-second time to throw, the 7th-fastest by any quarterback in a game this season and the 3rd-fastest by Rodgers himself (NGS).
Kenneth Gainwell led the backfield with 13 carries for 80 yards, while Jaylen Warren was inefficient on his 12 carries for 33 yards (also had three receptions and two GL carries). Warren was added to the injury report before the game, so it’s possible he was less than 100%. However, he was still returning kicks, which was somewhat puzzling usage.
He also had a big chunk gain of 24 yards wiped off on a holding call.
Gainwell led with a 52% snap share and commanded a team-high seven targets (caught all of them for 46 yards).
Second week in a row, they split touches close to 50/50.
And admittedly, the playoff matchups aren’t good (bottom-of-the-barrel for RBs), so anticipate this production to fall off for the Steelers RBs.
Weeks 16-17 are the worst matchups for RBs. If this stays a committee between Warren and Gainwell, it could be brutal for all parties.
DK Metcalf rolled over a strong Week 15 with a solid output in Week 16: 3-55-1 on three targets. About time for Metcalf to show up, given the schedule has been great for him. Keep starting him with the Lions up next.
Through Weeks 16-17 (Fantasy Playoffs): Lions/Browns — the No. 1 WR schedule per FantasyPros’ SOS tool.
Seemingly so, a healthy Rodgers is boosting Metcalf’s fantasy output.
As long as this downfield usage holds (been hit-or-miss most of this season), Metcalf can be “trusted” in some solid matchups.
Darnell Washington also cleared concussion protocol and played his normal role (led the Steelers in snaps played at 73%).
OG Issac Seumalo also got banged up again and did not return. LB Nick Herbig also suffered a hamstring injury.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Detroit Lions |
| Week 17 | at Cleveland Browns |
| Week 18 | Baltimore Ravens |
San Francisco 49ers
Add Brian Robinson Jr., 49ers DST & Ricky Pearsall
George Kittle caught eight of his nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown in the 49ers’ Week 15 win over the Titans. He recorded 78 yards after the catch, his most in a game this season. Entering Week 15, Kittle had averaged just 4.0 yards after catch per reception, the lowest mark of his career (Next Gen Stats).
Ricky Pearsall limped off the field after the first catch of the game, but did return to game action. And he had one of his best games since the start of the season (6-96 on nine targets as two drew defensive flags). Impressive outing for Slick Rick, as he only played 58% of the snaps. Drew a target on 30% of his routes run.
Very much in the starting conversation next week, with the upside to finish as a top-24 option based on the volume he saw in Week 15. Alas, the injury must be monitored as Pearsall did not finish the game because of the ankle injury. I would expect him to be limited this week with the news that he reaggravated his PCL injury. If he can’t go, Demarcus Robinson would be the next man up.
Jauan Jennings stole the show in the box score, catching two TDs from Brock Purdy.
Christian McCaffery had just one target. He was also on the injury report with a back this week. Please just keep Brian Robinson Jr. on your bench.
The playoff schedule is fantastic for the 49ers… so hold guys, or add them if they get dropped, i.e., Ricky Pearsall.
Note that Brandon Aiyuk will not return this season.
However, the 49ers are expected to get back some defensive depth between DT Sam Okuayinonu, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, LB Tatum Bethune, and DT Jordan Elliott.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Week 17 | Chicago Bears |
| Week 18 | Seattle Seahawks |
Seattle Seahawks
Add Rashid Shaheed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught seven of his nine targets for 114 yards in Week 15 against the Colts, recording 68 of his yards after the catch (+17 YAC over expected).
JSN now has 502 YAC this season, 3rd-most among wide receivers entering Sunday Night Football. Smith-Njigba was also effective on downfield targets, catching three of his four targets over 10 air yards for 86 yards, giving him a league-leading 1,105 downfield receiving yards on the season.
Seattle couldn’t run the ball at all (the theme of most of his season) despite the Colts still not having DeForest Buckner back in the lineup. Zach Charbonnet out-snapped Kenneth Walker 55% to 42%.
Last four weeks, touches have been 52-38 in favor of KW3. Walker has 13-plus opportunities in seven of his last eight games, compared to Charbonnet’s four.
But if Sam Darnold continues to play this poorly, no run game is going to take off in Seattle—tough matchup at home versus the Rams on Thursday night.
Worth noting that Darnold is closing on some incentives – 28 passing TDs and 4,000 passing yards – for an extra $1M.
Rashid Shaheed came up big on the final drive to put Seattle in FG range. Finished with five catches for 76 yards. Highest route participation since joining Seattle (81%).
Back-to-back games with four catches and at least 67 yards.
AJ Barner had six targets (did have a monster game in the first matchup versus LA this season).
LB Derick Hall (hand) is questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Colts. OT Abraham Lucas also got banged up but did return to the game. OT Charles Cross is also battling through a hamstring injury. Not ideal on a short week.
In the Seahawks’ Week 11 loss to the Rams, quarterback Sam Darnold finished with zero touchdowns and four interceptions for the third time in his career (also Week 7, 2019, and Week 9, 2018). Darnold is the only quarterback to have multiple games of zero touchdowns and four-plus interceptions since entering the NFL in 2018. There have been only 10 other instances across the league during that span. Darnold completed 29 of 44 attempts for 279 yards, but threw four interceptions in the Seahawks’ loss to the Rams. All four of Darnold’s interceptions came while he stood in the pocket with a time to throw over 2.5 seconds, completing only 9 of 18 such throws for 68 yards. On throws over 10 air yards, Darnold threw just three completions on 12 attempts for 61 yards and three of his four interceptions. He was also 6 of 13 for 43 yards and two interceptions under pressure (13 pressures, zero sacks) according to Next Gen Stats.
OL Grey Zabel suffered a knee injury in Sunday’s 21-19 loss to the Rams, John Boyle of the Seahawks’ official site reports. This is the second OL injury Seattle has had in the last two weeks. Initial reports on Zabel’s knee have been positive.
Kenneth Walker had another 15-yard TD called back on holding. He led the backfield with 51% of the snaps to Zach Charbonnet‘s 43%. Out-touched him 19-13. However, it was 8-6 in the first half in favor of Charbs. Don’t think anything has really changed how we view this split backfield. KW3 just ripped off more explosive runs (18, 23, and 25 yards) as we know he is capable of doing. He also had a GL carry, but so did Charbonnet. Walker has 13-plus opportunities in four straight games to Charbonnet’s three.
Rashid Shaheed only played 54% of the snaps while running a route on 73% of the dropbacks. He had three targets of 10-plus air yards and an end-zone target, but was lackluster in the final box score—56 incomplete air yards. Usage is still trending in the right direction for Shaheed. Buy low.
AJ Barner had a monster game: 10 catches for 70 yards on 11 targets. Played 87% of the snaps and saw a season-high in route participation (80%). Add him if you are hurting at tight end. He is PFF’s 11th-highest graded tight end this season – and has tush push goal-line TD appeal.
Note that Shaheed will be facing the Rams for the third time (once with the Saints before the trade to Seattle).
Schedule
| Week 16 | Los Angeles Rams (TNF) |
| Week 17 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 18 | at the San Francisco 49ers |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Chris Godwin
Mike Evans caught six receptions for 132 yards on 12 targets in Week 15 in his first game back from a collarbone injury.
When matched up against Cobee Bryant (who replaced the injured Mike Hughes early in the game), Evans hauled in four receptions for 102 yards on five targets, the fifth-most yards a wide receiver has gained in a coverage matchup this season (Next Gen Stats). Evans generated all his production on targets outside the numbers, with all six receptions and 132 yards coming in that area of the field.
Per Next Gen Stats, pre-game reports indicated Evans would play a limited amount of snaps, and that proved true as he was on the field for just 50.8% of offensive plays. However, he still led the team in targets (12), receptions (6), and receiving yards (132) to finish with 19.2 PPR points. He also ran 72% of the routes (second-most on the Bucs among WRs).
Every one of his catches came on targets outside the numbers, and he took full advantage of a soft matchup against Falcons’ corner Cobee Bryant after Mike Hughes exited in the first quarter and did not return. Across eight matchups against Bryant, Evans caught 4 of 6 targets for 102 yards.
Emeka Egbuka did not have a major bounce-back game…but he was better—four catches for 64 yards on nine targets (two negated by flags). However, what’s more concerning is his usage nose-dived. Season-low in route participation (64%) as the Buccaneers rotated their WRs more.
But the efficiency did boost, given Egbuka has his highest yardage total since Week 10.
Chris Godwin was on his way to being a total bust – but scored (4-20-1 on five targets). He also played the most snaps (95%) and ran the most routes.
Concerning Godwin fantasy managers (even more than Egbuka), despite running the most routes, he was the WR Mayfield looked to the least (13% target rate). Egbuka’s target rate per route run did not change too dramatically. Godwin’s declined dramatically, operating predominantly from the slot.
Jalen McMillan also made his season debut and almost scored (ruled down at the 1-yard line).
Tight end Cade Otton did not play.
Bucky Irving was highly efficient (16 carries for 60 yards), but he was vultured at the goal line by Sean Tucker (one of his three goal-line carries). Irving played 55% of the snaps. He has hovered in this snap range since returning from injury, seizing 18-19 opportunities per game.
Zyon McCollum left Thursday night’s matchup with the Falcons due to a hip injury. They were already without Benjamin Morrison and Tykee Smith in their secondary, which didn’t help them stop the Falcons’ passing attack.
Schedule
| Week 16 | at Carolina Panthers |
| Week 17 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Week 18 | Carolina Panthers |
Tennessee Titans
Add Gunnar Helm
Tony Pollard continued his hot streak with another 104 yards and 1 TD on 14 carries. The backfield is clearly shifting toward Pollard.
And this man has some contract incentives within reach to round out the season–1,110 yards and 7 TDs are well within reach.
Against a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs team that just got knocked out of the playoffs…I think Pollard might be a sneaky start in Week 16 (bold). Pollard is averaging 20 touches per game over the last two weeks (fantasy RB1 in back-to-back weeks).
Chimere Dike finished second on the team in targets again (five) with two red-zone targets.
Gunnar Helm also bounced back with a long TD from Cam Ward (34 yards), ending the day with a team-high 49 yards on four receptions (two RZ targets).
The high-volume rushing attack also nuked Gunnar Helm‘s routes last week, so I expected a rebound in Week 15. Helm has been consistently leading the team in catches. A DBro favorite, the former Texas TE has been carving out a nice role in the Titans’ offense.
Although, to be fair, he did only run 10 routes compared to Chig Okonkwo‘s 17 routes (the veteran TE also drew six targets and one EZ target).
The Titans lost three safeties – Mike Brown, Xavier Woods, and Kevin Winston Jr. – versus the 49ers. Van Jefferson had to leave Sunday’s game with a back injury.
OG Kevin Zeitler (groin) was ruled questionable to return to Sunday’s matchup versus San Francisco.
LB Cedric Gray also went down with an injury (led team in tackles). CB Jalyn Armour-Davis also got hurt.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Week 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| Week 18 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
Washington Commanders
Add Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Sit Deebo Samuel
Marcus Mariota was aggressive, pushing the ball downfield in the Commanders’ Week 15 victory over the Giants, averaging 14.2 air yards per attempt, the 4th-most by any quarterback in a game this season. Mariota had almost all of his production come on downfield passes, completing 7 of 11 passes for 181 yards and a TD on throws over 10 air yards. That downfield passing was buoyed by a heavy dose of play action, which Mariota used on 46.2% of his dropbacks, his 2nd-highest rate in a game this season. Mariota has thrown for 650 yards on passes over 10 air yards since Week 10, 5th-most in the NFL entering the Week 15 afternoon slate (Next Gen Stats).
Terry McLaurin was on the receiving end of many Mariota deep passes, including one that drew a pass interference flag and another that resulted in a 51-yard TD.
Deebo Samuel was the target leader (6) but caught just three for 43 yards. No other Commanders player saw more than two targets. 1-star matchup in Week 16 versus the Eagles’ no-fly zone. Bench him.
Chris Rodriguez was questionable before the game before being ruled out 90 minutes before kick-off. Jacory Crokey-Merritt stepped in and had a redemption performance. 18-96-1 on 52% of the snaps (also fumbled).
But that might not have been the plan. Jeremy McNichols started this game and was the main guy on the first drive (49% snaps), but he also lost a fumble.
But the rookie shone and made the most of his opportunities after being benched for Rodriguez as the team’s starter.
Per Next Gen Stats, Croskey-Merritt had not seen double-digit carries since Week 10 after Chris Rodriguez took over the Commanders’ backfield, but Rodriguez missed the game with a groin injury. JCM’s rushing splits by direction were stark, as he gained just 12 yards on six carries to the right but exploded for 84 yards and the touchdown on 12 carries to the left.
However, C-Rod being a GTD suggests he has a chance to be back next week. Just something to be aware of. Not sure one performance from JCM will completely supplant C-Rod.
Great schedule ahead for the Commanders RBs as well. Specifically in the fantasy playoffs, the Cowboys are potentially very juicy. The Eagles are not ideal (although not impossible, given the DT Jalen Carter injury).
However, Jayden Daniels will not return this season after being reportedly shut down for the next three weeks.
Commanders lost DT Eddie Goldman and CB Darius Rush. Commanders are very thin in their secondary.
OT Laremy Tunsil, TE Colston Yankoff, and WR Noah Brown also got hurt.
John Bates played the most TE snaps (69%).
Jaylin Lane returned a punt for a 63-yard touchdown in the second quarter against the Giants, his second punt return touchdown of the season after scoring on a 90-yard return in Week 3 against the Raiders. Lane is the first rookie in franchise history with multiple punt returns for touchdowns and the first time by any Washington player since Brian Mitchell in 1994 (Next Gen Stats). Lane also ran the 3rd-most routes.
Schedule
| Week 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Week 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 18 | at Philadelphia Eagles |
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