The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

• NYG -2.5, O/U 47
• Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jaxson Dart (QB)

Since Week 4, Dart has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging 7.4 rushing attempts and 42.1 rushing yards per game. Among 44 qualifying passers, he ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. In his eight games played since Week 4, he has seven rushing touchdowns. Dart should light it up this week. Since Week 10, Washington has fielded a wretched pass defense, giving up the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-most passing yards per game, and the third-highest CPOE. During that span, they have also had the second-lowest pressure rate. Dart should carve this pass defense up downfield. Washington has allowed the third-highest deep ball completion rate and the second-highest passer rating on targets 20 yards or more this season.

Marcus Mariota (QB)

Marcus Mariota will draw the start this week and could be Washington’s starter for the rest of the season. In his six starts this season, he has averaged 5.8 rushing attempts and 35.6 rushing yards with three QB1 outings in weekly scoring (QB6, QB9, QB3). Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 26th in highly accurate throw rate, 29th in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Mariota could be a QB1 again this week against a weak Giants pass defense. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 11th-most passing yards per game.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Tyrone Tracy opened the week with a full practice (hip). Tracy sustained the hip injury in Week 13 and was forced to leave the game, so the full practice to open the week was nice to see. I expect that Tracy will be a full go this week and return to the role we saw him operate in for Week 12. Against the Lions, he played 70.7% of the snaps with 23 touches and 130 total yards. He was the Giants’ clear lead back. Tracy has been a volume play that has lacked efficiency with his 2.7% explosive run rate, his 7% missed tackle rate, and 2.04 yards after contact per attempt. Tracy could easily be an RB2 this week, though, against the Commanders’ Swiss cheese run defense. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Chris Rodriguez is a touchdown-dependent flex again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 11, he has averaged 12.3 touches and 59.3 total yards as Washington’s backfield leader. During that span, he has had 64.2% of the running back red zone carries. Rodriguez has only two targets, one reception, and six receiving yards this season, so if you’re playing him, just understand that he offers nothing through the air. He has been quite good as a rusher, though. Among 57 qualifying rushers, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants remain a horrendous run defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the third-highest missed tackle rate, and the most yards after contact per attempt.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

In his six games played this season, McLaurin has two top 24 weekly finishes (WR8, WR20) with seven red zone targets and seven deep targets. McLaurin has a 19.8% target share with 2.15 yards per route run and a 26.2% first-read share. If Marcus Mariota is looking to stretch the field, McLaurin (13.7 aDOT) should have a strong game this week. New York has allowed the seventh-highest deep ball completion rate, the third-most deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest passer rating to downfield passing. This feels like a nice bounce-back spot for McLaurin. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 23.1% target share, 46.8 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. He has 12 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Samuel could also have a strong day this week against a New York secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Darius Slayton (WR)

Since Week 5, Darius Slayton has had a 13.9% target share with 45.3 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, a 14.5-yard average depth of target, and a 17.5% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data. In those six games, he has had one red-zone target, eight deep targets, and three top-36 finishes in weekly scoring (WR34, WR27, WR19). Slayton is a strong flex play this week against the Commanders. His downfield role should come in handy for Jaxson Dart. Washington has allowed the third-highest completion rate and the second-highest passer rating on deep passes. Since Week 10, Washington has also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is having a wonderful breakout season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.9% target share with 63.7 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. Robinson should have another strong game this week. Since Week 11, Washington has led the NFL in two high rate (70%!). Against two high, Robinson has maintained strong usage with a 25.6% target share, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 32.2% first-read share. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Theo Johnson (TE)

With Jaxson Dart under center, Theo Johnson has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with five top-12 finishes among tight ends in weekly scoring. Since Week 4, Johnson has had a 19.1% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In those 10 games, he has had nine red-zone targets, four deep targets, and five receiving touchdowns. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Washington has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per target, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos

• GB -2.5, O/U 42.5
• Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jordan Love (QB)

Jordan Love is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in three of his last four games (QB2, QB8, QB11). Since Week 11, among 41 qualifying passers, Love has ranked eighth in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, first in passer rating, fifth in catchable target rate, and first in hero throw rate. He has been playing outstanding football. Denver is still an incredibly talented pass defense, but they have shown some give over the last few games. Since Week 10, Denver has ranked 15th in passing yards per game, 19th in EPA per dropback, 15th in pressure rate, and has given up the ninth-highest CPOE. Love could surprise people this week.

Jayden Reed (WR)

Last week, Reed stepped back into the lineup with a 65.4% route share, a 16% target share, 31 receiving yards, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Reed didn’t have a red zone or deep target. Denver hasn’t been a wonderful matchup for slot receivers, but with Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs getting the Patrick Surtain shadow, Reed could be more heavily involved this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bo Nix (QB)

Bo Nix has remained insanely volatile this season as the QB9 in fantasy points per game. His ridiculous outing in Week 7 is covering up a ton of sins for his overall season numbers. Nix hasn’t finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring since Week 8. I will say that his per-dropback numbers since Week 9 have been surprising. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, while he has ranked 31st in yards per attempt and 31st in passer rating, Nix has also ranked 12th in highly accurate throw rate, eighth in catchable target rate, and 15th in hero throw rate. Nix is best viewed as a QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has remained a strong pass defense, allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game, the 14th-lowest passer rating, the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback, and logging the sixth-highest pressure rate.

RJ Harvey (RB)

Since assuming the starting job, Harvey has averaged 17.7 touches and 70.7 total yards with weekly finishes as the RB37, RB4, and RB2 in weekly scoring. Last week, he set season-highs with a 68.1% snap rate, a 48.8% route share, and a 15.8% target share. Since Week 11, Harvey has had a 10.7% target share with 24 receiving yards per game and 1.57 yards per route run. Since Week 11, among 45 qualifying backs, Harvey has ranked 32nd in explosive run rate, fifth in rushing success rate, and 15th in missed tackle rate. The Packers remain a hellacious defense to face for running backs. Harvey will need all of the volume and touchdown equity he can get his hands on this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Christian Watson (WR)

Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja’Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Christian Watson has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 61.8 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, and a 28.4% first-read share. In those five games, Watson has had two red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Watson has ranked second on the team with a 17.2% target share with 2.26 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 25.7% first-read share. If Surtain doesn’t follow Watson, I expect him to see a bump in usage, but I lean that he’ll be the one that Surtain follows. I’m worried about his outlook this week with Surtain on him. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja’Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Doubs has had a 15.1% target share with 20.2 receiving yards per game with 0.96 yards per route run, and a 16% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Doubs has had a team-leading 18.8% target share with 1.73 yards per route run and a 17.1% first-read share. I lean that out of the two players, Watson is more likely to get the Surtain treatment this week. If I’m right, Doubs should see a bump in work. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Courtland Sutton is the WR23 in fantasy points per game with an 18.5% target share, 59.5 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 23.4% first-read share. Sutton is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and deep targets (13). Sutton is headed for a down game this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (69.5%). Against two high, Sutton’s numbers have suffered with a 14% target share with 1.37 yards per route run and a 17.4% first-read share. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton needs a touchdown to save his fantasy day in Week 15.

Troy Franklin (WR)

Last week, Troy Franklin‘s route share fell off the table to 39.5% and he had only a 10.5% target share. Franklin hasn’t been an 80-85% route share receiver this season, but even in Week 13, when people were worried about his usage, he had a 68.8% route share, which has been pretty much his baseline this season. Franklin is off the flex radar this week after the dip in his playing time and the tough matchup this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (69.5%). Against two high, Franklin’s target share has only been 14.8% with 0.95 yards per route run. That’s not good enough to justify blind faith and playing him this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -5.5, O/U 55
• Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Matthew Stafford
• Kyren Williams
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jameson Williams

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jared Goff (QB)

Jared Goff is still playing lights-out football as the QB13 in fantasy points per game. Among 44 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in passing yards per game, second (tied) in passing touchdowns, fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in catchable target rate. Goff has a tough matchup incoming this week, so we’ll see if he’s up to the task. Detroit will need to put up points to hang with the Rams, so we’ll see if Goff (I think he is) is up to the task. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the fourth-lowest CPOE, the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, and ranked 15th in passer rating. Goff will see pressure in his face this week, which could also be problematic. Since Week 10, the Rams have had the 11th-best time to pressure.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

David Montgomery (RB)

David Montgomery is a touchdown-dependent flex play again this week. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.1 touches and 48.8 total yards with a 35.3% snap rate. Montgomery has still been effective on a per-carry basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 27th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery will have a tough time with his early down grinding this week. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest rushing success rate, and the ninth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Montgomery needs a touchdown to pay off for fantasy this week.

Blake Corum (RB)

Blake Corum exploded last week in a good matchup in his part-time role with a 31.4% snap rate, 13 touches, and 131 total yards (two touchdowns). Since Week 7, he has averaged 10.7 touches and 56.9 total yards with a 32.8% snap rate. Among 57 qualifying backs, Corum ranks second in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackle rate, and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Corum will likely see 8-12 touches this week, but he’ll need a touchdown to pay off as a flex play with a rough matchup. Since Week 10, Detroit has limited backs to the second-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest rushing success rate, the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT

Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -13.5, O/U 42.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Tyler Warren

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Sam Darnold is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with six QB1 finishes in weekly scoring this season. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, third in highly accurate throw rate, 20th in catchable target rate, and third in hero throw rate. This week, he faces a Colts’ pass defense that, without Sauce Gardner for most of the last two weeks, has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, and ranked 16th in CPOE. Darnold could easily be a QB1 again this week, especially when you consider Charvarius Ward is also on the IR now.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Josh Downs (WR)

The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I’m just going to look at the Colts’ receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Downs is the WR53 in fantasy points per game with four top 36 weekly wide receiver finishes this season. Downs has a 16.1% target share with 32.8 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and an 18.5% first-read share. He leads the team with 12 red zone targets while also seeing five deep targets. Riley Leonard could lean on Tyler Warren and Josh Downs heavily this week, considering the defensive matchups. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the 15th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Rashid Shaheed is a dart throw flex with a good matchup. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 11, against single high, Shaheed has had only an 11.5% target share with 1.0 yards per route run and a 10.8% first-read share, but the matchup on the perimeter is nice for him. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shaheed pops out of the woodwork with a solid game this week.

AJ Barner (TE)

AJ Barner is a wonderful streaming option this week at tight end. Barner is the TE22 in fantasy points per game with four top-12 weekly finishes among tight ends. Barner has had a 13.1% target share with 29.7 receiving yards per game, 1.57 yards per route run, and an 11.7% first-read share. Barner has two deep targets while ranking second on the team in red zone targets (ten). Indy has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Riley Leonard (QB)

Riley Leonard is dealing with a knee injury, but he practiced in full to open the week. Right now, I’m projecting he will be under center for Indy this week. Last week, he completed 62.1% of his passes with 5.0 yards per attempt, a 65.5% highly accurate throw rate, a 75.9% catchable target rate, and a 3.4% hero throw rate. I’m honestly surprised by the accuracy numbers for Leonard, considering his passing acumen in college. He ran twice for five yards and a score last week. With the knee issue, I doubt running will be a big part of the game plan for him this week. No matter how you look at it, Leonard is a basement-level QB2. Since Week 10, Seattle has remained a nasty pass defense, allowing the fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, the third-lowest success rate per dropback, and the second-lowest CPOE.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

The Seattle backfield has been an exhausting situation to attempt to project all season. Even when we think we have it figured out, the offensive line can’t block, or the game script goes awry. It has been maddening. Since Week 11, Walker has had a 54.1% snap rate and 40.4% route share with a 9.5% target share. He has averaged 15 touches and 78.6 total yards with eight red zone rushing attempts (Zach Charbonnet had ten). Among 57 qualifying backs, Walker remains one of the best tackle breakers in the NFL, sitting at fourth in explosive run rate and second in missed tackle rate. Walker will be running uphill again this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Since Week 11, Zach Charbonnet has averaged 10.5 touches with 50 total yards per game while leading the way with ten red zone rushing attempts. During that span, he has had a 40.2% snap rate with a 25% route share and a 4.0% target share. Among 57 qualifying backs, Charbonnet ranks ninth in yards after contact per attempt and 15th in missed tackle rate. Charbonnet remains a touchdown-or-bust flex play. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I’m just going to look at the Colts’ receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Pittman is the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 21.8% target share, 53.8 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 25.4% first-read share. He ranks third on the team with ten red zone targets, and he has kicked in with seven deep targets. Pittman will struggle this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I’m just going to look at the Colts’ receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Alec Pierce is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with six weeks as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Pierce has an 18.7% target share with 69.9 receiving yards per game, 2.32 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. He has only five red zone targets as his main job has been as the deep threat, with 30.3% of his target volume coming via downfield targets (18.8 aDOT). This matchup doesn’t set up well for Pierce this week. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Also, they have allowed the eighth-fewest deep passing yards per game and the fifth-lowest passer rating to downfield targets.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Cooper Kupp is a flex option best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 11, against single high, Kupp has had an 18% target share with 1.10 yards per route run and an 18.9% first read share. The market share against single high is encouraging, but the efficiency against the coverage type and the corner matchup isn’t. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the second-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Kenny Moore has been playing good football. Sit Kupp.

ATL vs. TB | ARI vs. HOU | CLE vs. CHI | BAL vs. CIN | LAC vs. KC | BUF vs. NE | NYJ vs. JAC | LV vs. PHI | WAS vs. NYG | GB vs. DEN | DET vs. LAR | IND vs. SEA | TEN vs. SF | CAR vs. NO | MIN vs. DAL | MIA vs. PIT