The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -14.5, O/U 37.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

C.J. Stroud (QB)

Since Week 5, in CJ Stroud’s seven starts, he has three QB1 finishes in weekly scoring (QB1, QB11, QB8). Since Week 5, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing yards per game, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 35th in catchable target rate. Stroud could post another QB1 performance in Week 16. Since Week 11, the Raiders’ pass defense has fallen apart, giving up the sixth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Since Week 7, Dalton Schultz has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with six TE1 weekly finishes. Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 19.2% target share with 51.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and an 18.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Schultz has had six red zone targets and four deep targets with two touchdowns. Since Week 11, the Raiders have ranked 19th in yards per target and 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Schultz could be a TE1 again this week.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jayden Higgins (WR)

Since Week 10, Higgins has four top 36 weekly finishes among wide receivers in weekly scoring (WR22, WR35, WR23, WR26). Since Week 10, he has had a 16.1% target share with 39.7 receiving yards, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. In those six games, Higgins has had four red zone targets and six deep targets. Higgins is a strong flex play again this week. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the 12th-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Pete Carroll has stated that the Raiders’ offense could have Geno Smith back under center for Week 16. I don’t care if Smith is starting or Kenny Pickett this week. I don’t want to play the Raiders starting quarterback in fantasy lineups this week. Whoever it is will be in for a long day. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Ashton Jeanty is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in snap share, second in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 17th in red zone touches. Jeanty has averaged 17.8 touches and 69 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, Jeanty is 12th in missed tackle rate and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty will need a heaping amount of volume this week and a touchdown to pay off for fantasy. He has a terrible matchup incoming. Since Week 11, Houston has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

Woody Marks (RB)

Woody Marks opened the week with a DNP (ankle). Nick Chubb managed a limited practice (ribs). If Marks and Chubb can’t play this week, Jawhar Jordan could be Houston’s lead back again this week. I’ll update this situation on Friday.

Jawhar Jordan (RB)

Woody Marks opened the week with a DNP (ankle). Nick Chubb managed a limited practice (ribs). If Marks and Chubb can’t play this week, Jawhar Jordan could be Houston’s lead back again this week. I’ll update this situation on Friday.

*I don’t want to start any Raiders’ pass catcher this week outside of Brock Bowers. I’m not resting my playoff hopes on wide receivers against a pass defense that has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.*

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -7, O/U 51.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jameson Williams

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Jared Goff is having an MVP-caliber season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in passing yards per game and yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in catchable target rate. Goff has a tough matchup this week, but at this point, I have faith that he can overcome it. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, and the 14th-lowest success rate per dropback.

DK Metcalf (WR)

DK Metcalf is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 21.5% target share, 57.7 receiving yards per game, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 27.9% first-read share. Metcalf has 13 red zone targets and 16 deep targets this season. He has had at least 14.4 PPR points in three of his last four games. Metcalf is a strong WR2 this week. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers is the QB24 in fantasy points per game as he continues to play low aDOT point guard for Pittsburgh. Among 44 qualifying quarterbacks, he still has the lowest aDOT (6.0) and the highest percentage of his passing yards from yards after the catch (67.3%) while ranking 21st in yards per attempt, tenth in passing touchdowns (tied), and 25th in passing yards per game. Since Week 11, Detroit’s pass defense has been horrible, giving up the most passing yards per game, the third-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback. They might surprise this week, though. Overall, this defense has allowed the fourth-lowest yards after the catch and the third-fewest missed tackles, which strikes at the core of the Pittsburgh passing offensive design. Rodgers is a QB2 again this week.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB)

Since Week 12, Gainwell has been the RB12 in fantasy points per game with a 49.3% snap share, a 48.4% route share, and an 18.1% target share while averaging 13.3 touches and 73.8 total yards. He has been the team’s preferred passing down back while also eating into Jaylen Warren‘s red zone usage with seven red zone rushing attempts (Warren, nine). Among 58 qualifying backs, Gainwell ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackle rate. He’s a strong RB2/3 again this week. Since Week 11, Detroit’s run defense has been a middle-of-the-road unit ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in yards before contact per attempt, 15th in rushing success rate, and allowing the 14th-most rushing yards per game.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Since Week 12, Jaylen Warren has averaged 14 touches and 55.6 total yards with a 49.3% snap rate, a 33.9% route share, and a 7.8% target share. He has had nine red zone rushing attempts (Gainwell, seven), but he has been losing the passing game role to Gainwell. Among 58 qualifying backs, Warren ranks fifth in missed tackle rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s an RB2/3 again this week. Since Week 11, Detroit’s run defense has been a middle-of-the-road unit ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in yards before contact per attempt, 15th in rushing success rate, and allowing the 14th-most rushing yards per game.

David Montgomery (RB)

Since Week 11, David Montgomery has been a touchdown-dependent flex play with a 33.9% snap rate, 7.8 touches per game, and 45.4 total yards per game. Overall, among 58 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 34th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. This is a nice matchup to consider plugging Montgomery into a lineup. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the third-most yards before contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest rushing success rate.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

N/A

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3, O/U 48
• New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Drake Maye
• TreVeyon Henderson
• Derrick Henry

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Stefon Diggs has seen his route share dip at various points in the season. I bring it up because it happened again last week. Diggs had a 58.6% route share, a 13% target share, and a 17.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, Diggs has had only two top 24 weekly finishes among wide receivers while having a 65.7% route share, a 17.9% target share, 39.3 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. Those are WR3 usage numbers. In those seven games, Diggs has had six red zone targets and five deep targets. I don’t see his usage changing this week, so just understand what you’re signing up for if you’re flexing him this week. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Over the last two games, Rhamondre Stevenson has had a 62.4% snap rate with one red zone rushing attempt while averaging 12 touches and 78.5 total yards. Overall, among 43 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 26th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackle rate, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson is a flex play that is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 11, Baltimore’s run defense has tightened up, allowing the second-lowest explosive run rate, the 14th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Zay Flowers had to deal with DJ Turner‘s shadow coverage in his two recent meetings with the Bengals, and he’ll likely have to deal with shadow coverage again this week. Except in Week 16, Christian Gonzalez will follow him. Gonzalez has shadowed four times this season, following Emeka Egbuka, Darius Slayton, Tee Higgins, and Jerry Jeudy on 61.3-78% of their routes. None of those wide receivers scored a touchdown or surpassed 60 receiving yards, with Gonzalez following them. Temper your expectations for Flowers this week, as Gonzalez could easily be in his back pocket for 60-70% of his routes. Overall, Flowers is the WR23 in fantasy points per game with a 27.2% target share with 68.5 receiving yards per game, 2.40 yards per route run, and a 33.2% first-read share. Flowers has only eight red zone targets this season, but he has amassed 17 deep targets. Flowers will still be started in most leagues and for most fantasy teams, but I’m not expecting a boom week.

Kayshon Boutte (WR)

This isn’t the week to consider flexing Kayshon Boutte. This season, Boutte has been the field stretcher for New England with his 16.7 aDOT and 11 deep targets (28.9% of his target volume). Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the 12th-lowest deep ball completion rate and the seventh-lowest passer rating to downfield targets. Boutte will have more spike weeks this season, but I don’t think this will be one of them.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly finishes this season. Among tight ends, he ranks third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Henry has a 16.8% target share with 44.9 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and a 19.2% first-read share. Sit Henry this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Mark Andrews has been maddening this season. Last week, he had another dud game in a great spot. Andrews has only four TE1 weekly finishes this season and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only once this season. Andrews has a 15.9% target share with 25.6 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has 13 red zone targets and only two deep targets. Andrews looks like he’s headed for another down game this week. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest yards per target to tight ends.

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• SF -6, O/U 46.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor
• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Since his Week 11 return, Brock Purdy has two QB1 weekly finishes (QB3, QB6). Since Week 11, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy has ranked 15th in passing yards per game, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 13th in catchable target rate, and eighth in passing touchdowns (tied). Purdy could spit out QB1 numbers again this week. Since Week 11, Indy has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and the tenth-most yards per attempt despite allowing the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. During that span they have also ranked 17th in pressure rate, so Purdy should have time to find open receivers this week.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 19.9% target share, 47.2 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 27.9% first-read share. In those six games, Jennings has had a ton of high cholesterol usage with nine red zone targets and four deep targets that have helped to lead to six touchdowns. Jennings should easily flirt with WR2 production again this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Philip Rivers (QB)

Before we get into last week’s numbers, I want to say Philip Rivers surprised me. Considering that he hadn’t played in the NFL in five years and suited up on short notice, he looked good. Did he look like a 45-year-old quarterback at times, moving around in the pocket? Yep. Would I like him to have more zip on some passes? Yep. Does that mean he can’t play point guard for this offense right now? Nope. Last week, Rivers played point effectively with a 4.8 aDOT, a 66.7% highly accurate throw rate, and a 77.8% catchable target rate. Sadly, that amounted to only 120 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 4.4 yards per attempt, and a QB28 finish for fantasy. Rivers is a low-end QB2 again this week, but he should be able to manage the game effectively again. Since Week 11, the 49ers have allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest CPOE, and ranked 16th in yards per attempt. It should also help Rivers that during that span, this defense has had the third-lowest pressure rate.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Michael Pittman is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 51.8 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 25.1% first-read share. Pittman is third on the team in red zone targets (ten) and second in deep targets with eight. Last week, Pittman was the WR64 in fantasy with an 18.5% target share, a 7.8 aDOT, 26 receiving yards, and a 21.7% first-read share. With Philip Rivers playing a game manager role, Pittman’s weekly floor and ceiling have been dramatically lowered. He’s a middling flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce has a 17.6% target share with 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Pierce remains the team’s field stretcher with an 18.7 aDOT, 29.8% of his targets coming downfield, and 20 deep targets. Last week, Pierce drew only one target that was 15 yards downfield. This week could bear sweeter fruit, but he is now a riskier bet with Rivers’ decreased arm strength and the specialized role in the Colts’ offense. Pierce will have to make due with decreased target volume and quality. He could produce as a risky flex play this week, though. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-highest deep ball completion rate, the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest passer rating to downfield targets.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs has a 60.5% route share, a 16.3% target share, 31.2 receiving yards per game, 1.47 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Downs is second on the team in red zone targets while also chipping in six deep targets. Last week, Downs had an 18.5% target share, a 17.4% first-read share, 13 receiving yards, and a score. The touchdown saved his day as the WR39 for the week with 10.3 PPR points. Add Downs to the risky wide receiver bets in the Colts’ passing offense that could pay off this week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the most PPR points per target and the 11th-highest passer rating when targeted to opposing slot receivers.

Tyler Warren (TE)

Tyler Warren is the TE10 in fantasy points per game. Warren has a 19.3% target share with 51.3 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Warren leads the team with 16 red zone targets while seeing only two deep targets this season. Last week, Warren finished as the TE30 for the week with three receptions, 19 receiving yards, a 22.2% target share, and a 26.1% first-read share. He could easily bounce back this week as a low-end TE1. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the 11th-most yards per target, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Ricky Pearsall (WR)

Ricky Pearsall aggravated his PCL injury last week. I doubt that he will suit up this week, but I’ll update his status on Saturday.

LAR vs. SEA | PHI vs. WAS | GB vs. CHI | BUF vs. CLE | LAC vs. DAL | NYJ vs. NO | TB vs. CAR | MIN vs. NYG | KC vs. TEN | CIN vs. MIA | ATL vs. ARI | JAC vs. DEN | LV vs. HOU | PIT vs. DET | NE vs. BAL | SF vs. IND

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*