How to Value Rookie RBs in Fantasy Football: Pre-NFL Draft (2026)

The calendar has flipped to April. And that means the 2026 NFL Draft and rookie hype season have officially reached all-new heights, especially for those invested in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

The first-year talent that has entered the league over the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list impressive and continues to grow: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Bucky Irving, Brock Bowers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Jalen McMillan, Tyrone Tracy, C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

But there’s still some ambiguity with every prospect entering the league that should be considered when generating their fantasy value. And how the NFL thinks/views certain prospects based on their projected draft capital – and real draft capital post-draft – should be factored in.

Leveraging projected draft capital provided by the NFL Mock Draft Database and using the historical rookie track record data from the late great Mike Tagliere to devise a value strategy is the best way to approach the 2026 rookie class. It will prepare you for dynasty rookie drafts, LIVE best ball drafts, and season-long leagues after each newcomer finds their NFL landing spot. It will also provide an edge against early pre-draft best ball average draft position (ADP) on Underdog Fantasy, DraftKings, and Fast Draft (along with some of the Discord rookie Mocks using the FP Rookie Mock Draft Simulator.

Again, shout-out to Tags for the 2021 version of this article, which I will be referring to ad nauseam. He provided the backbone for the first version of this article and for each subsequent article since 2022.

It’s one of my favorite pieces to dive into every year because it captures the perception versus reality of what the expectations are for this class – even before we know our NFL landing spots.

I usually hit on all three positions in the same article pre-draft, but this RB class has me so tilted I figured it deserved its own stand-alone piece. 3,500 words on a rookie RB class I’m not even super excited about…Go figure!!!

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How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football (Pre-Draft 2026)

Running Backs

The data suggests a strong correlation between draft capital and running back production in fantasy football. This correlation isn’t surprising because draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity versus talent/skill. The running back position in fantasy football is heavily dependent on volume.

NFL teams have been wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of round one or in the middle of Day 2, intending to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

However, draft capital won’t be easy to come by for the 2026 RB class in particular. The class is very weak, as evidenced by how much veteran RBs were desired during the 2026 free-agent period.

It’s the polar opposite of what happened in 2025, when the veteran RB market was dry, given the strong incoming class overall.

Only one RB earned an average annual value of at least $5M (Najee Harris) during the 2025 offseason. Seven free agent RBs had at least $5.5 million AAV in 2024.

During the 2026 offseason, seven RBs earned at least $5 million AAV (six earning north of $6 Millon AAV) according to Spotrac.

Rookie Running Backs Since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 240 touches per season – a number that ranked 21st in 2025, 21st at the position in 2024, 22nd in 2023, and 20th in 2022. Pretty consistent the last four seasons with the inclusion of a 17th game.

Najee Harris – 381 touches in 2021, tops in the NFL – is still the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise, but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

Ashton Jeanty represents the worst-case/doomsday scenario – where despite heavy volume (321 touches) – he was unable to overcome adverse circumstances.

Last season was hyped up as a strong rookie RB draft class. And it disappointed overall, even if the class had its high-end moments. A quick summary of the 2025 rookie RB class, as I denoted in an earlier offseason article from this offseason (Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Player Notes: RBs (2026)).

2025 Rookie RB Recap

• Ashton Jeanty

(RB6/RB7 ADP) finished his rookie season as the RB17 in points per game (RB14 overall). He failed due to the situation, not due to a lack of opportunities/talent.

• Omarion Hampton

(RB14 ADP) finished his rookie season as the RB16 in points per game (injuries and O-Line problems).

• Cam Skattebo

(RB38 ADP) was the RB10 in points per game, but only played nine games. He was well on his way to a fantasy RB1 season.

• RJ Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins

RJ Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (RB37 ADP) (RB37 ADP) were all low-end fantasy RB2s in 2025, both based on overall and per-game finishes in 2025. Harvey/Henderson were drafted between RB19-RB22. Those two did finish the year as low-end fantasy RB1s in points per game (fueled by injuries to Rhamondre Stevenson and J.K. Dobbins).

• Woody Marks (R4, RB29), Kyle Monangai (R7, RB30), Croskey-Merritt (R7, RB32)

All late-round guys who dramatically outperformed their real-life draft position.

In 2023, we had two RBs selected in the first round: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs– and they delivered despite lofty expectations. Both finished as top-12 fantasy RBs, averaging the exact touch output we should have expected.

With the 2026 season mirroring the 2024 season for rookie RBs (aside from Jeremiyah Love as a projected top-10 pick), I would forecast this year’s rookie RB class to look more like the 2024 season. Not good.

Love is the only sure-fire Round 1 RB in this year’s class. We had four guys with Round 1 buzz in 2025 (two ultimately going in Round 1).

How does Love’s projected DC (draft capital) stack up against his current ADP?

His current ADP in the non-rookie only formats is in the RB9-RB12 range. Essentially, back-end RB1 territory.

Also, much lower than Jeanty was last year during the pre-draft process (RB4-5 range).

But the Notre Dame RB is going ahead of where Hampton was being drafted during the pre-draft process (RB15-RB21 range).

The cheapest place to draft Love is on DraftKings pre-draft best ball. Again, based on the average outcome of first-round rookie RBs, this price is relatively high. And we don’t even know the landing spot for better or worse.

That being said, the late RB1 price tag feels more like a bet on a big win and small loss type of approach, given that these Round 1 RBs do come with considerably high floors as top 24 fantasy RBs. That won’t necessarily kill you. And still a 50/50 chance he finished top-12. And he’s considerably cheaper than Jeanty last year (who still finished RB13 in total points among RBs in half-PPR).

I think the disappointments of Jeanty/Hampton are pushing Love slightly down the board in the overall RB hierarchy.

Most rookie running backs tend to be strong finishers. Hence, patience is super important. And best ball formats tend to reward this second-half production.

The 2025 running back class disappointed (zero 1,000-yard rushers), but the expectations were extremely high. And to be fair, we saw signs of really great players — just not to the consistency fantasy managers would expect.

The Rest of the “Mid” 2026 RB Class

As we enter Round 2, the RB discourse gets more interesting.

The consensus RB2 in terms of expected draft capital is Jadarian Price, Love’s teammate from Notre Dame. He has snuck into the back of Round 1 in some mock drafts, but he is more likely to be an early Day 2 selection.

These Round 2 RBs tend to be pretty good bets: 39% RB2 hit rate (up from 37% after last year’s strong crop of Round 2 RBs). Price (projected No. 46 overall, Round 2) has 39% odds of a top-24 finish. Don’t fade him just because he’s not Round 1.

Because he is a screaming value in these pre-draft best ball contests, just based solely on his projected draft capital. Outside the top-100 picks overall. Outside the top-30 RBs.

Cheaper than both Ohio State RBs last year and Kaleb Johnson. Similar price as Cam Skattebo – who did NOT have as strong projected draft capital with concerns about his 40-time.

There will be a time in place to fade Price if he gets too steamed up based on the landing spot in both redraft and rookie drafts. I think the consensus fantasy RB2 in rookie drafts will vastly surpass the 1.11 (Price’s current rookie draft ADP).

But right now…he is a great value in pre-draft 2026 formats.

After Price, it’s the wild, wild west when it comes to projected draft capital for the rest of this class.

And it’s what makes investing anything super aggressive (or even modestly) into these rookie RBs feel super risky. After Round 2… this is when the floor can completely bottom out (see Kaleb Johnson from 2025).

Most analysts and draft pundits cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is structured that way, but the facts suggest we should view them separately when evaluating the floor/ceiling combination.

This has been one of my biggest takeaways while writing this article every year.

The volume and fantasy finish margin from round two to round three running backs is more significant than from round three to round four running backs.

Of the 38 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last 12 years, just five of them have finished as a top 24 running back in their rookie season (13%), while 27 of them finished outside of the top 36 running backs (71%).

The last four RBs selected in the third round failed to fire as rookies.

The upside is still there (hence the allure of drafting them), but I think you’d rather take that on in a redraft best ball format than in a dynasty league. Buyer beware, these RBs who get drafted in Round 3 RB this season. And do not overpay. the

Because Round 3-4 RBs rarely justify fantasy late Round 1 costs in rookie drafts.

A quick glance at that crop in 2026 with the best chance to sneak into Day 2.

• Mike Washington Jr. (projected No. 71, Round 3) is going 2.01 in fantasy
• Jonah Coleman (projected No. 99, Round 3) is going 1.12 in fantasy
• Emmett Johnson (projected No. 105, Round 4) is going 2.03 in fantasy

Historic Hit Rates:

• Round 3 RBs: 11% RB1, 16% RB2, 26% RB3
• Round 4 RBs: 0% RB1, 4% RB2, 23% RB3

These are HORRIBLE odds at Round 1-2 fantasy cost in rookie drafts.

For me, it’s to take the cheapest rookie RB among the tier following Price, and pray they land favorably or beat draft capital expectations. Fade the pricy guys with the steam into oblivion.

And acknowledge the odds we get a plethora of Day 3 rookie RBs hitting two years in a row?

Very unlikely. Keep in mind. More RB talent got pushed DOWN last year because the class was so deep. The opposite will be true this year.

“Fabricated draft capital” is just another signal to stay away.

Don’t draft Day 3 RBs in 2026 expecting Kyle Monangai-level production.

Arkansas’ Mike Washington Jr. has seen a colossal rise since the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine, with his projected draft capital as high as Round 2. We shall see if that comes to fruition. Consider me very skeptical. He has one of the worst yards per snap in the class (1.97) and split work with Seth McGowan at New Mexico State.

Right now, his RB43-RB50 draft range seems palatable based on his projected DC. However, rookie RBs in this range last season came nowhere close to Round 2 draft capital. That’s the risk. He’s overpriced as a Round 3 rookie RB.

Jonah Coleman has concerns at a similar price (though his expected draft capital is substantially worse than Washington’s) after playing through injuries in 2025. Also, didn’t test besides bench press and position work during the pre-draft process.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Coleman graded as a Day 3 pick. He only has three RBs with a firm Round 3 grade or higher (same as consensus).

Overall, his draft projection across consensus is Round 4. He is just completely overpriced for a Round 3 RB at best, with it very possible it ends up falling to Day 3.

Last year, our projected late-Day 2 RBs ranged from RB38 to RB61. They were all Day 3 picks. In a BETTER RB class. Woof.

The second tier (Price/Washington/Coleman) is mostly overpriced. This tier was also overpriced in 2024. Price is the only worthwhile investment with seemingly the strongest draft capital (but that could entirely be false post-draft).

As I noted in 2024, rookie RBs going outside the top-50 don’t typically yield strong results (pre-draft best ball ADP). Bucky Irving was the big hit (RB54), but he was also an outlier.

Last year’s rookie RBs outside the 50s? Devin Neal (RB51), Ollie Gordon (RB57), RJ Harvey (RB58), and Damien Martinez (RB66).

Harvey was the one who surprised most with draft capital – and as a result was the biggest winner in pre-draft fantasy drafts among the rookie RBs.

If you expected draft capital to be outside the top-3 rounds, it’s hard to justify a pick inside the top-60 RBs (let alone 50s). Other than Johnson falling into Round 4, there’s no other projected Day 3 rookie RB commanding this high a price.

It’s the next crop of rookie RBs, starting with Johnson and the Penn State RBs, where the draft capital risk is more accurately captured in the price. Johnson is outside the top-55 RBs and goes the latest on Fast Draft’s Origins contest. Personally, he’s my favorite after Price — really strong 2025 campaign where he showcased receiving chops.

Given Johnson’s draft capital is in a similar range to guys like Coleman, Washington, etc., he’s my favorite to take stabs on after Love/Price. Again, his pass-catching also helps him stand out a bit more. The 3-cone was buns (9th percentile), but at least he ran it, unlike every other RB at the 2026 combine.

The Penn State RBs are RB65-plus. There is also a sizeable gap between them and the second tier of RBs on Fast Draft’s Origins rookie-only contest.

If they just go inside the top-4 rounds, they are meeting the expected value at worst of a Round 4 rookie RB. And if one surprises with DC higher than anticipated, hello CLV.

Allen seems to have a very transferable skill set for the NFL. And Singleton is falling because he didn’t test due to a broken foot.

NFL Draft Analyst, Tony Pauline, is considerably higher on this draft class – with 12 backs inside his top-100. Allen is his 56^th-ranked player on his Big Board.

This 3^rd-4^th round RB cluster is where I think there is value. The 3rd-4th round cluster from the 2024 class was drafted from RB34 to RB47 before the 2024 NFL Draft took place.

So even though nothing is guaranteed, these rookie RBs are at least priced appropriately.

Keep in mind that Rounds 4-7 are where things become a crapshoot, but there is some semblance to viewing the running backs selected in the first round of Day 3 in a separate tier from rounds five or later.

And it’s because round-four running backs look much more like round-three running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their round-five or later counterparts.

Just look at last season. Skattebo was the highest scoring rookie RB on a per-game basis. Round 4 pick. Bhayshul Tuten had his moments. Woody Marks stumbled into volume, and Dylan Sampson was used as a pass-catcher.

And most importantly, they were ALL better than Kaleb Johnson.

Even though we had more hits for even later guys (Monangai, Croskey-Merritt), Round 4 was still well-represented. And it was a credit to how deep last year’s RB class.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in rounds 5-7.

Players like Skattebo, Tuten, Sampson, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, Braelon Allen, Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Chuba Hubbard most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as fourth-round rookies. And for the most part, their values have stayed relatively steady in the dynasty context, if not on an upward trajectory, specifically after Year 1.

Round 4 isn’t as bad as the “A Day 3 RB” label. And a Day 2 RB (taken in Round 3) isn’t as good.

Another big takeaway from doing this article annually.

In the past six seasons, 77 running backs have been selected in rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco, Chase Brown, Tyrone Tracy, Kyle Monangai and Jacory Croskey-Merritt have been the best of the bunch.

Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted. We’ve seen this more recently as well, with RBs like Jaylen Warren, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Keaton Mitchell. But it usually doesn’t last. Classic pick and flip players to move off quickly.

From 2013 to 2021, just two Day 3 running backs finished as top 24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Tracy (RB26), Pierce (RB27), and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status as rookies. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 – Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) – but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status. Kyle Monangai also fell just short of cresting top-24 status (RB30).

Bucky Irving‘s performance in 2024 was an outlier for a Round 4 pick.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag, regardless of their landing spot. This “process” is going to be tested this season, given the dynamics of a BAD RB class. I’m sure we can keep our expectations in check for whoever Seattle drafts in this year’s RB class, especially if it’s on Day 3.

Part of this stems from these later-round backs having to earn touches and work their way up the depth chart. After all, the draft capital means that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunities by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs. Unfortunately, that is where this class falls short in most scenarios.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, that should be added to the equation (see JCM, Marks last season). But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

Day 3 RB Sleepers?

Outside the rookie RBs I have already mentioned, there’s not much else to go after here, using projected draft capital as our compass for this weak RB class.

I like Seth McGowan as a sleeper, but he’s more viable in rookie drafts than 2026 season-long leagues. Probably better ways to use your final picks in 20-round best ball drafts. There’s a reason rookie RBs such as McGowan, Demond Claiborne, Kaelon Black, Roman Hemby, J’Mari Taylor, Terion Stewart, Le’Veon Moss, Jam Miller, Jaydn Ott, Noah Whittington and Adam Randall don’t have stable ADPs.

Day 3 RBs are guaranteed nothing, and it would be wise to invest in them with the least amount of fantasy capital possible. Be price sensitive when weighing rookie RB options to more concrete handcuffs if possible.

Take it from somebody who drafted way too much of Marcus Yarns last year. A smaller back who went to a small school. Not a good combination. Future UDFA and wasted pick in the making.

On Fast Draft, it becomes more of a conversation because you will have to take some stabs at later Day 3 rookie RBs in a six-round rookie-only draft.

The best value on FD is the aforementioned Penn State’s Kaytron Allen. The fact that he also produced alongside another good RB suggests he can carve out a role at the NFL level in some capacity.

He is the RB7 on Fast Draft’s Origins rookie-only contest and in consensus RB6 in NFL mock drafts. Again, he is the last of the third tier of RBs (before Round 5). You always want to be drafting at the end of a tier, not the beginning.

Allen is also the cheapest on the 2026 redraft/best ball formats, which is where he becomes interesting. But the price between him and Nick Singleton is negligible at best. If Singleton had tested, he would easily be in the Mike Washington range. Take advantage of his lack of testing after he broke his foot at the Senior Bowl.

I mentioned McGowan as a sleeper to target (RB9 on Fast Draft).

Supremely better value than Adam Randall, who goes before McGowan despite having lower real-life projected draft capital.

Kaelon Black is also the RB10 in mocks, despite being the RB17 on Fast Draft. Just simply a bet on Draft Capital.

All the other RBs have little to no projected draft capital we can feel good about.

Claiborne seems like a strong fade across all formats as he is just being drafted at the top of the 4^th RB tier. Not sure he is that much stronger a candidate than guys going after him that aren’t drafted in 100% of drafts.

Moss/Taylor have some intrigue to their profiles, so I also like sprinkling them in. Taylor has received in his arsenal, while Moss is being knocked for health.

Per Tony Pauline, Moss is still recovering from tight rope surgery. Has third-round grades from teams.

Eli Hedenreich is probably my favorite overall sleeper – just depends on what position he plays (either RB or slow WR). Frankly, I don’t care. Upside case is sky-high.

Final thoughts:

The NFL told us how it felt about this year’s rookie RB class compared to the veterans in free agency. Teams are NOT going to be drafting a ton of rookie RBs. Be careful not to overinflate the player based on the landing spot and DC within reason. Because the talent might just not be there.

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