The players below are the ones I’m considering for NFL DFS GPPs this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a significant difference in pricing on FanDuel.
Week 4 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) vs. TEN | DraftKings: $7,300/FanDuel: $8,700
Lamar Jackson didn’t pan out as a ceiling play last week. He came through with the win, but the game centered around Derrick Henry, as Jackson threw for fewer than 200 yards. This week’s matchup could absolutely have the same result with Henry in a revenge game. However, that makes Jackson an interesting contrarian play.
Henry should be the highest-rostered running back of the week. The Titans aren’t a good matchup for quarterbacks on paper because offenses beat them on the ground. However, with a healthy Zay Flowers, those touchdowns could tilt to the pass.
Geno Smith (QB – NYJ) @ CHI | DraftKings: $5,200/FanDuel: $6,900
Well, well, well… talk about a winning combination. Geno Smith stacked with Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq was 100% money. Are we crazy enough to run it back? Don’t let Jalen Hurts‘ performance against the Bears fool you.
They’re a pass-friendly matchup. The Bears gave up over 350 yards to Bryce Young in Week 1. The matchup isn’t as juicy as Detroit, but the Smith double-stack still has legs and won’t have much rostership.
Jordan Love (QB – GB) @ TB | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $7,700
I fully understand this is an unappealing option. However, that’s the appeal in GPPs. The Packers’ offensive line is struggling significantly, and Jordan Love is playing scared, struggling with accuracy. However, he’s pushing aggressive volume because the Packers’ defense can’t stop anyone.
It’s worth a shot to see if Love can continue to push volume and surpass 300 yards for the third time this season. He’s had two touchdowns in each game this season, and a third can get us a ceiling game. The Buccaneers appear tough against the pass. However, they’ve faced Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and “Week 1 Joe Burrow,” who tends to woefully underperform historically in Week 1.
Additional Considerations
- Jacoby Brissett (QB – ARI) @ NYG | DraftKings: $5,000/FanDuel: $6,800
- Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) @ CIN | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $7,900
Running Backs
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) vs. GB | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $7,400
Bucky Irving is currently questionable, but if he’s active, he’s in line for a hefty workload as the Buccaneers likely won’t want to overwhelm rookie Jalon Daniels in his first start.
The Packers are top-five in points allowed to running backs. While a good chunk of that was Bijan Robinson, running backs have scored in every game against the Packers this season. Irving could also see an increase in checkdowns if they fall behind.
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI) @ NYG | DraftKings: $5,800/FanDuel: $6,600*
Jeremiyah Love is coming off his best performance of the season and saw a significant increase in snaps to over 60%. Love has the perfect combination of groundwork and receiving upside, plus a matchup against a Giants defense that is agreeable against the run.
Arizona is a -2.5-point favorite, and a competitive game is the best game script for Love. Love is sub-$6,000 on DraftKings — one of the highest-floor plays in that range.
Braelon Allen (RB – NYJ) @ CHI | DraftKings: $5,200/FanDuel: $5,700*
There seems to be low rostership and a lukewarm sentiment around Braelon Allen, and concerns that Isaiah Davis will play a big role. Perhaps rostership will adjust once Breece Hall is officially ruled out. Davis has had zero involvement this season, and Allen has shown well as a complement to Breece Hall.
The Bears are a sneaky good matchup for running backs. They’re in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Statistically, it should have been worse, but Aaron Jones failed to score on them in Week 2, despite totaling over 100 yards on the ground. And Saquon Barkley had a solid performance, but Jalen Hurts‘ struggles capped his upside. Allen will have goal-line preference and can handle checkdowns. He has legitimate top-12 upside this week.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – KC) @ LV | DraftKings: $8,200/FanDuel: $8,500*
With Derrick Henry‘s popularity this week, Kenneth Walker III presents an interesting opportunity to cash in on a high-upside play at low rostership. Walker got off to a hot start last week, but the Dolphins are a strange matchup that can be hit-or-miss for running backs. Even in a down game, Walker still had 18 carries and two touchdowns. He just didn’t quite pay off at his price.
This week’s matchup should be more competitive. The Raiders aren’t a bad matchup for running backs, despite being top-12 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Raiders have played two teams that don’t run well, and in Week 2, they allowed nearly 100 yards and a touchdown to a struggling Omarion Hampton.
Additional Considerations
- Derrick Henry (RB – BAL) vs. TEN | DraftKings: $8,400/FanDuel: $9,100*
- Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) vs. MIA | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $6,400*
- Kyle Monangai (RB – CHI) vs. NYJ | DraftKings: $4,900/FanDuel: $6,100 (If D’Andre Swift is out)
- Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) vs. DEN| DraftKings: $7,700/FanDuel: $8,800
Wide Receivers
Parker Washington (WR – JAX) @ CIN | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,100*
Parker Washington will be a popular play, but with good reason. He’s averaged over 15 fantasy points this season, and those games have likely been floor games.
The Jaguars have yet to play a truly competitive, high-volume game. Cincinnati offers the perfect combination of an inconsistent defense with a strong offense. We should see solid offensive performances from both teams, opening the door to a Washington ceiling game.
Malik Nabers (WR- NYG) vs. ARI | DraftKings: $6,000/FanDuel: $6,800*
Malik Nabers has dealt with the worst version of Jameis Winston for two weeks. However, we have reason to believe Winston will have a more typical, high-volume performance this week. Winston’s Week 2 performance was coming in cold against a tough Rams’ defense.
Week 3 was a weather game. This week offers a far better defensive matchup. The jury is out on the weather, so monitor the potential for rain. Nabers still has a strong target share with Isaiah Likely as his only competition. He is playable both individually and stacked with Winston.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) vs. TEN | DraftKings: $6,900/FanDuel: $7,300*
Zay Flowers is in play for the same reason as Lamar Jackson, a contrarian play given Derrick Henry‘s popularity. Flowers practiced in full and heads into Week 4 healthy. He got off to an extremely hot start in Week 1 with 150 yards and a touchdown, despite playing fewer than 30% of the snaps.
Flowers was also limited to a third of his snaps in his Week 3 return and still managed 84 yards. If Flowers plays a full game, he has slate-breaking potential as Jackson’s clear favorite target.
Matthew Golden (WR – GB) @ TB | DraftKings: $5,400/FanDuel: $6,300
Christian Watson (WR – GB) @ TB | DraftKings: $6,700/FanDuel: $7,200*
Green Bay leads the league in targets to the wide receiver position and has an extremely narrow target funnel to Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, who have combined for 59 targets this season. It’s possible Green Bay could lean more on the ground game if Jalon Daniels struggles and the Packers are playing with a lead.
However, the Packers are at the bottom of the league in virtually every rushing category this season. Their offensive line is struggling significantly, and the backfield is ineffective without Josh Jacobs. Outside of the Week 2 rainy game, Love has had at least 42 attempts. Volume should continue to flow to Watson and Golden.
Injury-Contingent Plays
Because we have so many injuries at receiver this week, keep your eye on these players. All are potential value plays this week.
- Jordan Addison (if Justin Jefferson is out) vs. MIA | DraftKings: $5,300/FanDuel: $6,500
- Jauan Jennings (if Justin Jefferson is out) vs. MIA | DraftKings: $3,800/FanDuel: $5,400
- Dontayvion Wicks (if DeVonta Smith is out) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $4,300/FanDuel: $5,900
Additional Considerations
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) vs. LAC | DraftKings: $9,100/FanDuel: $9,500*
- Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) @ NYG | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $6,200*
- Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) @ CHI | DraftKings: $6,800/FanDuel: $7,600*
- Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. JAX | DraftKings: $8,100/FanDuel: $9,100
Tight Ends
George Kittle (TE – SF) vs. DEN | DraftKings: $5,100/FanDuel: $6,700
Mike Evans is questionable, so George Kittle is most likely the first-look option in this offense. Kittle saw a dramatic increase in snap count last week, playing over 80% of the snaps and recording six receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns.
Evans played just a third of the snaps before leaving with his injury. The Denver defense has been somewhat friendly to opposing tight ends, and Brock Purdy has been excellent.
Kenyon Sadiq (TE – NYJ) @ CHI | DraftKings: $4,000/FanDuel: $5,300
Kenyon Sadiq saw a price increase after a spectacular Week 3. The popular punt plays this week will be Brenton Strange or AJ Barner, given their matchups.
Sadiq is slightly higher, but still reasonably priced. The Jets will likely be without Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell this week, setting Sadiq up for a repeat performance. Sadiq is slightly banged up, so monitor his status.
Additional Considerations
- Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG) vs. ARI | DraftKings: $4,500/FanDuel: $5,100*
- Trey McBride (TE – ARI) @ NYG | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $7,400
D/ST
Los Angeles Rams D/ST @ PHI | DraftKings: $2,600/FanDuel: $4,100
The natural instinct is to look for a Jalen Hurts bounce-back after the dreadful Week 3 performance against Chicago. However, the Eagles have been inconsistent on offense all season and barely scraped by against mediocre defenses — Washington and Tennessee.
The Rams tend to bounce back angrily after frustrating losses. Hurts has three interceptions, and the Rams’ secondary can force turnovers and produce points at an extremely low price. Since we’re paying up at other positions, we’ll need to save money with a cost-effective play at D/ST.
If you want a safe pay-up D/ST this week, go all the way to the top with MIN D/ST for $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel.
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