Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Trea Turner
PHI
Turner's excellence depends on his health. He's played more than 148 games only once in his seven-year career. If LA's great weather can keep him on the field, he's a legitimate threat for 30 HRs, 100 RBI and 110 runs in a consistently good Dodgers lineup. But Turner's history makes it more likely he plays in something closer to 120-130 games. Is that worth his top-three ADP? Qualifying at 2B bumps up his value a few ticks, but keeper league owners should beware: He'll return to SS-only eligibility in 2023.
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2.
Bo Bichette
TOR
The future is bright for this young star as he enters his age-24 season. Bichette broke out in 2021 with an AL-high 191 hits and proved himself to be a true five-category performer. His dad Dante once hit 40 HRs for the Rockies, and Bo seemingly has room for growth in the power department with some launch-angle adjustments, since his ground ball rate last season was just shy of 50%. Bichette doesn't like to take walks, but he hits the ball hard to all fields. Playing in one of MLB's best lineups should help keep his run and RBI totals robust. His 2021 season will be a tough act to follow, but this is a first-round profile.
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3.
Tim Anderson
CWS
Anderson could fall out of bed and go 2-for-5. His batting averages the last three seasons: .335, .322, .309. At this point, we have to conclude that his consistently high BABIPs aren't fluky. Anderson isn't a truly elite base stealer, but he swiped 18 bags in 123 games last season and could conceivably steal 25-30 bases in a good year. Anderson has consistently been in the 17-20 home run range, so while he won't provide a lot of help in the power department, he won't hurt you either. In a loaded White Sox lineup, Anderson has a chance to score 100 runs if he can stay healthy. Anderson's ADP suggests he might slip into the fourth round of your draft. Pounce on him if he does.
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4.
Xander Bogaerts
FA
He was batting .321 at the All-Star Break last year, but a wrist injury sapped some of his mojo in the back half of the season. Bogaerts has one of the more stable skill sets in MLB. He has a .290 career average, and his run production has been remarkably stable. You can pencil in Bogaerts for 25 HRs, 90 RBI and 90 runs, and he's likely to hew pretty close to those numbers. Fenway Park and a strong lineup work in his favor. He's been so good for so long, it's hard to believe he's still in his 20s.
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5.
Trevor Story
BOS
In Colorado, Story was a menace. Away from the mile high air, he's just another guy. Since 2019, Story's batting average has been 80 points lower away from Denver, and his slugging percentage is 150 points lower. He's hit 60.1% of his career home runs at Coors Field, and 62% of his career RBI have come there. Now he'll be playing his home games in Fenway Park, arguably the second-best hitters park in baseball. But while Fenway is good for hitters overall, it actually depresses home runs slightly. Let someone else spend the year complaining that they weren't smart enough to dodge this overpriced bullet.
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6.
Marcus Semien
TEX
Semien's 45 HRs last season were the most ever by a second baseman. His monster 2021 performance also included 115 runs, 102 RBI and 15 stolen bases. A 48% flyball rate makes Semien a launch angle darling and suggests that he'll keep clearing the fences. He's been a prolific run scorer for the last four seasons. On the other hand, there's some batting average risk here, and Semien probably maxed out his SB potential last year. He's going from a loaded Blue Jays lineup to a sketchy Rangers lineup, and Semien will turn 32 in September. Last year's numbers will make him irresistible to some investors, but a drop-off in value may be imminent.
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7.
Francisco Lindor
NYM
Lindor melted like hot butter under the New York spotlight. Last year's $341 million free agent signing was - how do we put this nicely? - awful. Simply awful. There was no pop in his bat, as evidenced by a career-low SLG%. He struck out 96 times in only 125 games, well above his career average, and became an albatross on Mets owner Steve Cohen's hopes and dreams. Lindor is the biggest boom-or-bust top-50 player in the game. If you believe last year was an aberration, snap him up in the late third or early fourth round. If you believe the Mets are going to regret backing up the Brinks truck for a player on an early decline, let someone else get saddled by a name that may well be better than the stats.
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8.
Wander Franco
TB
The Rays' wunderkind signed an 11-year, $182 million contract in November and now simply has to go about the business of becoming the superstar everyone expects him to become. Franco scored 53 runs and had 39 RBI in only 70 games last season. He also displayed impressive plate patience and remarkable contact skills as a 20-year-old rookie. He's not a speed merchant, and the power might take time to develop, but Franco should score a lot of runs, drive in a lot of runs and produce something close to a .300 batting average.
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9.
Corey Seager
TEX
Seager will play with an American League team for the first time after the Rangers gave him a 10-year $325 million deal. Seager will rake when healthy. He's batted .307 and .306 the last two years and has a career average of .297. He also makes solid contributions in HRs, RBI and runs. Seager won't offer much help in the SB department, however. There's little performance risk, but there's a lot of health risk. Seager had both hip surgery and Tommy John surgery in 2018, and he missed more than two months with a broken hand last year. He's in the prime of his career and figures to offer a satisfying return on investment if he can stay healthy.
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10.
Javier Baez
DET
The free-swinging middle infielder signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers. Baez led the NL with 184 strikeouts last year but also belted 31 homers, had 87 RBI and 80 runs, and batted a respectable .265. This is a strange, volatile skill set, but Baez can usually be counted on to provide help with the counting stats. He won't hurt you in leagues that use batting average, but his unwillingness to take a walk becomes a liability in OBP leagues.
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11.
Jorge Polanco
MIN
Polanco enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2021, batting .269 with 33 HRs, 98 RBI, 97 runs and 11 SBs. He went nuclear after the All-Star break, batting .287 with 21 homers. Could it be that Polanco feels less pressure as a second baseman than as a shortstop, and his hitting has benefitted as a result? Polanco has always been a line drive machine, so even if the power gains don't stick (and there's a good chance they won't), he should still deliver a healthy batting average. Dual 2B-SS eligibility is a plus. Polanco is a worthy investment, but don't pay for a full repeat of the power.
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12.
Carlos Correa
FA
Correa enjoyed one of his finest seasons to date in 2021, establishing new career highs in homers (26) and runs (104). He also had 92 RBI and batted .279. Good health was a key, as he played 148 games. Since breaking into the league in 2015, Correa had played more than 110 games only twice. At 27, Correa is squarely in his prime. His power production is probably maxed out due to his modest flyball rates, but his improved plate patience and robust line drive rates suggest that the healthy batting average and solid run production are easily repeatable. Correa is a free agent, so his landing spot will have a major bearing on his value.
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13.
Adalberto Mondesi
KC
If only we could transfer this skill set to a more durable body. Mondesi is a stolen base machine with some surprising pop in his bat, but he hasn't played in more than 102 games or made more than 443 plate appearances in any season, and he's played more than 75 games only once. Leg and foot injuries limited him to only 35 games last year, yet Mondesi still managed to swipe 15 bags and belt six home runs. He strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and has a .249 career batting average, but his contributions in the counting categories (especially steals) more than make up for it. This is all about risk tolerance, and you're obligated to bake some missed games into Mondesi's price.
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14.
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC
Witt was drafted everywhere after buzz in the spring suggested that he'd be up in the majors before long. "Before long" became never, as Witt spent the entire year in Double-A and Triple-A, admittedly showing why he's such a valued prospect. In 123 games combined between the levels, he hit 33 home runs and stole 29 bases, all with a plus average. Witt should begin the year in the majors (or be up shortly after the start of the season), and he'll almost certainly play third base, giving him dual-eligibility. He may struggle early on, but he's too talented to let it continue for long. At a barren third base position, he could be one of the most impactful players in fantasy baseball this year based on his ADP.
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15.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
MIA
Let me introduce you to my second base draft target. Just 24 years old, Chisholm offers a tantalizing combination of power and speed. If he makes the necessary offseason adjustments to hit breaking pitches better, Chisholm will deliver an all-star season. He'll max out as a four category guy until he gets his average up, but for a guy ranked outside of the top 10 in nearly every set of 2B rankings, Chisholm looks like a potential draft steal. A 20/20 season is all but a lock.
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16.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD
A fractured wrist has changed the draft calculus on Tatis Jr., who might be out for as long as three months. It's always taken an iron stomach to draft him and deal with the injury risk. When healthy, he's a multi-category box score stuffer. His counting numbers are so orbital, he's basically a seven-category player ... when he's on the field. Now, you simply can't consider taking him within the first seven rounds.
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17.
Dansby Swanson
FA
Swanson is the type of player that you're not excited to draft but who you know will give you reliable production. At this stage of his career, he's pretty much a .250-25-10 type of bat who should give you about 165 combined runs and RBI in a strong Braves lineup. There's been nearly no change to Swanson's underlying metrics and data over the last three seasons, and though he could show some growth as he moves into his late-20s, chances are that he just is who he is. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, especially since his price is always kept in check by his lack of excitement. If you miss out on the prime shortstops, he's a fine consolation prize late in drafts.
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18.
Willy Adames
MIL
If ever a player needed a trade, it was Adames. In his career, he has batted just .217 with a .616 OPS in Tropicana Field. And he was particularly dreadful with the Rays last year, slashing .197/.254/.371. He was an entirely different player after his trade to the Brewers, hitting 20 home runs in 99 games, with nearly a .900 OPS. He's probably due for some regression, as he outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage pretty significantly last season. But even if you knock off 20% of what we saw him do with the Brewers last season, he'd still be a startable option in fantasy. He's unlikely to take the leap into stardom, but he can and should certainly maintain the leap he took last year into relevance.
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19.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
Cronenworth quietly had a very solid season for the Padres, totaling 21 home runs and exactly an .800 OPS. He's not an exciting player - he doesn't have a ton of power or speed and his batting average won't wow you. But he'll bat second for the Padres this year and so you can expect him to challenge the 94 runs scored he totaled last season. He also struck out just 14% of the time last year, which ranked in the top 10% in MLB, so he's unlikely to endure prolonged slumps, and consistent production goes further in today's fantasy landscape than it used to. Add to that his multi-position eligibility and Cronenworth makes an ideal part of any fantasy team, particularly one with daily lineup changes.
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20.
Chris Taylor
LAD
Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.
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21.
Gleyber Torres
NYY
Forget about ever seeing Torres come close to the 38 home runs he hit in 2019. His power has come crashing back down to earth over the past two years, along with his batting average. He did rebound a bit in the second half, hitting .289 with six home runs and eight steals, but when those are the numbers that force you to have hope for his fantasy production, things aren't in great shape. He'll still bat in an outstanding lineup so his counting stats should have somewhat of a floor, but he's now an option you settle for, rather than target.
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22.
Brandon Crawford
SF
You don't often see 34-year-old shortstops putting up massive career years, but that's exactly what we saw from Crawford in 2021. He set career bests in each of the five rotisserie categories, while beating his averages in strikeout and walk percentage. Crawford's quality of contact improved a bit, but not enough to make you think he's suddenly a completely different player than he had been his whole career. Don't bet on a repeat performance, but don't completely ignore Crawford in your drafts, as many managers likely will. The San Francisco offense is strong, and the park is less pitcher-friendly than it used to be. Crawford is more than capable of being your middle infielder in fantasy.
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23.
Brendan Rodgers
COL
Rodgers finally provided some fantasy value last year, batting .284 with 15 home runs in just 102 games. The proclivity for stolen bases he showed at times in the minors is non-existent now, but he seemingly did enough to lock down an everyday job in the majors going forward. His putrid walk rate will keep both his OBP and his runs scored total in check, but he should help in batting average and approach 20 home runs. That's perfectly acceptable as a middle infielder, even if it comes with a low ceiling.
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24.
Amed Rosario
CLE
It was a tale of two halves for Rosario, as he slashed .259/.306/.367 in the first half and .309/.339/.457 in the second half. The end result was a good one, as Rosario wound up being a contributor in four of the five rotisserie categories, and is trending up heading into 2022. The biggest issue at this point is the extreme weakness of the Guardians' lineup, which is projected to be one of the worst in baseball. That's going to significantly cut into Rosario's counting stats and depress his value. But the options to help your batting average and generally contribute everywhere are few and far between, so Rosario should be no worse than a high-end bench player for your team.
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25.
Eugenio Suarez
SEA
Suarez has continued to hit for power but his batting average has fallen off a cliff the last two seasons to just .199. Other than the fact that he had shoulder surgery just before the 2020 season, there's nothing really to explain. Almost all of his underlying metrics and quality of contact data look nearly identical to how they have his whole career, and he's just entering his age-30 season. But whatever the reason, Suarez is now a batting average drain, and he'll likely hit fewer home runs after being traded to Seattle. There's still plenty of value there, as he should still be a plus contributor in homers and RBI. But hope for a .230 batting avaerage as his ceiling at this point.
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26.
Luis Urias
MIL
Urias exploded last year, putting up 23 homers with 149 combined runs and RBI. Just to put that into perspective, Urias's high in home runs before last year was four, and his best combined runs and RBI total was 51. Most of his production was backed up by the underlying data, as his hard-contact rates exploded. He'd be a prime sleeper but he's battling a quad injury that is going to shut him down until early April at least, so knock him down your draft board a bit with the injury news. Performance-wise, however, last year looks legitimate.
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27.
Oneil Cruz
PIT
Cruz has somehow stayed at shortstop despite being 6'7, and he opened the eyes of even the casual fantasy manager this spring with his long home runs. The power is real, without question, but there will undoubtedly be plenty of strikeout issues once he's in the majors. That won't be out of the gate, as the Pirates optioned him to Triple-A. He's worth drafting even with this development, but you may have to wait a month more to see him contribute.
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28.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
NYY
Kiner-Falefa had eight home runs and 20 steals last season, but he was the ultimate compiler with 677 plate appearances. He'll move to a better lineup and home park with the Yankees but, realistically, his value was at his ceiling last year. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard or get on base much, but his defense should keep him in the lineup enough to again compile enough stats to at least be interesting for fantasy. But "interesting" is basically his ceiling.
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29.
Nicky Lopez
KC
If they gave out fantasy points for soft contact, Lopez would be one of your leaders. He has five home runs in three combined seasons, and his career high in RBI is 43. He has some speed, as his 22 stolen bases showed last year, and he shouldn't hurt you in batting average. But batting ninth in a mediocre Kansas City lineup, with zero power upside, is just not a formula for success. There are better places to spend your late-round draft capital.
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30.
Gavin Lux
LAD
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31.
Gio Urshela
LAA
Urshela was moved to Minnesota this offseason where he'll man third base and likely bat in the bottom third of the order. When healthy, he's a high-average, 20-homer bat who will chip in everywhere but steals. But his margin for error is fairly thin given how mediocre his quality of contact is and with his poor walk rate. Given that his surrounding llineup and home park took a pretty drastic step down, he's really just an AL-only option at this point.
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32.
Josh Rojas
ARI
Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.
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33.
Jonathan Villar
SEA
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34.
Jeremy Pena
HOU
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35.
Andres Gimenez
CLE
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36.
Didi Gregorius
FA
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37.
J.P. Crawford
SEA
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38.
Paul DeJong
STL
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39.
David Fletcher
LAA
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40.
Joey Wendle
MIA
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41.
Miguel Rojas
MIA
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42.
Josh Harrison
FA
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43.
CJ Abrams
WSH
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44.
Ha-Seong Kim
SD
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45.
Bryson Stott
PHI
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46.
Jose Iglesias
FA
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47.
Kyle Farmer
MIN
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48.
Jorge Mateo
BAL
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49.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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50.
Nick Ahmed
ARI
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51.
Edmundo Sosa
PHI
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52.
Ramon Urias
BAL
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53.
Jose Barrero
CIN
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54.
Kevin Smith
OAK
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55.
Elvis Andrus
FA
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56.
Tyler Wade
FA
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57.
Alcides Escobar
FA
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58.
Kevin Newman
CIN
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59.
Luis Garcia
WSH
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60.
Leury Garcia
CWS
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61.
Andrelton Simmons
FA
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62.
Niko Goodrum
FA
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63.
Cole Tucker
ARI
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64.
Thairo Estrada
SF
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65.
Nick Gordon
MIN
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66.
Willi Castro
FA
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67.
Taylor Walls
TB
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68.
Jeter Downs
BOS
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69.
Aledmys Diaz
OAK
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70.
Geraldo Perdomo
ARI
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71.
Sergio Alcantara
FA
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72.
Marwin Gonzalez
FA
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73.
Mauricio Dubon
HOU
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74.
Yu Chang
FA
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75.
Hoy Park
BOS
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76.
Mark Vientos
NYM
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77.
Hanser Alberto
FA
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78.
Luis Rengifo
LAA
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79.
Harold Castro
FA
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80.
Jack Mayfield
LAA
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81.
Vimael Machin
OAK
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82.
Ronald Torreyes
FA
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83.
Nick Allen
OAK
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84.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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85.
Andrew Velazquez
LAA
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86.
Gabriel Arias
CLE
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87.
Danny Mendick
FA
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88.
Jordan Groshans
MIA
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89.
Richie Martin
FA
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90.
Oswaldo Cabrera
NYY
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91.
Nick Maton
PHI
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92.
Pat Valaika
FA
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93.
Lucius Fox
WSH
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94.
Otto Lopez
TOR
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95.
Zack Short
DET
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96.
Jonathan Arauz
BAL
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97.
Tyler Freeman
CLE
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98.
Royce Lewis
MIN
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99.
Eguy Rosario
SD
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100.
Daniel Robertson
PHI
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101.
Travis Demeritte
FA
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102.
Pedro Leon
HOU
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103.
Oswald Peraza
NYY
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104.
Pete Kozma
FA
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105.
Yolbert Sanchez
FA
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106.
Omar Estevez
LAD
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107.
Robel Garcia
FA
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108.
Tim Beckham
FA
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109.
Erik Gonzalez
MIA
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110.
JT Riddle
FA
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111.
Clay Dungan
KC
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112.
Ryan Kreidler
DET
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113.
Freddy Galvis
FA
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114.
Logan Warmoth
TOR
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115.
Kyle Holder
FA
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116.
Ryan Goins
FA
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117.
Drew Jackson
FA
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118.
Dee Strange-Gordon
FA
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119.
Deven Marrero
FA
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120.
Brice Turang
MIL
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121.
Tyler Ladendorf
FA
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122.
Yasel Antuna
WSH
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123.
Richard Urena
FA
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124.
Franklin Barreto
WSH
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