Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Jacob deGrom
NYM
deGrom barely missed out on winning his third straight Cy Young Award last year, but it was yet another dominant season. For the third straight year, he came in with a WHIP under 1.00, an ERA under 2.50, and a strikeout percentage above 31%. deGrom is getting up there in age, but it's worth remembering that he has fewer miles on his arm than most pitcher entering their age-33 season, given that he didn't transition to pitching until late in his college career and missed significant time with injuries during his time in the minors. deGrom has shown no decline in his game, and should hopefully (finally) begin to pile on more wins this year pitching for a better team in front of an improved bullpen. He should be the first or second starting pitcher taken and is an obvious first-round pick.
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2.
Gerrit Cole
NYY
Cole was pretty much as advertised in his first season with the Yankees. His ERA rose a tad, as did his home run rate as expected, and his strikeout rate fell a bit, though it remained at an absurdly high level. And, for the most part, all of his expected metrics fell off a tad from his 2019 season. But Cole's numbers from that season were so dominating that he could withstand plenty of regression and still be one of the best pitchers in fantasy. As such, he'll head into 2021 close to the way he came into the 2020 season: a dominant, high-strikeout, low-walk starter who will throw plenty of innings and who is more likely to finish as the top overall fantasy pitcher than he is to finish outside the top-10. It's a matter of personal preference between Cole and Jacob deGrom as the first pitcher off the board, but neither should fall outside the top-10 overall picks on draft day.
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3.
Shane Bieber
CLE
Bieber took the huge gains he had made in 2019 and kicked the into hyperdrive en route to a Cy Young season. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and took his strikeout percentage to 41.1%, which ranked first among qualified starters. Everything was exceptional for Bieber, as he held batters to just a .167 batting average, barely allowed home runs, and earned eight wins in just 12 starts. He may struggle to again find wins given the Indians' depleted lineup, but there is nothing else to think twice about with Bieber. He's part of the ultra-elite tier in starting pitching with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole, and should be a first-round selection.
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4.
Walker Buehler
LAD
Because the Dodgers wanted to closely watch Buehler's routine and workload, he got a late start to the shortened season, essentially using his first few starts as the end of his spring training. He also dealt with blisters late in the year. All that to say, Buehler's 36 2/3 regular-season innings are, for the most part, largely meaningless. He gave up a few more home runs and walked a few more batters than usual, and he won just a single game. But none of it matters. Value Buehler as you did after his 2019 season - as one of the true stud pitchers in the game. Once the big three of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber are off the board, Buehler should come under immediate consideration, as the type of starting pitcher who can be your fantasy ace.
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5.
Trevor Bauer
FA
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6.
Yu Darvish
SD
After a career year in 2020, Darvish moves to San Diego in a trade that shouldn't affect his strong 2021 outlook all that much. Despite his advancing age, Darvish built on the gains he had made over the second half of 2019, finishing with a 2.01 ER, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 31.3% strikeout rate. Darvish's walk rate has declined to a level once thought unattainable for the veteran, a mere 4.7%, which was in the top 8% of MLB in 2020. Although he'll be entering his age-35 season, there's simply nothing in Darvish's numbers, metrics, or statcast data that points to a decline. If you are desperate to find a negative, it's a move from the weak-hitting NL Central to the much stronger NL West, but that's hardly a reason to avoid Darvish. Draft him as an easy top-10 starter, and more like a top-5 option.
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7.
Aaron Nola
PHI
Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
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8.
Lucas Giolito
CWS
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9.
Max Scherzer
WSH
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10.
Jack Flaherty
STL
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11.
Luis Castillo
CIN
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12.
Clayton Kershaw
LAD
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13.
Blake Snell
SD
Snell moves to the Padres fresh off a solid year, in which he pitched to a 3.24 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with a memorable early exit in the World Series. Snell has a checkered injury history and has pitched just 157 innings over the past two years, so don't expect him to be a big innings-eater in 2021. And, although he'll escape the dreaded AL East, he'll get a downgrade in park and defense, which largely makes the move a neutral one. All that said, Snell has plenty of talent as he's shown throughout his career, and should be able to pile up wins and strikeouts pitching for a strong Padres team. Draft him as an SP2 with upside.
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14.
Brandon Woodruff
MIL
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15.
Zac Gallen
ARI
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16.
Stephen Strasburg
WSH
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17.
Kenta Maeda
MIN
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18.
Sonny Gray
CIN
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19.
Lance Lynn
CWS
Lynn turned in another stellar year in 2020, leading MLB with 84 innings pitched, striking out plenty of batters, and keeping his walk rate and overall numbers in check. But there are a few warning signs under the hood, including his 4.19 FIP, his 4.34 xFIP, and his career-high 79.4% LOB rate. Of bigger concern is his trade to the White Sox and hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, particularly because Lynn had a 38.3% fly-ball rate in 2019 and a 42.3% fly-ball rate last year. That led to the worst HR/9 rate of his career and second-worst HR/FB rate (13.8%) in 2020. Countering those troublesome warning signs, however, is the fact that he'll be caught by perhaps the best pitch framer in baseball in Yasmani Grandal, and that will generally help with his numbers which, again, were excellent last year. Add it all up and Lynn's ERA should likely increase simply because of the additional home runs he'll allow if he can't turn around his trend in fly-ball rate, but Grandal's presence and Lynn's general aptitude on the mound should allow for another strong season and make him worthy of a selection as an SP2.
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20.
Tyler Glasnow
TB
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21.
Dinelson Lamet
SD
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22.
Max Fried
ATL
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23.
Hyun Jin Ryu
TOR
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24.
Carlos Carrasco
NYM
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25.
Zach Plesac
CLE
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26.
Zack Greinke
HOU
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27.
Zack Wheeler
PHI
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28.
Corbin Burnes
MIL
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29.
Kyle Hendricks
CHC
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30.
Chris Paddack
SD
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31.
Jose Berrios
MIN
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32.
Jesus Luzardo
OAK
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33.
Ian Anderson
ATL
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34.
Framber Valdez
HOU
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35.
Dylan Bundy
LAA
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36.
Charlie Morton
ATL
Morton's 2020 numbers were poor, without question. He was limited to just 38 regular season innings because of a shoulder injury, and pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. His velocity was way down early in the season (when he got hit hard) and trickled up after he returned, but he got back to his normal 95 MPH fastball in the postseason and totaled a 2.70 ERA. Now 37 and with the Braves, the question is whether fantasy managers can write off Morton's down 2020 season considering his sterling post-season, or whether his age and injury history means they should avoid him. In reality, the answer is neither. Morton should still have gas left in the tank considering his playoff run, but should only be drafted as a value, meaning no earlier than a low-end SP3. Grab him there, at which point the risk-reward balance should reach an equilibrium.
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37.
Patrick Corbin
WSH
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38.
Sixto Sanchez
MIA
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39.
Julio Urias
LAD
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40.
Mike Soroka
ATL
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41.
Lance McCullers Jr.
HOU
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42.
Frankie Montas
OAK
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43.
Pablo Lopez
MIA
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44.
Joe Musgrove
SD
Musgrove has been a popular sleeper the last two seasons and now that he's been traded to the Padres, his ADP is surely going to rise. In 2019, Musgrove continued to improve as a pitcher, upping his strikeout rate and adding velocity. But his 2020 season looked like a step back, until he returned from the IL strong, including finishing his season with back-to-back scoreless outings while getting back some of the lost zip on his fastball. Overall, Musgrove's 2020 numbers suggest a breakout waiting to happen, as he built significantly on his gains in 2019, increasing his strikeout rate to 33.1%. His chances for wins should improve dramatically in San Diego, and he's a fine fourth starter with upside.
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45.
German Marquez
COL
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46.
Marco Gonzales
SEA
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47.
Sandy Alcantara
MIA
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48.
Aaron Civale
CLE
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49.
David Price
LAD
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50.
Dustin May
LAD
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51.
Devin Williams
MIL
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52.
Dallas Keuchel
CWS
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53.
Chris Bassitt
OAK
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54.
Triston McKenzie
CLE
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55.
Tony Gonsolin
LAD
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56.
Chris Sale
BOS
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57.
Kevin Gausman
SF
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58.
Andrew Heaney
LAA
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59.
Eduardo Rodriguez
BOS
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60.
Brady Singer
KC
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61.
Cristian Javier
HOU
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62.
John Means
BAL
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63.
Shohei Ohtani
LAA
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64.
Zach Eflin
PHI
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65.
Zach Davies
CHC
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66.
Jose Urquidy
HOU
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67.
Jameson Taillon
PIT
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68.
Corey Kluber
NYY
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69.
Michael Pineda
MIN
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70.
James Paxton
FA
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71.
Marcus Stroman
NYM
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72.
Tyler Mahle
CIN
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73.
Sean Manaea
OAK
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74.
Justus Sheffield
SEA
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75.
Nathan Eovaldi
BOS
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76.
Matthew Boyd
DET
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77.
Ryan Yarbrough
TB
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78.
Nate Pearson
TOR
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79.
Drew Pomeranz
SD
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80.
Griffin Canning
LAA
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81.
Elieser Hernandez
MIA
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82.
MacKenzie Gore
SD
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83.
Taijuan Walker
FA
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84.
Masahiro Tanaka
FA
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85.
Dane Dunning
TEX
Dunning had an interesting seven-start run in 2020. He started out relying heavily on his outstanding slider and his fastball, which led to a strong swinging strike rate and plenty of punchouts in his first few starts. He then abandoned that approach to focus more on his changeup, which led to him missing fewer bats and being less successful. Now with the Rangers, Dunning should get a chance to compete for a rotation spot right out of the gate. He has the tools and skills necessary to be successful, and the draft capital necessary to acquire him should be minimal. He's worth a late-round pick in nearly all formats.
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86.
Diego Castillo
TB
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87.
Jordan Romano
TOR
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88.
Michael Kopech
CWS
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89.
Tarik Skubal
DET
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90.
Brad Keller
KC
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91.
Jordan Montgomery
NYY
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92.
Drew Smyly
ATL
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93.
Mike Minor
KC
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94.
Domingo German
NYY
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95.
Justin Verlander
HOU
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96.
Tanner Houck
BOS
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97.
Deivi Garcia
NYY
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98.
Noah Syndergaard
NYM
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99.
Jake Odorizzi
FA
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100.
Miles Mikolas
STL
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101.
Luis Severino
NYY
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102.
Mitch Keller
PIT
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103.
Alex Reyes
STL
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104.
Spencer Turnbull
DET
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105.
Caleb Smith
ARI
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106.
Yusei Kikuchi
SEA
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107.
Casey Mize
DET
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108.
Rich Hill
FA
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109.
Adam Wainwright
FA
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110.
Jon Gray
COL
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111.
Spencer Howard
PHI
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112.
Josh Lindblom
MIL
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113.
Freddy Peralta
MIL
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114.
Dylan Cease
CWS
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115.
Madison Bumgarner
ARI
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116.
Robbie Ray
TOR
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117.
Alec Mills
CHC
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118.
Luke Weaver
ARI
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119.
Ross Stripling
TOR
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120.
Dean Kremer
BAL
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121.
Garrett Richards
BOS
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122.
Chad Green
NYY
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123.
Daniel Bard
COL
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124.
A.J. Puk
OAK
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125.
Keegan Akin
BAL
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126.
Tejay Antone
CIN
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127.
Dakota Hudson
STL
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128.
Jose Leclerc
TEX
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129.
Austin Gomber
STL
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130.
Rick Porcello
FA
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131.
Hunter Harvey
BAL
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132.
Adbert Alzolay
CHC
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133.
Kyle Wright
ATL
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134.
David Peterson
NYM
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135.
Gregory Soto
DET
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136.
Lucas Sims
CIN
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137.
Johnny Cueto
SF
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138.
Danny Duffy
KC
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139.
J.A. Happ
MIN
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140.
Carlos Martinez
STL
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141.
Anthony DeSclafani
SF
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142.
Adrian Houser
MIL
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143.
Tyler Matzek
ATL
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144.
Brendan McKay
TB
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145.
Luis Patino
TB
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146.
Cal Quantrill
CLE
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147.
Brusdar Graterol
LAD
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148.
Ian Kennedy
FA
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149.
Kyle Freeland
COL
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150.
Kyle Gibson
TEX
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151.
Mike Foltynewicz
FA
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152.
Joey Lucchesi
NYM
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153.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
STL
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154.
Jesse Hahn
KC
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155.
Trevor Rogers
MIA
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156.
Forrest Whitley
HOU
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157.
Clarke Schmidt
NYY
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158.
Alex Wood
SF
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159.
Yonny Chirinos
TB
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160.
Mike Clevinger
SD
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161.
Kris Bubic
KC
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162.
Cole Hamels
FA
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163.
Jose Quintana
LAA
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164.
JT Brubaker
PIT
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165.
Jonathan Hernandez
TEX
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166.
Logan Webb
SF
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167.
Adrian Morejon
SD
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168.
Josh James
HOU
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169.
Corbin Martin
ARI
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170.
Randy Dobnak
MIN
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171.
Steven Matz
NYM
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172.
Matt Manning
DET
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173.
Anibal Sanchez
FA
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174.
Merrill Kelly
ARI
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175.
Antonio Senzatela
COL
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176.
Jonathan Loaisiga
NYY
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177.
Jeff Samardzija
FA
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178.
Matt Strahm
SD
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179.
Jon Lester
WSH
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180.
Julio Teheran
FA
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181.
Reynaldo Lopez
CWS
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182.
Chris Archer
FA
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183.
Mike Fiers
FA
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184.
Justin Dunn
SEA
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185.
Bud Norris
FA
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186.
Homer Bailey
FA
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187.
Tanner Roark
TOR
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188.
Scott Barlow
KC
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189.
Matt Shoemaker
FA
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190.
Jordan Yamamoto
MIA
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191.
Brent Suter
MIL
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192.
Bryse Wilson
ATL
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193.
Chad Kuhl
PIT
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194.
Daniel Norris
DET
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195.
Nick Pivetta
BOS
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196.
Trevor Richards
TB
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197.
Joe Ross
WSH
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198.
Enoli Paredes
HOU
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199.
Tyler Beede
SF
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200.
Logan Gilbert
SEA
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201.
Darwinzon Hernandez
BOS
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202.
Jake Arrieta
FA
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203.
Felix Pena
LAA
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204.
Austin Voth
WSH
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205.
Jaime Barria
LAA
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206.
Brent Honeywell Jr.
TB
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207.
Michael King
NYY
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208.
Edward Cabrera
MIA
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209.
Carlos Rodon
FA
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210.
Steven Brault
PIT
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211.
Trevor Williams
FA
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212.
Tyler Anderson
FA
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213.
Ryan Helsley
STL
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214.
Robert Stephenson
COL
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215.
Asher Wojciechowski
NYY
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216.
Nick Kingham
TOR
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217.
Vince Velasquez
PHI
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218.
Logan Verrett
BAL
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219.
Touki Toussaint
ATL
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220.
Anderson Espinoza
SD
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221.
John Gant
STL
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222.
Michael Fulmer
DET
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223.
Sean Newcomb
ATL
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224.
Kolby Allard
TEX
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225.
Jeff Hoffman
CIN
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226.
Carson Fulmer
PIT
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227.
Brady Aiken
CLE
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228.
Erick Fedde
WSH
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229.
Yadier Alvarez
LAD
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230.
Eric Lauer
MIL
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231.
Riley Pint
COL
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232.
Sean Reid-Foley
TOR
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233.
Adam Plutko
CLE
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234.
Jorge Guzman
MIA
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235.
Jakob Junis
KC
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236.
Braxton Garrett
MIA
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237.
Chance Adams
KC
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238.
Franklin Perez
DET
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239.
J.B. Bukauskas
ARI
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240.
Nick Neidert
MIA
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241.
Anthony Kay
TOR
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242.
Jon Duplantier
ARI
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243.
Ranger Suarez
PHI
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244.
Dennis Santana
LAD
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245.
Eric Pardinho
TOR
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246.
Logan Allen
CLE
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247.
Matt Liberatore
STL
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248.
Peter Lambert
COL
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249.
Ryan Weathers
SD
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250.
Taylor Clarke
ARI
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251.
Trent Thornton
TOR
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252.
Cole Winn
TEX
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253.
Dereck Rodriguez
COL
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254.
Patrick Sandoval
LAA
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255.
Devin Smeltzer
MIN
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256.
Josiah Gray
LAD
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257.
Mick Abel
PHI
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258.
Simeon Woods-Richardson
TOR
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259.
Asa Lacy
KC
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