Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Jose Ramirez
CLE
Ramirez continues to be one of fantasy baseball's most bankable commodities, reliably stuffing the stat sheet. His fire-hydrant physique belies impressive speed; he swiped 27 bags last year, including 18 after the All-Star Break. The power numbers are stable. The batting average has been less predictable, but it's probably a good sign that he managed to bat .266 last year despite a .256 BABIP. His supporting cast isn't great, but it wasn't great last year either, and he still scored 111 runs and had 103 RBI. Invest with confidence.
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2.
Rafael Devers
BOS
Devers hit a career-high 38 HRs in 2021, and the peripherals say there's more where that came from. He was north of the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. Devers doesn't take a lot of walks, but he drives the ball to all fields with authority and should provide a plus batting average. He doesn't run much, but with this sort of hitting profile, that's a minor complaint. He plays in a great hitter's park and has a strong supporting cast. Devers is building an impressive body of work, and he's still only 25. This is a rock-solid investment.
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3.
Manny Machado
SD
It's a shame you don't get points for defense in fantasy baseball, as that would bolster Machado's falling stock. The former perennial top-10 selection is now going in the late second or early third round. Machado will turn 30 this year, and some positive regression seems to be in order. He's still a five-category contributor, and in a loaded Padres lineup, 80/25/80 with 10 SBs should be on the table. But expecting Machado to return to the 35 HR level would be downright delusional.
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4.
Austin Riley
ATL
Riley's value swings wildly depending on whether you play in an OBP league or a BA league. In the former, he's a four category stud. In the latter, he's a slightly overvalued three category asset. The young slugger should continue to get better, but reaching last year's ceiling may not be realistic. Kim Kardashian has a better chance of winning an Oscar for Best Actress than Riley does of equaling his 2021 second-half .397 BABIP. That said, while you don't want to reach for him based on his RBI numbers last year, the 3B position isn't as deep as usual, so Riley isn't a bad pick in the fifth or sixth round.
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5.
Kris Bryant
COL
He hasn't turned into the superstar we thought he was going to become, but he's still got power and will still knock in runs, and now he'll be doing his mashing at Coors Field. Bryant might not have been worth a top-100 selection if he landed in a bad spot, but going to the Rockies gives him a significant value boost.
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6.
Nolan Arenado
STL
If only fantasy baseball awarded points for spectacular defensive plays. Alas, you're stuck relying only on Arenado's bat. That ain't half bad - but it's no longer worth overpaying for. In his first season outside of Colorado, the highlight-reel third baseman showed that he can still rake. But as anticipated, his BA, OBP and OPS all dropped. Now on the wrong side of 30, Arenado is realistically a 2.5-category guy. He'll help you in HR and RBI, and he won't hurt you in runs, but let someone else in your league jump on him early based on name recognition. You can get 80 percent of his production from other third basemen three to four rounds later than Arenado is expected to go.
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7.
Wander Franco
TB
The Rays' wunderkind signed an 11-year, $182 million contract in November and now simply has to go about the business of becoming the superstar everyone expects him to become. Franco scored 53 runs and had 39 RBI in only 70 games last season. He also displayed impressive plate patience and remarkable contact skills as a 20-year-old rookie. He's not a speed merchant, and the power might take time to develop, but Franco should score a lot of runs, drive in a lot of runs and produce something close to a .300 batting average.
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8.
Adalberto Mondesi
KC
If only we could transfer this skill set to a more durable body. Mondesi is a stolen base machine with some surprising pop in his bat, but he hasn't played in more than 102 games or made more than 443 plate appearances in any season, and he's played more than 75 games only once. Leg and foot injuries limited him to only 35 games last year, yet Mondesi still managed to swipe 15 bags and belt six home runs. He strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and has a .249 career batting average, but his contributions in the counting categories (especially steals) more than make up for it. This is all about risk tolerance, and you're obligated to bake some missed games into Mondesi's price.
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9.
Alex Bregman
HOU
After his monster 2019 season (.296, 41 HRs, 112 RBI), Bregman's last two campaigns have been disappointing. Quad and hamstring issues limited him to .348 ABs last season, and he batted .270 with 12 HRs, 55 RBI and 54 runs. Uninspiring Statcast numbers suggest that another 40 HR season isn't in the cards. Bregman is a career .281 hitter, however, and he'll make worthwhile contributions in RBI and runs. Just don't pay for the Bregman of 2018-2019.
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10.
Anthony Rendon
LAA
A medley of injuries limited Rendon to 58 games and 249 plate appearances in 2021. He batted over .300 in each of his last three seasons with the Nationals, but Rendon's BA slipped to .286 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and bottomed out at a career-low .240 last year. When he's at his best, Rendon is a choosy hitter who racks up extra-base hits and makes significant contributions in every category except stolen bases. He's slightly past prime age, but we should still expect a bounce-back season from Rendon, and he's very affordable in drafts.
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11.
Justin Turner
LAD
Turner is entering his age-37 season and saw some mild decline last year, but he also tied his career-high with 151 games played and popped 27 home runs. His walk and strikeout rates largely held, as did his quality of contact. With the addition of the DH in the National League, and with the Dodgers only adding to their elite lineup, Turner should have enough juice left in the tank to put together another productive season. Considering the weakness of the third base position this year, Turner makes an excellent mid-round target with a mitigated health risk in light of the DH.
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12.
Yoan Moncada
CWS
We've got a "best shape of his life" alert with Moncada, who has been vocal about his offseason training habits. Talk of 30 stolen bases have leaked out and considering the weakness of the third base position, Moncada's ADP has slowly begun to rise. But he's never stolen more than 12 bases in a season and is in the 67th percentile for sprint speed. Stolen bases are the least of Moncada's problems anyway, as he's hit just 20 homers and batted .253 combined over the last two seasons (196 games). His walk rate is still elite and there should be a ton of run and RBI opportunities again in the Chicago lineup. But until we actually see Moncada get back to the 2019 version of himself, don't bother reaching for him.
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13.
Matt Chapman
TOR
Chapman get a massive upgrade moving from Oakland to Toronto, both in terms of home park and surrounding lineup. He's coming off an incredible disappointing year in which he hit only .210, but it's worth remembering that he had major surgery the prior offseason. As we saw with Buster Posey, players often take a full season to recover, so it's a good bet that you can write Chapman's 2021 off to his recovery. Even so, he hit 27 home runs last year, so if he can just get his strikeout rate back down to the 23% range he had shown in his career rather than the 33% range he's had the last two seasons, he could be in for a monstrous year.
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14.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu seems like the poster child for the effect of the juiced ball. After drastically increasing his home run power over the previous few seasons, he hit just 10 home runs last year and his slugging percentage dropped to .362. LeMahieu had offseason surgery to repair a hernia, so perhaps his injury was bothering him longer than he let on and is responsible for his down year. But it's equally possible that at 33 years old, and without the juiced ball, LeMahieu just isn't as valuable a fantasy commodity as he used to be. Chances are, at the very least, that the days of a .300-plus batting average are gone, and now with likely low-teens home run potential, LeMahieu is more of a late-round pick whose main value is his position flexibility.
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15.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
PIT
Hayes had major buzz heading into 2021 after he batted .376 with a 1.124 OPS in 24 games in 2020. But his season went south nearly from the start, after he missed significant time with a wrist injury and continued to battle hand and wrist issues even after he returned. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel percentage all dropped significantly, and it's fair to write if fantasy managers want to write all that off to his injury issues. But it's equally fair to acknowledge that Hayes's strong 2020 season was out of line with his minor-league career, and that fantasy managers were putting way too much stock into an incredibly small sample. The good news is that, unlike last year, fantasy managers won't need to pay a high price for Hayes, and in the wasteland (in terms of fantasy production) that is the third base position, Hayes makes a passable option at the hot corner in deeper leagues. Just make sure you draft some depth behind him in case he struggles again.
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16.
Chris Taylor
LAD
Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.
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17.
Josh Donaldson
NYY
Spoiler alert with Donaldson - he's going to hit the ball really, really hard, he's going to walk a ton, andhe' going to miss time with an injury or two, probably involving his calf. The move to the Yankees can only help his fantasy outlook but, as with the Twins, the Yankees' DH spot will be filled most days, so Donaldson will need to play the field. His quality of contact has remained remarkably consistent despite his advanced age, so even in his age-36 season, fantasy managers shouldn't worry much about a decline. Book the production when he plays, but have a fill-in ready.
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18.
Ryan McMahon
COL
McMahon showed that his poor performance during the shortened 2020 season was an aberration, as his 2021 statline was nearly identical to the one he put up in 2019. His batting average (.254), OBP (.331) and slugging percentage (.449) were all within four points of his 2019 mark and his counting stats were similarly comparable. There's a chance that McMahon makes some gains this season - he's entering his "magical" age-27 season and he cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% last year. But, given how closely his last two full seasons have mirrored one another, you can likely bank on a .250-ish average, 24 home runs, 145 combined runs and RBI, and five steals. Draft him with those numbers in mind.
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19.
Ty France
SEA
Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.
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20.
Eugenio Suarez
SEA
Suarez has continued to hit for power but his batting average has fallen off a cliff the last two seasons to just .199. Other than the fact that he had shoulder surgery just before the 2020 season, there's nothing really to explain. Almost all of his underlying metrics and quality of contact data look nearly identical to how they have his whole career, and he's just entering his age-30 season. But whatever the reason, Suarez is now a batting average drain, and he'll likely hit fewer home runs after being traded to Seattle. There's still plenty of value there, as he should still be a plus contributor in homers and RBI. But hope for a .230 batting avaerage as his ceiling at this point.
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21.
Eduardo Escobar
NYM
Escobar rarely gets much love from fantasy managers, probably because everything under the hood doesn't usually support his numbers. He almost always outperforms his expected statistics, and he offers no help in batting average or steals. But he does have plenty of pop (53 homers over his last two full seasons, at least 21 in each of his last four), and he's been a plus in runs scored and RBI despite playing on mediocre teams. He'll now be the everyday third baseman for the Mets, so managers can enjoy his dual eligibility, and his placement in the middle of a strong lineup should keep all his counting stats afloat. There's not a ton of upside with Escobar, but there's a high floor.
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22.
Luis Urias
MIL
Urias exploded last year, putting up 23 homers with 149 combined runs and RBI. Just to put that into perspective, Urias's high in home runs before last year was four, and his best combined runs and RBI total was 51. Most of his production was backed up by the underlying data, as his hard-contact rates exploded. He'd be a prime sleeper but he's battling a quad injury that is going to shut him down until early April at least, so knock him down your draft board a bit with the injury news. Performance-wise, however, last year looks legitimate.
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23.
Jeimer Candelario
DET
Candelario is not an exciting player. He has little speed and probsbly won't surpass 20 home runs. But he won't hurt you in batting average and will give you passable runs scored and RBI totals batting in an improved Tigers offense. With third base being so shallow, Candelario is a player you can draft late who can fill in on off-days or be a bench player. It's never fun to draft low-upside players late, but Candelario is one of the few guys to take a shot on there.
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24.
Bobby Dalbec
BOS
Dalbec has a ton of power, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average and maximum exit velocity. But he also struck out often, 34.4% of the time, which led to a middling .240 batting average despite him hitting the ball hard consistently. That's likely what we'll see again in his second year, though with more job security and perhaps a minor step up. Dalbec is one of a handful of 25-homer bats going very late in drafts, but he has enough upside to hit 35 without too much needing to go right. That makes him the ideal bench player or corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues.
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25.
Spencer Torkelson
DET
Torkelson looks poised to start the year in the majors with the Tigers at first base, and there is a lot of reason to be excited after he blazed through three levels of the minors last year. He likely won't hit for much average, but he's got an exceptional eye at the plate (his lowest walk rate at any level last was 13%) and he hit 30 home runs in 121 games total in 2021. He's just 22 years old so don't be surprised if he struggles at first. But particularly in keeper formats, and even in redraft leagues, the upside is so strong that he should be a late-round target everywhere.
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26.
Alec Bohm
PHI
Bohm was dreadful last year, but there's a pretty plausible theory as to what went wrong. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball in the first half of the year, ranking near the top of the league in quality of contact but just not seeing the results. Eventually, that got into his head, and he expanded the zone and watched his strikeout rate climb significantly. By the end of the year, Bohm was a total mess, swinging at pitches out of the zone, taking pitches in the zone, and watching his already poor numbers decline. That's not the type of thing that usually derails a hitter for multiple seasons, so hopefully he can get back to doing what made him a strong prospect- being patient and hitting the ball hard. He's worth a flier late in your drafts, just don't go into the season relying on him.
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27.
Gio Urshela
MIN
Urshela was moved to Minnesota this offseason where he'll man third base and likely bat in the bottom third of the order. When healthy, he's a high-average, 20-homer bat who will chip in everywhere but steals. But his margin for error is fairly thin given how mediocre his quality of contact is and with his poor walk rate. Given that his surrounding llineup and home park took a pretty drastic step down, he's really just an AL-only option at this point.
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28.
Patrick Wisdom
CHC
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29.
Cavan Biggio
TOR
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30.
Jonathan Villar
SEA
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31.
Josh Rojas
ARI
Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.
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32.
Evan Longoria
SF
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33.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
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34.
Luis Arraez
MIN
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35.
Joey Wendle
MIA
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36.
Abraham Toro
SEA
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37.
Josh Harrison
CWS
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38.
Brian Anderson
MIA
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39.
Yandy Diaz
TB
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40.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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41.
Ha-Seong Kim
SD
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42.
Hunter Dozier
KC
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43.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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44.
Jose Miranda
MIN
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45.
J.D. Davis
SF
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46.
Kevin Smith
OAK
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47.
Rougned Odor
BAL
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48.
Tommy La Stella
SF
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49.
Dylan Moore
SEA
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50.
Tyler Wade
NYY
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51.
Andy Ibanez
TEX
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52.
Leury Garcia
CWS
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53.
Diego Castillo
PIT
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54.
Carter Kieboom
WSH
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55.
Maikel Franco
WSH
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56.
Triston Casas
BOS
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57.
Santiago Espinal
TOR
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58.
Nolan Gorman
STL
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59.
Josh Jung
TEX
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60.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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61.
Jake Burger
CWS
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62.
Juan Yepez
STL
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63.
Kelvin Gutierrez
BAL
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64.
Jace Peterson
MIL
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65.
Josh VanMeter
PIT
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66.
Drew Ellis
SEA
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67.
Edwin Rios
LAD
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68.
Jon Berti
MIA
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69.
Mark Vientos
NYM
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70.
Matt Duffy
FA
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71.
Nolan Jones
CLE
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72.
Colton Welker
SF
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73.
Asdrubal Cabrera
FA
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74.
Starlin Castro
FA
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75.
Mike Brosseau
MIL
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76.
Rio Ruiz
FA
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77.
Yu Chang
TB
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78.
David Bote
CHC
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79.
Marwin Gonzalez
NYY
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80.
Zach McKinstry
CHC
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81.
Eric Sogard
FA
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82.
Renato Nunez
FA
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83.
Mauricio Dubon
HOU
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84.
Travis Shaw
FA
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85.
Jake Lamb
SEA
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86.
Phil Gosselin
LAA
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87.
Hanser Alberto
LAD
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88.
Johan Camargo
PHI
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89.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
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90.
Hoy Park
PIT
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91.
Matt Duffy
LAA
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92.
Harold Castro
DET
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93.
Sherten Apostel
TEX
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94.
Charlie Culberson
TEX
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95.
Joshua Fuentes
FA
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96.
Jack Mayfield
LAA
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97.
Luis Rengifo
LAA
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98.
Joe Panik
FA
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99.
Brock Holt
FA
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100.
Jose Rojas
LAA
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101.
Emmanuel Rivera
ARI
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102.
Isaac Paredes
TB
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103.
Rylan Bannon
LAD
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104.
Yonny Hernandez
ARI
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105.
Luis Guillorme
NYM
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106.
Romy Gonzalez
CWS
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107.
Ronald Torreyes
FA
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108.
Wilmer Difo
ARI
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109.
Jose Peraza
BOS
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110.
Jordy Mercer
FA
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111.
Ernie Clement
CLE
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112.
Elehuris Montero
COL
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113.
Isan Diaz
SF
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114.
Willians Astudillo
MIA
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115.
Jordan Groshans
MIA
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116.
Brandon Drury
SD
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117.
Jason Vosler
SF
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118.
Pablo Reyes
MIL
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119.
Alejo Lopez
CIN
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120.
Daniel Robertson
PHI
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121.
Phillip Evans
NYY
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122.
Ildemaro Vargas
WSH
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123.
Taylor Motter
ATL
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124.
Brendon Davis
DET
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125.
Jake Noll
WSH
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126.
Jedd Gyorko
FA
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127.
Yolmer Sanchez
BOS
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128.
Brendan Donovan
STL
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129.
Kevin Padlo
PIT
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130.
Robel Garcia
FA
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131.
Anderson Tejeda
FA
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132.
Freddy Galvis
FA
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133.
Ivan Castillo
KC
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134.
Todd Frazier
FA
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135.
Ryan Goins
ATL
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136.
Erik Gonzalez
MIA
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137.
Andrew Bechtold
MIN
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138.
Domingo Leyba
SD
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139.
Eddy Alvarez
LAD
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140.
Jordan Zimmerman
FA
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141.
Tyler Ladendorf
FA
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142.
Ryan Dorow
TEX
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143.
Matt Davidson
OAK
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144.
Ryon Healy
FA
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145.
Austin Martin
MIN
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146.
Brett Baty
NYM
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147.
Buddy Kennedy
ARI
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