Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Jose Ramirez
CLE
If you throw out the first half of his 2019 season, then Ramirez has been a dominant force in fantasy baseball for the last five years. He was as good as ever in 2020, setting career highs in slugging percentage (.607), wOBA (.415) and wRC+ (164). To the extent there are question marks about Ramirez, they're about his supporting cast, as the Indians' lineup should be one of the weaker ones in the league now that they have jettisoned Francisco Lindor. But a hitter's lineup is often overvalued by fantasy managers, particularly with a player like Ramirez who adds in value with stolen bases. He comes with little to no risk, and should be the first third baseman drafted, and a first round pick, in all formats.
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2.
Manny Machado
SD
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
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3.
Nolan Arenado
COL
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4.
Anthony Rendon
LAA
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5.
Alex Bregman
HOU
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6.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
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7.
Rafael Devers
BOS
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8.
Eugenio Suarez
CIN
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9.
Yoan Moncada
CWS
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10.
Max Muncy
LAD
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11.
Matt Chapman
OAK
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12.
Kris Bryant
CHC
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13.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
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14.
Jeff McNeil
NYM
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
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15.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
PIT
Hayes had an outstanding 24-game run with the Pirates last year, hitting five home runs with an 1.124 OPS and a 55.4% hard-hit rate, which would have ranked seventh best in the majors had he had enough plate appearances. But that was far more offensve production than he had shown in the minors, where he totaled just a .752 OPS with 25 home runs in 461 career games. Hayes makes a ton of contact and should bat near the top of the Pirates order this year, so even if he regresses some offensively, he should still find enough counting stats to be useful. But don't expect 2020's power levels.
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16.
Alec Bohm
PHI
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17.
Gio Urshela
NYY
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18.
Tommy Edman
STL
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19.
Wil Myers
SD
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20.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
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21.
Justin Turner
FA
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22.
J.D. Davis
NYM
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23.
Josh Donaldson
MIN
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24.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
Mountcastle followed up a successful minor-league career with a strong 35-game stint in the majors last year. Not only did he bat .333 with an .878 OPS and a 139 wRC+, but he also walked 7.9% of the time, far above what he showed in the minors. The batting average is unsustainable - he was a .295 hitter in the minors and last year he relied on a .398 BABIP despite sub-par average exit velocity and a middling line drive rate. But playing in Camden Yards should certainly keep his production high, and batting in the middle of the Orioles lineup should lead to enough RBI chances to make him a rosterable, if not startable, fantasy option.
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25.
Dylan Moore
SEA
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26.
David Fletcher
LAA
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27.
Nick Solak
TEX
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28.
Miguel Sano
MIN
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29.
Ian Happ
CHC
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30.
Brian Anderson
MIA
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31.
Austin Riley
ATL
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32.
Kyle Seager
SEA
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33.
Yuli Gurriel
HOU
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34.
Tommy La Stella
FA
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35.
Ryan McMahon
COL
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36.
Hunter Dozier
KC
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37.
Jon Berti
MIA
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38.
Eduardo Escobar
ARI
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39.
Jeimer Candelario
DET
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40.
Bobby Dalbec
BOS
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41.
Joey Wendle
TB
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42.
Starlin Castro
WSH
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43.
Scott Kingery
PHI
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44.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
TEX
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45.
Renato Nunez
FA
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46.
Colin Moran
PIT
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47.
Ty France
SEA
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48.
Luis Arraez
MIN
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49.
Maikel Franco
FA
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50.
Edwin Rios
LAD
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51.
Evan Longoria
SF
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52.
Hanser Alberto
FA
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53.
Danny Santana
FA
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54.
Michael Chavis
BOS
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55.
Josh Lowe
TB
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56.
Mike Brosseau
TB
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57.
Yandy Diaz
TB
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58.
Matt Carpenter
STL
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59.
Travis Shaw
FA
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60.
Josh Fuentes
COL
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61.
Rio Ruiz
BAL
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62.
Jedd Gyorko
FA
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63.
Nolan Jones
CLE
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64.
Asdrubal Cabrera
FA
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65.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
TB
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66.
Miguel Andujar
NYY
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67.
Isaac Paredes
DET
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68.
Todd Frazier
FA
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69.
Chad Pinder
OAK
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70.
Marwin Gonzalez
FA
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71.
David Bote
CHC
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72.
Brad Miller
FA
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73.
Triston Casas
BOS
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74.
Nolan Gorman
STL
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