Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Jose Ramirez
CLE
If you throw out the first half of his 2019 season, then Ramirez has been a dominant force in fantasy baseball for the last five years. He was as good as ever in 2020, setting career highs in slugging percentage (.607), wOBA (.415) and wRC+ (164). To the extent there are question marks about Ramirez, they're about his supporting cast, as Cleveland's lineup should be one of the weaker ones in the league now that the team has jettisoned Francisco Lindor. But a hitter's lineup is often overvalued by fantasy managers, particularly with a player like Ramirez who adds in value with stolen bases. He comes with little to no risk, and should be the first third baseman drafted, and a first round pick, in all formats.
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2.
Manny Machado
SD
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
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3.
Anthony Rendon
LAA
Rendon's stock feels like it has dropped dramatically, but there's really nothing in the small sample size of the 2020 season that should alter your outlook much on him. Yes, he didn't hit the ball as hard consistently, but he walked more than ever, maintained his elite strikeout rate, and still put up a roughly 30-homer, 100-RBI pace. Still just 31 years old, there should be plenty left in the tank this season for the veteran, and he should once again be a strong four-category contributor, with a small bit of speed thrown in for good measure.
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4.
Rafael Devers
BOS
Devers' 2020 season was . . . fine. That's about the best you can say about it. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and he increased his barrel rate significantly. His counting stat paces from his breakout 2019 season went down, but not dramatically so (other than his batting average), and fantasy managers never felt like Devers was a drain on their teams. But, at the same time, his already poor walk rate declined, his strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, and he didn't even attempt a single stolen base. Devers is just 24 years old, so there is plenty of upside for him. The safest course of action is to build in some natural regression from Devers' strong 2019 season, and pencil him in for roughly 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. That still makes him an asset to any fantasy team.
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5.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu will return to the Yankees on a six-year deal, and that is great news for fantasy managers. Since he's been New York, he's provided elite all-around production, most notably in batting average, where he has batted .336. He's blossomed into a 25-home run hitter with plenty of runs and RBI, and a handful of steals that chip in with the category. Add to that LeMahieu's multi-position eligibility and he is a huge asset to every fantasy team. With nothing in his profile to suggest a skills decline, he should be drafted before the third round is out in every fantasy league.
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6.
Alex Bregman
HOU
2020 was just a bad season for Bregman, plain and simple. He missed time with a hamstring injury, and generally regressed in every major statistical category. Considering that Bregman will be just 27 years old on Opening Day and had batted .291 with 72 home runs combined over the previous two seasons, fantasy managers can probably just throw out most of what they saw from him in 2020. He'll continue to be an upper echelon option at third base and considering his strong walk and strikeout rates, an even better one in points leagues. He's been battling a hamstring issue for most of camp, but as of now, he doesn't look like he'll miss much, if any, time, so draft him accordingly.
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7.
Nolan Arenado
STL
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
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8.
Eugenio Suarez
CIN
Suarez's power numbers were again strong in last year's shortened season, but his batting average plummeted to just .202. He hit the ball as hard as ever, however, and ranked in the top 9% of the league in average exit velocity. Suarez's BABIP was just .214 (he has a .310 mark), and although he hit more fly balls than usual, there's nothing to suggest that his batting average should have fallen off a cliff. In other words, there's plenty of reason to expect Suarez to hit closer to his .261 career batting average this year. Add to that his potential for 40 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI, and he'll likely be a value in this year's draft.
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9.
Yoan Moncada
CWS
If you're looking for reasons to throw out a player's 2020 season, Moncada's battle with COVID-19 offers you just that for him. His quality of contact dropped like a stone, he struck out a ton, and he went back to his old passive approach, rather than the aggressive one that had led to such gains in 2019. Moncada detailed his struggles after suffering from the virus, so it's a legitimate excuse and surely led to his struggles. Moncada is likely to hit about 25 home runs, and help you everywhere except perhaps batting average (though his .315 mark in 2019 shows his upside). Although he won't be a superstar, at a third base position that gets shallow quicker than expected, he makes a fine option you can wait on but who will offer plenty of production.
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10.
Matt Chapman
OAK
Chapman lost a significant chunk of his 2020 season to a torn labrum in his hip, and had surgery to repair the injury. It seems obvious that the injury was bothering him all year, as evidenced by his massive jump in strikeout rate (35.5%) and corresponding drop in walk rate. There's little reason to give Chapman's 2020 season any credence given what he'd shown the previous two years. Expect him to bounce back to the 30-homer bat with decent all-around production that we had come to expect, and enjoy the discount that his numbers from last year provide.
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11.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
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12.
Max Muncy
LAD
Muncy's batting average dropped to a ridiculously low .192 last year, and there were two culprits. The first is that his line drive rate plummeted from 23.5% to just 13.8%, leading to far more ground balls. The second was that he simply didn't hit the ball as hard. His hard hit rate and average exit velocity fell, and his HR/FB rate dropped seven points. Muncy dealt with finger and elbow injuries, so those may account for his poor season, but even then he was on pace to reach the 30-homer plateau for a third straight year. Muncy has position eligibility galore, and at the weak second base position, so continue to draft him in the middle rounds as a cheap source of power who adds value thanks to his ability to play all around the infield for your fantasy team.
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13.
Cavan Biggio
TOR
Biggio doesn't hit the ball particularly well and is passive almost to a fault. He swung at just 36% of the pitches he saw last year, third-fewest in MLB, and that represents a continued trend. That passivity leads to increased strikeouts, but also plenty of walks, as Biggio took a free pass 15.5% of the time last season, which ranked in the top 8 percent of baseball. Despite not making consistently strong contact, Biggio has hit 24 home runs in his 159 major league games, and he's added on 107 runs and 20 steals. Those numbers play extremely well for fantasy, particularly at the weak second base position. Biggio is likely to add third base eligibility with the Blue Jays' addition of Marcus Semien, which should only add to his value, and he makes a fine pick if you can nab him in the fifth round or so where his ADP generally lands.
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14.
Kris Bryant
SF
Bryant had a terrible 2020 season, but it seems like fantasy managers are forgetting how consistent he's been. Over the last four seasons, he has a 162-game pace of a .278 average, 29 home runs, 112 run scored, 80 RBI, and five steals. His quality of contact was awful last season, but hard contact has never really been his calling card anyway, and he battled back and wrist injuries. Bryant doesn't deserve a mulligan entirely for last season, but give it minimal weight in your evaluation.
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15.
Alec Bohm
PHI
Bohm's major league debut was a success, in that he batted a robust .338 with an .881 OPS. But despite hitting the ball hard consistently (his 10.3% barrel rate and 46.8% hard hit percentage was well above the major league average), he hit just four home runs, and his xBA was just .286. The problem is he simply pounded the ball into the ground, putting up a 53.2% ground ball rate and just 4.8 degrees of launch angle. Bohm never showed a ton of power in the minors, but he's just entering his age-25 season, so there's always room for growth. But for redraft leagues, buy him as a high-average bat with unexceptional power.
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16.
Jeff McNeil
NYM
Much of McNeil's 2020 season looked similar to his year in 2019. He hit over .300, rarely struck out, and got on base plenty. But the power gains that we saw in 2019 vanished, as he hit just four home runs over 52 games. His barrel rate (2.5%) and hard-hit percentage (26.5%) were some of the worst in the league, and he didn't even offer the token stolen base that he had chipped in during previous seasons. This is a scenario where McNeil's value to any particular fantasy manager will depend on the weight he or she gives to the shortened 2020 season. Given that McNeil never hit the ball particularly hard anyway, though, a good bet is to assume he at least returns to the high teens in home runs, slightly below his 2019 pace. With his strong average and multi-position eligibility, that makes McNeil an asset in the middle rounds.
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17.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
PIT
Hayes had an outstanding 24-game run with the Pirates last year, hitting five home runs with an 1.124 OPS and a 55.4% hard-hit rate, which would have ranked seventh best in the majors had he had enough plate appearances. But that was far more offensve production than he had shown in the minors, where he totaled just a .752 OPS with 25 home runs in 461 career games. Hayes makes a ton of contact and should bat near the top of the Pirates order this year, so even if he regresses some offensively, he should still find enough counting stats to be useful. But don't expect 2020's power levels.
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18.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
Because Moustakas was a hitter who played for the Reds, he had a poor 2020 season (seriously, look at their collective numbers). He walked more, struck out more, and lost some points on his batting average, but overall, there was little different in Moustakas's profile. He continued to hit for power and make quality contact. He may not score many runs given his lack of speed and surrounding cast, and the batting average isn't going to help you. But he's got plenty of power for a second-base eligible player, and there's no sign that his production is ready to fall off a cliff.
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19.
Gio Urshela
NYY
Urshela isn't the most exciting player, and perhaps that's why he largely gets ignored by fantasy managers despite his quality production. Over his last two seasons (175 games), he's slashed .310/.358/.523 with 27 home runs and 104 RBI. He won't contribute in steals, but he's an incredibly safe source of batting average, particularly because of his excellent strikeout rate, and he should have plenty of opportunities to contribute counting stats. The only question was his health, but he seems fully recovered from his elbow injury. Draft him with confidence.
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20.
Josh Donaldson
MIN
Donaldson again missed significant time with a calf strain last year, and was limited to just 28 games. He hit for power and walked plenty when he was in the lineup, and both his average exit velocity and hard hit rate were at or near his career highs. In other words, there doesn't seem to be much of a decline in his performance over recent seasons. Now in his age-35 season, it sounds like the Twins are going to give Donaldson plenty of rest this year in an effort to keep him healthy. Bank on the power, but assume a maximum of 130 games or so. There's a lot of value in that so long as you factor it in appropriately.
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21.
Justin Turner
LAD
Turner signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers, and it's a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, he remains a key cog in an incredibly strong lineup where he's had plenty of success for several years. On the other, he's almost certainly going to see a downtick in his playing time given his age and the presence of Edwin Rios. Turner is still a batting average asset, has shown little decline in his batted ball data, and almost always produces when he's in the lineup. But he's much more valuable in daily transaction leagues where you can swap him in and out of the lineup.
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22.
Tommy Edman
STL
After a highly successful 2019 season in which he hit 11 home runs and stole 15 bases in 92 games, Edman's numbers regressed in nearly every meaningful way last year. His batting average slipped from .304 to just .250, he hit just five home runs, and he went 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Edman was a bit unlucky last year, as his xBA and xSLG outperformed his actual numbers. And despite his down year on the basepaths, he was in the 95th percentile in sprint speed. He's likely to lead off for the Cardinals this year, and should be good for double digits in both home runs and steals, with plenty of runs scored. Considering he has multi-position eligibility, he should be drafted before the double-digit rounds.
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23.
Ian Happ
CHC
Happ has always made consistently hard contact, but his strikeout rate was simply untenable, hovering around 34% in his first two seasons. But he has cut that down to a more manageable 26% over the last two years, and he's batted .260 with 23 home runs and 58 RBI over 115 games in that span. Happ has some speed even if he hasn't shown it recently, and he'll likely bat leadoff for the Cubs, who may need to manufacture runs more than in previous years. The average probably won't help you much, but he should contribute in four categories at a relatively inexpensive price.
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24.
Austin Riley
ATL
Riley made some notable gains last year after he looked like he might fall out of fantasy-relevance entirely with the way he closed his 2019 season. He essentially traded off some power for contact, as his swing percentage dropped, his contact rate increased, and he improved on both his walk and strikeout rates. Although there was some question as to whether the Braves would add another third baseman in free agency, it appears they're content to roll with Riley to begin the year. That should make him a cheap source of power for fantasy, one whose batting average (.262 xBA last year) won't hurt you too badly.
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25.
Jean Segura
PHI
Segura's strikeout rate ballooned last season to above 20%, though his walk rate also took a corresponding jump. But other than that, there wasn't much notable or exciting about his season. He ran a bit less than usual in the shortened year, but he still ranked in the 87th percentile in sprint speed, suggesting that the stolen base potential is still there if he wants to take it. The bigger issue with Segura as he enters his age-31 season is that there's almost no upside, as he'll bat near the bottom of the order and has established a fairly firm ceiling in his career. He's a borderline startable middle infielder in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
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26.
Miguel Sano
MIN
Sano has always had one of the worst strikeout rates in the majors, but his 43.9% mark in 2020 was awful even by his standards. That's always the risk with Sano - that his strikeout rate is going to bring his batting average down to close to .200, where he'll almost single-handedly tank you in that category. The upside of course is that he absolutely crushes the ball, as evident by the fact that he was no worse than second in baseball in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate last year. Sano's contract with the Twins shows they're committed to him, so he should hopefully be beyond concerns of getting sent down to the minors if he struggles. That puts Sano in the high-power, low-average bucket of sluggers, but one who goes much later in drafts than others who will provide similar production.
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27.
Andres Gimenez
CLE
Gimenez was one of the main pieces in the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco trade, and he looks like he'll be the starting shortstop for Cleveland on Opening Day. There's not a ton of power in his bat, but he has a ton of speed. He ranked in the 94th percentile in sprint speed last season, and stole eight bases in 49 games in 2020 and 28 in 117 games in Triple-A the year before. His ADP is rising as his job security grows, but it's worth it for the steals he will provide.
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28.
Dylan Moore
SEA
Moore hit .255 with eight home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 38 games last year. Despite not having an abundance of speed, Moore's stolen base prowess is real, as he stole 96 bases over 447 minor league games at a 77% clip and ranked in the 71st percentile in sprint speed last year. And he cut his strikeout rate to a high but manageable 27% last year, and his barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity were all well above average. But Moore has struggled against righties for much of his time in the majors, and despite his success last year, is unlikely to have a long leash with Shed Long waiting in the wings. Moore has upside and multi-position eligibility to go along with his power and speed. Just have a backup plan ready to go.
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29.
Kyle Seager
SEA
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30.
Nick Solak
TEX
Solak hasn't shown a ton of power in the majors so far (just seven home runs in 91 career games), but he makes consistently strong contact and always had pop in the minors. His more than reasonable strikeout rate should generally keep his batting average in check, and his stolen base acuity (nine stolen bases in the majors, 91% in sprint speed) makes him a potential five-category player. Add to that multi-position eligibility, especially at the thin second base position, and he's an excellent mid-to-late round draft pick that should fill up the stat sheet without costing you as much as his numbers say he should.
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31.
Eduardo Escobar
MIL
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32.
Brian Anderson
MIA
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33.
J.D. Davis
NYM
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34.
Hunter Dozier
KC
Dozier is almost entirely off the fantasy radar this year, but that feels like an overreaction to 2020. Yes, his poor performance last year makes his breakout 2019 performance seem like an outlier, but really, it seems like 2020, rather than 2019, should be discounted. Dozier's quality of contact was awful last year, but it was out of character for him over the previous two seasons, and was more likely the result of him having tested positive for COVID-19 rather than from a sudden loss of skills. The Royals' lineup is sneaky deep, and Dozier will start at third base this season, giving him eligibility at three positions. Considering he's free in drafts, there is every reason to scoop him up with a late-round pick.
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35.
David Fletcher
LAA
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36.
Jeimer Candelario
DET
Candelario isn't going to wow you with his numbers, but he'll bat in the middle of the Tigers' order, has eligibility at first and third base, and improved his quality of contact greatly last year. You can try to write off his 2020 production as a product of the shortened season, but given his solid 2018 campaign, it looks more like 2019, and not 2020, was the outlier. Candelario probably tops out at 20 homers, but he should provide a decent average and be a fine bench player for most fantasy leagues.
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37.
Ryan McMahon
COL
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38.
Yuli Gurriel
HOU
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39.
Willi Castro
DET
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40.
Tommy La Stella
SF
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41.
Ty France
SEA
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42.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
TEX
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43.
Bobby Dalbec
BOS
If you like Miguel Sano, you'll absolutely love Dalbec. He crushes the ball routinely (it was a small sample, but he had a 22%(!) barrel rate last year in 23 games), strikes out a ton (42.4% rate last year), and is equally likely to look like the best player in baseball at times as he is to look like the worst. He'll be the everyday first baseman for the Red Sox this year which means plenty of counting stats with perhaps 30 home runs if he stays healthy the whole year. Just have batting average help elsewhere if you draft him, as he'll almost certainly provide negative value in that category.
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44.
Jon Berti
MIA
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45.
Starlin Castro
FA
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46.
Maikel Franco
ATL
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47.
Joey Wendle
TB
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48.
Evan Longoria
SF
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49.
Colin Moran
PIT
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50.
Jonathan India
CIN
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51.
Luis Arraez
MIN
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52.
Donovan Solano
SF
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53.
Yandy Diaz
TB
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54.
Scott Kingery
PHI
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55.
Renato Nunez
BAL
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56.
Luis Urias
MIL
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57.
Edwin Rios
LAD
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58.
Carter Kieboom
WSH
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59.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
PIT
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60.
Nico Hoerner
CHC
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61.
David Bote
CHC
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62.
Asdrubal Cabrera
CIN
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63.
Spencer Torkelson
DET
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64.
Chad Pinder
OAK
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65.
Travis Shaw
BOS
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66.
Mike Brosseau
TB
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67.
Hanser Alberto
KC
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68.
Matt Carpenter
STL
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69.
Marwin Gonzalez
HOU
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70.
Rio Ruiz
COL
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71.
Brad Miller
PHI
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72.
Isaac Paredes
DET
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73.
Wander Franco
FA
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74.
Miguel Andujar
NYY
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75.
Abraham Toro
SEA
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76.
Jake Lamb
TOR
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77.
Yolmer Sanchez
ATL
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78.
Aledmys Diaz
HOU
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79.
Matt Beaty
LAD
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80.
Eric Sogard
FA
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81.
Erik Gonzalez
PIT
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82.
Josh Harrison
OAK
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83.
Todd Frazier
PIT
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84.
Pablo Sandoval
FA
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85.
Phillip Evans
PIT
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86.
Mike Freeman
CIN
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87.
Ryan Zimmerman
WSH
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88.
Josh Lowe
TB
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89.
Danny Santana
BOS
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90.
Austin Martin
MIN
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91.
Jordan Groshans
TOR
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92.
Triston Casas
BOS
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93.
Nolan Jones
CLE
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94.
Jose Rojas
LAA
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95.
Willians Astudillo
MIN
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96.
Nolan Gorman
STL
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97.
Johan Camargo
ATL
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98.
Ehire Adrianza
ATL
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99.
Kody Hoese
LAD
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100.
Josh Jung
TEX
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101.
Kyle Farmer
CIN
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102.
Brett Baty
NYM
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103.
Christian Arroyo
BOS
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104.
Jedd Gyorko
FA
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105.
Cristian Santana
LAD
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106.
Brock Holt
TEX
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107.
Miguel Hiraldo
TOR
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108.
Yairo Munoz
BOS
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109.
Daniel Robertson
MIL
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110.
Luis Toribio
SF
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111.
Chris Owings
COL
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112.
Miguel Vargas
LAD
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113.
Logan Forsythe
MIL
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114.
Joe Panik
MIA
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115.
Brandon Drury
NYM
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116.
Ildemaro Vargas
ARI
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117.
Zack Cozart
FA
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118.
Harold Castro
DET
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119.
Rylan Bannon
BAL
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120.
Colton Welker
COL
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121.
Vimael Machin
OAK
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122.
Neil Walker
FA
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123.
Hernan Perez
FA
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124.
Bret Boswell
COL
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125.
Yu Chang
CLE
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126.
Alex Blandino
CIN
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127.
Jace Peterson
MIL
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128.
Wyatt Mathisen
SF
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129.
Tim Beckham
CWS
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130.
Matt Duffy
CHC
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131.
Greg Garcia
FA
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132.
Andy Ibanez
TEX
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133.
Erick Mejia
KC
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134.
Sheldon Neuse
LAD
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135.
Tucupita Marcano
PIT
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136.
Matt Davidson
LAD
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137.
Sergio Alcantara
CHC
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138.
Kevin Padlo
SEA
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139.
JT Riddle
MIN
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140.
Jack Mayfield
LAA
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141.
Matt Thaiss
LAA
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142.
Jason Vosler
SF
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143.
Kevin Kramer
FA
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144.
Eduardo Nunez
FA
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145.
Kelvin Gutierrez
BAL
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146.
Elehuris Montero
COL
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147.
Sean Rodriguez
FA
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148.
Zach Green
MIL
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149.
Evan Mendoza
STL
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150.
Dustin Peterson
MIL
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151.
Tyler Nevin
BAL
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152.
Cheslor Cuthbert
NYM
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153.
Ryan Goins
CWS
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154.
Nick Tanielu
FA
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155.
Pedro Florimon
SD
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156.
Patrick Kivlehan
SD
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157.
Marco Hernandez
CWS
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158.
Drew Ward
DET
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159.
Adrian Sanchez
WSH
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160.
Daniel Descalso
FA
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161.
Gordon Beckham
FA
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162.
Yadiel Rivera
HOU
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163.
Lucas Erceg
MIL
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164.
Jose Rondon
STL
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