Fantasy Baseball Player Notes
2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Notes
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1.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
The young slugger put it all together in 2021, tying for the MLB lead in HRs and leading the AL in runs, OBP and slugging percentage in his age-22 season. Statcast numbers and other peripherals fully supported the gaudy surface stats. Guerrero alleviated concerns that he hit the ball on the ground too much by cutting his ground-ball rate from 55% to 44%. Vladito doesn't steal bases, but he gives you everything else. And unlike his famous dad, he's actually willing to take a walk. Guerrero deserves to be taken in the top half of the first round.
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2.
Freddie Freeman
LAD
It seems odd that Freeman has topped 100 RBI only twice in his career, but he should have little problem getting there now that he'll be batting third for the Dodgers, with Mookie Betts and Trea Turner setting the table for him. Freeman has batted at least .295 every year since 2016. He's not a pure slugger, but his line-drive power should produce 25-35 home runs. He'll even throw in a handful of stolen bases. Now that he's landed in a strong lineup, invest with confidence.
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3.
Matt Olson
ATL
The Braves' new slugger posted career highs across the board last season - 39 HRs, 111, RBI, 101 runs and a .271 BA - and as he enters his age-28 season, he should be in his prime. The elite power is here to stay, and after batting .195 in the shortened 2020 season, Olson made huge strides in his contact rate (80%) last year and batted a very respectable .271. Going from Oakland to the Braves' friendlier ballpark could spike his HR total. Olson is a worthy power anchor.
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4.
Pete Alonso
NYM
A classic power-hitting first baseman, Alonso is most likely going to deliver 40 HR, 100 RBI and should cross the plate close to 100 times. He's a plug-and-play option. Some managers like to punt on first base until later in the draft, but if you want to secure your power numbers late in the fourth round or early in the fifth, Alonso is a rock-solid choice.
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5.
Paul Goldschmidt
STL
Eventually, Father Time will catch up with the Cardinals slugger. But not this year. If your rival fantasy managers fade Goldy because of his age, take advantage. He can ho-hum his way to 95/30/100/.300, with five to eight stolen bases as a bonus. Goldschmidt will be taken after Austin Riley in most drafts but could easily end up with better numbers at the end of the year.
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6.
Jose Abreu
HOU
The White Sox slugger continues to be one of the most reliable investments in fantasy baseball. He hit 30 homers last year, with 117 RBI and 86 runs. In seven full MLB seasons, Abreu has produced 30 or more HRs five times and 100 or more RBI six times. His .261 batting average last season was the lowest of his career, but he batted .280 from July 1 on. His exit velocities and hard-hit percentage say that he still crushes baseballs with authority. If you get an age discount, pounce.
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7.
Austin Riley
ATL
Riley's value swings wildly depending on whether you play in an OBP league or a BA league. In the former, he's a four category stud. In the latter, he's a slightly overvalued three category asset. The young slugger should continue to get better, but reaching last year's ceiling may not be realistic. Kim Kardashian has a better chance of winning an Oscar for Best Actress than Riley does of equaling his 2021 second-half .397 BABIP. That said, while you don't want to reach for him based on his RBI numbers last year, the 3B position isn't as deep as usual, so Riley isn't a bad pick in the fifth or sixth round.
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8.
Kris Bryant
COL
He hasn't turned into the superstar we thought he was going to become, but he's still got power and will still knock in runs, and now he'll be doing his mashing at Coors Field. Bryant might not have been worth a top-100 selection if he landed in a bad spot, but going to the Rockies gives him a significant value boost.
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9.
Max Muncy
LAD
Muncy had a fantastic 2021 season with 36 homers, making it his third straight full season in which he reached the 35-homer plateau. But he tore the UCL in his elbow late in the year and missed the playoffs, and the fantasy baseball world has been holding its collective breath hoping that he'll be able to be ready for Opening Day this year. All signs - and Dave Roberts's comments - point to Muncy being available, and the addition of the DH to the National League can only help his cause. But although a torn UCL isn't nearly the same injury for a position player that it is for a pitcher, Muncy will still likely see some limitations and need some time off this year. Expect his usual excellent production, but knock off 10-20 games from his usual output.
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10.
Rhys Hoskins
PHI
Hoskins traded off some walks for some additional power last year, as he consistently made harder contact than he ever had before in his career. His 91.2 MPH average exit velocity and 112.2 MPH maximum exit velocity were both career highs, and his 17% barrel rate ranked in the top 6% of baseball. The only real problem for Hoskins, aside from his .240-ish batting average, is his difficulty staying healthy. He was limited to just 107 games last year because of an abdominal injury and he missed about a third of 2020's shortened season. The talent is there - he'll hit plenty of home runs and he'll likely bat in front of Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. Just bank on closer to 120 games rather than a full season.
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11.
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Schwarber was really, really good in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in barrel rate, average and maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and wOBA. He also batted a career-best .266, probably because he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before. He'll now bat near or at the top of a strong Phillies lineup in a park that should only accentuate Schwarber's raw power. If Schwarber can hold the gains he saw last year - being more selective, hitting more line drives, etc. - then he should be in for perhaps his best season to date.
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12.
C.J. Cron
COL
Sometimes, things work out just the way fantasy managers expect them to. Cron became a prime sleeper when he signed with Colorado, and fantasy managers hoped that he could maintain his strong power numbers while letting Coors Field positively impact his batting average. That's exactly what happened, as Cron hit 28 home runs with a career-best .281 average. He also upped his walk rate significantly to 11%, which resulted in both a career-best OBP (.375) and run scored total (70). It's unclear if his gains in plate discipline are sustainable, but it's hard to find too many reasons to doubt his performance so long as he remains in Colorado. He's a fine low-end first base option or a prime target for your corner infield spot.
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13.
J.T. Realmuto
PHI
Some of us still want to think of the 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the best catcher in baseball. But he's entering his age-31 season and is likely on the downside of his career. Catchers tend to fall off precipitously after age 30, so Realmuto will have to stave off Father Time. Double-digit steals from the catcher slot are always a bonus for fantasy managers, but Realmuto is no longer a catcher for whom you should reach. The Phillies' lineup is full of holes and won't provide much support outside of Bryce Harper. However, the universal DH rule adds to Realmuto's value. He'll get more at bats and more rest for his legs. He's still a great option at catcher. Just don't reach.
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14.
Jared Walsh
LAA
Walsh was outstanding in his rookie year, blasting 29 home runs and batting .277. His expected batting average (.257) and slugging percentage (.436) lagged significantly behind his actual numbers, but his 114.8 MPH maximum exit velocity was in the top six percent of MLB and suggests his power is real. Walsh couldn't hit a lick against lefties last year, as he batted just .170 against them with a .565 OPS. But, even if he loses time against them, his success against righties should be more than enough to keep him relevant. Buy him as a 30-homer bat but take at least 10 to 20 points off his batting average from last year.
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15.
Joey Votto
CIN
You don't often see a rebound season like Votto put up last year, and it was glorious. After three years of minimal power, Votto exploded for 36 home runs and a .563 slugging percentage. His Statcast page is a joy to look at - he was among he leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, exit velocity - and all greatly improved from his last few seasons. Yes, he struck out at a career-worst clip nd his batting average isn't ever going to approach .300 again, but that's just nitpicking. The bigger worry for Votto at this point is the total lack of protection in the Reds lineup, as Cincinnati has traded the vast majority of its decent offensive pieces. But that might prevent a buying opportunity for fantasy managers if Votto's ADP slips too far.
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16.
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.
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17.
Josh Bell
CLE
Bell had a horrid .464 OPS in April, likely because his timing was off after missing time because of a COVID-19 diagnosis. But once he found his footing, he was everything that Nationals hoped he would be. He batted .277 with an .887 OPS in the second half, and even played plenty of outfield so Washington could keep his bat in the lineup even with Ryan Zimmerman playing well. His walk percentage and strikeout rate largely returned to their pre-2020 levels, and he got better and better as the season went along. With Zimmerman now retired and the DH in the National League, Bell's bat should remain in the lineup nearly every day, and the presence of Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz should offer him plenty of RBI opportunities. He's not a fantasy superstar, but he's a capable starter at first base for your fantasy team.
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18.
Jake Cronenworth
SD
Cronenworth quietly had a very solid season for the Padres, totaling 21 home runs and exactly an .800 OPS. He's not an exciting player - he doesn't have a ton of power or speed and his batting average won't wow you. But he'll bat second for the Padres this year and so you can expect him to challenge the 94 runs scored he totaled last season. He also struck out just 14% of the time last year, which ranked in the top 10% in MLB, so he's unlikely to endure prolonged slumps, and consistent production goes further in today's fantasy landscape than it used to. Add to that his multi-position eligibility and Cronenworth makes an ideal part of any fantasy team, particularly one with daily lineup changes.
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19.
Anthony Rizzo
NYY
Rizzo re-signed with the Yankees this offseason, and that's pretty much as good a landing spot as fantasy managers could have hoped for. His counting stats will benefit with the strong lineup and short porch in right, and he still has productive seasons ahead of him. But Rizzo is a different player now than he was in his heyday, and the days of 30 home runs, double-digit steals, or batting averages in the high .200s are over. He can be useful for fantasy managers, but he's a low-end first baseman or decent corner infielder in mixed leagues at this point in his career. Nothing more.
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20.
DJ LeMahieu
NYY
LeMahieu seems like the poster child for the effect of the juiced ball. After drastically increasing his home run power over the previous few seasons, he hit just 10 home runs last year and his slugging percentage dropped to .362. LeMahieu had offseason surgery to repair a hernia, so perhaps his injury was bothering him longer than he let on and is responsible for his down year. But it's equally possible that at 33 years old, and without the juiced ball, LeMahieu just isn't as valuable a fantasy commodity as he used to be. Chances are, at the very least, that the days of a .300-plus batting average are gone, and now with likely low-teens home run potential, LeMahieu is more of a late-round pick whose main value is his position flexibility.
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21.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
TOR
Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.
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22.
Trey Mancini
HOU
Mancini was one of the best baseball stories of 2021 as he returned from missing the 2020 season due to cancer to put up a productive year. He dipped significantly from his outstanding 2019 numbers (.291/.364/.535), but his underlying metrics largely held firm. The truth is that Mancini was just a bit lucky in 2019, as he outperformed his expected numbers in nearly every category, and was comparably unlucky in 2021, underperforming those same numbers by similar amounts. His true version likely lies somewhere in between, and that's not a bad thing. Expect an improvement from most of his numbers last year, but bank on 25 homers, rather than the 34 he totaled in 2019, particularly with the new dimensions in left field in Camden Yards.
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23.
Ty France
SEA
Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.
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24.
Alex Kirilloff
MIN
Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.
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25.
Yuli Gurriel
FA
Gurriel returned to being the player he was prior to 2019's massive power outburst - a player who will help you in batting average and hit 15-20 homers with counting stats helped by batting in a strong Houston lineup. He should easily do that again this year, despite entering his age-38 season. Gurriel doesn't strike out much, but he just doesn't offer the qualitty of contact necessary to be a fantasy asset absent an aberration like his 2019 season. Book the usual - a near .300 average with 15 home runs - and stick him in your corner infield spot in deeper leagues. Just give up dreams of more.
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26.
Brandon Belt
FA
As he has often in his career, Belt missed time with various injuries last year, including a fractured thumb. But he crushed his career-high in home runs with 29, and in just 97 games. He's back with the Giants after accepting a qualifying offer and even with last year's numbers and the change in park factors in recent years, San Francisco was hardly the best place for Belt to end up. You can't deny the production last year and there really wasn't much different about what Belt did to make you think it's unsustainable. But at 34 years old, expecting an improvement in health is likely a bad idea. Draft him with 25 homers in mind, and anything else is gravy.
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27.
Luke Voit
FA
Voit played in just 68 games last year after battling through various injuries, and his overall game suffered. He hit just 11 home runs and batted .239, while seeing his strikeout rate jump to a career-worst 30.7%. He still made solid contact overall, upping his hard-hit rate to 52.2% and his barrel rate to 15.8%, but none of that was enough to overcome the increase in whiffs. He'll get a fresh start in San Diego, where he'll likely be the everyday DH unless the team trades Eric Hosmer. Once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns, there should be RBI opportunities aplenty, but even until then, Voit should provide plenty of power. If he can cut his strikeout rate back down to his career levels and see a corresponding increase in batting average, he should be a fantasy asset.
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28.
Yasmani Grandal
CWS
Grandal played in only 93 games last year because of a knee injury but still hit 23 home runs with 122 combined runs and RBI. His walk rate (23.2%) was comically high, but it obviously didn't impact any of his other numbers, and his strikeout rate was the lowest it has been in years. Don't extrapolate his home run numbers - he's not going to his 40 - but mid-20s with solid runs and RBI totals are in the bank. That's gold for a catcher.
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29.
Frank Schwindel
FA
Schwindel had a decent minor-league track record but hadn't done much in the majors untill he went on a huge hot streak with the Cubs over the last two months of the season, hitting 13 home runs with a 1.002 OPS over 56 games. He's not nearly as good as his hot streak suggests, which most fantasy managers surely know, but he did bat .286 in the minors, so he's not likely to be overmatched. The Cubs actually have some decent offensive depth this year but with the addition of the DH, Schwindel should have plenty of rope. If he can just avoid totally falling off a cliff, and his track record suggests he will, then a 20-homer, 80-RBI season is the most likely outcome.But if you think you're drafting the 2021 version of Schwindel, you're almost certainly mistaken.
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30.
Nathaniel Lowe
TEX
Lowe had plenty of exciting moments last year, especially early in the season, and ultimately ended up with a respectable 18 home runs and eight steals, along with a .264 batting average. He'll have significantly more help this year in the Texas lineup with the additions of Corey Seager, Mitch Garver, and Marcus Semien, so he can likely top the 147 combined runs and RBI he finished with last year. And if his above average exit velocity and hard hit rate can manifest itself into more power, it could be a big year for Lowe.
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31.
Jonathan Schoop
DET
Schoop is rarely talked about during prep season, but he has hit at least 21 home runs in each of his last five full seasons. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but that level of consistency in power from a second baseman is unusual and impressive. As usual, Schop was again among the league leaders in maximum exit velocity (117.1 MPH, a career high), and his hard hit rate was nearly five percentage points higher than his career average. The Tigers' lineup should be stronger this year with the addition of Javier Baez, and considering that Schoop is just 30 years old and has shown no signs of decline, there's every reason to expect his boring but stealthily productive numbers once again.
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32.
Spencer Torkelson
DET
Torkelson looks poised to start the year in the majors with the Tigers at first base, and there is a lot of reason to be excited after he blazed through three levels of the minors last year. He likely won't hit for much average, but he's got an exceptional eye at the plate (his lowest walk rate at any level last was 13%) and he hit 30 home runs in 121 games total in 2021. He's just 22 years old so don't be surprised if he struggles at first. But particularly in keeper formats, and even in redraft leagues, the upside is so strong that he should be a late-round target everywhere.
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33.
Bobby Dalbec
BOS
Dalbec has a ton of power, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average and maximum exit velocity. But he also struck out often, 34.4% of the time, which led to a middling .240 batting average despite him hitting the ball hard consistently. That's likely what we'll see again in his second year, though with more job security and perhaps a minor step up. Dalbec is one of a handful of 25-homer bats going very late in drafts, but he has enough upside to hit 35 without too much needing to go right. That makes him the ideal bench player or corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues.
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34.
Eduardo Escobar
NYM
Escobar rarely gets much love from fantasy managers, probably because everything under the hood doesn't usually support his numbers. He almost always outperforms his expected statistics, and he offers no help in batting average or steals. But he does have plenty of pop (53 homers over his last two full seasons, at least 21 in each of his last four), and he's been a plus in runs scored and RBI despite playing on mediocre teams. He'll now be the everyday third baseman for the Mets, so managers can enjoy his dual eligibility, and his placement in the middle of a strong lineup should keep all his counting stats afloat. There's not a ton of upside with Escobar, but there's a high floor.
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35.
Miguel Sano
FA
Sano reportedly lost 25 pounds this offseason and is in, wait for it, the best shape of his life. Hopefully that means he can stay healthy and productive because, simply put, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game. He is always in the top three percent of the league in hard hit rate and exit velocity, and 50 homers could potentially be in reach if he put it all together. But he struck out 34.4% of the time last year and that was the best single-season mark in that category of his career. There is potential, as there always is with Sano, but you've got to be in really good shape in batting average before you take on the risk with him.
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36.
Jesus Aguilar
FA
Aguilar probably would have gotten to 100 RBI last year had he not dealt with knee inflammation at the end of last season. But other than that category, it just feels like he leaves a lot on the table. Despite prodigious power, last year was only the second in his career where he topped 20 home runs. He'll benefit from the addition of the DH this year, but the bottom line is that between the Marlins' lackluster lineup and Aguilar's lack of speed, he's going to offer little in many categories, including runs scored and stolen bases. He's a fine filler if you need RBI, but don't expect all that much production elsewhere given his home park and surrounding cast.
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37.
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
With Tucker Barnhart out of town, Stephenson will get his shot as the primary catcher for the Reds. He was extremely productive last year with a .797 OPS and 10 home runs in just 102 games, all while batting .286. Don't expect him to continue with his pace, as catchers often get overexposed when they take on more playing time. But he'll bat in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup, and when you're looking for a backstop who won't cost you anything but should give you fairly reliable production for the position, Stephenson is your guy.
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38.
Andrew Vaughn
CWS
Vaughn's rookie season was a little unfair, as he was thrust into the outfield despite little experience there when Eloy Jimenez suffered a serious injury in the spring. His 15 home runs in 127 games as a rookie showed his potential, but his 21.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than projected. He'll likely see at-bats from several positions this year, as he plays outfield, first base, and DH, and it's likely that an advanced college bat such as his will take a step forward this year. Expect a good 20% increase on all his numbers across the board, which should make him startable, but not quite a fantasy superstar.
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39.
Rowdy Tellez
MIL
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40.
Eric Hosmer
BOS
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41.
Patrick Wisdom
CHC
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42.
Dominic Smith
FA
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43.
Mike Moustakas
CIN
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44.
Bobby Bradley
FA
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45.
Christian Walker
ARI
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46.
Carlos Santana
PIT
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47.
Connor Joe
COL
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48.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
SF
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49.
Yandy Diaz
TB
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50.
Keston Hiura
MIL
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51.
Pavin Smith
ARI
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52.
Garrett Cooper
MIA
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53.
Hunter Dozier
KC
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54.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
TOR
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55.
Wilmer Flores
SF
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56.
Darin Ruf
NYM
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57.
James McCann
NYM
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58.
Gavin Sheets
CWS
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59.
Seth Beer
ARI
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60.
Brad Miller
TEX
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61.
Miguel Cabrera
DET
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62.
Jurickson Profar
FA
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63.
Luis Torrens
FA
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64.
Triston Casas
BOS
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65.
Colin Moran
FA
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66.
Ji-Man Choi
PIT
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67.
Andy Ibanez
DET
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68.
Josh Naylor
CLE
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69.
Michael Chavis
PIT
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70.
Jordan Luplow
FA
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71.
Matt Vierling
PHI
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72.
Albert Pujols
FA
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73.
Matt Beaty
FA
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74.
Juan Yepez
STL
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75.
Lewin Diaz
BAL
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76.
Jose Marmolejos
FA
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77.
Aledmys Diaz
OAK
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78.
Eric Thames
FA
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79.
Edwin Rios
FA
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80.
Rio Ruiz
FA
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81.
Mitch Moreland
FA
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82.
Darick Hall
PHI
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83.
Jerry Sands
FA
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84.
Jake Bauers
NYY
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85.
Nick Pratto
KC
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86.
Daniel Vogelbach
NYM
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87.
Matt Duffy
FA
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88.
Jace Peterson
OAK
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89.
Evan White
SEA
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90.
Mike Brosseau
MIL
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91.
Asdrubal Cabrera
FA
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92.
Yu Chang
FA
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93.
Danny Santana
FA
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94.
Marwin Gonzalez
FA
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95.
D.J. Stewart
FA
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96.
Sam Huff
TEX
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97.
Ryan O'Hearn
KC
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98.
Matt Thaiss
LAA
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99.
Johan Camargo
FA
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100.
Travis Shaw
FA
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101.
Phil Gosselin
FA
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102.
Sherten Apostel
FA
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103.
Harold Castro
FA
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104.
Owen Miller
CLE
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105.
Tomas Telis
LAD
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106.
Matt Carpenter
FA
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107.
Joe Panik
FA
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108.
Ronald Guzman
FA
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109.
Mason Martin
PIT
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110.
Renato Nunez
FA
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111.
Franchy Cordero
BAL
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112.
Taylor Jones
SF
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113.
Billy McKinney
OAK
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114.
Willians Astudillo
FA
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115.
John Nogowski
WSH
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116.
Justin Smoak
FA
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117.
Ryan McBroom
FA
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118.
Greg Bird
FA
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119.
Phillip Evans
NYY
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120.
Alex Blandino
FA
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121.
Wyatt Mathisen
FA
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122.
Joshua Fuentes
FA
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123.
Jedd Gyorko
FA
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124.
Jonathan Aranda
TB
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125.
Jake Noll
WSH
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126.
Todd Frazier
FA
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127.
Erik Gonzalez
MIA
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128.
Mike Ford
FA
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129.
Josh Ockimey
PHI
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130.
Tyler White
MIN
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131.
Matt Davidson
FA
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132.
Ryon Healy
FA
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133.
Sam Travis
FA
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134.
Francisco Pena
FA
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