Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 PPR Draft Rankings
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12.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - (at JAC)
This time last year, I was much higher on Taylor than the consensus. I like Taylor, but did everyone forget about what happened the first 10 weeks of the season? Taylor was the RB19 and David Montgomery was the RB20. Taylor finished the year as the RB6 while Montgomery was the RB4. Many will talk about Montgomery's schedule as the reason for his production, hence why he's ranked at RB20 in ECR right now, but are they ignoring Taylor's schedule? He played against the Texans TWICE, Packers, Raiders, Jaguars, and the Steelers (who were decimated by injuries in that game). That's a large reason for his jump in production. I still like Taylor, just not nearly as much as the consensus.
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107.
Nyheim Hines
RB - (at JAC)
He finished as the RB20 in half PPR formats last year. Crazy, right? While that's firm RB2 territory, he finished as an RB2 or better in just 43.8 percent of his games, tied with Chase Edmonds. He clearly has a role in this offense, though it's a bit reliant on gamescript, as Jonathan Taylor is the clear early-down back, while Hines is the preferred back in passing situations. If they give Taylor more work in the passing game this year, it's coming at the expense of Hines, and knowing Taylor's ADP, drafters expect that increase for Taylor. Even going back to 2019, Hines was an RB3 or better just 43.8 percent of the time, which is more in line for how you should feel about him in 2021. He's just an emergency flex option.
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112.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - (at JAC)
Despite T.Y. Hilton aging and Parris Campbell missing the entire season, Pittman couldn't break out in his rookie season. While that might be high expectations, the opportunity was there. Philip Rivers turned out to be better than most expected, though Pittman finished with more than 66 yards just once all year, and topped 46 yards just three times. He scored just once, which surely didn't help his year-end totals, but with Campbell back in the mix, he isn't a surefire pick to gain a whole lot of targets. Hilton was re-signed, Zach Pascal out-produced him, and Carson Wentz has traditionally favored his targets over the middle of the field. Pittman should lead this team in touchdowns with his large frame, but he's likely to be a bit too touchdown-dependent to trust as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
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132.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - (at JAC)
It was a painfully slow start to the 2020 season for Hilton, but he finished strong, tallying 27 receptions, 435 yards, and five touchdowns over the final six games of the season where he was the WR8 during that time. Did it take time to develop chemistry with Philip Rivers? If so, are we going to experience a similar slow start in 2021 with Carson Wentz? On top of the chemistry concern, he has to contend with youngsters Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman, who are both another year into their NFL career, and likely ready to take on bigger roles. Hilton's upside feels severely capped, so it's best to treat him as someone you play through bye weeks rather than someone you rely on week-in and week-out.
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138.
Carson Wentz
QB - (at JAC)
We've legitimately seen Wentz perform as a top-five fantasy quarterback in Frank Reich's offense, so this one speaks for itself. The Colts offensive line might be better than the one the Eagles had in those days, though they'll need Eric Fisher healthy as soon as possible. Despite his bad 2020 season, Wentz has posted QB1-type numbers in 44.1 percent of the games in his career, which ranks as the 16th best quarterback over the last 15 years.
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168.
Parris Campbell
WR - (at JAC)
Whenever a receiver gets hurt early in the year, it's easy for drafters to forget about them. Campbell had nine targets, six receptions, and 71 yards in the one game he played last year. Do you know how many times Michael Pittman (who's being drafted as a top-50 wide receiver) can say he hit those numbers? Once. Both former second rounders have a ceiling depending on who Carson Wentz favors, but it's not built into Campbell's price. If Wentz keeps doing what he did in Philadelphia, that's targeting tight ends/slot receivers over the middle of the field, which is primarily where Campbell lines up.
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172.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - (at JAC)
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201.
Marlon Mack
RB - (at JAC)
Mack is going to be a tough one to project in 2021, as he's returning from an Achilles injury, which used to be a career killer. It still might be, and it's not like Mack was lighting the world on fire before he suffered that injury. Jonathan Taylor is the lead back and Nyheim Hines will cap upside as the receiving back, so Mack is arguably just a second-tier handcuff who also has question marks about his health.
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216.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - (at JAC)
Blankenship had a fine rookie season with the Colts, and not just because he spawned a whole bunch of fantastic Halloween costumes with his signature look. He ranked fourth in the NFL in field-goal attempts wit 37 and converted 86.5% of his tries. Along with his 43 extra-point conversation, Blankenship ended the year as the sixth-best kicker in fantasy. Kicking in a dome and for an offense that should again be able to move the ball well but perhaps not score touchdowns at will, Blankenship should be a fine fantasy option once again.
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268.
Jack Doyle
TE - (at JAC)
With Trey Burton no longer on the roster, does Doyle have more appeal in fantasy? Well, yeah. The Colts targeted their tight ends 118 times last year, but dividing that three ways proved to be worthless for fantasy. Those targets should be divided between Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox in 2021, which makes him a bit more attractive, but Alie-Cox is the one with the true breakout potential, whereas Doyle will probably be the higher floor play.
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291.
Zach Pascal
WR - (at JAC)
Pascal has kind of just "hung around" in the fantasy conversatoin over the last two years due to injuries to T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Parris Campbell. He's made the most of his opportunity, totaling at least 600 yards and five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons despite not eclipsing 72 targets. However, going into 2021 with a healthy group of pass catchers, Pascal will only be on the field in 4WR sets, which doesn't work for fantasy.
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328.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - (at JAC)
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344.
Jordan Wilkins
RB - (at JAC)
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490.
Kylen Granson
TE - (at JAC)
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541.
Dezmon Patmon
WR - (at JAC)
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572.
Sam Ehlinger
QB - (at JAC)
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