Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jonathan Taylor was the RB4 in fantasy points per game last year, but his season was a tale of two halves. With Daniel Jones (Weeks 1-13), he was the RB2 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.7 touches and 132.1 total yards. After Jones was out of the lineup (Achilles), Taylor was the RB22 in fantasy points per game with 21.6 touches and 75.4 total yards per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Taylor was 17th in explosive run rate, 28th in missed tackle rate, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones is set to return this season, but the big question for Taylor and the Indy offense is how effective he'll be in 2026 coming off the Achilles injury. Taylor should see plenty of volume this season to return top 15-20 production in fantasy, but if you're drafting him with an RB1 price tag, it's fair to wonder if he can be a top three back this season, with his quarterback's play in question. Last year, Taylor was first in snap share, second in opportunity share, fourth in weighted opportunity, and second in red zone touches. I have more questions about his 2026 outlook than most, but he's still a solid pick in 2026, even with the questions about Jones.

Tyler Warren had a fantastic rookie season as the TE10 in fantasy points per game, but there was plenty of meat left on the bone that should have fantasy gamers excited going into 2026. Warren was the TE4 in expected fantasy points per game last year. Let's begin the convo there. He should naturally see some regression this season. Warren also ranked fifth in red zone targets and eighth in end zone targets last year among tight ends, and he only had four receiving touchdowns to show for it. Warren was excellent last year on a per-route basis. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he was sixth in target share, ninth in receiving yards per game, 18th in yards per route run and first downs per route run, and sixth in first-read-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). The addition of Keenan Allen to this Colts' depth chart does lower the absolute ceiling for Tyler Warren somewhat, as Allen isn't dust and he could play the Michael Pittman Jr. role for the Colts in 2026. Warren is a top-five tight end this season, but his week-to-week volatility increased somewhat with the addition of Keenan Allen.

Josh Downs dealt with a hamstring issue to open last season, which could be a reason why he didn't eclipse a 60% snap share until Week 4. Downs' playing time was a rollercoaster the rest of the season as his snap rate dipped below 60% in five other weeks in the remainder of the season. Originally, Downs was expected to step into an elevated role in 2026 and play more on the perimeter after seeing only 65 routes as a boundary receiver last year (per Fantasy Points Data). With the signing of Keenan Allen, Downs could be on the outside with Allen until Alec Pierce is fully healthy, but once all three are in the lineup, I expect Allen and Downs to rotate slot and perimeter usage. There's also a scenario where Allen falls into the Michael Pittman Jr. role from 2025 in this offense and Downs goes back to a slot-only role. The addition of Allen just widened Downs' range of outcomes for 2026. The splits in the slot versus outside aren't in Downs' favor. Last year, overall, he was 19th in separation score and 55th in route win rate, but when you look at him as a perimeter receiver, he drops to 52nd in separation and 84th in route win rate. On a per-route basis, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 29th in target per route run rate, 66th in yards per route run, and 26th in first downs per route run. Downs is downgraded with the signing of Allen to a late-round flier or matchup-dependent PPR flex play.

Alec Pierce finished as the WR23 in fantasy points per game last year after serving as Indy's field stretcher. He had only a 17.4% target share (19.4 aDOT), but he turned that into 1,003 receiving yards and six scores. Indy was counting on Pierce to step into a heavier workload this season with Michael Pittman Jr. gone, but his ankle issues and the signing of Keenan Allen have complicated things. Pierce had left ankle surgery in March of 2026 and has had a bumpy recovery. He needed a PRP injection in January for the same ankle prior to surgery. Pierce will be slow out of the gate for 2026. That isn't a question. The worry is how long before he's 100% (if at all in 2026). The positives are Pierce are that last season, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 12th in receiving yards per game and 16th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those efficiency marks are awesome, but the lingering concerns about Pierce's health/effectiveness, his target-earning ability, Daniel Jones' health/effectiveness, and this Colts' offense in general push him into the WR3/4 territory in drafts. With the addition of Keenan Allen and Pierce's continued health struggles, I'm avoiding him in drafts this year.

Daniel Jones' monster 2025 season was derailed by a fractured fibula (Week 12) and then a season-ending ruptured Achilles (Week 14). In Weeks 1-10, when Jones was healthy, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt, 15th in adjusted completion rate, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and 17th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he was the QB9 in fantasy points per game, contributing 14.3 rushing yards per game (five rushing touchdowns). Jones did fall off in his final three games played last year, which could be the league catching up to the Colts' offense, or it could also be injuries taking a toll on him. We'll see how well Jones bounces back from the Achilles this year and, with a full offseason to review the Colts' offense, if NFL defenses are better prepared for them. Jones is still a decent QB2/late round flier to take in 2026 for fantasy (especially Superflex formats).

Well, it's official. Keenan Allen is a Colt for the 2026 season. Yes, this is signal related to Alec Pierce's health, but it's also a reflection of the Colts' receiving depth chart. All offseason, this team has been painfully thin at wide receiver behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Allen will immediately help in that department. Last year, Allen proved that he still has gas in the tank on multiple levels as the WR36 in fantasy points per game. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 54th in overall separation, 14th in overall route win rate, 22nd in slot yards per route run (2.09), and 18th in route win rate as a perimeter wide receiver (per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, Allen ran 60.5% of his routes as a perimeter wide receiver while drawing a 20.7% target share with 45.7 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, a 24.4% first-read share, and 0.108 first downs per route run. Allen and Josh Downs could rotate between the slot and the perimeter once Alec Pierce is back on the field. Until Pierce is back, I would expect Allen and Downs to be the receivers on the field in two-wide sets. Allen could easily function in the Michael Pittman Jr. role in this offense from 2025 and put Downs back into a slot-only role once Pierce is back. Allen is a viable WR3/4 this season or a flex play with a lean toward PPR formats.

Indy was the DST7 in fantasy points per game last year and could enter the top five this season if their addition of Sauce Gardner can transform their secondary. Gardner was banged up last year after arriving from New York (limited to four games with Indy). He will be a nice jolt to a secondary that was tenth in interceptions last season. He and Charvarius Ward could form one of the best outside corner tandems in the NFL. Last year, Indy was 16th in pressure rate, but if Laiatu Latu takes another step in 2026, they could be top 12.