Fantasy Football Player Notes

Downs displayed real growth in year two, finishing as the WR28 in fantasy points per game, but it still doesn't tell the entire story of his 2024 season. That end-of-season finish doesn't fully illustrate Downs' upside. In the games that Joe Flacco played at least 80% of the snaps last year, we got a glimpse of it. In those games with Flacco, Downs had a 25.7% target share, 2.38 yards per route run, 66.4 receiving yards per game, a 32.4% first-read share, 0.144 first downs per route run, and 15.5 PPR points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept that pace up in those categories, among wide receivers with at least 50 targets last year, he would have ranked ninth, 15th, 20th, ninth, and fourth as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. With Richardson under center, his numbers dipped with a 21.3% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, 48.3 receiving yards per game, a 26.8% first-read share, 0.076 first downs per route run, and 10.7 PPR points per game (WR44). Downs is a stable WR3/4 who could easily out-kick his ADP in 2025 if Indy gets more consistent quarterback play.

Last year, Michael Pittman dealt with back issues and underwhelming quarterback play, which tanked his season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 85 qualifying receivers, Pittman's market share metrics were perfectly fine, with a 22.6% target share (27th) and 26.6% first-read share (32nd), but his efficiency tanked with 1.82 yards per route run (48th) and 0.079 first downs per route run (53rd, per Fantasy Points Data). His deeper per-route metrics also told a grim tale that should be expected considering his back ailment. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he was 61st in separation and 74th in route win rate after ranking 30th and 33rd in those categories the year prior. Pittman should be a far more effective player this season, but the big worry remains under center. I don't know if Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones can play well enough or have the passing volume for Pittman to revisit his former glory as a perennial top 24 receiver in fantasy points per game, but they could at least make him flex-viable as a WR3/4.

Last year, Alec Pierce was the WR48 in fantasy points per game, operating as Indy's field stretcher. If Anthony Richardson wins the job, maybe he will have some flex-viable weeks in 2025 in deeper leagues, but he's off my draft board if Daniel Jones is the team's starter. Last year, Pierce led 85 qualifying receivers in aDOT (22.2). His role won't be heavily utilized if Jones is starting. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones had the 14th-lowest aDOT and the ninth-lowest deep throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Pierce could luck box into some spike weeks for best ball, but it won't be often enough to make him a redraft-worthy managed lineup pick.

Adonai Mitchell is a dark-horse Year 2 breakout candidate after flashing elite efficiency in limited action as a rookie. He posted a 28% target rate per route run - a mark that would've ranked top-20 among WRs if he had qualified - and consistently created separation in his routes. The challenge in 2025 will be earning more consistent playing time in a crowded Colts receiver room featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and deep threat Alec Pierce. But with his ability to command targets and get open, Mitchell is a strong upside stash who could explode with an expanded role.