Fantasy Football Player Notes

Jaylen Warren was the backup to Rico Dowdle in Week 1. Yes, if you look at the boxscore it doesn't look like that, as Warren finished with 15 touches and 73 total yards (Dowdle had ten touches) as the RB25 for the week, but he only played 35.9% of the snaps, had a 30.2% route share, and he didn't see any red zone rushing attempts. Yes, his fumble in the first quarter could have absolutely played a role in his reduced role for Week 1, but we'll have to see if that's the case if Dowdle massively out-snaps him in Week 2. When he was on the field, Warren was his same explosive self, posting 3.0 yards after contact per attempt. Warren could be an RB2 in Week 2 if he sees a similar workload against the Pats. In Week 1, New England allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt, and they had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Well, the process was right with D.K. Metcalf for Week 1, but it didn't work out. Atlanta heavily utilized single high just like I knew they would (67.4%), and Metcalf saw a 24.4% target share and 39.1% first-read share, but he fell flat with only four receptions and 40 receiving yards (0.98 YPRR). We're going back to the well this week with Metcalf against a Pats defense that utilized single high with 55.6% of their defensive snaps in Week 1. Metcalf could see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez in Week 2. Gonzalez followed Jaxon Smith-Njigba on 65.4% of his routes in Week 1, but Smith-Njigba roasted him, securing six of his nine targets with 103 receiving yards and a score. Metcalf isn't the same tier of receiver as Smith-Njigba, so I don't see him having the same success in Week 2. Last year, Gonzalez followed Emeka Egbuka, Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, and Darius Slayton on at least 60% of their routes, and only Egbuka surpassed 30 receiving yards in his coverage (only Slayton had a receiving touchdown). I expect Metcalf to get featured again this week, but I struggle to see him popping off with a massive week.

I know Rico Dowdle had only ten touches and 21 total yards in Week 1, but he was the starter for Pittsburgh. He led the backfield with a 57.8% snap rate, a 48.8% route share, and the only red zone carry. Yes, Jaylen Warren fumbled in the first quarter of their game against the Falcons, which could have played a part here, but we'll have to see the division of labor in Week 2. Dowdle wasn't amazing on a per-touch basis in Week 1 with only 1.75 yards after contact per attempt and a 13% missed tackle rate, but it's a small sample, and we have a much larger one over the last two seasons that shows Dowdle is #good. Dowdle has solid flex value this week in a good matchup. In Week 1, New England allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt, and they had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Last week, Pat Freiermuth was the clear starting tight end for Pittsburgh with a 70.3% snap rate and 72.1% route share. He finished with a 12.2% target share, five receptions, 46 receiving yards (1.48 YPRR), and an 8.7% first-read share. He had two red zone targets and a score as the TE6 for the week. That lowly first-read share scares me, though. I don't know if Freiermuth will see the same usage in Week 2 from a target share standpoint if he's often not the first read for Aaron Rodgers. The matchup is ok, but not amazing. Last year, New England was 17th in yards per target and 19th in fantasy points per opportunity allowed to tight ends. Freiermuth is a low-end streaming option for Week 2. With Michael Pittman Jr. out, Freiermuth could see a few extra targets this week.