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2018’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

Jul 15, 2019

Justin Tucker is the most accurate Kicker of all time.

August is quickly approaching, and that means so is your fantasy football draft. Now’s the time to start watching film, devouring player news, and living and breathing preseason football for the next two months – or you could let us do that. Our goal at FantasyPros is to make you the most prepared drafter in the room, without making it a full time job. That starts with a reliable set of rankings from people who do spend their summer eating football for every meal. You can build rankings from any set of experts with our Cheat Sheet Creator, and that’s where our accuracy competition comes in. We evaluated the accuracy of the top experts who crafted draft rankings last year, so you know whose advice to follow this year.

We evaluated 154 experts based on their 2018 draft rankings for QB, RB, WR and TE. Each player is weighted equally, but because there are more fantasy-relevant players at RB and WR, those positions have a bigger impact on the overall standings than QB and TE. You can see the full methodology here for how we score accuracy.

Top 10 Draft Experts in 2018

Rank Expert
1 Joseph Dolan – Fantasy Free Agents
2 Andy Behrens – Yahoo
3 Chis Meaney – The Athletic
4 Dylan Chappine – White Wolf Sports
5 Bill Enright – FFChamps
6 Walter Cherepinsky – Walter Football
7 Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Football Empire
8 Kevin English – Draft Sharks
9 Dennis Esser – Coach Esser
10 Staff Rankings – FullTimeFantasy

View the entire field of 154 experts | 2015 – 2018 Multi-Year Results

Notes

  • Congratulations to Joseph Dolan from the Fantasy Free Agents Podcast for being our most accurate draft expert of 2018! Dolan is a fantasy football institution. With a 1st-place finish in 2015, a 2nd-place finish in 2016 and a top-20 finish in 2017, Dolan was already our top expert in that 3-year span, a title he will maintain with another 1st-place finish in 2018. You can view the multi-year draft accuracy results here.
  • Dolan achieved this by ranking as the #2 expert for QB accuracy, and by being the only expert to rank in the top 20% for all four positions (QB, WR, RB and TE). He had several excellent takes at QB, including Matt Ryan as QB7 (+7 vs ECR) and Jared Goff QB8 (+8 vs ECR), as well as QBs who busted, including Matthew Stafford QB14 (-6 vs ECR) and Alex Smith QB24 (-6 vs ECR).
  • While Dolan was the only expert to finish in the top 20% at every position, our 2nd-place finisher, Andy Behrens of Yahoo, was the only one to hit that mark at three positions – WR, TE and a #3 finish at QB. Behrens’ best calls included the under-performing Carson Wentz at QB23 (-11 vs ECR), Adam Humphries WR99 (ECR+27) and leaving WR Devante Parker, who finished as WR102, unranked compared to an ECR of WR50.
  • The rest of our top 5 experts were each the #1 ranker at a position. Chris Meaney of The Athletic was our #3 overall expert, as the #1 ranker for QB and #5 for WR. Dylan Chappine of White Wolf Sports was 4th overall and #1 at RB, and Bill Enright of FFChamps was #5 overall and our #1 ranker for WRs.
  • While he didn’t crack the top 10 overall, Smitty from SleeperU deserves a shout-out for being our most accurate expert for TEs, as well as for several hot takes that worked out, as you’ll see in the section below.

View Multi-Year Draft Accuracy Results from 2015 to 2018 >>

Surprise Players

There were plenty of breakout players last year to far exceeded expectations, sometimes winning leagues for players that drafted them late or picked them up on waivers. Below are the players who performed the best compared to the consensus preseason rank (ECR), and the experts that were most optimistic about them. When there was a tie between multiple experts, the expert with the best overall accuracy is shown.

Player Position Top Expert Finish Expert Rank ECR
Baker Mayfield QB Smitty – SleeperU 17 21 34
Patrick Mahomes QB Thor Akerly – Fantasy Team Advice 1 5 15
Matt Ryan QB Joseph Dolan – Fantasy Free Agents 3 7 14
Phillip Lindsay RB Walter Cherepinsky – Walter Football 11 39 75
Nick Chubb RB Smitty – SleeperU 14 24 52
James Conner RB Bill Dubiel – RotoBaller 7 16 43
James White RB Kevin Roberts – Breaking Football 12 29 46
Tyler Boyd WR Davis Mattek – RotoExperts 16 68 116
Adam Humphries WR Armando Crespo – Eat.Sleep.Fantasy 31 76 126
Calvin Ridley WR Smitty – SleeperU 20 30 60
DeSean Jackson WR KJ – FantasyTeam Advice 26 39 62
Tyler Lockett WR KJ – FantasyTeam Advice 15 18 51
Austin Hooper TE Scott Engel – RotoBaller 9 14 25
Eric Ebron TE Jake Arthur – Colts.com 4 10 19
Jared Cook TE Muntradamus – Beast Dome 5 10 18

 

Busts

On the flip side, there were several players that could have really tanked your season if you spent a lot of draft capital then. While we can’t predict freak injuries like Jimmy Garoppolo’s torn ACL, some players disappointed without an excuse, and some suffered from nagging or recurring injuries that we should have seen coming.

Player Position Top Expert Finish Expert Rank ECR
Matthew Stafford QB Rudy Gamble – Razzball 20 20 8
Tom Brady QB Smitty – SleeperU 13 16 3
LeSean McCoy RB Dylan Chappine – White Wolf Sports 44 26 14
CJ Anderson RB Andrew Seifter – FantasyPros 74 64 44
Alex Collins RB Smitty – SleeperU 38 32 15
Chris Hogan WR Anthony Amico – RotoViz 70 52 22
Marquise Goodwin WR Smitty – SleeperU 71 57 27
Marvin Jones WR Kevin Roberts – Breaking Football 52 45 20
A.J. Green WR Emil Kadlec – Football Diehards 34 12 8
Greg Olsen TE Jeff Zimmerman – FanGraphs 23 24 4
Evan Engram TE Mike Rigz – Gridiron Experts 17 15 7
Rob Gronkowski TE Rich Piazza – Fantasy Shed 10 3 1
Jimmy Graham TE Dominick Petrillo – Fantasy Hot Read 13 13 5

That wraps up our analysis of Draft Accuracy from 2018. Congrats yet again to Joseph Dolan for his continued dominance with his second 1st-place finish and four years straight in the top 20. To view the entire standings, including breakouts by position and IDP, please check out the accuracy section of our site.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
7Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
8Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
9Michael Thomas (NO)WR
10Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
 View all Flex Rankings 
11James Conner (PIT)RB
12DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
13Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
14Marlon Mack (IND)RB
15Mike Evans (TB)WR
16Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
17Julio Jones (ATL)WR
18Damien Williams (KC)RB
19Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
20Brian Hill (ATL)RB
21Devin Singletary (BUF)RB
22Chris Godwin (TB)WR
23Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
24Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
25Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
26Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
27Julian Edelman (NE)WR
28D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
29Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
30Travis Kelce (KC)TE
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
4Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
 View All Rankings 
11Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
12Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
13Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
14Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
15Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
16Chris Paul (OKC)PG
17Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
18Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
21Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
22John Wall (WAS)PG
23Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
24Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
25Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
26Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
27Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
30Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
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