On paper, Week 12 looked like it would be a relatively quiet one. Other than Bucs-Falcons, there wasn’t a single game on the slate with an over/under above 48 points.
But while there was indeed plenty of defensive football, both of the interesting (Cowboys-Patriots) and not-so-interesting (Steelers-Bengals) varieties, there were also seven teams that scored 30+ points, including six that scored 34 or more. I guess that’s why they play the game on grass, not paper.
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Top 5 Surprises
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
Maybe we shouldn’t be completely shocked by Tannehill’s huge four-touchdown performance against the Jaguars. After all, he has accounted for at least two touchdowns in all five of his starts, and the Titans have quietly been one of the league’s better offenses since he replaced Marcus Mariota. Still, we’re talking about a 31-year old quarterback who is coming off of six unremarkable seasons as the signal-caller in Miami, so it’s understandable why many fantasy owners have been reluctant to put him in their fantasy lineups.
A.J. Brown also had a big game against Jacksonville, but this is still not a high-volume passing attack, so it is going to remain tough to trust any Tennessee pass-catcher on a weekly basis. Tannehill’s surging fantasy value lies in his passing efficiency and particularly his rushing ability. He now has at least 37 rushing yards in three straight games and has run for three touchdowns during that span. He’s absolutely put himself in the low-end QB1 discussion, especially considering his favorable schedule from Weeks 14-16 (@OAK, HOU, NO).
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)
With just 36 carries for 167 yards over the Seahawks’ first 10 games, Penny landed on a lot of fantasy league waiver wires during Seattle’s Week 11 bye. There wasn’t much reason to view him as anything more than a Chris Carson handcuff entering a tough Week 12 matchup with the Eagles, but that all changed on Sunday when Penny played just five fewer snaps than Carson. And Penny certainly took advantage of the opportunity, busting off three runs of 20+ yard, including a 58-yard touchdown scamper that proved to be the difference in the game.
Penny’s increased playing time may have had something to do with the fact that Carson committed his seventh fumble of the year. If you’re trying to salt away the game in the fourth quarter, you may not want to hand the ball to a guy who has trouble holding onto it. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have steadfastly stood by Carson in the past — and he’s rewarded them with strong play more often than not — but there is at least a chance that this becomes more of a committee down the stretch. In one of the league’s best rushing offenses, that makes Penny a must-own fantasy asset.
Benny Snell Jr. (RB – PIT)
With James Conner still sidelined with a shoulder injury, it was widely assumed that Jaylen Samuels would continue to dominate touches in the Steelers’ backfield, but that wasn’t the case. Early on, it looked like 7th round rookie Kerrith Whyte might emerge from obscurity, but as the game wore on the Steelers settled on Snell as their primary ball carrier. He ended up with 22 touches for 103 yards, with all but one of them coming on the ground, while Samuels played far fewer snaps and touched the ball just five times.
Given the matchup with Cincinnati and QB Mason Rudolph’s deficiencies, it makes sense that the Steelers came into this game wanting to lean on their running game. Samuels is an adept pass-catcher, but it has become obvious that he is not an effective between-the-tackles rusher, opening the door for Snell. Snell suddenly looks like the better fantasy option for a team that wants to hide it’s quarterback, whether it be Rudolph or Devlin “Duck” Hodges. Neither running back will have much value once Conner returns, but it’s unclear when that might be.
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
In the latest example of the squeaky wheel getting the grease, Boyd complained about his lack of opportunities during the week and then went out and had his second-best fantasy game of the season. Boyd did the bulk of his damage on a single second-quarter drive, where he made a ridiculous one-handed catch for 47 yards and then finished the drive off with a pretty post-up move in the end zone.
Tyler Boyd only NEEDS one hand ✋🏈#PITvsCIN
(Via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/LsfSbIpbeI– PFF (@PFF) November 24, 2019
I must admit that I dropped Boyd in one league following last week’s no-show, and he’s probably worth a pickup if he was let go in yours. Still, while his talent is undeniable, I have my doubts that Boyd will be able to provide steady WR2 fantasy value with Ryan Finley at quarterback. It’s best to view him as a matchup-dependent WR3/flex option unless we see Finley begin to make some real strides as a passer. That said, Boyd will certainly be useable next week against the Jets’ subpar secondary.
Jared Cook (TE – NO)
Cook found himself in the top-five tight ends in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) this week, but that was due to Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry being on bye and Austin Hooper and Evan Engram being injured. I expected big things from Cook once he returned from injury in Week 10, but even I was surprised by how much of a focal point he was in New Orleans’ offense against the Panthers on Sunday. Cook finished with six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, and his day could have been even bigger if he hadn’t had a 42-yard catch negated by a ticky-tack penalty and narrowly missed a second TD.
Tight end has been a position of the haves and the have-nots this year. If you haven’t had Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Henry, Ertz, Andrews, or Engram, you’ve been in trouble. With Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense humming, Cook looks capable of crashing that party and emerging as an every-week TE1 for the stretch run.
Top 5 Disappointments
Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
There were plenty of red flags on Cooper heading into Week 12, including his challenging matchup with Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots, the messy weather conditions in Foxboro, and lingering questions about Cooper’s health. But Cooper practiced in full during the week and entered the week as a top-five fantasy wide receiver this season, so it’s impossible to describe his Week 12 goose egg as anything other than a major disappointment. It’s just the fourth time he’s been shut out of the box score in his five years in the league.
Cooper deserves a pass for all of the reasons mentioned above, but his no-show hurts nonetheless. Unfortunately, this is an example of a player who is too good to bench, even though we could sort of see the rough week coming.
James White (RB – NE)
With Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu out of the lineup, Tom Brady entered Week 12 with even fewer receiving options than usual. It was clear that Julian Edelman would get peppered with targets, and there was an obvious opportunity for N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers to step up, but this sure seemed to set up as a classic James White game. Instead, White finished with three touches for -1 yard. Blech.
The problem for White wasn’t any of the wide receivers, it was one Rex Burkhead. Burkhead didn’t do much himself, but he did pilfer two carries and five passing game targets that normally would have gone to White. White has just 11 catches in the four games since Burkhead returned from injury, and there may not be enough juice in this orange to split between two players. White is due for some positive TD regression after getting lucky in that area last season, but his red zone carries are way down this year, so that is unlikely to save him. He’s a dicey RB3/flex option until further notice.
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL)
Ryan was a fantasy stud early on this season, averaging 335 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game over the first six weeks. But he is averaging just 231 yards and 1.0 touchdown over his last four games. The fact he wasn’t able to throw a single TD against the Buccaneers’ porous secondary on Sunday is particularly alarming. The Falcons’ improved defense seemed like a possible explanation for his reduced production the previous two weeks, but that wasn’t a factor here, as Tampa Bay piled on 35 points against Atlanta. Ryan was just flat-out bad, often short-arming throws. Perhaps the ankle injury he suffered in Week 7 is still affecting him, but whatever the case may be, Ryan is quickly falling from the ranks of every-week QB1s just as the fantasy playoffs approach.
Josh Jacobs (RB – OAK)
Jacobs has been one of the bigger breakout players of the 2019 season, and his career-low 36 total yards in Week 12 marked just the third time all season that he’s failed to produce at least 99 yards from scrimmage. Jacobs wasn’t helped out by Derek Carr, who also had his worst game of the season, but credit is also due to the Jets defense, which has quietly held every running back they faced besides Ezekiel Elliot below 80 rushing yards. But while this game was surely frustrating, now is not the time to panic if you’re a Jacobs owner. He doesn’t have another tough run defense left on his schedule and could lead a lot of fantasy teams to championships when he faces the Jaguars and Chargers in Weeks 15-16.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
For the second time in three weeks, Jones was held below 40 yards from scrimmage, this time against the 49ers’ swarming defense. The fact that Jones struggled to find running room against San Francisco is no great surprise, but the greater concern is his lack of involvement in the passing game. After catching at least four passes in six of the Packers’ first seven games, Jones has just one catch on four targets in the last three games combined. That’s simply not enough passing game volume for a player who has exceeded 13 carries only twice all year.
Jones is a highly-skilled player in an explosive Aaron Rodgers-led offense, so it’s clear that he’s capable of producing huge, week-winning fantasy days. But it’s his usage as a receiver that was adding some much-needed consistency to his game. Jones will remain on the RB1 radar because of his sheer upside, but until we see him catch more passes, there is going to be some boom-or-bust to his game from a fantasy perspective.
Key Stats
Bo Scarbrough had twice as many touches as Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic combined. And Scarbrough looked good doing it, piling up the second-most yards (98) of any Detroit ball carrier in a game this season. But before you get too excited about Scarbrough, keep in mind that he only played 51 percent of the snaps and was facing a below-average Washington run defense.
DJ Moore had 3 TDs on 132 career touches before he caught 2 TDs in Week 12. At just 6’0″ tall, Moore may never be a huge red-zone target, but he was certainly due for some positive touchdown regression and he got in on Sunday. The lack of TDs was the only thing masking the breakout season for Moore, who is fifth among all WRs with 905 receiving yards.
Derrick Henry has over 1,800 total yards and 20 TDs over his last 16 games. Yowsa.
Top Takeaways
Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are trending up as viable QB1 streaming options. Mayfield and Darnold were supposed to succeed against soft defenses this week, and they delivered. Both sophomore QBs showed some major growing pains earlier in the season but look to be taking a step forward in their development here in November. They both have some more great matchups coming up, so don’t be afraid to give them a chance if you don’t have an elite QB1 on your roster.
Jameis Winston is the ultimate fantasy-friendly QB. Winston’s penchant for interceptions surely drives Bucs fans mad, but it doesn’t really bother his fantasy owners, who will gladly take the 300+ passing yards and 2-3 touchdowns he provides every week.
It’s impossible to predict whether it’s going to be a Chris Godwin or Mike Evans week, but it doesn’t really matter in season-long leagues. Choosing between Godwin and Evans is a headache for DFS, but if you own either one in season-long leagues, you just sit back and wait for your guy to explode. After a month of relatively quiet games, it was Godwin’s turn to blow up to the tune of 184 yards and two scores against Atlanta.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
