I had all these grand plans for today now that football is officially over and I can breathe a little. I was going to hit up a pizza buffet, go golfing and perhaps even take a nap. After all, I worked extraordinarily hard as a fantasy football analyst and it was a long season. But then I remembered, I get to start covering fantasy baseball exclusively now! Golf can wait, friends, I want to do a mock draft article so let’s get after it!
Today’s draft will be using standard ESPN roster settings, 12 teams and 5×5 roto scoring (HR, RBI, R, BA, SB, ERA, WHIP, W, K, SV). I’m using the Draft Wizard Simulator (It’s free, people!) to cruise through this bad boy in less than 10 minutes. Ok, actually more like two hours because I’ll be writing as I’m going along, but 10 minutes for you fine folks in your office. Perhaps the best part about Draft Wizard is that you get a totally different experience every time because it is built to mimic what you may see in real life. This is the best practice you can get, and remember, it’s free so you might as well click the link and see if you can beat my score today. Spoiler alert: not gonna happen, folks!
Here are those settings I was talking about. Don’t cheatin’ now.
Actually, go ahead and cheat if you want. You can hit the revert button as many times as you desire and I’m still gonna whoop y’all even despite drawing the 12th pick when I randomized my draft position.
Ohhhhh BABY! Check out this luck! The doofuses in front of me left me with both Trea Turner AND Nolan Arenado. Well, you guys know what I have to do.
Whoa! Both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Adalberto Mondesi went in the second round. I was actually intending on “reaching” for Mondesi at the turn but to no avail. That’s alright, though, there are plenty of quality options available. I’ve got six I’m considering for the two picks and you can see them below:
As you can see, I changed the dropdown to display 2020 projections which is my preferred view. I’ve also removed a few of the top-recommended options in Starling Marte and Ozzie Albies. Don’t get me wrong, I like both, and especially Albies, but if I’m going with another middle infielder, I’m taking the top player left on the board in Baez. This is a very difficult spot for me because I don’t have a pitcher yet and can take two bonafide studs back to back here to power my rotation. But if I pass on my go-to fourth-rounder, Ketel Marte, he definitely won’t make it back to me. Plus, I’ve commonly been “reaching” for the most efficient player on last year’s Astros, George Springer, into the early 3rd round just to make sure I don’t miss on him. Ughh, but wait, Yordan Alvarez‘ pace had him at 51 homers and 146 RBIs while batting .313 last year as a 22-year-old. I’ve gotta do it. And I’m gonna grab Chris Sale on the back end of things then hope two more reliable aces are still available in the fifth and sixth. I’m eyeballing Chris Paddack and Zack Greinke. Fingers crossed.
Dang it. Baez, Ketel, Springer and Giancarlo Stanton all came off the board in the late fourth. This is why auctions are 10x better than snake drafts. I’d love to have all of them at the equivalent auction price but alas, I have to move on. Wait, someone took Luis Robert already!? I thought I was the high man in the industry on him! Ahh well, Paddack is still there so I’m pumped about that. Now for my sixth pick, I’m having a much more difficult time. Tyler Glasnow is unquestionably my favorite player on the board. Y’all know he finished with a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, right? He was great after his injury as well! The dude is a sleeper for the AL Cy Young this year, but check out what the pick predictor screen is telling me.
If I wait 23 picks, Glasnow has a 2 in 3 chance of still being on the board for me. With Paul Goldschmidt still available for me, I’m going to risk it on Glasnow and grab myself 90+ runs, 90+ RBIs and 30+ homers with a quality batting average.
NOOO! Sniped the very pick before me on Glasnow. What a disaster! Should I start the draft over and just write a totally different article? Well, I could, but this is how real life works and I want to give an accurate representation of the disappointment you will surely feel on your draft day too. The worst part about this is that the 7/8 turn is a dead-zone in terms of value. Closers are starting to come off the board (yuck at this stage in the draft), every starting pitcher has major question marks and each of the next 20 hitters are virtually the same. Heck, even J.T. Realmuto is already off the board and I’d have grabbed him in a heartbeat if he was still there. Here are the top players on the board at every position:
As you can see, I’m still feeling bad for myself about missing out on Glasnow. I’m going to use Trevor Bauer to rebound from that heartbreak followed up with fellow starting pitcher, James Paxton. The position is about to get ugly in a hurry and while there are a few late-round options I love, there are many more hitters who fit that description later (hello, J.D. Davis, Scott Kingery, Avisail Garcia and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.)
Wait, did I say rounds 7 and 8 were zombie land? Oh, I meant rounds 9 and 10. Holy moly, it’s rough out there! It is either second-tier closers (who historically collapse at hilarious rates) or a fifth and perhaps sixth starting pitcher (that’s dumb, so no). Let’s start by going with my dude, Eduardo Escobar (what a stud last year!) then I’ll turn it around by grabbing 30 steals and some batting average with the ever-durable Elvis Andrus. Here is my roster through 10 rounds:
Yum. You know, even with missing on Glasnow, I’m feeling pretty great about what we are looking at so far.
It turns out that I should have waited on Andrus! Shortstop still has Jorge Polanco, Corey Seager and Amed Rosario available for me at pick #138! Bad decision, but let’s move on. Before we do, I want to start something that I’ve been doing in every single draft. It’s called the Emilo Pagan clock. Every single round after the 10th, I’ll be monitoring the pick predictor to make sure I’m not going to miss out on him. After him, it will turn to the Brandon Workman clock then the Keone Kela clock. If I can get those three closers in every draft this year, my life is complete. Folks, I’ve got each of them in my top 10 closer rankings this year but they are being drafted at #16 #17 and #32 respectively. I’m actually laughing out loud at the thought of it.
Oh, crud, the Pagan clock is already telling me there is a 41% chance he’ll be gone by my next pick since I have to wait a full two rounds. Should I risk it!? It didn’t work with Glasnow but let’s see if I can talk myself into it.
As you can see, there are a lot of options I like here.
Dinelson Lamet is a favorite of mine but I already have four strong start pitchers and perhaps he will be there for me next round along with Pagan. I’m gonna pull the trigger instead on the potential for 100 homers and 200 RBIs with bash brothers, Miguel Sano and Franmil Reyes. Will it kill my batting average? Maybe, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take for elite power at this stage in the draft.
Lamet didn’t fall to me but that’s ok because Pagan is still there and suddenly the Brandon Workman clock is nearly expired already! I’ve got no problem with adding two of the top relievers from last year to my roster in the 13th and 14th rounds. Let me at least show you who all else I would have considered, though.
Ok, ok, I wasn’t actually considering Kimbrel. I just wanted to list him to show how bizarre it is that people are drafting him three or four rounds ahead of my guys. Crazy! Now, let’s hope Gurriel and Byron Buxton (neither of which played a full year in the stats above) are still waiting for me in 23 picks.
HA! So much for that. The dude right after me took Buxton then 22 picks later took Gurriel right before me. You can’t make this stuff up. What a jerk!
At least my decision is easy this round. There have been 8 catchers off the board and somehow six-time all-star, Salvador Perez, has not been one of them. I’ll add him before pickings at catcher get really slim, then I’ve gotta get my guy, sophomore outfielder, Willie Calhoun, since he is still on the board.
Now into Rounds 17 and 18, there are two great bounceback starting pitchers available in Lance McCullers and Luke Weaver. If I didn’t already have four, I’d grab them both without hesitation. Actually, I’m thinking about doing it anyway, but the Kela clock is already at 35%. Aghhh!
But hilariously, I’m going to pass on Weaver and Kela because I just noticed Avisail is still available and I’m not daring to wait any longer. The Statcast darling is going to terrorize pitchers in Miller Park this year. Garcia and McCullers it is.
Phew, the next round is much easier as Kela is still on the board as is Garcia’s clone, David Peralta. Let’s pull the trigger on both then reassess before my final five picks.
Something I like to do at this stage in drafts is use the strengths and weaknesses tab to determine which direction I should probably go to clean up some categories. In fact, I’m monitoring it throughout the draft process but I live on it in the closing rounds. This is where I sit now with every other team having one more player than me.
Not bad, but just wait a few more rounds and you’ll be laughing at how much I’m able to improve things. I could really use about 35 steals by two players who won’t hurt my batting average. I also need a sixth and perhaps even seventh starter who won’t kill my ratios too bad. Now, I’ve done so many mocks already that I have the exact guys in mind but for the sake of the exercise, I’ll show you how I’d recommend finding that information. Click the statistics tab then I’m selecting 3-year averages in the dropdown.
Ryan Braun, ladies and gentlemen! He may be the most underrated late-round pick in fantasy baseball this season. Oh, and I took Chris Archer too because am an absolute glutton for punishment, apparently.
Dangit, I missed on Wil Myers. It is so hard for me to ignore the fact that he is still young and recently went 58 homers and 48 steals in two consecutive seasons combined. It’s Archer’s fault I missed on him. I just had to do it.
Alright, well this is disgusting so I’m just gonna pass on that second starting pitcher and go a different direction. You look at this and tell me you wouldn’t do the same thing.
Jeff Samardzija isn’t bad, Dylan Bundy has some upside and maybe, just maybe, Jon Lester will recover from his 1.50 WHIP last season. But I’m just not gonna play those games. I’m carving my own path and grabbing strikeouts like a hipster: non-closing relievers. Ryan Pressly and Dellin Betances, welcome to the team.
Alright, last round and I get my guy, Nick Madrigal. 20 steals with a .290 batting average? Remember when I told you I needed 30 steals without killing my batting average? Mission complete. Heck yes. And no, I’m not dreaming, those are the consensus projections across the industry for Madrigal. This rookie is a clone of a young Dustin Pedroia. Sign me up.
Ok, you guys ready for the grand reveal? I’m a little nervous. There is no way I’m writing this article all over again so if the grade is ugly, the grade is ugly. Here we go.
Wooooo! Let’s go, baby! Oh, come on, you didn’t actually think you were going to beat me, did you!? And if you are saying you did, then you must have cheated because this is the single greatest fantasy team ever assembled. Let’s take a deeper look as Draft Wizard enables us to do.
Yawwwwn. Oh, how’s the view looking down there Tyler Glasnow, Byron Buxton and Lourdes Gurriel Jr (all on Latos Intolerant)? Now for the categories:
It might not look that pretty but that’s the recipe to a first place team, folks. Now, we can do better, of course, but you have to employ my cheat codes. I’m not joking either; fantasy baseball has cheat codes. Keep an eye out for my articles on my Marmol (cheat code) Strategy, Pocket Rockets (cheat code) strategy, Bichette (cheat code) Strategy and the Moneyball (cheat code) Startegy over the next month. We’ll be getting a 100 A+ in all of those and I fully guarantee it. Until then, enjoy all of your mock drafts. I’m gonna go do another one before I head off to the pizza buffet.
Oh, by the way, you might find it useful to know that you can sync the Draft Wizard platform with your life draft. It’s pretty much amazing, people! Get your practice in now so that when you transition over to the real deal, it will feel like sitting in a war room with all of your favorite experts.
The Final Roster
- 1.12 Trea Turner – SS
- 2.1 Nolan Arenado – 3B
- 3.12 Yordan Alvarez – OF
- 4.1 Chris Sale – SP
- 5.12 Chris Paddack – SP
- 6.1 Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
- 7.12 Trevor Bauer – SP
- 8.1 James Paxton – SP
- 9.12 Eduardo Escobar – 2B/3B
- 10.1 Elvis Andrus – SS
- 11.12 Franmil Reyes – OF
- 12.1 Miguel Sano – CI
- 13.12 Emilio Pagan – RP
- 14.1 Brandon Workman – RP
- 15.12 Salvador Perez – C
- 16.1 Willie Calhoun – OF
- 17.12 Lance McCullers Jr. – SP
- 18.1 Avisail Garcia – OF
- 19.12 Keone Kela – RP
- 20.1 David Peralta – OF
- 21.12 Ryan Braun – OF
- 22.1 Chris Archer – SP
- 23.12 Ryan Pressly – RP
- 24.1 Dellin Betances – RP
- 25.12 Nick Madrigal – 2B/SS
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