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15 Overvalued & Undervalued Players (2020-21 Fantasy Basketball)

Dec 10, 2020

Are fantasy managers sleeping on Collin Sexton?

Inevitably, it happens. Fantasy draft season comes into focus, and some players are overvalued. This may be because of pedigree, name recognition, or recency bias. Conversely, some players are overlooked. They may not make flashy plays or be household names, but they ultimately out-perform their draft position. We asked the experts to name their top overvalued and undervalued players for the 2020-21 season. Here’s what they had to say.

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Who is the most overvalued player for fantasy basketball in 2020-21?

Kevin Durant (BKN – F): ECR 15
He comes with plenty of upside, but there are just too many unknowns to trust Durant with a borderline first-round pick this season. We haven’t seen him in an NBA game since he ruptured his Achilles tendon way back in Game 5 of the NBA finals in June of 2019. Back then he was part of a nearly unstoppable super team in Golden State. Now he’s teamed up with Kyrie Irving and some young talent on a Brooklyn team hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. He needs to be on a roster in every fantasy league, but unless he falls into the third round he won’t be on any of mine.   -Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)

Jaren Jackson Jr (MEM – F,C): ECR 54
There’s no questioning Jackson Jr. has a ton of potential and has only just scratched the surface of what he’s capable of. The problem is he’s coming off meniscus surgery in August and will be out “a minute” according to executive Vice President of basketball operations Zach Kleiman. He’s currently the ECR’s 53rd-ranked player, ahead of guys like Jusuf Nurkic, D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward. Even if JJJ comes back sometime in January, he doesn’t offer enough counting stats in category leagues outside of points, threes, and blocks. He only averaged 4.6 rebounds per game as a PF/C and shot just 46.9 percent from the field. I want my centers averaging upwards of 8-9 rebounds per game and to shoot upwards of 50 percent from the field. Additionally, JJJ can’t stay out of foul trouble, averaging 4.1 fouls per game, leading him to play just 28.5 minutes per game. That will have to change in order for Jackson Jr. to reach his full potential. I’m hesitant to spend a 4th-round pick on a one-dimensional player coming off a knee surgery.  -Adam Koffler (FantasyPros)

John Collins (ATL – F,C): ECR 20
I don’t understand the Collins hype at all. He is clearly worse when playing at the four, where he will likely be stuck all season long. Not only is Capela going to be healthy for the whole season, but the Hawks also added Gallo and Okongwu to take minutes away from Collins. I fully expect his minutes to fall under 30 per game and would not be surprised if they trade him this season as he is in the final year of his contract.  -Ethan Masel (TheFantasyBulletin)

Kemba Walker (BOS – G): ECR 57
Kemba Walker will be sidelined through the first week of January after receiving a stem cell injection in his left knee. He continues to be hampered by a knee issue which bothered him most of last season. The Celtics signed veteran PG Jeff Teague to help alleviate Walker’s workload. The 30-year-old currently has an average ADP of 40, which I believe is way too high to draft a player currently dealing with a knee issue. Expect Boston to put Walker on a “load management schedule” and look for the Celtics’ PG to play roughly 30 minutes per game. Walker averaged 20.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 3.2 triples over 56 games in 2019-20. He is a top-flight point guard, but the season hasn’t even started and Walker is already scheduled to miss time. I would pass on him at that high draft price and take D’Angelo Russell, Fred VanVleet and De’Aaron Fox, all who have an ADP currently similar to Walker.  -Brad Camara (FantasyPros)

Draymond Green (GSW – F): ECR 55
Despite the absences of both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Green didn’t take a huge step forward in his statistical production. In fact, he saw a dip in most categories, despite being an experienced vet on a young, rebuilding team. Green’s rebounds and assists represented five-year lows, while his blocks were the lowest mark of his career. Green improved in his free-throw shooting (75.9%), but he shot career lows from the floor (38.9%) and three (27.9%). He dealt with a recurring knee injury that likely contributed to his struggles, but there’s not a lot to get excited about for the 2020-21 season. Green will have increased competition for scoring, rebounding, and facilitating with Curry, Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre in the mix, and the fact remains that he’s a poor shooter. Green is a guy that I’m avoiding this season.  -Zak Hanshew (FantasyPros)

James Wiseman (GSW – C): ECR 93
Let’s preface this with saying that James Wiseman was the correct choice for the Warriors, and he should contribute right away. But let’s not forget that the kid has only played three college games, and the last time he was on the court in a game was last November. The Warriors look to have an 11-man rotation, but three of those 11 are bigs. The most likely scenario is that Wiseman, Kevon Looney, and Marquese Chriss each get around 15 minutes per game.  -Michael Waterloo (FantasyPros)

Clint Capela (ATL – C): ECR 54
Clint Capela joined the Hawks at the trade deadline last season but didn’t take the court due to a season-ending heel injury. After having plenty of time to rehab, he’s reportedly ‘ready to go’ for the season opener. However, the Hawks’ revamped roster of young talent mixed with veterans will impact Capela’s production and minutes on the floor. While a double-double is still possible, he won’t see the 15.9% usage rate as he did in Houston. Additionally, his role in the Hawks’ offense as a screener, rim protector, and rebounder will make it hard to replicate his 13.9 PPG with 13.8 RPG from last season. He’ll still be a valuable center this season, but with his ECR at 54, he’s going too high for the expected output.  -Dan Titus (FantasyPros)

TJ Warren (IND – F): ECR 52
Real NBA fans know that TJ Warren has been giving teams buckets for the last couple of seasons and his ascension to stardom during the Orlando Bubble wasn’t all that shocking. Unfortunately, Warren offers little else outside of his elite shot making ability as he has only averaged 4.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game over the course of his six-year career. I don’t believe Warren will be a bust in fantasy this season, but with a current ADP of 55 between ESPN and Yahoo drafters, it seems that folks are selecting him with the hopes that he will recreate his epic bubble performances once again. Now that Victor Oladipo and Domantis Sabonis fully healthy, it will seemingly be difficult for Warren to garner enough usage to reach those numbers. Besides, I would much rather have Christian Wood (ADP73) over Warren any day.  -Alex Burns (FantasyPros)

Who is the most undervalued player for fantasy basketball in 2020-21?

Mitchell Robinson (NYK – C): ECR 46
Anybody that’s played NBA DFS regularly the past two seasons knows how productive Robinson has been with his time on the court over his first two seasons. He averaged 9.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks in just 23.1 minutes per game last season. He also led the entire NBA in true shooting percentage with an impressive 72.6%. Now that the Knicks have parted ways with veteran Taj Gibson, he’s primed to see a full allotment of minutes as the starting center in New York and should be in line for a third-year breakout. At his point next season he won’t be ranked outside the top-30 in ECR if things go right in New York.   -Aaron Larson (FantasyPros)

Markelle Fultz (ORL – G): ECR 98
The Orlando Magic version of Fultz looked totally different than the guy drafted first overall by the 76ers in 2017. He was confident and played to his strength of getting to the cup. He even increased his free throw percentage from 56.8 percent to 73 percent. This season, he’ll no longer have to stave off D.J. Augustin for playing time, as the veteran point guard has signed with Milwaukee. There was a stretch of 15 games last season between mid-January and the All-Star break where Augustin was out, and here’s what Fultz produced; 13 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.5 steals in 32 minutes per game. He’s currently the ECR’s 97th-ranked player, but I think Fultz could finish as a top-75 guy this season with the opportunity ahead as the full-time starting point guard for the Magic.   -Adam Koffler (FantasyPros)

Collin Sexton (CLE – G): ECR 87
Collin Sexton, aka ‘Young Bull,’ will outperform his ECR of 79 this season. Talk about efficiency, the third-year guard averaged 20.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists with splits of 47.2/38.0/84.6 in his sophomore campaign for the Cavaliers. I’m bullish on the young bucket getter who ‘hulked up’ his 6’1″ frame this offseason to thrive as the primary scorer and ball-handler for Cleveland this season. He has yet to miss a game in his career and boasted a 26.4 usage rate last year – higher than the likes of CJ McCollum, DeMar DeRozan, Jamal Murray, and Jrue Holiday, who all carry higher ECR’s. The Cavs made no moves to improve their offense, giving Sexton more opportunities to shoulder the load and crack the top-50 by the end of the season.  -Dan Titus (FantasyPros)

Great shooting numbers and has improved every year of his career. He is in line for a score-first role, but he probably won’t do much in assists although he has that capability too. He’s still only 21 and has tons of room to improve. I believe in Sexton’s talent, and he has the ability to be one of the best scorers in the league.  -Ethan Masel (TheFantasyBulletin)

Tobias Harris (PHI – F): ECR 51
Tobias Harris is one of the reliable players in fantasy and he delivered once again in his first year in Philadelphia. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.8 triples while shooting 80 percent from the charity stripe over 72 games. The 28-year-old is an efficient shooter (47 percent from the floor in 2019-20) as well as durable, playing in at least 76 games or more in his five seasons. His current ADP on Yahoo! is 60, but I would make the case that Harrris is a top-45 option. I prefer him over LaMarcus Aldridge, Robert Covington and Draymond Green, all who were selected ahead of him in the latest drafts. Despite sharing the rock with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, Harris is one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts as he continues to produce night and night out. If fantasy managers can get him around the 60th pick, it’s quite the bargain for a borderline top-40 player.  -Brad Camara (FantasyPros)

Jusuf Nurkic (POR – C): ECR 47
Nurkic only appeared in eight games last season, but he made quite an impact in his limited appearances. The big man stuffed the stat sheet with 17.6 points, 10.3 boards, 4.0 dimes, 2.0 blocks, and 1.4 steals across 31.6 minutes. Aside from the rebounds, all of these numbers were career highs. While just a small sample size, the stats represent Nurkic’s abilities on both ends of the court, and as long as he’s healthy for the 2020-21 season, he could be a top-10 player. Still only 26 years old, we likely haven’t seen his ceiling yet.  -Zak Hanshew (FantasyPros)

Desmond Bane (MEM – G): ECR N/A
How would you describe Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen? Good players? Fine players? Rotational players? They are more of the latter, which is great news for Desmond Bane. Bane is already better than Allen, and is on-par with Brooks. The Grizzlies got a steal with the last pick in the first round, and he’s going to outperform his ADP this year.  -Michael Waterloo (FantasyPros)

OG Anunoby (TOR – F): ECR 108
Anunoby has steadily improved his game in each of his first three seaons and is fresh off a 2020 campaign where he put up 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.4 steals in just under 30 minutes per game. The 6-7 forward also shot 39 percent from three, a six-percentage point increase from his sophomore year. Heading into his fourth professional season, Anunoby is likely to be given as many minutes as he can handle as the Raptors’ look to regroup after losing a few key peices in the offseason. His improved three-point stroke and elite defense make him a terriffic late-round selection in fantasy drafts. With a current ECR of 90, I would feel comfortable selecting Anunoby over guys like Danillo Gallinari and Eric Bledsoe. -Alex Burns (FantasyPros)

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Thanks to all of the experts who contributed! Be sure to check out their other work and follow them on Twitter.

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