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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/7)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (4/7)

This slate is going to be crazy! We have nine games in total making up this busy Wednesday card, with six teams playing the second half of a back-to-back set. That could cause chaos on this slate, and we haven’t even discussed the laundry list of injuries we have to navigate through. We’re going to try our best to guess who will play and who won’t, but you need to keep an eye on the news up unit opening tip!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

It’s tough to know what the position depth will look like with so much news still to drop, but the center position is stacked once again. The good news is that there’s value across the board, too, making it easy to get studs into your build. The guy we can’t fade is Kyrie Irving, though, and I believe that should be the first name clicked in every lineup out there. We’ll discuss that more later on, but here are some value plays to help build around him!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Terry Rozier (CHA) $8,400
Scary Terry is in the midst of a breakout season, and it’s scary to think how much he’ll be asked to do with LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, both sidelined. With those two off the floor this season, Rozier leads the team with a 29 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. We love that against an Oklahoma City roster that’s a shell of itself, and we’ll discuss that more later on.

LaMarcus Aldridge (BKN) $5,600
I would never have anticipated Aldridge finding his way back into this article, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden both out, LA is one of this offense’s focal points. In his first three games with the Nets, Aldridge is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game across 28 minutes a night. We can’t overlook that with LaMarcus facing a 29th-ranked Pelicans defense at just $5,600.

Robert Williams (BOS) $6,800
This guy is starting to become another regular in my articles, and it’s easy to understand why. He’s one of the league leaders with 1.4 DK points per minute and has seen his role rise exponentially since the Daniel Theis trade. In fact, he’s scored at least 32 fantasy points in all five starts he’s made en route to a 41-point average.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $6,500
The Hawks are currently missing John Collins, Cam Reddish, and De’Andre Hunter, forcing Bogey into the biggest role of his career. Over his last four games played, Bogdanovic is averaging 37 minutes a night and has scored at least 46 fantasy points in three of those. That makes this price tag really hard to understand, especially with Memphis surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

Chuma Okeke (ORL) $5,800
Orlando said goodbye to their season when they traded Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier, and Al-Farouq Aminu. The good news is that it opened up a ton for Okeke, playing like their best player since the rebuild. He’s now scored at least 29 fantasy points in all six starts he’s made, averaging 35 DK points per game. The best part of this might be the matchup, though, with Washington ranked 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Myles Turner (IND) $6,300:
Turner may as well be written in Sharpie in my articles. This guy has been underpriced all season long, averaging over 31 fantasy points per game for the season. That alone makes this price tag hard to figure, especially in such a tasty matchup. Turner and the Pacers face a Minnesota team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, and it gives Myles a match-up with a defensively inept Karl-Anthony Towns. We also can’t overlook the injuries in Indiana, and we’ll talk about that shortly.

Marcus Smart (BOS) $6,000
With Kemba Walker likely sitting in the second half of a back-to-back set here, we love Smart. He’s been good with Kemba anyway, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in 12-straight games. He’s also got a 30-point average in that span as well, making the price tag all the more shocking. New York can be a tough matchup, but we don’t mind it with the increased role and dirt-cheap price tag.

T.J. McConnell (IND) $5,100
There are many key injuries in Indiana right now, with Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis both nicked up. If either of those guys sits, McConnell should easily play 30 minutes. If you look at the 14 games, he’s played at least 28 minutes, T.J. is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game. We already discussed the fantastic matchup with Minnesota, surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

James Johnson (NOR) $5,500
Here we are again with another dismantled roster. The Pelicans currently have Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, and Steven Adams on the injury report. It’s taken JJ from out of the rotation into one of their key playmakers. He’s scored at least 28 DK points in the three starts he’s made and can definitely duplicate that against a 24th-ranked Nets defense.

Ty Jerome (OKC) $4,400
If you think New Orleans has some issues, wait until you see this injury list. Oklahoma City has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford, Kenrich Williams, Darius Bazley, and Luguentz Dort all sidelined, leaving this roster very thin. That’s huge news for a guy like Jerome, averaging 21 DK points per game across 26 minutes a night over his last 12 games. Those 26 minutes could be the floor here, and we surely cant overlook that at this price tag.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day partner-arrow

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,100: It’s pretty insane how good Russ has been over the last two months. He’s scored at least 50 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 13 games, posting an insane 59-point average in that span. That streak extends even longer than that, and facing a G-League roster like Orlando only adds to his intrigue here.
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,900: Don’t look now, but Doncic is making a late push for some MVP votes. He’s reached 47 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 14 games, generating a 50-point average in that span. What we love here is the matchup, though, with Houston owning one of the worst defensive ratings in their historically bad losing stretch.
  • Kyrie Irving (BKN) $10,200: Irving is my favorite play of the day, with Durant and Harden both expected to miss this game. Kyrie has a 35 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor while providing an absurd 1.6 DK points per minute. That was on full display on Monday when Irving dropped 57 fantasy points in yet another gem. That’s his seventh game with at least 47 fantasy points, and he’ll easily reach that here against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. UPDATE: It sounds like Durant will return, but we still think Irving is a great play with KD’s minutes likely limited.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,800: Ayton had his best game of the season on Monday, but it’s overshadowing a rather ugly stretch prior. He failed to crack 37 fantasy points in 13 of his previous 15 games before that gem which is unacceptable from someone in this price range. We hate that against a Top-5 Utah defense.
  • Aaron Gordon (ORL) $6,500: Gordon has a usage rate of 16 percent since joining Denver, and it’s becoming clear that he’s going to have to do more with less if he wants to thrive from a fantasy perspective with the Nuggets. That decreased role makes him really scary against a Top-10 Spurs defense.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,500: You could have seen this coming if you read my articles regularly. Ingles is averaging 30 DK points per game as a starter but is barely cracking a 20-point average as a reserve. That’s what we expect from him here, and it certainly won’t become any easier against a Top-5 Phoenix defense.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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