Ask the Analysts: 16 Players to Avoid (2021 Fantasy Football)

Our analysts have teamed up to provide you with a list of players to think twice about this fantasy football draft season.

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1. Who is your quarterback to avoid for fantasy purposes in 2021?

Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Forget the retirement talk for a minute. Even if Rodgers does play for the Packers, his touchdown rate was 9.1 percent in 2020. If we dial that number back to Rodgers’ career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would’ve finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn’t offer mobility anymore, and his offense isn’t what we’d describe as “pass-heavy.” Even if we knew he was playing this year, QB8 should be the price.
– Mike Tagliere

Matt Ryan (ATL)
Is Ryan a good NFL QB? Absolutely. However, our outlook for him from a fantasy perspective needs to be slightly different from our NFL view. Ryan did have some appeal earlier this off-season, but with Julio Jones now out of town, I’m staying completely away from the veteran QB. With a WR corps that lacks proven depth, it isn’t easy to find a path for how Ryan finishes as a top-12 QB. He might be able to provide you with a solid floor each week, but the path for upside isn’t there. At a current ECR of QB14, that’s too high for me to get on board when comparing him to some of the other QBs that are further down that come with more rushing potential.
– Kyle Yates

Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Jalen Hurts has the potential to end up as a top 10 fantasy QB, but by no means is it necessary to draft him as such. You’re passing over steady QB producers like Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Ryan Tannehill when you do. Hurts is learning a new offense with a new HC/OC, and there are no guarantees that everything clicks for the Eagles’ offense right away. Everyone wants to be on the next big thing, but sometimes people ignore the downside. The offensive line didn’t make enormous strides either. A Superflex reach, paired with a solid low-end QB1/high-end QB2, is a better risk than single QB leagues.
– Joe Pisapia

Joe Burrow (CIN)
To make it absolutely clear, I love Burrows’ talent and expect him to be a dynamic fantasy quarterback for years to come. But maybe not this year, or at least, I’m not willing to use the draft capital necessary to find out if he will be. All the reports are positive, but Burrow tore both his ACL and LCL in November and so expecting him to be ready to go and 100% in Week 1 seems overly optimistic to me. The Bengals want and expect Burrow to be their franchise quarterback for the next decade, they’re not a Super Bowl-caliber team right now, and they were uber cautious with Joe Mixon last year. And even if Burrow is a full-go for Week 1 – which, again, I am not expecting – chances are Burrow won’t be as mobile and may be hesitant. I love the talent and the player, but I won’t have any shares this year.
– Dan Harris

2. Who is your wide receiver to avoid for fantasy purposes in 2021?

Kenny Golladay (NYG)
Going to a new team is never easy, especially for someone from a team lacking any depth of pass catchers. It was easy for him to get eight-plus targets per game, especially when Marvin Jones was hurt. Now going to the Giants, who have a bevy of options, including Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, and Saquon Barkley, is going to be tough. To be fair, you don’t go out in free agency and sign someone like Golladay to give him five targets per game, but he’s not going to get the consistent targets he got in Detroit, and the targets he does get aren’t going to be as efficient coming from Daniel Jones.
– Mike Tagliere

Mike Evans (TB)
What Evans has done throughout his career is truly incredible. In his seven seasons in the NFL, Evans has never finished with less than 1,000 receiving yards in any given year. With that being said, having him on your fantasy football roster is an absolute roller coaster. Last season, Evans had numerous games where he only had one to three receptions, but he was able to come down with a touchdown on several occasions to save his fantasy output. Evans brings some massive upside based on his size, skillset, and talent. However, fantasy managers need consistency from their WRs if they’re being drafted at a premium price. With the plethora of receiving options in this offense in 2021, plus the addition of Gio Bernard and return of OJ Howard to this lineup, Evans is going to have to outperform his expected TD output by a drastic margin to return value on his current price. I can’t get on board with him as a high-end WR2.
– Kyle Yates

Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Tyler Lockett had a career year in 2020, but the issue was how inconsistent he was in 2020. Lockett scored 46 percent of his fantasy points (PPR) in just three games last season. He had eight of his ten touchdowns in these three games and over 90 yards in each of them – in the other 13 games, he topped 70 yards just once.
– Joe Pisapia

Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)
Beckham is perpetually on my avoid list, but not because I dislike him as a player. He’s immensely talented and could be a stud in the right situation. But Cleveland is not that situation, and we’re going to see Beckham’s ADP rise slowly as we get closer to draft season because fantasy managers can’t divorce themselves from what they saw once upon a time. Beckham averaged around 10 targets per game in his pre-Browns career – he’s lucky if he’ll average seven now. He’s averaged fewer than 12 games per season over his career (and he played through an injury that clearly affected his performance in his one full season since 2016). And the Browns threw the ball just 46% of the time in the red zone, the eighth-lowest in the league. Beckham will need to not only stay healthy the whole year but turn out a ton of explosive plays where he finds the end zone to justify his draft capital.
– Dan Harris

3. Who is your running back to avoid for fantasy purposes in 2021?

David Montgomery (CHI)
Sure, Montgomery finished as the RB4 last year. There were many factors that led to that, particularly the injury to Tarik Cohen, freeing up tons of targets in the passing game. Over the course of Montgomery’s short career, he’s played 19 games with Cohen and 12 games without him. In the games with Cohen, he averaged 2.32 targets per game. In the 12 games without him, that number rose to 4.92 targets per game. Well, Cohen is back, and the team signed Damien Williams, who’s a better receiving back than Montgomery. On top of Cohen missing, the Bears had a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, playing against the Packers twice, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars to close out the season. Did you know that Montgomery was the RB20 after 10 weeks (before starting that schedule)? He’s a fine low-end RB2, but don’t go about your day thinking you’re getting a steal in the fourth round or anything.
– Mike Tagliere

Leonard Fournette (TB)
Fournette came alive in the NFL Playoffs last year and was a key component to Tampa winning the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, this doesn’t provide us with much more clarity on this backfield heading into 2021. Jones is still a part of this rotation – and he actually outproduced Fournette in the regular season last year – while Gio Bernard has also been brought in to be a reliable pass-catching option. Fournette could continue his success from the postseason and truly take over this starting job, which would instantly put him in the top-15 conversation. However, there’s as equally strong of a possibility that Jones cleans up his fumbling problems and takes over. Adding Fournette to your roster certainly has its appeal, but his price needs to be appropriate. As a RB3 on your roster, you can absorb the potential fallout if Fournette doesn’t pan out. Anything more than that though is playing with fire.
– Kyle Yates

D’Andre Swift (DET)
I love the talent of D’Andre Swift, but the concussions he dealt with last season give me serious pause at his current high low-end RB1/high-end RB2 ADP. The Lions’ offense is likely to be very underwhelming. All of these factors make Swift a potential fantasy liability in 2021.
– Joe Pisapia

Miles Sanders (PHI)
If we believe that Nick Sirianni is going to use Sanders as his workhorse back, then I’d be all over him in drafts, particularly with Jalen Hurts’ mobility likely to open up rushing lanes for him. But I don’t, and so I’m just not. Sanders has been “the” guy in his career on some occasions, but there’s nothing to suggest he will be this year. The Eagles not only drafted Kenneth Gainwell, but they also signed Kerryon Johnson and Jordan Howard. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s enough depth that the tea leaves are there to suggest that Sanders is not going to get a workhorse role, particularly given Sirianni’s background in Indianapolis. Sanders has talent, but not the opportunity for me to take him where he’ll go in drafts.
– Dan Harris

4. Who is your tight end to avoid for fantasy purposes in 2021?

Kyle Pitts (ATL)
He should be a very good player for a very long time, but we’ve seen highly-athletic tight ends have trouble out of the gate before. In fact, rookie tight ends, in general, have trouble producing. I want to ask you a question: Since 1998, how many tight ends do you think have topped 627 yards in their rookie season? Two of them. Both of those tight ends saw 115-plus targets, a number Pitts isn’t likely to see with Arthur Smith as the new head coach. It helps that Julio Jones has left town, but don’t forget that ultra-athletic Jonnu Smith saw just 65 targets in Smith’s offense just last year, and he wasn’t a rookie. Is there a situation where Pitts finishes as the TE5? Sure, but by drafting him there, you need him to in order to justify where you drafted him. Draft players with built-in equity, not those who are being drafted at their ceiling.
– Mike Tagliere

T.J. Hockenson (DET)
Is Hockenson incredibly talented? Yes. Is there a case to be made that he can lead this Lions offense in targets? Absolutely. However, the expectations for Hockenson right now are sky high and it’s hard to see how he returns value. The scoring opportunities are going to be essentially non-existent for this team and we could see them at the bottom of the league in overall plays ran. Last season, with a plethora of receiving weapons and one of the game’s greatest offensive minds, Jared Goff only threw for 20 touchdowns. It’s hard to see how he even hits that number here in Detroit with this receiving corps. Hockenson can soak up targets this season, but if he doesn’t score plenty of touchdowns, he’s going to disappoint fantasy managers that drafted him as a top-5 TE. He’s being drafted at his absolute ceiling right now, and that’s something I can’t get on board with, unfortunately. I’m avoiding Hockenson this season if his ADP remains around where it is right now.
– Kyle Yates

Mike Gesicki (MIA)
I expect Tua Tagovailoa to make progress in 2021, however with Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle and returning veterans, I don’t see the upside for target share when it comes to Mike Gesicki. He’s been a fantasy “breakout darling” for a few years now, and frankly, I don’t see that path for him 2021 emerging.
– Joe Pisapia

Mark Andrews (BAL)
Andrews is a fine player, but the bottom line is that if I miss one of the big three at the tight end position, I’m probably just waiting until later in my draft to select one. Andrews gets targeted frequently in the red zone, but the Ravens don’t pass enough to make a true breakout possible. Baltimore passed just 45% of the time last year, by far the lowest rate in the league, and just 46% the year before, also the lowest rate in the league. Even if the team does lean into the pass more (which they likely won’t), they’ve added Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins, which would siphon targets away from Andrews. I’ll pass at the price.
– Dan Harris

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