Fantasy football draft season is here! Today our writers are sharing their favorite WRs and RBs outside the top 30 who could become WR1s and RB1s by the end of the year.
Rankings referenced are from our 0.5 PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).
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Q1. Which player outside the top 30 WRs has the best chance to finish as a WR1 for the season?
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) ECR: WR43
Williams has a fantastic opportunity to explode this season. The talent has never been the question when talking about Williams. It’s always been about staying healthy and on the field. His playing style always increases the risk of getting injured. While he hasn’t missed a ton of games the past two seasons, he’s always been banged up and battling injuries throughout the year. Williams already has a season where he has topped 1,000 receiving yards (2019) and a season with 10 touchdowns (2018). This is the year where he puts everything together and he obliterates his ADP. Yes, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler are still there, but the loss of Hunter Henry opens up more targets for each of them. With the offense projected to take another step forward and Justin Herbert getting more acclimated to the NFL, Williams is a great target. He’s currently ranked as the WR43 in Half-PPR, which seems extremely low. Williams wants to prove he deserves a big contract, and I think his play this year with warrant that contract.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) ECR: WR36
Samuel has turned into the perfect post-hype sleeper following a 2020 campaign plagued by injuries. The final eight games of Samuel’s rookie year (2019) were a sign of glorious things to come. In those eight games, he played more than 72% of his team’s snaps each games. He flashed as a target-hog, deep threat, yards after the catch machine and running back… yes, running back. Through 22 career games played Samuel has 22 carries for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns. Let’s get back to him as a receiver. In 2020, despite a truncated season due to injury, Samuel led the NFL in yards after the catch per reception. In 2019, as a rookie, he ranked second in YAC per reception. This is a recipe for efficiency, something we as fantasy players love. He can be very successful with limited touches, making his floor extremely high. However, Samuel has the potential to finish as a WR1 because 49ers OC Kyle Shanahan is one of the most creative offensive minds in football. Between carries and receptions, if Samuel can average 8-10 touches per game, his ceiling is limitless.
– TJ Horgan (@TJHorganTV)
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN) ECR: WR33
Boyd is one of the most overlooked players in fantasy football. He was the 23rd ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2019 with 177.9 points in 16 games. He accomplished that with Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley at quarterback. Last year, he was the 18th ranked wide receiver through 10 games playing with rookie Joe Burrow. He had 127.9 fantasy points before Burrow was lost for the season in Week 11 and the Bengals offense was crippled as a result. I think the feeling in Cincinnati is that Tee Higgins was fantastic last year and the Bengals added Ja’Marr Chase in the first round this year. That means that Boyd is no longer going to have a big role in the offense. Keep in mind that this team’s starting tight end is C.J. Uzomah. They do not have a star tight end to work the middle of the field and someone is going to have to haul in those tough possession catches from the slot. I think Boyd will easily see more than 100 targets this year and he does have 16 touchdowns over the last three seasons. He is a decent red zone threat, especially if he ever was able to play with a quality quarterback for an entire season. Even though he may not be the biggest name in the offense, he has been a dependable fantasy player. If Burrow takes the next step and this offense throws the ball 600 times, there is a chance that Boyd ends up being the most valuable Bengals receiver, especially in PPR and Half PPR formats.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU) ECR: WR35
Cooks isn’t the sexiest name out there, but how many people are aware that he was WR15 last year? Should Deshaun Watson actually suit up and play QB for the Texans this season, Cooks’ value would skyrocket. Even if Watson isn’t the QB, the Texans will need to throw the ball to someone. The other receivers on the roster currently include Chris Conley, Anthony Miller, and Keke Coutee – not exactly a group that keeps opposing DBs up at night. Watson looked Cooks’ way on 25% of his passes last year, and that was with veterans Will Fuller and Randall Cobb on the roster. His target share could be even higher this year. It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s still only 27 years old and has eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in 5 of his 7 seasons as a pro. He could be a steal at his current ADP.
– Scott Youngston (@fantasymutant)
Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here
Q2. Which player outside the top 30 RBs has the best chance to finish as a RB1 for the season?
Ronald Jones (RB – TB) ECR: RB33
Jones is a talented football player and deserves more praise. In 2020, he rushed for 978 yards and seven touchdowns while catching 28 passes for 165 yards and one score. In Half-PPR scoring, this helps running backs who don’t catch as many passes, since a reception doesn’t count as a full point. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is elite, and he proved he can produce. While we don’t like injuries and projecting injuries is risky, if Fournette were to go down, Jones has a major opportunity to put up RB1 numbers. The Buccaneers are going to be a top-five offense, so that means Jones will get a lot of red-zone looks. He also has the ability to break for a long touchdown, evident by his 98-yard touchdown last season. If Jones can separate himself from Fournette early in the season, he has the ability to finish as a top-12 running back if everything breaks right for him.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)
I’m not going to pick a handcuff and play the “If player X goes down…” card, though it is valid. Jones has a path to the RB1 slot without an injury to a Tampa Bay RB. His competition is not as fortified of a fleet as one may think. Leonard Fournette shined in the playoffs, but didn’t make waves in free agency. The Bucs brought him back on a $1 million base salary deal. Giovani Bernard may cut into a few third downs, but he’s turning 30 this season and doesn’t offer a ton of upside. RoJo, the 38th-overall pick in the 2018 draft, averaged 3.0 yards after contact per attempt in 2020. That’s a higher rate than Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb and any running back who carried the ball more than 100 times. He’s the best running back on a team with an elite offensive line. It’s also unlikely the Bucs will be getting blown out in many games, meaning game script will be conducive to running the ball as often as they’d like.
– TJ Horgan (@TJHorganTV)
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) ECR: RB40
I feel like I write about Trey Sermon every week, so I wanted to go with another option this week. The Baltimore Ravens backfield was a mess last year with Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, and Edwards all having a big enough role to make sure that no Ravens running back had a lot of fantasy value. From Week 1 to Week 6, Dobbins was the 39th ranked fantasy running back, Ingram was 40th, and Edwards was 49th. Once Ingram was inactive in Week 7, he never regained his timeshare. Ingram had 22 carries the rest of the season as the backfield moved to a timeshare between Dobbins and Edwards. Nine of those carries came in a Week 17 game against the Cincinnati Bengals, a game won by the Ravens 38-3. From Week 7 to Week 17, Dobbins was the 12th ranked and Edwards was the 21st ranked back. Edwards should easily outperform his 40th ranked ADP among RBs, and if Dobbins were to miss any time or Edwards can slightly improve on his six rushing touchdowns, there is a chance that Edwards ends up sneaking into the RB1 discussion. The Ravens will be a committee this year, but at least it should not be a three-headed one that leaves fantasy managers frustrated with one of the best rushing offenses in the league. Edwards has a ton of upside at his current ranking.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) ECR: RB31
Carter doesn’t fit the profile of a typical workhorse back in the NFL. In fact, he split carries at North Carolina with Javonte Williams. But consider his competition for backfield touches on the Jets right now: Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and La’Mical Perine. Only Coleman has a track record of success in the NFL, and he’s now 28 years old and is coming off of a season where injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 63 snaps. Combine this with the fact that the Jets will be trotting out a rookie QB, who may need to check down to an RB often as he adjusts to the speed of the NFL. Enter Carter, who was an excellent pass catcher in college and is reputed to be strong in pass protection. He may end up the field for a lot of snaps this season – and generate a lot of touches in the process. Touches lead to success in fantasy football, particularly in PPR leagues. By all accounts, Carter was impressive in camp and he looked the part in his first preseason game. He should have the opportunity to be a strong fantasy asset this season if he can capitalize on it.
– Scott Youngston (@fantasymutant)
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