NFL Daily Fantasy Stacking Advice: Week 16 (2021)

Greetings from week 16 of DFS Stacking. This weekly series aims to identify some of the more favorable stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel, both cash and tournament contests. Need more help setting some lineups? Make sure to check out our DFS Lineup Optimizer for quick and easy assistance to build some winning lineups.

This article is focused on covering Sunday’s main slate of games.

As more and more seasonal redraft fantasy players find themselves out of playoff contention, the focus shifts to DFS. Get an edge by keeping up with the DFS content here and FantasyPros.

Author’s Note: Please check player’s notes for any injury or potential Covid list updates. With the recent exposure rates spiking, it is recommended to check when setting lineups and again before respective games kick-off.

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For the most up-to-date betting odds, lines, and totals make sure you’re checking out BettingPros.

Week 16 Team Totals

Stacks to Target

DraftKings

Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR) $6700 / Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR) $9100 

Matthew Stafford, good at football, great at throwing said football to Cooper Kupp who is good at scoring with football. End of analysis.

Okay, here is the deal; Cooper Kupp has performed at an unstoppable almost unfathomable pace this season. He just keeps getting it done. However, he is coming in at such a hefty price tag that he is probably best utilized in cash lineups where the chalk plays are far more forgiving. The cost offset is helped out by Stafford’s relative salary. The best news here is that Kupp is the most consistent producer at the position this season and he simply feels bust-proof at this point.

For those looking for some variance, Van Jefferson is in a good bounce-back spot this week against a weak secondary that is allowing the most fantasy points to the position this week. He comes in at a reasonable $5500 salary and does not require a pile of targets to return value. Last week’s 2/23 line can be dismissed as it was his worst outing since week six.

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) $5900 / Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) $6200 / Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN) $7100

The Baltimore Ravens have allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight games this season. They have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for over 400 yards, one of which was Joe Burrow, who lit them up for 416 yards and three touchdowns back in week seven. Meanwhile, Burrow is averaging the ninth-most DK points per game among quarterbacks this season. The Ravens are far more stingy against running backs and have only allowed one running back to eclipse the 100-yard mark this season. (For the curious, it was Dalvin Cook back in week nine, when football still seemed normal.) This means more dialed-up pass attempts for Burrow, who has been aggressive in pushing the ball this season.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are separated by a dwindling $200 at this point. When Chase cools down, Higgins heats up. When Higgins cools down, Chase manages to haul in a deep shot or two for big gains and/or a walk-in score. Chase has the edge here based on his big-play ability and he did hang 201 receiving yards and a score on them in their last tilt. That being said, Higgins has over 100-yards receiving in three of his last four games with two scores over that span. Multi-lineup users should hedge their rosters and alternate these two in those lineups. For the truly contrarian pick, Tyler Boyd is only $5100 and did lead this core in most receiving statistics last week.

Tom Brady (QB, TB) $7400 / Antonio Brown (WR, TB) $4900 / Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB) $6200

Okay, this one is an absolute steal but could turn up a little chalky due to how bleeping obvious it is. Tom Brady is priced fairly, as the third-highest salary on the slate. Outside of last week’s dud, he has been solid and averaging 24.6 DK points per game. Last week’s dud is actually an important facet of why I like him so much this week. Brady hates losing. He is going to come out mad and determined. The Panthers should be on notice of a bloodthirsty Brady on the prowl.

The Bucs are down Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week. But…Antonio Brown returns to the lineup. On a points-per-game basis, Brown is fourth among wide receivers but comes in at $4900, meaning there is almost zero risk to putting him in lineups. For reference, he is $7K on FanDuel, making him a much better option on the DraftKings side. In the five complete games he has played this season, he has only fallen below 24 DK points in one, and in that one, he still had double-digit points. Brown is a locked and loaded option despite being on the chalky side. At the cost, he needs to be in lineups, stacked or not.

Rob Gronkowski has looked like Gronk of old since returning from a rib injury. With Godwin and Evans being out, it only improves on the already healthy target share. Fire him up for target volume and red zone appeal.

Honorable Mentions:  Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) $6400 / Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) $5100 / DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) $6000 – Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) $7200 / Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) $7700

FanDuel

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) $8400 / Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) $7700 / Jared Cook (TE, LAC) $5100

Setting up as a solid foundation for cash games, Justin Herbert could easily finish as the QB1 for week 16. He has the second-highest FD points per game average on the slate and is facing a Houston Texans defense that has allowed six quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Herbert has thrown two or more touchdowns in all but four games this season.

Keenan Allen has 10 or more targets in all but four games played this season. That trend will continue again this week with Austin Ekeler expected to be sidelined on Covid protocol. Allen will spend much of his day toying with a familiar face in Desmond King who is allowing 13.1 yards per reception in coverage. Expect the volume to be consistent with what we have seen all season and a score would not surprise me with Allen’s route-running prowess.

Jared Cook has spent equal time looking good and bad for this offense. When he’s good, he’s good. When he’s bad, he’s dropping passes like 2020 Diontae Johnson. Here’s why I like Cook this week. At his $5100 salary, there is little risk and less expectation for a big performance. That translates to a lower roster percentage. The Texans allow the eighth-most fantasy points to the position and have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends this season. Lastly, Cook operates well in the red zone. He will not put up huge numbers, but he will get a red-zone look or two in this game.

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) $7700 / Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) $5900 / DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) $5900

When putting together a tournament roster, a key factor is finding a way to hedge upside against risk. Is Jalen Hurts known as an amazing passer? No, but he has shown above-average capability and positive development in this department at various times throughout the season. The rushing floor adds both stability to his floor and upside for better than his average performance. In a matchup against the New York Giants, he could easily put up another high-floor game that is a great setup for a tournament play as he is always a threat for a rushing score.

Inserting Dallas Goedert into the tight end slot is not point chasing. He has put together back-to-back high-end performances in his last two games and done so with two quarterbacks. The Giants have surrendered two touchdowns to the position in the last three weeks and six total on the season. Goedert is not as heavily targeted in the red zone as other tight ends but still offers a high target floor. Over the last two weeks, he has seen 15 targets and turned them into 240 receiving yards and two scores. Expect another healthy target dose this week in a soft matchup and at a salary that reduces risk.

The other stacking option is DeVonta Smith, who is averaging 8.89 FD points per game and is under 5% expected roster percentage this week. Smith has the most difficult matchup on the field, squaring off with James Bradberry, but has the skillset and target share to still be solid at his cost. Due to the matchup, Goedert is the preferred stacking option here, but the contrarian stack is Smith who remains the most heavily targeted player on this offense.

 Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) $6800 / Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL) $7200 / Russell Gage (WR, ATL) $6700 / Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) $5900

For a tournament stacking option, Matt Ryan and company host the Detroit Lions who are expected to be without Jared Goff. Despite missing Goff, expect the Lions to rely a little heavier on their run game and still manage to put points on the board against the Falcons defensive unit.

Likewise, expect both Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis to have a slight uptick in rush attempts against a Lions defense that struggles to stop the run. Patterson has put up double-digit FD points in three of the last four games despite seeing his utilization shift to a more traditional running back role. With the success they’ve had utilizing his hybrid skillset, and a matchup that favors a rushing attack; Patterson becomes an intriguing play that could easily outperform his salary.

Some words used to describe Russell Gage‘s fantasy season could include: non-existent, okay, good, vanished, okay, then good again. Gage has made it a point to baffle fantasy rankers throughout the season. However, he is averaging 14.8 FD points per game over the last four weeks and seemingly has caught his stride of reliable production. Ryan is going to have to throw a bit in this one and Gage has been the more reliable target in the passing attack over the last several weeks.

A reasonable pivot is Kyle Pitts who has seen at least five targets since week three. Pitts has not scored double-digit FD points in the last eight games played. He will get targets and have some yards, but seemingly has a capped ceiling.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen (QB, BUF) $8500 / Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF) $7500 / Dawson Knox (TE, BUF) $6100 – Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) $7100 / Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN) $7100 / Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) $6500

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John Hesterman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.